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PokerDane
11 Jun 11 19:58
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Aug 10
| Topic/replies: 13,366 | Blogger: PokerDane's blog
Expecting to be shot down in flames, but here goes.

I hold 100,000 Lloyds shares at an average of 48.25p.  The current share price (11th June 2011) stands at 47.00p

Many shareholders are extremely critical of CEO António Horta Osório, and who can blame them after suffering almost a 25 percent decline since Mr O took the black horse's reins on March 1st.  My personal view, however, is that he is taking exactly the right approach for the future strength of the bank; getting all the shít he inherited out in the open and starting afresh.

If the share price dips below 45p I will be buying anther tranche.  I predict somewhere north of 60p by the autumn.

All views welcome.
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Report Mc Moonbeam June 11, 2011 9:04 PM BST
Have bought at 47p

Still gutted i missed the Original dip in 2009 but i can't really see too much of a rise
The longer they trade so low the less optimistic i'll become but hope for a late year rally too
Things are different this time around though and they're really worth ... about 22p imo
Good look with your 100k though Happy
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR June 11, 2011 11:03 PM BST
Personally I wouldn't touch any bank share with a bargepole.
Who knows what is really going on in these institutions.? Transparency it sure ain't.
Report superoo June 16, 2011 7:48 PM BST
When the sovereign debt defaults begin then they will be 22p
Report Rollo Tomasi June 18, 2011 8:34 PM BST
You should be OK because they have a magic carpet. They can sweep bad debts under it.

They have a £66bn bad bank.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8236060/Andy-Cumming-interview-Theres-plenty-of-good-in-a-bad-bank-if-you-look-hard.html

Although it says £300bn in here
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/10/453391/next-up-for-barclays-a-bad-bank/

They are now taking equity stakes in failing companies like HMV because they cannot pay their loans.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/British-Taxpayers-To-Become-Shareholders-In-HMV-As-Part-Of-Rescue-Package-For-Ailing-Retail-Chain/Article/201106116006972?lpos=Business_First_Home_Article_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_16006972_British_Taxpayers_To_Become_Shareholders_In_HMV_As_Part_Of_Rescue_Package_For_Ailing_Retail_Chain

The FSA say banks have switched lots of people onto interest only loans because they cannot afford their mortgages, even though interest rates are low. So I assume Lloyds have as well
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8546531/Cash-strapped-families-switch-60bn-worth-of-mortgages-to-interest-only.html

I'm sure if any gambler on here could ignore their losing bets and just count the winning ones they would do very well. What could go wrong?
Report Banwana June 18, 2011 9:04 PM BST
Transfer of wealth from West to East is the big problem for Lloyds. They are behind the other UK (rApist) banks in my opinion.
Report Live4 June 20, 2011 12:19 AM BST
I would dump them sooner rather than later.  They have significant exposure to Irish debt and the banking sector will be hit hard as the Eurozone continues to implode.
Report the big bossman June 20, 2011 12:46 AM BST
help
1. trying to be clever i brought lloyds shares at 1.30
2. 2 weeks later they were 30p
3.they had 2 rights issues since then missed the both because being sick

now 8k down wht should i do
Report SonofDunc June 24, 2011 11:06 PM BST
@ Rollo Tomasi
I have a mortgage with Lloyds with very good LTV (around 40%). Asked to switch to interest only and they wouldn't let me, although did extend term of the loan.
I hold several thousand shares myself, similar to you bossman. I'm sitting tight for now although can only see the share price going lower for the foreseeable.
Report Live4 June 27, 2011 11:08 AM BST
Lloyds TSB shares are toilet paper.  Sell them now while they are still worth something. 

Sitting tight for what?  Ireland and Spain to default?  The UK housing market to implode? 

Don't take my word for it - do some research and you will see.
Report PokerDane July 1, 2011 1:52 PM BST
Quite an eventful week for Lloyds it must be said.

As anticipated, though, Mr Horta Osório's stragic review has turned the tide in the SP's favour.

An update on my position:

In addition to my initial investment of 100,000 shares at 48.25p I followed through with my intention to purchase a second tranche (as stated in the original post) of 100,000 shares at 43.25p to average down to 45.75p.

The current SP stands at 50.75p (1st July 2011). 

My plan remains unchanged: I predict somewhere north of 60p in the autumn.
Report PokerDane July 6, 2011 11:15 AM BST
Bad few days for Lloyds (and the banking sector in general) given the sentiment over Portugal's downgrade.

SP currently stands at 47.92p.
Report gooroo July 9, 2011 10:38 AM BST
Would rather put money on a blackjack table than in this company at least you can see what is happening,Lioyds and RBS should be going to vegas with penn and teller,the smoke and mirrors they perform.
Report Mc Moonbeam July 15, 2011 6:17 PM BST
Call me sinister but wouldn't they all be quite happy if the stock crashed  Plain
Report Pokermonster July 16, 2011 2:14 PM BST
20:00 July 15th (Reuters).

The European Banking Authority (EBA) on Friday released detailed information on 90 banks, such as how profitable they expect to be under a two-year recession and their exposure to sovereign debt.

Here are some key details on top banks in Britain from the data, which the EBA said has been reviewed for consistency and will provide "unprecedented" transparency on the industry. Some banks and officials opposed the release of confidential data. Banks listed in descending order of exposed debt.


NET DIRECT EXPOSURE TO GREECE:

RBS: 1.16 BILLION EURO

HSBC: 1.18 BILLION EURO

BARCLAYS: 93 MILLION EURO

LLOYDS: ZERO


NET DIRECT EXPOSURE TO IRELAND

BARCLAYS: 407 MILLION EURO

RBS: 402 MILLION EURO

HSBC: 144 MILLION EURO

LLOYDS: ZERO


NET DIRECT EXPOSURE TO ITALY:

RBS: 4.65 BILLION EURO

HSBC: 4.45 BILLION EURO

BARCLAYS: 2.92 BILLION EURO

LLOYDS: 32 MILLION EURO


NET DIRECT EXPOSURE TO PORTUGAL:

BARCLAYS: 1.17 BILLION EURO

RBS: 208 MILLION EURO

HSBC: 140 MILLION EURO

LLOYDS: ZERO


NET DIRECT EXPOSURE TO SPAIN:

BARCLAYS: 5.496 BILLION EURO

HSBC: 574 MILLION EURO

RBS: 379 MILLION EURO

LLOYDS: 62 MILLION EURO
Report PokerDane July 18, 2011 1:24 PM BST
Latest price 43p.

Another very poor week for Lloyds investors despite the encouraging stress test results printed above.

I'm still holding 200,000 shares at an average of 45.75p.
Report Menelaus July 18, 2011 1:50 PM BST
It's those "encouraging results" that are precisely the problem. There's been some nice pieces published in the Telegraph by Harry Wilson about the non-stress stress tests the last few days, you should try to see if you can get your hands on them. And it gets worse from there.
Report Whippet July 18, 2011 6:35 PM BST
Is this seriously the best investment you could find?

I wish you the best of luck, but I fear this is going to turn out like the guy who bought BP at 545p on the way down.
Report PokerDane July 18, 2011 7:53 PM BST
No, sir, this holding represents only a fraction of a diverse portfolio. 

Very few benefits to be gained from aftertiming, however, so merely chose to publicise this particular stock as it represents my most recent investment.

Many thanks for your contribution and good wishes.
Report SonofDunc August 2, 2011 5:27 PM BST
Half year results coming up this week - Estimates of a loss of £3bn Sad

Can't see that helping the share price.
Report PokerDane August 3, 2011 1:53 AM BST
Indeed.

I'm suffering a terrible run of misfortune lately.  I thought my luck had changed last week when I found an unopened wage packet in the street, but the lazy bugger had taken three days off.
Report G1_Jockey_4 August 4, 2011 1:49 PM BST
lump on imo

but you will have to take a long term view.
Report Rollo Tomasi August 4, 2011 5:07 PM BST
35.4p
Report xmoneyx August 5, 2011 11:22 PM BST
bank of america shares tanked ---contagion everywhere
Report Whippet August 19, 2011 1:20 PM BST
28p
Report xmoneyx August 19, 2011 2:38 PM BST
remember when i thought £2.50 was a bargin

got out at £2

a falling knife is painful
Report bobby2424 August 19, 2011 4:56 PM BST
this is heading to 10pLaugh
Report Whippet August 19, 2011 6:19 PM BST
hbos has destroyed this bank.

on a similar note, someone bought $2 million bank of america $4 november puts the other day. currently $6.98.
Report G1_Jockey_4 September 27, 2011 12:15 PM BST
i think long term is defo the view here.

short term lloyds knew they were taking on huge liabilities with hbos.

they did the moral thing imo

just be patient and reap the rewards in a few years.
Report what happened to grosjean game September 30, 2011 1:16 PM BST
I am done over too, I bought alot at 36.34 will be lucky to hit 37p a share for a few months or years :(
Report cush October 2, 2011 11:30 PM BST
I doubt that Lloyd's action's, re HBOS, were based upon morality.

Self-preservation, is a much more likely explanation.
Report 2honest4ere October 2, 2011 11:48 PM BST
Just thought about approaching DRAGENS DEN i stick my 200k in each of them do the same, form a bank we then offer the MUGS attractive interest before withdrawing our investment in full lets say wages,then invest MUGS money in any forthcoming ideas.HEADS WE WIN ,BONUS TIME, TAILS WHO F---ING CARES any body care to join in
Report cush October 3, 2011 12:03 AM BST
One of the worst book's that I have ever read, in my life, was one called rich dad, poor dad.

Very early on in the book, the author stated that no matter how badly your business was doing, you should still pay yourself a wage.

I stopped reading any further, at that point.

So many of our societie's current financial problem's can be traced back to that sort of insane and corrupt thinking.
Report Whippet November 2, 2011 5:56 PM GMT
even the ceo has thrown in the towel now.

He looked into the abyss and didn't like what he saw imo!!

R.I.P Lloyds, a good bank ruined by hbos. Gordon brown has a lot to answer for imo.
Report IBUKKAKEDURMUM November 21, 2011 10:44 PM GMT
my word. only  up from here? lol
Report cush November 21, 2011 11:59 PM GMT
The Lloyd's boss moved the insanity up a notch.

Make sure that you get a Golden hello , then pay yourself a wage, before they realise that you are not up to the job.

Job done from his point of view. Game over from mine.

This is nowhere near good enough thinking to have any real,long term, sustainability.

Buy to let was bad enough and still is.

Now, it just get's worse with very move.
Report cush November 21, 2011 11:59 PM GMT
The Lloyd's boss moved the insanity up a notch.

Make sure that you get a Golden hello , then pay yourself a wage, before they realise that you are not up to the job.

Job done from his point of view. Game over from mine.

This is nowhere near good enough thinking to have any real,long term, sustainability.

Buy to let was bad enough and still is.

Now, it just get's worse with very move.
Report Mister E November 22, 2011 11:51 AM GMT
IMO Lloyds was a well run bank; Not paying lunatic bonuses, sharing profits with shareholders, and not prone to the mad lending that did for RBS, Northern Rock, and HBOS.
The merger with HBOS seemed to bypass "legislation" on monopolies; and as far as I could see was done pureley to save HBOs after the taxpayer had saved the other two basket cases.
Instead of one poorly run bank biting the dust; we are now seeing a relatively well run bank dragged down too.
Thank you Gordon.
Report Rollo Tomasi November 22, 2011 4:02 PM GMT
06 Aug 10 PokerDane's 
An update on my position:
In addition to my initial investment of 100,000 shares at 48.25p I followed through with my intention to purchase a second tranche (as stated in the original post) of 100,000 shares at 43.25p to average down to 45.75p.

Today they are 22.70p so 50% less.

Another bet perhaps?

200,000 at 22.70 to average it at 34.22?
Report Whippet November 22, 2011 7:27 PM GMT
when the uk housing market collapses these shares will be worthless.
Report Mc Moonbeam November 23, 2011 1:53 AM GMT
I can't believe how ludicrous this stock has become although read my first post and i called 22p spot on

I traded wildly with my first buy 47p- 46p- 44p -41p .. then bailed out before they crashed to 30p

Bought back in again last week @ 27.44p thinking they couldn't get much worse but this stock is just so sickening to watch .. setting fire to my cash would probably be quicker , less stressful , and make more sense Sad

Rollo are you not getting seriously worried they'll never rise again  ?

Personally i'll be happy with trading out again if they rise a little from here as i can't take much more of this the way it is

gl all
Report Rollo Tomasi November 23, 2011 3:50 PM GMT
I am not worried about Lloyds not rising.

Must confess I was not long ago. I bought some in August but sold them in October Wink

I don't feel tempted to buy again now. I felt dirty supporting a company like that, their adverts make me want to puke. Money isn't everything is it?
Report nathan147 November 23, 2011 9:03 PM GMT
Whippet...Why do you say that Lloyds are toast if the housing market goes???

Mainly due to the HBOS takeover and all the toxic debt there ?...or something else?
Report xmoneyx November 24, 2011 2:03 PM GMT
copy this thread for future students harvardLaugh
Report d13phe November 24, 2011 4:01 PM GMT
I dont understand why anyone would touch this stock when you can buy smaller less know companies that currently hold more cash in the bank than their stock price is worth

No one knows what Lloyds holds and I fear we never will
Report Mc Moonbeam November 25, 2011 7:25 PM GMT
Money isn't everything no mate ..

However i don't intend to give it away to these crooked spivs ..

So .. i've topped up at my bargain basement price of 22p Cool

Average now 25p .. though i probably bail again if it rises next week Happy
Report Rollo Tomasi November 27, 2011 4:27 PM GMT
Last week the government decided to use our taxes to underwrite mortgages. Today to use our taxes to underwrite business loans. It seems in the future the banks are not going to be allowed to make any losses at all. Just profits from their lending with little or no risk attached. Rather than a sudden bailout later, as any mortgages/loans go sour, they just get our money on the quiet.

How do I go long bank bonuses?
Report Menelaus November 27, 2011 8:47 PM GMT
I beg to differ. These guarantees, bailouts and assorted other government schemes will not be paid back through "our taxes". They'll be paid back through......drum roll please...inflation. Which is a different kind of tax levied upon all of us by an unelected money cartel controlling the money supply, but I digress.......



"Just profits from their lending with little or no risk attached."

Isn't this what banks should be doing in the first place through proper risk assessment? It's the gambling with the public's money levered to infinity that needs to stop, not profits through lending.
Report Rollo Tomasi November 28, 2011 1:02 PM GMT
Banks have done risk assessment and decided not to lend. Now the government is taking the riskiest part of the lending instead.

Take the new council mortgage scheme that Lloyds participate in. FTB's 5% deposit, councils 20% deposit, banks only incur any loss after a 25% fall. Councils have been given triple AAA ratings because of the willingness of the government to be lender of last resort.

Result = banks lend, banks make profits, anything goes wrong government bails banks out indirectly via councils.

Now it's businesses as well.
Report Menelaus November 28, 2011 2:36 PM GMT
Here, read this so I don't have to retype the whole thing again, it explains why THEY HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH BAILOUTS, GUARANTEES AND VARIOUS OTHER POLICY INTERVENTION SCHEMES:

Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 1298 22 Nov 11 17:12 
melv, the system is failing......because it was designed to fail from the outset. The bankers know that, the public evidently still doesn't.

Money is created as DEBT.

Debt is a claim upon future GROWTH.......that is what the interest is.

Exponential growth is needed in the current monetary system to pay the coupon. That's how compounded interest gets paid.

The minute real organic growth stops, the system collapses. The government in order to prolong the status quo......BORROWS ON YOUR BEHALF whether you like it or not. This kicks the can down the road for a while. The problem being that this kind of borrowing leads to malinvestment, capital misallocation and more debt that can not be serviced. Accelerate the rate of the demise by the madness of morphing that debt into 40 or 50 times the money in an ever increasing pyramid of debt, layer on top of that the disappearance of cheap oil which inhibits real growth, and...........boooooom, the ponzi system collapses onto itself.

This is where we are at now, it's just that most people haven't clued in yet.

Hyperinflation.....is how this ends. What confuses people are the bouts of deflation in between.

This stuff is not rocket science FFS.



Yes, privatizing the gains and socializing the losses is what happens when the banking cartel captured government while the overwhelming majority of people slept....
Report Menelaus November 28, 2011 2:43 PM GMT
And did you see that little nugget in the OECD report today? They are calling on the Bank of England to resume quantitative easing and for the government to stand ready to recapitalize banks again.


Their only interest is preserving the status quo. The only solution they see to the problems caused by economic contraction and an insolvent banking system is the same failed policy response they advocated and tried before.....PRINT MONEY.

The public be damned.
Report Menelaus November 28, 2011 2:53 PM GMT
AND.PRINT.THEY.WILL.
Report Rollo Tomasi November 28, 2011 3:51 PM GMT
I don't see what I have said is wrong. I know all about QE inflation theft thank you and how it might end but this thread is about Lloyds. You seem to want to argue what I have said about banks and turn it into something else because you have an hyperinflation agenda.

I am not going to reply to you ever again because you seem like some sort of troll.
Report Menelaus November 28, 2011 4:48 PM GMT
Beyond expressing surprise that the government continues to borrow to support the system, that banks privatize the gains and socialize the losses, and incorrectly assuming "our taxes" will pay for all this nonsense, your post was spot on.
Report Mc Moonbeam November 29, 2011 9:39 PM GMT
Sold at 24.5p on the Bounce for a small loss Cool

Hoping for 22p again soon .......

Might even make a profit one of these days Plain
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