Buy the Dow here for 3m horizon

It's an interesting one. I tend to think the end of QE2 has already been priced in so there shouldn't be a massive sell off from here. On the other hand, I don't think there's much reason for a rally. So I reckon it will be pretty flat, till winter when benanke starts hinting at QE3.

Lowering of earnings expectations ect, 11600 and 1250 were the fukushima lows, I'm expecting another shock to the system, you'd need a perfect world for 13000 and Qe3.

Here is comes, guys...  :)

After six weeks down and almost 8 down days in the last 9, we were due for a pop. Enjoy it while it lasts but nothing has changed. All surges ought to be sold until further notice from that bearded chap who works  out of the Eccles building.

Here it comes indeed, but I'm not sure that's exactly how you meant it... :)

All surges ought to be sold until....well, you know the rest of the story.

If you shorted into the close yesterday using a 3X leveraged ultra short ETF, you just received about a 5pc return on your investment in less than 24 hours.

If you did it with a spreadbet instead, then you didn't have a tax liability either.

Today could be a big drop (daily chart) but I will buy again after Beardy does his bit tonight.  Weekly chart looks strong to me.

[smiley:crazy] now what do charts look like?

Goring - you must now concede that major technical levels have been taken out and a summer lull will drive equity indices down. The soverign debt issues will fuel the downward spiral.  Q4 may present buying opportunities.

I was wrong.

No shame in that, the man who admits he is wrong, is usually the man who makes long term profits in trading.

Are you now looking to go short? or stay on the sidelines?

Goring, all the indicators you sighted were wrong but not necessarily your DOW 13000 by autumn call. There are still a number of scenario's playing out that could make you prediction quite correct actually. Things can change very quickly. If the deflation/bank balance sheet recession that is starting to brew just under the surface accelerates - and I think it could if the Greek public wins it's fight against the troika - then the ensuing implosion in the financial system balance sheets will require lots and lots and lots of money printing by the world's liquidity provider (the FED) to plug. In which case the US markets will levitate again for a while given a weaker dollar. So yes, I would have never traded your call, nor am I suggesting you do now, but be very aware that just about the only CERTAIN thing now days, in these unstable/high volatile conditions the FED/central banks have created, sharp swings in direction will be the norm. After all, this is what unstable means.

At any rate, hat tip to you for laying it all out, all cards on the table, no aftertiming.

You couldn't of predicted this BS today that they have done with oil, but its a mugs game these markets are so manipulated. I cant wait until it all goes t*tsup, this move today just shows how desperate they have become, bernanke is a fool.

Bernanke is no fool as you so bluntly put it.
There are well founded reasons for all he does.
You just don't happen to agree with them.
That doesn't make you necessarily smart does it ?

Frog - A sharp tongue is no indication of a keen mind.

HTH

Totally. Tks.

But it does with Menelaus.
So how do you account for that.
Just an aberration ?

Menelaus, eh what do you mean all the indicators were wrong?

Anyway, looking again at the weekly (Dow), the trendline is intact.  Look at the Mar-09 low, Jul-10, and we're still not below that line.  There's a small H&S Feb-May-Aug forming which supports it, as does the negative sentiment.  As Pierre says above, SPR release wasn't predicatable, but the falling crude will also support equities (Airlines particularly shot up today unsurprisingly [pardon the pun]).

Frankly, I still see a month or two of good very good returns here and won't be shorting this.  My guess at the moment is Oct for a sell.  I am dip-buying gold again today as it sold off only on margin liquidation.

Goring
Charts are history recorders.
That's all. Though I agree that looking at them can and should give you a pretty good idea of the consensus chartist viewpoint, for what that is worth. Probably has some good contrarian value though.

I'm looking to buy anything commodity related soon, but will play it by ear for now. Think the best buying opportunity might come later in the summer.

Define "soon".

I hate commodities at the moment myself, when rio is below 3500 and FCX is under 40 then maybe but not until.

Right, I'm long again. :D

Well with rio at 4400 and the dow at 12200 its looking another excellent opportunity to short imo, markets are being far too complacent about Greece. Even if vote passes i fancy data to keep coming in badly with QE ending ect and oil at 93/109 and rising.

[>o] well i got stopped out :( ridiculous market, i think the chinese must be buying stocks.

Weekly call option doing nicely at the moment.  Think we have a good few days even weeks of gains coming now.

No, the Chinese are not buying stocks, the FED is through it's surrogates. They even invented a name for it, they call it "wealth effect". Reaganomics trickle down nonsense on steroids. Fighting the FED will always lead one to financial ruin. So....DON'T FIGHT THE FED. Accept that the real economy has disconnected from the market as a pricing mechanism and.....GO WITH THE FLOW. And this will wor****il one day it doesn't.

But I assure you that THAT day is not upon us yet, not likely to be for a while as long as those with hard assets (most important of which is OIL) continue to willingly accept freshly printed fiat paper in exchange for those assets, as long as no one is allowed to fail, as long as the ponzi fiat monetary system continues, as long as the debt/credit circle jerk between CB's and sovereign countries continues unabated, as long as bad debts on bank balance sheets are hidden with the blessing of CB's and government regulators, as long as any "market negative" events continue to receive little attention in MSM, as long as "austerity" is successfully forced into an unwilling public, as long as there's wealth still to be transferred to the financial elites. Yes, a long way to go yet.....

....work until one day it doesn't....

I have no idea why the post was "edited" like that

Just go sailing for the next decade or so.
Wind in the hair. No worries.

Menelaus




Date Joined: 03 Feb 05
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"as long as there's wealth still to be transferred to the financial elites."

none of that wealth is going to be transferred to you is it melly.Since you cashed in at the rock bottom.

  where are you now melly- at the firm, in new york or fixing up  the bike trails at your french estate?

Benny trust me, we got it the first time, you don't have to keep posting to convince us.


Mrben     Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 3620 16 Jun 11 05:06
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