Tradefair & Financials
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where are the we not in a bubble crew.
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Replies: 17
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You can't burst something that was never in a bubble to start with.
Recent losses are entirely down to 3 margin hikes in the space of a week, not any change in fundamentals. This will be back over $50 by the end of the year. |
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i keep on educating you whippet.
this is dropping in price, do keep up. |
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It has started going back up now. Please provide evidence that this is in a bubble (Please note that all bull markets have corrections, so you can't use the recent drop as a reason). Thanks.
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do they really?
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"After 3 days of exceptionally heavy demand our stock of silver in the vault has been temporarily exhausted. We have further substantial deliveries scheduled this week." from silver bullion site i use.
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chart wise, it looks bad now. same pattern as the collapses in the past. if you compare it to the drop after the 2003 rally, it looks like it would take few yrs before we reach same highs as before. which prbably mean it could recover only at a time when the world could be finally out of trouble and no one needs safe havens anymore. of course this is only based on technical analysis, but still one q. for whippet: how can you think that the previous rally wasnt a bubble? or you think that it s normal to have a price going up 5 folds in 2 yrs ( not to mention the double in 3 mths ), even compared to all other commodities which are up 70-100% each? have you seen the rhino horn shaped last leg of the rally?
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why would you want to use technical analysis in a market that is obviously ****? We know for a fact that the move downwards was because of repeated margin hikes; likewise there is something very dodgy about the near vertical move upwards. However if you look at the fundamentals medium-long term, they are very good. Very much still a buy whilst in the low-mid $30s.
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r i g g e d that should say.
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the fundamentals were good ( according to the "buyers" )for the tech stocks in 2000, for the chinese index in 2008, for all the assets which behaved exactly like silver did in the last 2 weeks. i said look at the chart of 2003, but could have said look at many other charts of the past, including the abovementioned. charts of disorderly human behaviour, at first sight at least. the thing you need to ask yourself, if silver dropped 35% because of a hike in margin requirements, doesnt it look clear to you that a massive speculation was the likely driver of the valuations?
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werent you anyway an advocate of looking at charts to see clear signs of a market that had topped and turned? i remember a conversation you had with someone else who wanted to short the spx to early?
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The move to 49 was ridiculously fast, a lot of profit taking and hedging for miners took place at 49, I remember a miner ceo saying he wouldn't think of hedging till 50 and thats what happened. $35-40 is probably fair price at the moment until QE3 then expect a move to $75.
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Clearly the near vertical rise in the last couple of months was based on massive speculation, however you obviously haven't been paying much attention if you think the rise from september last year was for the same reason. There is no denying that the long term fundamentals are good for all PMs. Unless you would care to enlighten us as to why not?
I would imagine in the short term this will establish support and consolidate around its 200ma. So low $30s. Most of the hot money (on both sides) has now disappeared from this market, and frankly you would have to be an idiot to start betting big on this at the precise moment, which is why I am favouring consolidation. This isn't my pocket talking either here btw. I don't have any position in silver anymore (other than a few mining shares), and will look to buy in again once it starts consolidating, whenever that may be. |
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All these fancy words being bandied about, I'm almost impressed................... almost.
Charts, speculation, bubbles (what is a bubble anyways, can someone define it for me?), margin requirements, consolidation, it all sounds so impressive at least in projecting an image that one knows what they are talking about. But no one has called what really just happened in the silver market: FED PRICE FIXING through proxies and captured regulators (CFTC). That's what really went on, supply/demand fundamentals be damned (silver supply has never been tighter - anyone try to buy a 100 oz bar lately?) and charts be damned (the silver chart never looked better despite the huge move up that preceded it). There are no free markets now ONLY PRICE FIXING. We've probably never had free markets, it's just that now the manipulation is so blatant, it's become obvious even to the uninitiated. Everything else is eye wash. Anyone who thinks these markets in general are correlated to fundamentals is delusional and anyone who thinks charts can be useful in this environment, I would suggest switching to reading chicken entrails, they might turn out to be more predictive. PRICE FIXING in coordinated FED/CB/Banks market manipulation, this is the name of the game now. How else does JPM, GS and BAC combined have only one day (yes, 1, not a typo) of trading losses in an entire quarter? This is like a nine sigma event, UNLESS you know the market moves in advance. Five margin requirements increases in eight days. Has this happened before for any other commodity? We've witnessed some spectacular run ups in other commodities in the recent past, how come the CME didn't step in with "risk management" of this magnitude then? Does CME's action not nullify their testimony in their submission in the CFTC inquiry on position limits in late 2010? Why silver? Is silver so important a commodity, with a such a significant impact in the overall health of the global economy (cough, cough, OIL) that CME had to step in with such an unprecedented and drastic move to stop the "speculation" and "risk of default" ? Why? Have margin requirements decreased that silver have been "corrected" by over 30%, including a $6 fall all in the space of 12 minutes? Why not? It's PRICE FIXING, that's why not. What to do? Ignore the noise, keep buying physical at any price between $30-35 and forget about it. The price of silver (and gold) will eventually be determined by "failed to deliver" on COMEX, not by massive paper silver naked short positions by JPM and HSBC solely aimed at driving the price down. The FED has done true silver investors a favour, take advantage of it, if you can find physical silver in any significant quantities with reasonable premiums BUY IT. And, wipeout, tanking a position in silver miners is NOT taking a position on silver. If you need help understanding this just say so and I'll be more than happy to point you in the right direction (Hint: have a look at the HUI/PMs correlation in the last 24 months). |
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 Poor old burger flipping Melanie , she as much about silver as mt next door neigbour knows about nuclear physics.Stick to long winded rants about the meat content in a Mcdonalds burger , far cloer to your specialised field of expertise. |
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1 i only said that the chart now looks as bad as it looked in previous times we had these sudden up and down swings. read whatever you want in it. or nothing, who cares.
2 considering you didnt want to exchange any more words with me, why the fk did you feel the need to intervene here. is it the urge to have the last word on anything so compelling? 3 from your last post anyway...all these fancy words being bandied about, I'm almost impressed................... almost, of course. i could reply to most of your post sentence by sentence but it s all pointless. you re not interested to have a discussion with anyone, and so i am, uninterested to have a discussion with someone as rude and arrogant as you. stay in your nirvana of complete knowlegde ( or utter ignorance, if you d ask me ). i would appreciate if you abstained from littering the forum threads on which i contribute. that s all you wanted anyway. jw. |
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Chill mate, I never realized this thread was your own personal domain or for members only otherwise I wouldn't have posted. It obviously goes without saying though that when you say "forum threads on which that I contribute", you are using the word "contribute" loosely.
Menelaus |
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Noticing a breakdown in the CRIMEX spot price today and the physical, bullionvault 35.5 crimex 34.3, im just going from memory but I don't recall the spread being so big in the past.
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