Tradefair & Financials
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I've been posting here for a few years and trading for over 15 years.The last 6 of those seriously.In that time I have gone to various seminars, a few training courses, been in a few "trading groups" made up of different personality types.
I started of losing at trading and made all the usual mistakes. But I have seen many guys make substantial amounts.Early on I met a guy who was working for a bank in sydney.He was an options trader. Not long after I met him he invited me to a party because he had just made $ 120,000 on some shorts. Not long after that he made $ 160,000 on some longs. He stayed with that bank for 2 more years and then married an indian girl I think, moved over there and I never heard from him again. I asked him," how do you do it? He replied " I go with the thing thats most likely to happen NOW, not months from now"
Ive seen a more than a few lose substantial amounts.I've seen lives ruined.
About 6 years ago I decided not to join any more groups or attend any more seminars. I dumped ALL my trading contacts. I was at the time, managing some money for other people.I dumped that too.
Basically I have never looked back and the last 3 years in particular have been, almost spectacular.
But Ive noticed a few things.Many People don't like it when you make a lot of money trading, they don't regard it as "work"
Most people think you will lose it all sooner or later. Many people simply don't believe you ever made anything from trading and that you not just bul****g them but your straight out lying.Some of them can get quite angry about it.
But what Ive noticed the most is the DIFFERENCE between those who win and those who lose.Its got nothing to do with a better system, better analytical skills, more capital or anything like that. Its an ability to
1.Recognize whats going on AND not fall into what they are being told by the media
2.Quickly taking action to take advantage of whats going on
3.Just as quickly change what they are doing to adapt to any market changes.
The third one is probably the most crucial.
Winners will change their mind and tactics according to what is going on.They are never married to one idea.
Those that lose have some common characteristics
1.They believe they are right
2.they NEED to be right.The need to be right outweighs the need to make a profit.
3.They pretty much swallow the media driven advice/line/theme etc
4.they lack the ability to interpret information- rather they want to be spoonfed answers
5.They ridgidly stick to one idea regardless of reality.
6.They refuse to change their ideas.
7.They get angry with anyone who dares challenge them.
I have a "trading mate " who fits this catergory prefectly.In the 12 years I have known him he has lost his marriage to trading losses. 3 jobs because he spent all his time looking at markets.His car, any money he has, most of his friends- since he has borrowed money from them , lost in markets. He is flat broke, rents,has never had a girlfriend in the time I have known him, works 60 hours a week and is still in debt.
Yet last week he sent me a chart declaring that " the bear market has started and will last 2 years".His chart has the SAME lines drawn on it as he was showing me 10 years ago.The same methodology and the same conclusions. This guy just does not get it!
If you look at the microcrosm of this forum you can see who the winners are and who the losers are.
In my previous "doomsday" thread posters are still arguing the hyperinflation, printing money, its all gonna collapse claptrap.Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary they still BELIEVE.A "financial tsumani" is coming
The whole doomsday concept has been dead in the water for some time now but they are still arguing for it. Its as laughable as it is tragic.
They have zero flexibilty.They have trouble when some one says they were short gold but now they are long.These losers think that because you were once short the nikkei you must always be short the nikkei.That you were short the AUD therefore all your trades are shorting the AUD.
To the winners this way of thinking is both annoying and amusing. But in the end is seems to be pretty pointless attempting to help these losers.They will forever continue like that I guess.
Meanwhile the winners just look forward to the next trading week.
Enjoy.
I started of losing at trading and made all the usual mistakes. But I have seen many guys make substantial amounts.Early on I met a guy who was working for a bank in sydney.He was an options trader. Not long after I met him he invited me to a party because he had just made $ 120,000 on some shorts. Not long after that he made $ 160,000 on some longs. He stayed with that bank for 2 more years and then married an indian girl I think, moved over there and I never heard from him again. I asked him," how do you do it? He replied " I go with the thing thats most likely to happen NOW, not months from now"
Ive seen a more than a few lose substantial amounts.I've seen lives ruined.
About 6 years ago I decided not to join any more groups or attend any more seminars. I dumped ALL my trading contacts. I was at the time, managing some money for other people.I dumped that too.
Basically I have never looked back and the last 3 years in particular have been, almost spectacular.
But Ive noticed a few things.Many People don't like it when you make a lot of money trading, they don't regard it as "work"
Most people think you will lose it all sooner or later. Many people simply don't believe you ever made anything from trading and that you not just bul****g them but your straight out lying.Some of them can get quite angry about it.
But what Ive noticed the most is the DIFFERENCE between those who win and those who lose.Its got nothing to do with a better system, better analytical skills, more capital or anything like that. Its an ability to
1.Recognize whats going on AND not fall into what they are being told by the media
2.Quickly taking action to take advantage of whats going on
3.Just as quickly change what they are doing to adapt to any market changes.
The third one is probably the most crucial.
Winners will change their mind and tactics according to what is going on.They are never married to one idea.
Those that lose have some common characteristics
1.They believe they are right
2.they NEED to be right.The need to be right outweighs the need to make a profit.
3.They pretty much swallow the media driven advice/line/theme etc
4.they lack the ability to interpret information- rather they want to be spoonfed answers
5.They ridgidly stick to one idea regardless of reality.
6.They refuse to change their ideas.
7.They get angry with anyone who dares challenge them.
I have a "trading mate " who fits this catergory prefectly.In the 12 years I have known him he has lost his marriage to trading losses. 3 jobs because he spent all his time looking at markets.His car, any money he has, most of his friends- since he has borrowed money from them , lost in markets. He is flat broke, rents,has never had a girlfriend in the time I have known him, works 60 hours a week and is still in debt.
Yet last week he sent me a chart declaring that " the bear market has started and will last 2 years".His chart has the SAME lines drawn on it as he was showing me 10 years ago.The same methodology and the same conclusions. This guy just does not get it!
If you look at the microcrosm of this forum you can see who the winners are and who the losers are.
In my previous "doomsday" thread posters are still arguing the hyperinflation, printing money, its all gonna collapse claptrap.Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary they still BELIEVE.A "financial tsumani" is coming
The whole doomsday concept has been dead in the water for some time now but they are still arguing for it. Its as laughable as it is tragic.
They have zero flexibilty.They have trouble when some one says they were short gold but now they are long.These losers think that because you were once short the nikkei you must always be short the nikkei.That you were short the AUD therefore all your trades are shorting the AUD.
To the winners this way of thinking is both annoying and amusing. But in the end is seems to be pretty pointless attempting to help these losers.They will forever continue like that I guess.
Meanwhile the winners just look forward to the next trading week.
Enjoy.
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Replies: 41
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do you just spread bet alone or do you combine with share dealing?
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hi randle- I have 2 totally seperate capitals.One for derivitaves and one for stocks.Mainly these days I do covered calls with stocks, since the derivitave trading has been going so well.I find this better since you can easily have several "trades" but in reality they are all the same trade with stocks. ie stocks are invariably longs.
I found that by doing covered calls I can still short or long stocks without affecting my long stock positions. Which do you prefer? |
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1.Recognize whats going on AND not fall into what they are being told by the media
Is this one of the rules you added after making your gloating thread based on a CNBC article? I'd also like a response to my post in that thread rather than just I'd like some reason points from all this evidence you have instead of just talk. |
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ok thanks, I'm new to the game to be honest and looking for experienced people's views.
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Randle do not follow Mr Ben. Read his posts, then read Menelaus' posts and then do your own research to see which side you believe.
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A lot of what ben says here is correct, and is pretty much common knowledge (ignoring the whole argument about doomsday type scenarios you lot seem to be having).
The crux of it is: trade what you see, rather than what you think should happen. Whilst I do agree with the Doomsday people, they are inherently missing the point about trading what is actually happening. Whilst there could be a collapse, it isn't happening right now is it? Thus it is pure folly to start basing decisions on what you think should be happening, and may not actually occur for another few years. That is the foremost reason why the bears have been slaughtered recently. They see the ponzi rally in stocks unfolding, and then start shorting it, because they THINK it has to go down. Well, they have now been wrong for 2 years, and are losing more money by the day. They have ignored the first rule in that you should trade what you see. Yes, they will eventually be right, but it could take another year or two to happen. This is the inflexibility and need to be proved right that ben is talking about. |
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Fair point about the bears shorting stocks. They will continue to rise while the fed continues to pump money in like they are but this is just papering over the cracks and isn't because the value of stocks are rising, it's because there is more devalued currency to buy them with.
The main investment class of the bears including myself has been precious metals which are rising for the same reason so not sure we're getting slaughtered but I agree with the poing on those shorting stocks. I think precious metals are a sure way to make money and retain your purchasing power though and I added another 34 ounces to my (small) stash a few days ago in the form of one ounce kooks and koalas. Have any of you ever seen Mike Maloney's videos on where silver and gold are going? He basically thinks they will sky rocket in value against shares and real estate and eventually precious metal holders will be able to cash in and buy up alternative investment around the top of the bull market. I have to say i'm far from convinced that metals can go to the levels he is talking about without hyperinflation . |
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Does that thinking not mean that QE can be used as needed until either China gets too annoyed and decides to change the rules or its better for it to happen? Most of my savings are now in stocks now so I'm in Whippets corner in this one. Timing is everything.
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Can you time when China will get annoyed? If they suddenly announce they won't buy anymore stocks and are getting out of the dollar it could spark a sell off in stocks.
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You need to add AUDACITY to your list of character traits a good trader must have
Because without EPIC AUDACITY to come on here and lecture the "dooms-day-scenario" group after making WRONG CALL, AFTER WRONG CALL, AFTER WRONG CALL and do it with a STRAIGHT FACE is nothing short of astonishing. Give it a break MrBean and Wipeout, unfortunately for both of you whenever a prediction is posted on these forums it stays there for posterity. All the AUDACITY in the world can't change the facts. |
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What like the NIKKEI short I called, which even if you were correct (which you aren't), would have cancelled out all the other "wrong calls" combined.
You seem to be obsessed with people getting every single trade right. Why? Anyone with even a basic understanding of arithmetic would know that as long as your average win is bigger than your average loss you can make money. Any bad trades I make, the losses are small. The winnings are massive on all my good trades. Thus I make money overall. Is that too difficult for you to understand? This is exactly the sort of attitude ben is refering to above. You are obsessed with being proven right, and can't accept even small losses. That is why you are a failure. |
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Menelaus, a good trader can win on far less than 50% correct calls, surely?
Far too much ego on most posts on this forum, a shame as underneath, there is probably some really good analysis. It seems as though all you guys want to 'appear' as experts over and above making a few quid? joeydeacon has elevated his / her forum name to iconic status with not so much as a hint of 'look at me, I'm the dogs whatsits'. |
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if it ever gets to the stage when gold/silver is worth $$$$$$$$$$ then presumably the government (or whoever is in charge ) will find a way of taking this wealth off you. at the moment they tax you in fiat currency, it can only be a matter of time before they tax/rob you in gold/silver/whatever u have of value.
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although i have most of my money in gold/silver i have to admit that at the end of the day its just a lump of (fairly useless) metal. I think its ludicrous to think that in a meltdown hyperinflation situation (if we're talking about hyperinflation of ALL fiat currencies) having a stash of metal is going to preserve your 2011 wealth in any meaningful way. In the last few years (the early stage of the FIAT currency collapse) gold/silver has been a great play as it has risen in value faster than food/land/houses/other stuff of real use, but i dont think this will necessarily remain the case as things progress/deteriorate
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@ wipeout
Any bad trades I make, the losses are small. The winnings are massive on all my good trades. Thus I make money overall. Is that too difficult for you to understand? I understand perfectly. In fact, I posted about it numerous times before. If the market goes the other way from what you predicted, you had tight stops. If the market goes your way, you rode the move all the way to the very top until the very moment it reversed, then you shorted it all the way back down again. You never get shaken out of moves by having your stops get hit first. Your stops are miraculously set exactly where they need to be so you don't get shaken out. And when asked to explain how those stops are set, you simply ignore the question or snarkily respond "I use my own proprietary system", or something to that affect. The few times technical analysis came up in any of the discussions on here, I'm not convinced you could even describe what a MA, a channel, a bollinger band or a stochastic indicator is, never mind using them as analytical tools in trading. Yet, it seems you have the special gift to "win big, lose small" just based on some not-to-be-discussed "proprietary system". Yes, and I believe in Santa Claus too. Did you short Nikkei before the tsunami? Or, do gaps up and down in the open have no affect on you? And did you have advance word from the G7 and avoided the reversal after their "let's agree to sell the yen" meeting? Should we pretend we didn't see your recommendation, confident one at that, to short the AUD at 1.02 and then it immediately proceeded to shoot up over 1.05? Where I trade, that's referred to as "blowing up", apparently where you trade it's known as "a small loss". The truth is anyone can make all kinds of preposterous claims on here about massive trading profits, without any one of us being able to prove or disprove them. BUT, we can certainly reach some conclusions on how truthful those claims are by paying attention to the posters other overall comments and track record on the forum. Your calls have been appalling to say the least. You called currency movements to go one way and literally to the minute we watched them go the other way 200bps. Yet you claim massive winnings. You posted that the markets are "entering a bull period" (which in itself was a ridiculous statement considering what the markets have done the last 18 months) and the markets moved strongly the other way, literally the day you posted that. Yet you claim massive profits again. Unless you are posting one thing and trading another, those things spell massive loses to me, not massive gains. But, I forgot silly me, you probably had tight stops and avoided the carnage. Your overall knowledge, AND THIS IS A KEY POINT FOR ME, of what moves equities and F/X markets now days is nonexistent. You may as well go to a casino and play white or black on roulette, it wouldn't be as "black box" to you as the financial markets. Yet you claim massive winnings. Riiiiight....... That is why you are a failure. When everyone was making predictions for 2011, what I posted was that the only thing you need to know to trade the markets in 2011 was one word: INFLATION. If you had spent some time thinking and understanding the meaning behind that single word I posted as my prediction, instead of posting drivel and attempting to pass it off as wisdom, then you'd realize how silly you look calling me a failure. But I forgot, your posts are like a good martini. One part ill temper, one part personal attacks, one part defending losing arguments, shaken with ignorance, served straight up with a twist. Cheers ! |
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One word: Obsessed.
For the person who thought that the S&P was a stock market, you sure do talk a lot of sh1t. I'm pretty sure you have some sort of mental problem to be that obsessed to write 4 massive paragraphs about me. Further evidence of your obsession: If I make a good call, you are either absent, or come to tell me that I am trading with "monopoly money". If I make what seems like a bad call, then you are all over me like a bad rash. Once the position inevitably comes on side, you disappear, never to be seen again. That is almost as sad as the people who try and aftertime bets. One last thing: Do you understand what position or swing trading is? It seems you don't. One does not need particularly "tight" stops when using that style. My risk is the same in monetary terms, but just with the stop further away. But then, you wouldn't understand any of that, thinking that you can't make money unless you hold positions for "less than 30 seconds". |
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Like I said, one part ill temper, one part personal attacks, one part defending losing arguments, shaken with ignorance, served straight up with a twist......and make it a double.
I have been trying very hard to believe you but unfortunately the substance of your posts is pointing the other way, no matter how loud you yell. I'm just being honest with you. You are not an investor, they believe and understand the fundamentals. You are not a trader, they believe and understand technical analysis. You've exhibited a tremendous lack of knowledge and understanding of both. You have also consistently posted taking one position and still claimed profits when the market went decidedly the other way. Perhaps you are always chasing momentum but unfortunately that would mean you always behind the curve. Or perhaps your "proprietary system" is a gift from God and we'll just have to accept that. So that we can end this exchange, since your long rants are allowed but my long posts demonstrate obsession, I couldn't care less whether you are successful in the markets or not. Just continue to post declaring massive profits. Just don't bother posting the rationale behind your market positions because it makes you look foolish. |
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Absolute rubbish - you have tried this before, and as of yet, you still haven't provided any evidence that I "have also consistently posted taking one position and still claimed profits when the market went decidedly the other way.".
Come on, show me all this "evidence" of losing trades. Even if your lies were in fact correct, I would still be in profit thanks to that NIKKEI trade (posted on this forum btw) which was up 20% in two days. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Like I said before. Do you not understand what positing/swing trading is? The times you have tried to aftertime me, has been when the position has gone a minuscule amount in the wrong direction for someone who is looking to hold the trade for days or possibly weeks. Fair enough, if it was a day trade, it would be a disaster, but I have told you I'm not a day trader. Where is your evidence that I don't understand fundamentals or TA? Just because I don't post an analysis for every trade, doesn't make them void. What is the point of posting a detailed analysis when losers like you with nothing better to do are just going to ridicule it anyway? I'm afraid you meet all the hallmarks of being a compulsive liar, and even a downright psychopath. Seek help. |
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Love is in the air
Everywhere I look around Love is in the air Every sight and every sound And I don't know if I'm being foolish Don't know if I'm being wise But it's something that I must believe in And it's there when I look in your eyes Love is in the air In the whisper of the trees Love is in the air In the thunder of the sea And I don't know if I'm just dreaming Don't know if I feel sane But it's something that I must believe in And it's there when you call out my name (Chorus) Love is in the air Love is in the air Oh oh oh Oh oh oh Love is in the air In the rising of the sun Love is in the air When the day is nearly done And I don't know if you're an illusion Don't know if I see it true But you're something that I must believe in And you're there when I reach out for you Love is in the air Every sight and every sound And I don't know if I'm being foolish Don't know if I'm being wise But it's something that I must believe in And it's there when I look in your eyes (Repeat Chorus 4X) |
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wipeout, you have a penchant for witch hunts.
The first tool of the uniformed...debasement of personality versus facts. |
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The times you have tried to aftertime me, has been when the position has gone a minuscule amount in the wrong direction for someone who is looking to hold the trade for days or possibly weeks.
If by minuscule you mean almost parabolic the other way, then I agree. Short the AUD "at anything over 1.02", remember this recommendation? http://forex.tradingcharts.com/chart/Australian%20Dollar_US%20Dollar.html?chartpair=Australian%2520Dollar_US%2520Dollar&ctype=b&movAvg1=&movAvg2=&tz=EST&per=1d&sub=Save You should be embarrassed to continue to post your nonsensical rants, and insist that you are right when all the evidence points the other way. |
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And for the record, I didn't aftertime anything. I posted the following after you recommended "short at anything over 1.02" and which you conveniently chose not to answer and to ignore. Why?
Because the 1.02 DID REALLY COME OUT OF YOUR ARSE. Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05 Replies: 446 29 Mar 11 08:55 wipeout, care to share with us why exactly 1.02 is the magic number? Is it because of analyzing charts, is it because of some MA, is it because of some other TA, is it because you consulted a tarot reader, or is it because you simply just pulled it out of your arse? |
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wouldnt it be so much easier if these two met up, fcked each others brains out and got over their d1ck comparison slanging matches,
get over each other you pair of girls |
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Are you really that obtuse you old fool?
Why are you so obsessed with everyone getting 100% of all trades right? Do you not realise you can make money even getting a fraction of trades right.....? Seek help. |
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I would say someone was just emotionally triggered. Wipeout, it's time you step away from the keyboard and take a walk around the block.
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Are you joking?
You are the one going around calling people liars on an internet forum ffs. Sorry to be the one to tell you this, but you are actually a psychopath. Seek help. |
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And to answer your question, I have had the market run up sharply against a position I had taken MANY TIMES. BUT NOT ONCE I did I call a massive move like that minuscule, nor HAVE I EVER been caught off-side like that WITHOUT KNOWING WHY.
Sadly, not only you lost your money, I'd venture a guess you don't even know what you MISSED in taking a "shorting at anything over 1.02" position at a time when all the fundamentals and technicals were screaming going long. It was like a big tsunami was coming (no pun intended) but you are recommending to people to head to the beach.....and take all their kids with them. This is what happens when "proprietary systems" turn out to be nothing more than just throwing darts on a board. Enough for today, I promised my two daughters to take them to a show. Try to enjoy what's left of the weekend instead of having an emotional breakdown. |
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Good post MrBen, however:
Those that lose have some common characteristics 1.They believe they are right Doesn't that apply to you too? |
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thanks investor.
to answer your ??, no. I hope I am right.In the trading game believing something is probably one of the worse things you can do.You have to remain open to all the options. I'm missing half the thread as I have melly blocked. Doubt I would be missing anything of worth. |
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Wetwipe, i dont know were you get the time to trade, you rant on and on..... , on so many subjects, your an exburke on just about everything, i am considering rebranding you, (RANTER) yes that will fit the bill nicely, stock exchange or Den Of Iniquity, trading on fear and scare tactics.
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Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2687 27 Dec 10 04:13 What you find is that when all the predictions are for catastrophy its plain sailing. When booms are predicted, recession soon follows. Gold down, silver down, USD up- thats the way to bet from here. Gold - $1,474 Silver - $41.55 $DX - 74.95 No benny, you are not missing anything, anything at all.  |
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In the trading game believing something is probably one of the worse things you can do ~~~ benny
I have opinions of my own –strong opinions– but I don’t always agree with them ~~~ George W. Bush |
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Ireland will boom and bust, aklash, 2003.
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Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2687 27 Dec 10 04:13 What you find is that when all the predictions are for catastrophy its plain sailing. When booms are predicted, recession soon follows. Gold down, silver down, USD up- thats the way to bet from here Great find Menelaus! |
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Back in the days when I first started in banking I'd read a financial paper on the tube on the way to work and think about my trades for the day. By the time I got to my desk and read a few reports I had convinced myself what will happen and trade accordingly even when my indicators, my mentor, and what I had been taught was telling me otherwise.
I quickly learned that as a beginner you needed a very flexible mind, to just focus on TA and not give a sh*t about the numbers, to forget anything that may give you an unhealthy bias, and that reading Loaded on the way to work and talking about the previous nights Football to the chaps was ideal for clearing the mind to trade well instead of filling your mind with clutter. As you get more experienced you can add ideas about longer term set ups and wait for them to happen. If they materialise then great, if they don't, think about why and move on. I rarely open my charts these days, but for a long term long set up check out the Yen crosses. With interest rates on the move in the eurozone, and the UK and USA likely to follow suit in the coming months there could be some good positions to be had. |
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For those with a bright mind and a desire to trading success you should be able to see that pastie is a winning trader.
compare his post to J2's. Its intering pastie that you rarely open your charts these days.Same here.I don't really use charts anymore for anything other than a visual guide line.Price action is all that really counts. |
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Okay MrBean, I'll take a shot at solving the riddle. You don't use charts anymore because perhaps .........you don't know how to read them?
Did I win the prize? |
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pity I cant see your posts melly.I often wonder what pearls of wisdom your deluded clueless self is coming up with?
hows that hyperinflation trade working for you? Made a single dollar yet? |
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Mr Ben I have said many times you school me on trading and I only really specialise in precious metals. I think there will be hyperinflation and have prepared for that. My only investments are silver and gold which as you can see are both doing exceptionally well. I really hope you are right and there isn't hyperinflation but I beleive there will be and have invested accordingly. My total precious metal holdings are about 5k now which is peanuts. I'm just please i'm on forums like this and researching investments while other 23 year olds are buying PS3s on credit.
Believe it or not, I appreciate you replying to my post whether you agree with me or not. |