Tradefair & Financials
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Jobs news in the AM, earnings in the PM, first time I can remember earnings announced before Jan options expiry.
best case is big sell off early and Apple provides reasonable guidance for a change, along with good numbers, plenty of other variables.
win or lose this is one I'm happy to gamble on.
best case is big sell off early and Apple provides reasonable guidance for a change, along with good numbers, plenty of other variables.
win or lose this is one I'm happy to gamble on.
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It may be a little too late. The play might have been QID last Friday when the whispers about Job's started. With AAPL having over 20pc weight on the index, that's where the impact will be felt, taking down other techs in the process.
Good luck with your gamble. |
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not sure the two are related with qid tracking down over a month now, I'm fairly sure this info was contained. in terms of derivatives there was no discount Friday so hopefully there will be something at the open Tuesday.
currently down only about 5 percent premarket so not quite the reaction one would have expected over the past 24 months,dunno if the republican turnover has taken the volatility out of the market, maybe the golden days of SEC corruption and market volatility are over? |
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QID is the NASDAQ index ultra short. The correlation is inverse, so of course it was tracking DOWN, the NASDAQ was UP.
The "whispers" about Job's were mentioned in Art Cashin's newsletter to UBS clients late last week, so it wasn't as tight as you might think. Here's the headline at WSJ's MarketWatch before today's open in NY: Apple Shares off 5%, heavy weighting drags on Nasdaq. Here's the link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-higher-but-apple-shares-drop-2011-01-18?dist=beforebell maybe the golden days of SEC corruption and market volatility are over? No one will accuse you of not having a sense of humour  |
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picked up 320 calls at $15.45 and again a $17.45 in the opening hour, now at $24.40, will hold most through earnings as I've plenty of ITM Jan calls already.
nice easy trade though. |
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Last time jobs went on leave, the price went down upon announcement, but then gapped up 3% over the original price when the latest results were announced soon after. So here's hoping the same thing happens this time.
Seems rather coincidental that his leaving was announced right before the results. I'm concluding from that that the results are better than expected, although this is complete guess work. I'll be taking a gamble on it though. |
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4:32 PM Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $6.43 beats by $1.07. Revenue of $26.7B beats by $2.3B. iPhones sold: 16.24M. Macs: 4.13M. iPods: 19.45M, iPads: 7.33M. Shares will resume trading at 4:50.
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Would you look at that. Apple up 3.22% to 351.61 today now in after hours trading. The whippet crystal ball is working overtime lately.
Hope you were on Melly? |
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And it reverses afterhours......
You should have waited until tomorrow to aftertime, Wipeout, it would have spared you the embarrassment. |
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Do you actually understand what the concept of P/L is you buffoon? I'm shocked that a bean counter on a "7 figure salary" such as yourself doesn't know what this is, but then again, your "boutique" firm doesn't appear to have very picky hiring standards, which is evident from the bile you spew on this forum daily.
You have tried to make a fool of me a few times by trying this. First it was when I bought Silver at $28.15, and you posted some comment when it dipped down to $28.50. Now you have tried to do it on this stock, which I have bought at 335. What is the profit on the current out of hours price of 345 please? If you are going to after time, at least try and do it when my trade goes the wrong way from the very start. Which is yet to happen on anything I've posted on this forum, btw. |
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"I have bought at 335"
wipeout, point me to the post which you put up that you bought at 335 BEFORE Apple released earnings. All AFTERTIMERS have winning trades on here, wipeout, all of them, so don't think yourself too clever. Although I must admit your mate Mr Bean has you beat by some margin. |
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"although this is complete guess work"
Never mind, wipeout, I found it myself. |
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melly- what is the point of you posting here?
you critizize every other poster you have nothing to offer in terms of ideas or trades or questions or anything at any level your yet to make a single post that makes any sense or has any credibility you obviously have a personality issue none of anything you claim as gospel truth bears any resembalance to reality your not interested in exchanging ideas your not interested in debating anothers point of view I mean seriously- what are you doing here? Are you on day leave from a mental institution or similar? Please explain why you are here. |
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....to expose a FRAUD like you.
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I suppose we are all supposed to be "grateful" for this service.
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You should be, but evidently you are not.
When you are accepting a clueless poster who doesn't understand how money gets created (the most fundamental principle in economics) commenting on money matters, or who can't even describe CPI or how it's calculated, yet commenting on an inflation/deflation debate, or posting just about any rubbish he pleases without ever being able to post any data supporting his assertions, when you are accepting that WITHOUT A MURMUR, then you are unable of critical thinking and make a mockery of this forum as a place of serious discussion. But may be I have it all wrong. Knowledge of the subject matter doesn't appear to be a prerequisite for posting on this forum, unless of course you are cut and pasting others ideas and trying to pass them off as your own. |
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What ever happened to manners and treating people with respect? Just where were you dragged up? You can politely disagree. You don't have to try to belittle and abuse everyone. You continue to make yourself look a right d1ck and I doubt anyone is impressed by your behaviour. Your pathetic attempt to discredit me by claiming I am trying to pass a posting off as my own is playground stuff.
This is not a place of serious discussion, but a chat forum on a betting site. Other people's views and opinions are as valid as yours, whether they are a financial expert, or an amateur. |
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Stow, take a pill.
Next time you decide to take a swing at someone here, make sure they don't have a bigger club than yours hidden behind their back. You showed up uninvited to trash one of my posts for......wait for it.....a spelling mistake ffs. But when I give you back the same medicine, I'm acting like a d1ck. That's rich......... |
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Your the one taking part in multiple arguments, perhaps it's you who need some medicine. Correcting a spelling mistake is hardly trashing a post.
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Whatever.......
I take exception when an "amateur" presents his points on here as if they are coming from an "expert", loudly, belligerently and with the conviction of a religious zealot and then immediately resort to ad hominem attacks as soon as you question them over it, or point out how wrong they are. And if you don't see that, then you haven't been reading all the posts one here but are rather fixated on mine. |
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Which planet are you from? Copying & pasting is now a crime
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Have you swallowed a dictionary? Have you now installed that dictionary plugin?
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Ok. lets assume I didn't actually buy in at 335. Let's just say I was in the close yesterday, 340.8.
In your opinion, why would you want to be short at this price, melly? I'm interested in hearing your logic. No copy/pasting other people's opinions now please. |
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Whippet, you really have a lot of gall asking me to explain my logic.
I asked you repeatedly in the past to explain the method (either charting or fundamentals or a combination thereof) you use to ALWAYS call top or bottom right down to the precise second (your 335 buy of AAPL was EXACTLY 40 seconds away from the day's bottom of 333.60) and all I got back was that it was your own system based on your 10 years of experience and it was none of my business....or something like that. I would short AAPL at this price because it is overpriced. I would be more than happy to share details behind my statement but you have to stop being snarky and ask nice, like you are really interested in knowing, not looking for an i that's not dotted or a t that's not crossed as an opportunity to trash me post. |
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The days bottom of apple wasn't 333.60 though, although I will forgive you, as I know bean counters don't really understand how to use charts properly.
It opened at 329, and hit a low of 326. So really, $9 away from the bottom isn't particularly impressive. As for 40 seconds, where did you get that from? The price was hovering around 335 for about an hour and a half. If you are going to try and ridicule me, at least do your research properly. I disagree with you about apple being overpriced, compared to the rest of the S&P. I don't think we are anywhere near the top yet, although it looks like there will be a bit of a pull back to 1260 or possibly further. I will be loading up at that point. My view is long equities until the bernanke printing presses stop whirring at least. |
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I tried to be civil with you but it's hard to stay that way with a certified moron.
With a statement like this you may as well put a big neon sign on your forehead flashing "I'm a moron" with bright red lights. "I disagree with you about apple being overpriced, compared to the rest of the S&P." I have news fr you, moron, AAPL IS NOT in the S&P. It's in NASDAQ with a 23.3pc weighting !!!! And you are on here tipping trades ?!?!? Feck, what ignorance. |
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Like I said to you before, moron. Do your research before trying to ridicule me.
Apple is in the S&P and Nasdaq. Did you think the S&P was a stock exchange or something? You do know what the S&P is...right? Next you will be trying to tell me that Microsoft isn't actually in the DOW Better head down to your bunker mate, theres going to be some huge onslaught over this, and rightly so. Stick to bean counting, it's about the only thing you're good for. |
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Next you will be trying to tell me that Shell isn't actually in the FTSE100, but only on the LSE.
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Very clever of you wipeout, AAPL is indeed in the S&P if you are trading the S&P index. It's in NASDAQ if you actually want to trade the Apple stock JUST LIKE YOU WERE CLAIMING you were doing.
But when you are putting imaginary trades up here who the hell cares where the stock trades? Amazing..... |
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You have been busted as the fraud you are I'm afraid.
Why did you think it was odd to compare apple to the rest of the S&P? (which is what I used to answer your question). The only moron around here is you. |
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Because you implied it was trading on the S&P (no such thing !!!) and now you are turning it around and making it like it was my mistake.
Unreal..... |
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I'm sorry, but you're a complete idiot and your post doesn't even make sense.
"I have news fr you, moron, AAPL IS NOT in the S&P. It's in NASDAQ with a 23.3pc weighting !!!!!" From this you are implying that the S&P is an actual exchange. Are you a f*cking simpleton dude? |
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Dude???
That's a new one. If there's a point to be made, anyone can post all kinds of rubbish on here in such a way that NO MATTER which way the market goes, they'll claim profits. You and Mr Bean have perfected that art. |
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Give it up dude. I can't believe you even have the nerve to show your face on here after that almighty blunder.
You have finally erased all doubt that you are a complete and utter fraud. You don't even have the slightest clue about anything. I've seen some utter plebs on these forums but you far and away take the biscuit. Haven't you got some beans to be counting anyway? |
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wipeout, how is that 335 trade going????
Silly me for asking, you probably already booked profits EXACTLY at the very top of the move. Your streak in winning aftertiming trades is intact. |
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Short aapl imo, buy motorola, the new stuff coming out will make aapl products look like stone tablets, sooner or later people will wake up and realise they paying far too much for something far too limited and far too overpriced. I was thinking of shorting aapl at 350, I think thats the top, by Q3&Q4 the new technology will start hitting aapl sales & margins very hard imo.
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There's a lot of legitimate reasons to consider shorting Apple, competitors products about to enter the market is one of them. Jobs probably never returning is another. There are many other reasons too.
It's easy to get on here and say "I don't think they are overvalued", explaining why though is another story. |
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analysts tend to be conservative...
19-Jan-11 Ticonderoga raises target from $450 to $550 19-Jan-11 Piper Jaffray raises target from $438 to $483 19-Jan-11 UBS raises price target from $415 to $465. 19-Jan-11 Barclay raises target from $420 to $450 19-Jan-11 BofA Merrill raises price target from $425 to $450 19-Jan-11 JP Morgan raises target to $450 19-Jan-11 Goldman Sachs raises target to $450 19-Jan-11 Susquehanna raises price target from $390 to $445. 19-Jan-11 Deutsche Bank raises Price Target to $440 19-Jan-11 Kaufman Brothers raises target from $415 to $438 19-Jan-11 Canaccord Genuity raises target to $432 19-Jan-11 Janney Capital raises target to $430 19-Jan-11 Wedbush raises target from $405 to $430 19-Jan-11 RBC Capital raises target from $395 to $425 19-Jan-11 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets: Target raised to $425 19-Jan-11 Oppenheimer raises target from $395 to $425 19-Jan-11 Stifel Nicholas raises target from $400 to $420 19-Jan-11 Citi raises target from $390 to $415 19-Jan-11 Morgan Stanley raises target from $375 to $410 19-Jan-11 BMO Capital: Target from $355 to $405. 19-Jan-11 Gleacher & Co raises target to $400 18-Jan-11 Cramer raises target price to $400. 19-Jan-11 Needham: Target raised to $375 |
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Are these the same analysts who continued to buy the market from March 2007 (subprime debacle revealed) until it plunged almost a year later?
By George, I think they are !!!!!! |
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All rampers, pump and dump is the plan, they all set their watch to a date and sell at the same time leaving average investors in the sh*t.
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