Tradefair & Financials
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Now valued at $50 billion apparently. Someone must be having a laugh surely?
Advertising revenue this year is approx $1 billion.
The crucial point, is that I don't believe they will be able to grow this amount by that much. Firstly, most of the users are kids, who have no money. Secondly, users will desert it in droves if advertising becomes too overwhelming.
Is facebook really worth 25% of what google is? I doubt it.
The mugs who have put money into goldman's order book are going to get burnt. I don't think they really understand what the internet is about, and are only doing so because of the hype. Goldman win either way though, as they are going to collect some massive fees when the IPO comes around.
Can't wait to short this stock when it finally lists.
Advertising revenue this year is approx $1 billion.
The crucial point, is that I don't believe they will be able to grow this amount by that much. Firstly, most of the users are kids, who have no money. Secondly, users will desert it in droves if advertising becomes too overwhelming.
Is facebook really worth 25% of what google is? I doubt it.
The mugs who have put money into goldman's order book are going to get burnt. I don't think they really understand what the internet is about, and are only doing so because of the hype. Goldman win either way though, as they are going to collect some massive fees when the IPO comes around.
Can't wait to short this stock when it finally lists.
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I'd be worried whether Facebook is here to stay. We've had faceparty, bebo, myspace and many more who have had their time in the spotlight. How many facebook users still use myspace or bebo? How many next fad users will still use Facebook?
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the difference with facebook is it's the first social network adopted by older non-technical users and in huge numbers, Google's success was as much about being ubiquitous as it was it's search algorithm.
Just like Google it could go either way but in it's favour is user inertia, high margins, a micro payment future, and the growth of cloud and mobile tech. Don't think I'd invest and 50 billion seems high but it could still surprise. |
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tend to agree with the last comments to say it is just used by kids is inaccurate i'm 40 odd and most people I know who are about the same age are on it and use it regularly tend to see it as a well used medium by my age group more than kids they tend to be on twitter
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definitely although my long term prediction is for people to start abandoning it. perhaps in 5-10 years.
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Interesting cragihol. My experience is 100% the opposite (40+'s on Twitter, kids on facebook)
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http://www.jperla.com/blog/post/facebook-is-a-ponzi-scheme
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its kids who spend the majority of the time on it and have their phones hooked up, i also agree as an every day user of facebook ( 37) im getting more and more bored of it each day and the innovation only takes it away from what was, as they introduce more things and i engage in a lower percentage of their offer, my connection to them declines, i dont believe im the only one but im usually one of the first to get bored of things, id love to be able to short this at a valuation of 50billions( as Gordon Brown would have said)
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About 4yrs max before you get fed up being a pleb.
Its only a novelty. |