Gold today 28th Dec

gold is a traders dream atm. Seems to keep hitting higher highs before retracing to a support level at its 50 day moving average. Been doing this since october. 1440 by early 2011 np.

I'm very bullish on gold and silver. I find it hard to see how someone could be bearish if they do the proper research!

totally agree whippet.Gold has been in a very predictable range for a few months now.I'm looking for a place to short it after last nights huge rally.Especially if it goes up today and tommorrow.

If you like trading ranges and moving averages take a look at the AUD charts.Last night it has a semi parabolic move to the prior high of 1.01.50 then started moving down.I shorted at 1.0144 and 1.0139. This morning its trading at 1.0090.
It really struggles above parity  and I'm looking at it going back into the 99's and maybe the 98's in january.
Had set my stops at 1.01.62 but will move them down this morning to 1.01.19.

  AUd has an upside bias but the range has been predictable, very simi;lar to the gold scenario.

    Good luck and trade hard.

Yes, Mr Bean, we get it. Tomorrow will rain unless it doesn't.

yeh I just saw that ben. The top seems to be somewhere around the 1.020 mark. I've just shorted at 1.017 anyway. I'm prepared to let it go to 1.021 before cutting a small loss. Definitely a value trade though, as if it moves towards anywhere sub 0.98 as expected, I'm looking at a decent sized profit.

yes whippet,a fall like that would be nice.AUD hanging tough atm.You did better than me, i'm short at 101.66.Look forward to the new year.

1.0184 as I type this:

http://www.forexrate.co.uk/charts/audusd.php

I hope you had tight stops

Do you actually read any of the sh1te you post? All you seem to do Menelaus is critise other people's decision making without ever offering any of your own opinions.

I'm not exactly sure why you are gloating here tbh. I have called the top at somewhere around 1.02, and am going to trade accordingly. On Dec 30th at 1am it hit the top at 1.0197, before heading straight the other way, to a low of 1.0118. I notice that you were nowhere to be seen at this point, but instead waited till inevitably the price moved the other way a little bit, before making your snide comments.

I think both of us have stated that our position is that the price will be 0.98 within 1-2 months, and are thus going to trade according to that. Yet here you are, making snide comments only 2 days in? This just shows what a snide little khunt you are.

I agree thats not good sport, you made a good call there Whippet, the dollar index to break below 70 this year? I think it could, I think the AUD could go higher than 1.02 as people get used to the USD being a dog. I'm interested in the Canadian Dollar and what that might do, considering Canada is in a stable decent condition I think the CAD is undervalued.

Whippet, my post was not directed at you but rather at Mr Bean who never admits to being on the wrong side of the trade. 1.0228 as I type this but that's neither here or rather. If you shorted at 1.0166 you just had your head handed to you on a platter.

pierre, Canada is neither in a strong or stable position and their "model" strong banking system is a myth. Have a look at who 3 of the international banks who received FED liquidity during the Lehman crisis were. Canada's economy is currently pillared on two things: housing & commodities demand by China. The first has reached bubble proportions and is now showing signs of popping and if China continues to tighten looking for a huge credit expansion soft landing, look for a huge (25pc range) commodities correction. Both of these factors make the CAD a strong short in 2011 in my opinion.

Its all relative, so you saying Canada is in a less stable position than Europe and US? or Japan who's whole economy is based on exports? I've bet on the Canadian vs Swiss Franc today, to me the AUD is more a commodity currency than the CAD and I have this theory that Americans will start buying CAD as their USD turns into worthless paper.


So tell me what which currency would you put against the CAD? we'll look in a few months and see how it pans out.

USD

It is still the tallest midget in the room by virtue of it's status as the world's reserve currency backed by the 700 US army bases around the planet.

Lot's of reasons to bet against the CAD, two of which I already mentioned. Here's another one: 25,000 jobs vanish in the Canadian economy for every 100bps increase in the USD/CDN cross (70pc of their exports go the the US market). If the CAD drifts any higher than this point (parity), the Bank of Canada will intervene. Yes, they too can print, just like everyone else these days.

Good luck whichever way you decide to play it.

Pierre what about silver? As the dollar becomes worthless paper why would they go for another paper currency? I know that the past would suggest going for another paper currency and the dollar was used by Argentines and Zimbabweans during their inflation but the global awakening regarding the globalist bankers and fiat currencies would play a part IMO, especially in America where I believe people would look to the constitution which states:

"No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts"

Now I know we have come a long way since then but all paper currencies eventually end the same way. I expect a mass awakening to the paper scam and when that happens people will trade their paper at any price for something real.

I prefer silver over gold for the simple reason of price. Gold would soon become far too expensive for the average person.

Another reason for silver is the industrial demand. I know certain posters see that as a negative but silver is the literal term for money in fourteen different languages and industrial demand increasing just increases the rarity of silver! It's a positive IMO.

Whippet
Do you actually read any of the sh1te you post? All you seem to do Menelaus is critise other people's decision making without ever offering any of your own opinions.



Hi whippet,well said, well said.

Happy days this morning!!

   Logged back onto this thread again now that the markets are back trading. Got a good laugh.After reading the above post I looked at mellys.Didnt bother opening the chart as I knew already it showed the dec 31 close.

This imbecile melly has  exposed himself for the total fraud that he is.

    Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE who is involved in financial markets in even a semi serious way KNOWS about end of  quarter window dressing.EVERYONE  knows this is exacerbated by end of year window dressing.

    EVERYONE EXCEPT MELLY  it seems.What a total fraud this guy is.He actually believed in the year end close of markets.

   Not only did he make, but he atually POSTED to make fun at the AUD close dec 31 2010.As I write this the AUD is 101.34, down 100pips from the window dressing close.Whippet is about 35 pips in the money and I am about 30 pips in the money.

     WHERE IS MELANUS NOW????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

The only time he actually posted with  figures involved rather than generalities, he is horribly exposed.

    Now if he posted figures all the time I wouldnt say anything, but since this is the only time he has slipped and refferred to real life  figures  I cannot let it pass.

   I have known this guy is a chest thumping fraud for some time.Now confirmed.

   Heres hoping this complete dunce leaves the forum with his tail between his legs with embarrassment.

   I fear not however, his low self esteem wont let him leave without a monumental insulting post to all concerned as his finale.

    To any contributors who took the slightest notice of this financial midget this is your "burn notice".


Following on whippet- I'm going to move my stops down to 101.64  now.If it drops below 101 I will double my position.This could be a great start to the trading year.  All the best.

now trading 101.08.

position increased by 50% at 101.13.  Average now 101.48

stops moved down to 101.38

omg!!!!

pity your sleeping through this whippet, this trade is developing into a wet dream[;)]

its down to 100.85 now.Your gonna be sooooo happy when you wake up.Enjoy

stops moved down to 1.01.12

Why is it always that ignorance shouts the loudest on here.

The average FX position is held for..........[b]30 seconds[/b]. But Mr Bean holds on for days until the trade turns !!!!!!

Mr Bean, you are either a big fraud or totally ignorant or you have never traded currencies in your life.

I vote for all three.



(p.s: if EVERYONE, and I mean EVERYONE, knew that "end of year window dressing was coming", why didn't you wait to make your trade and maximize profits?. Your posts are not only intellectually dishonest, they are a complete farce.)

Why is it always that ignorance shouts the loudest on here.

The average FX position is held for..........30 seconds. But Mr Bean holds on for days until the trade turns !!!!!!

Mr Bean, you are either a big fraud or totally ignorant or you have never traded currencies in your life.

I vote for all three.



(p.s: if EVERYONE, and I mean EVERYONE, knew that "end of year window dressing was coming", why didn't you wait to make your trade and maximize profits?. Your posts are not only intellectually dishonest, they are a complete farce.)

melly- you are worse than pathetic.Your totally exposed.Man up and admit you collect shopping

trolleys for a living.Theres no shame in it.

What there is shame in is beating your chest and ridiculing all and sundry when in fact it is you who are clueless."The average FX position is held for..........30 seconds. But Mr Bean holds on for days until the trade turns !!!!!!"

Where did you get that one from?  Did you see it on the side of a bus?


   Do us all a favour and get off the forum.Your using up valuable bandwidth.

really embarassing yourselves now chaps  [;)]

time to turn it in i reckon

Menelaus
Date Joined:     03 Feb 05
Add contact | Send message
31 Dec 10 08:15
1.0184 as I type this:

http://www.forexrate.co.uk/charts/audusd.php

I hope you had tight stops




1.00880 as I type this.

Hope you enjoy your sour grapes

Yeh it was a bit of a pity I slept through it ben. Anyway a nice surprise when I woke up. Lots of profit plus menelaus getting ridiculed on the forum. Beautiful.

I think gold looks like it has just took the turn as well. Although I'm not entirely convinced, as it didn't manage to take out a higher high this time. Anyway I have now sold my position, and gone short, at 1417.3. I will be looking to buy back in at around 1385.

Another one to add to the list is silver, which has a very similar trading pattern to gold. I have gone short on that at 31.15, and will again look to buy in sub $30.

Good luck and happy trading.

Menelaus
Date Joined:     03 Feb 05
Add contact | Send message
04 Jan 11 09:17
Why is it always that ignorance shouts the loudest on here.

The average FX position is held for..........[b]30 seconds. But Mr Bean holds on for days until the trade turns !!!!!!

Mr Bean, you are either a big fraud or totally ignorant or you have never traded currencies in your life.

I vote for all three.[/b]

What a completely ignorant statement. Are you seriously suggesting that you can't be profitable at trading unless you use high-frequency strategies?

Here's another 'fact' for you. The average person loses money on the markets. Why would I want to follow the "average", losing person's strategy, when I can find something that works for me, profitably, and follow that.

Perhaps if you spent less time slagging off other's positions on here, you would be able to think up a decent strategy for yourself. Until then you will just remain a bitter and twisted man who is jealous of anyone doing better than you.

"the average FX position is held for..........30 seconds"

Mr Bean shows his stupendous ignorance ONCE AGAIN by saying:

"Where did you get that one from?  Did you see it on the side of a bus?"


Mr Bean doesn't know this FACT but he's on here spouting advice about the markets ?!?!?

That's rich...........





Whippet asks:
"Are you seriously suggesting that you can't be profitable at trading unless you use high-frequency strategies?"


The answer is YES but I'll give you credit that you even knowing what high-frequency trading is as opposed to Mr Bean who obviously has no clue.

George Soros obviously begs to differ. I can just imagine him sitting there now, trading the 1 minute charts.

Give someone enough rope and they'll eventually hang themselves.

So you know, George Soros has a controlling interest in one of the most successful HFT outfits. But I suppose a rank amateur like you probably posted that comment in reference to George Soros's legendary "take-down" of the BoE. I hate to be the one to ruin your image of your heros but Soros was only the front man. Stanley Druckenmiller was the brains behind the whole operation.

I laugh when posters on here like you bask in glory when they post AFTER THE FACT that they made this and that profitable move in the markets. You must have a direct line with God (the AUS floods are the only reason your FX trade reversed) or a direct line with Blythe Masters when you are able to short both Gold and Silver right at the top of the day JUST BEFORE a major take down.

And finally, when I trade currencies I don't even dare go to the toilet for 5 minutes with open positions but you chaps, leave them open overnight while you sleep, over weekends, holidays, multiple days, etc. If you are indeed posting fact and not fiction on here (I know Mr Bean is all fiction - I remember him posting some trades that were impossible to execute last year), you will get hurt. I thought I would warn you.

I laugh when posters on here like you bask in glory when they post AFTER THE FACT that they made this and that profitable move in the markets.

As opposed to you, the person who gloats when one of our trade doesn't go the right way, but then is suddenly nowhere to be seen when inevitably the trades come good?

PS, how can you call this aftertiming?


Whippet
Date Joined:     01 Oct 07
Add contact | Send message
04 Jan 11 13:00

Another one to add to the list is silver, which has a very similar trading pattern to gold. I have gone short on that at 31.15, and will again look to buy in sub $30.

When I wrote that, silver was at $30.76. It is now trading at $30.06. Even if you don't believe that I shorted at $31.15, I have still made money.

Whippet 1 - Menelaus 0

or how about this one, also posted on the forum.

Whippet 24 Oct 10 13:00
Illumina is my big tip.

Price when tipped on the forum - $50. Current Price $65. $100+ within a year is my target (feel free to jot this url in your records, for bump gloating at a later date) That is a 30% increase in just over 2 months. Never mind the fact that I have been buying this share for ages now, not that you will believe me, but I don't care.

Please, if you think I'm a mug, find evidence of a bad tip I have made on this forum. You might think I am lucky, but the number of good trades I make suggests otherwise.


2-0

or how about this one?

Whippet
Date Joined:     01 Oct 07
Add contact | Send message
24 Oct 10 16:17
also hecla mining

Price then - $6.9. Price now $10.70

3-0

What about all the ones that went sour Whippet?

It sounds like you are a "buy and hold'em" chap. I wish you luck.


(p.s: yes, I still think you are a clueless mug)

get a room u two

When it comes to gold and silver buying and holding is a sound and relatively risk free strategy.  It'll likely be a few years yet before they peak.

Totally agree Live4 re:hold gold AS LONG AS it is physical and not the paper ETF type.

what will cause gold/silver prices to peak live4?

Sir Denis, I don't know what you agenda is but why do you keep asking questions on this form that you ALREADY know the answer to. I've seen enough of your posts on here to know that you are one of a handful of posters on here who "get-it", so I don't understand your approach.

Please enlightened me. And please, don't respond with another "and I thought I was clueless" comment, it makes you look totally disingenuous.

erm...u've lost me sorry

never mind

.....and here's the answer to your question:

an end to fiat debasement (which won't happen under the existing monetary system)

so Live4 is spot on, long way to go yet

Hi Whippet,

Yeh it was a bit of a pity I slept through it ben. Anyway a nice surprise when I woke up. Lots of profit plus menelaus getting ridiculed on the forum. Beautiful.

ohhh its such a beautiful day!! AUD down to 100.50 as I write this. I woke up late this morning and after checking the prices the prices  I had an involuntary climax!!!!!!!

Not only that but the thought of melly getting more and more infuriated with every pip drop was a most satisfying image.Any credibility this  financially challenged dropkick had left has now evaporated.

  The financial midget of the year award  for 2011 is already over, melly just won it hands down!!!!!


I think gold looks like it has just took the turn as well. Although I'm not entirely convinced, as it didn't manage to take out a higher high this time. Anyway I have now sold my position, and gone short, at 1417.3. I will be looking to buy back in at around 1385.

  your a smart guy whippet!! I also shorted gold at 1414.12 but for a lousy 3 contractsI was just too focused on the AUD.
you must be positivly beaming after the session last night, gold is now 1380/1 as I write this.

these markets are just a dream for our style of trading.


Another one to add to the list is silver, which has a very similar trading pattern to gold. I have gone short on that at 31.15, and will again look to buy in sub $30.

beautiful!!!  I dont trade silver but I'll take a look at it since you have  said its similar to gold.Thanks for that.

What a phenomenal start to 2011

     Best of luck and trade hard!

"Anyway a nice surprise when I woke up."


If this doesn't make you laugh, nothing posted on this forum EVER will.

Thanks for the comic relief, Mr Bean, I can always count on you to deliver.

(p.s: you're not posting enough 's, more would work better working the audience in a laughing frenzy)


(p.p.s: what exactly is your "style of trading", posting rubbish, show epic ignorance and then sleep through an imaginary trade???? Good style, I commend you.)

Is there ANYONE on this forum who didn't short gold and silver at the top yesterday and timed today's take-down to perfection?

If not, take a nap, it'll come to you in your sleep.....

I don't know how you can even argue that I didn't short silver today. I posted on this forum when it was $30.76 saying I did it, and it hit a low of $29.33 at one point. Even if you don't believe I shorted at $31.15, that is still a decent return. Jealousy isn't really an attractive trait. Instead of being bitter, why not just join the party?

Hi ben,

As with previous highs, both gold and silver took a massive hit today (as should have been obvious, to even the amateur investor (but obviously not menelaus ))

It will be interesting to see what happens to gold now. The previous pattern of it getting support at it's MA50 doesn't appear like it will happen this time. I'm expecting the support level to be the same as the previous peak - around $1360.

As for silver, support appears to be around $29.30.

For both, I would expect further consolidation, and small loses, over the next 2 days. US Non-farm Payrolls & US Unemployment Rate is released on Friday, so will be interesting to see what happens from that.

Silver is definitely one to look into though, ben. Especially if you are already trading gold. You might as well just get involved in silver as well. The only difference in the two, at the moment, is that the % changes are magnified for silver. So, it makes sense to trade that, as your profits are going to be bigger. Of course, like most of us, I would imagine you already have some physical silver and gold.

My current positions, are still, short on both Silver and Gold. (feel free to bump this menelaus, when the position briefly goes the wrong way, thanks. [smiley:crazy]

Happy trading and stay lucky.

[:D][;)]Menelaus
Is there ANYONE on this forum who didn't short gold and silver at the top yesterday and timed today's take-down to perfection?


YES THERE IS---------YOU!!!!!!



Hey trolley boy- why dont you come clean and admit your a total novice? Admit you have self esteem issues and that you need help.

  It takes a real man to admit when he is wrong, even bigger to admit he was a total pretender all along.

   Labrat- your credibilty is now in shreds, you will never be taken seriously here again unless you confess that you are a beginner all along.

In the meantime whippet and I will enjoy cashing in our positions and spending the money on fun and good times.You squeeze back into the dormitory at  the homeless peoples joint.[;)][smiley:crazy]

Hi Whippet,

   oh this is just a beautiful day.Came back inside from mowing the lawns and guess what? The AUD was down to  a minute30[100.30}, another 5k profits pops in.The trade looks so good I just wipe the smile off my face.After it falls below the 1.00 mark I'll start to look at cashing my first contracts.
Sticking it to melly is a HUGE bonus.Totally HUGE.Hell I would give up 10 pips just to see the look on his face now!!

     Actually I dont have any physical gold or silver, I just do contracts.I will take a serious look at silver now and thanks for you guidence.

    Good luck and trade hard.

Whippet, two questions for you:

1. Please explain the method you used, either technical analysis or fundamentals, to reach the conclusions that PM's should have been shorted at that precise moment you shorted at the top, and
2. What vehicle do you use to short Gold & Silver?

I ask this in the sense that the trend line was ABOVE both the 200 MDA and the more important (and the one gold "technicians" use) the 50 MDA as well as the momentum was the other way just making new highs on the CCI. So from a technical analysis point view there was little reason to suspect a sell-off (especially when those booking profits would have done so before the end of the year, not at the start of the following month) and the fundamentals certainly didn't change overnight. Also, the precise timing of your short at the very top of the day before the take-down would make anyone but Blythe Masters blush.

Or, the alternative, you had God whisper it in your ear, or you have a sixth sense that tells you these things, or  you just flipped a coin and hoped for the best?




Mr Bean, you continue to litter this forum with drivel. The louder you rant, the more you expose yourself the ignoramus you really are. The last time I saw anything intelligent posted on this forum by you was..............well, NEVER. So throw another dart on the board, make an imaginary trade, go to sleep and may be you'll wake up richer again.......but not an iota wiser.

As for credibility, that matter was settled long ago when you evidently:

didn't know that money was created as debt,

didn't know that hyperinflation is NOT "huge inflation" nor a monetary event ,

you couldn't even describe the basic methodology of how National Statistics calculates CPI,

nor could you explain that if you expected year-end window dressing why you wouldn't wait to execute your trade and maximize profits.


But all's forgiven, you made an imaginary FX trade, started losing money, went to sleep for a few days, and suddenly.....a miracle......the skies opened over Queensland causing an epic flood.....and your position reversed and it all worked out for you. This conclusively proves you are indeed not just any fool, but a lucky fool at that.

In closing, let me say that you are ignorant beyond belief, more annoying than an ugly cold sore and soon to be very poor, if you are not already. Exchanging posts with you is a complete waste of time and I shant be bothering with you anymore.

this is  the destiny of a certain london boutique M & A head director.

hey whippet, dont bother explaining it to him.Let him go away and spend 10 years learning it himself.No free rides here melly.

hold the phone--- the AUD has dropped to 99.99 . so much profit is piling up I need a truck to take it to the bank.Its so lovely being neck deep in fiat currency/debt/hyperinflated/cpi calculated  CASH!!!!! CASH!!!!! CASH!!!!! CASH!!!!

i CAN FEEL A PARTY COMING ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN.

read them number and weep melly, you tragic loser.

Menelaus
Whippet, two questions for you:

1I ask this in the sense that the trend line was ABOVE both the 200 MDA and the more important (and the one gold "technicians" use) the 50 MDA as well as the momentum was the other way just making new highs on the CCI. So from a technical analysis point view there was little reason to suspect a sell-off (especially when those booking profits would have done so before the end of the year, not at the start of the following month) and the fundamentals certainly didn't change overnight. Also, the precise timing of your short at the very top of the day before the take-down would make anyone but Blythe Masters blush.


melly, come on, stop posting please.Thats the most amatuerish post I've seen for a long time.Its the sort of question newbies ask at their first seminar.

"little reason to suspect a sell off"???  have you got a ring thru your nose so it easier to lead you around? Please.

Mr Bean, It is hard to believe how incredibly stupid you are. Stupid as a stone
that the other stones make fun of. So stupid that you have traveled
far beyond stupid as we know it and into a new dimension of stupid.
Meta-stupid. Stupid cubed. Trans-stupid stupid. Stupid collapsed to
a singularity where even the stupons have collapsed into stuponium.
Stupid so dense that no intelligence can escape. Singularity stupid.
Blazing hot summer day on Mercury stupid. You emit more stupid in one
minute than our entire galaxy emits in a year. Quasar stupid. It cannot
be possible that anything in our universe can really be this stupid.
This is a primordial fragment from the original big stupid bang. A pure
extract of stupid with absolute stupid purity. Stupid beyond the laws
of nature. I must apologize. I can't go on. This is my epiphany of
stupid. After this experience, you may not hear from me for a while.
I don't think that I can summon the strength left to mock your moronic
opinions and malformed comments about boring trivia or your other
drivel.

Menelaus
I must apologize. I can't go on. After this experience, you may not hear from me for a while.
I don't think that I can summon the strength


FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!

bye melly, say hello to the other labrats and trolleys boys.

Mr Bean, I think you missed a key word in my last post S T U P I D


Yeah, there's no point in continuing this charade, I took you to school enough.

my d1ck's tiny

Menelaus
Date Joined:     03 Feb 05
Add contact | Send message
05 Jan 11 08:30

But all's forgiven, you made an imaginary FX trade, started losing money, went to sleep for a few days, and suddenly.....a miracle......the skies opened over Queensland causing an epic flood.....and your position reversed and it all worked out for you. This conclusively proves you are indeed not just any fool, but a lucky fool at that.

In closing, let me say that you are ignorant beyond belief, more annoying than an ugly cold sore and soon to be very poor, if you are not already. Exchanging posts with you is a complete waste of time and I shant be bothering with you anymore.


So let me get this straight.

Why, if you think we make imaginary trades, were you on here ridiculing these "imaginary" trades when they went the wrong way? Admit, that you were happy to see us losing money.

Then, suddenly, once all the trades went into massive profit, you started calling them "imaginary" and started saying we were lucky. You couldn't make it up.
You have all the hallmarks of someone with Schizophrenia btw, so you might want to get that checked out.

Menelaus 05 Jan 11 08:30
Whippet, two questions for you:

1. Please explain the method you used, either technical analysis or fundamentals, to reach the conclusions that PM's should have been shorted at that precise moment you shorted at the top, and
2. What vehicle do you use to short Gold & Silver?

I'm not about to tell you my method of making money, which took years to work out. Nice try though. There are clues already on this thread, but I'm not going to take the time to repost them, particularly as you were so rude.

My Cad vs CHF isn't looking too bad either :D happy days .

Hi Ben,

I nearly spat my cornflakes out when I opened up the charts this morning.
Happy days.

I don't believe either will fall that much further now. I'm still looking at $1360 for gold, and for silver, I think it will just break $29, but not by much. Later today/tomorrow I will be selling up, and going long again.

29.23/1369/0.99725 as I write this btw. Mele is seething

Enjoy the profits and happy trading.

^^

this lot in the top 1% of the worlds intelligentsia yet they continually waste their precious time with schoolyard bickering. You could've built a new hedge fund with the time spent arguing on here

My bet is you are all liars and are only posting in between stacking shelves and helping old ladies out with their weekly shop. [;)]

I'm nearly crying tears of joy here ben. Someone over the pond (probably JPMorgue) has just smashed right into the back doors of silver. $28.70 now.

Whippet says: "I'm not about to tell you my method of making money, which took years to work out."

Hmmmm, I didn't realize ignorance was proprietary. Learn a new thing every day on this forum...

get a proper job u useless clowns

One chap evidently is using a proprietary formula that allows him to time market top down to the very second, followed by a major take-down, and the obnoxious Australian apparently is making boat loads of money in his sleep. So telling them to get a proper job is not going to fly I'm afraid Sir Denis.

Hi Whippet and fellow winning traders.

   Starting late this morning.I stayed up till 2 am watching the beauty unfold. Cashed in half the positions at 99.72[:blu**** back up to 1.00  this morning.Will be monitoring today but looking to fold.

   I also am going to cash in, no need to be too greedy. 170+ pips  is plenty!!!!!![:D][:D][:D]

I cashed in the gold as well at 1378.same story.

  Congratulations on silver[:D]  What do you think the chances of silver plunging are? Will JPM win in the end?

   Poor melly , he really was clutching at straws in the end. Looks like he is gone now, too embarrassed to show up for a while hopefully.
He  was looking for a free ride it seems, wanting to know your trading method- what a nerve.!As if real traders are going to spell it out for him.

   Its been a tremendous week and a lot of fun

   Feet are up and will start trolling travel sites to see where I can spend some profits.Its a beautiful world.

     Enjoy the trading.[;)]

yeah, time to get the gloves off, doesnt sound too nice...

anyway, not to have arguments but to 'render unto caesar' i would like to clarify 2-3 pts.

1- average fx trading duration is not 30 seconds. that might be the duration for algo trading bots, but not for fx trading per se. you have normally spot desks who hold positions for anything between seconds to hours ( but they re market makers, and in that function of liquidity providers they work as human bots ), and prop desks where traders hold their positions for days or weeks. or even months if the prop desk is a macro desk. fx option traders hold their positions for days ( shortest position is on o/n opts ). ah, and of course: soros trade with horizon of months, and thats a fact, trust me. the fact that he has a hft outfit doesnt make him an algo trader the same way he s not a computer programmer if he buys 10million microsoft shares.

2- fxings at month/quarter/year end.
i wouldnt reccomend anyone to play on the fixings unless from the comfort of a city desk. they re regular as swiss watches (you can build models that forecast the amount of ccies needed according to how the asset markets performed in the period), but you need to be very sharp as the fixing happens at 4pm and exactly 4pm, and if you try to fade the move you could end up missing it by seconds and with some good losses. you can easily see a 30-40 points move in the space of few seconds, which is normal considering that the amounts of hedges going thru are easily in the 10s of billions ( according to how big the rebalancing of global ptfolios are needed ). now, try to play the fixing at 4pm on ny eve it s not simple. liquidity is poor ( as a matter of fact some mutual funds require the fixing on the 30th ),but it s poor all day long. the only certainty you got is that between 3.58 and 4.00 some crazy buying will go thru, but you def dont know what s the price going to be at 3.58..so if you want to go short, pick up your level and forget the fixing.

3- australia floods. in normal circumstances a natural disaster is a bullish factor on ccies. after the initial emotions, people start to clculate how much money will need to be repatriated, and how much the rebuilding is going to help the economy. remember the kobe earthquake and the usdyen? even more so in a fiscally fit country like australia where some spending from the government is not going to make a dent in their public finances.

4- i dont know why anyone else got short on the aud and gold. someone im sure has done it looking at charts, or listening to their guts, or even consulting their miraculous winning method ;-)
but there were some big events that couldnt and shouldnt have been neglected.
on xmas day china hiked the rates. few days later china pmi was released and was down for 1st time ( altho still above 50 ), then they semi announced that this yr they ll fight inflation using finally a revaluation, few days more and oz pmi was lower than expected. ( and on top the msci rebalancing for metals which shud punish gold in the coming days.)
add that all the numbers from the us had been coming stronger than expected ( they still are, actually )and you have an explosive situation for liquidity expectations, hence for the commodities ( most of which are used as ccies ), and commodity ccies.
wheter it will go on all year - or even all month - it s all to be seen. but forecasting aud lower was the national and easiest sport around the end of the year. especially after the monster rally it had in the last 10days of the year ( vs the usd but even vs the eur or the peers nzd and cad ).
ehy have a look at my own "2111 forecasts" thread contribution, and even I indicated ( among all the other winners,lol) at least 4 aud-xau-zar short positions to have ( based off the same rationale i m explaining now ).

5- always remember something adam smith was saying some 2-300 yrs ago.
prices are the result of demand and offer. there s no theoretical price of anything in finance. the prices of assets and ccies are only the result of demand and offer, ie of liquidity conditions.

anyway,
have fun with your trading and good luck everyone.

ps menelaus, i found the 'stupid' piece very amusing. did you write it yourself or is a quote form someone else, a movie or something?

Hi Ben,

Good job on the trades, nice profits again.

JPMorgue and others they are in collusion with are only delaying the inevitable. JPMorgue are short a massive, massive amount of paper contracts, which they can't get rid of easily, because they are currently under investigation for silver price manipulation. If they wanted to cover it with physical silver, it would take them 3 months to buy enough.

Add this to the fact that the Comex don't have enough silver to guarantee physical delivery. Things can go on happily like this while they are still able to pass off worthless fiat on people instead, but if a significant number of people start demanding physical delivery then the Comex will be insolvent. They tried to delay this further, a few months back, by jacking up the margins required by 30%, but this has done little to ease demand.

Silver is worth buying as protection against impending doom, if nothing else. As an investment, you could easily pick any number out of your head as a price it could reach, from $50 to into the hundreds of dollars. The market has been distorted that much it is impossible to know. But what is certain, if you are going to buy, it has to be physical.

Hope you enjoy the holiday, send us back a postcard.

Good luck and profitable trading.

nice post JW

your just too polite!.You have given melly the answers he was seeking although i doubt he has the experience to understand it anyway.

re the aussie floods- its actually much worse than it appears.Its being reported in a typical aussie fashion.The " she'll be right" attitude.Floods are supposed to peak either today or tomorrow.The problem is MORE rain is forecast in about 2 weeks time. Currently things have been underwater about 2 weeks and it will take another 2 weeks for the waters to recede.Underwater for a month who really knows the extent of the damage?If it rains heavily again who knows how long underwater.

   The main coal port in QLD reported today it expects to run out of coal to load on either friday or saturday this week.Not a single mine in QLD is working. Not only do the waters have to recede, the clean up done but all the equiptment will have to be repaired or replaced and tested.Word is that there will be no coal for at least 2 months.
  The reality is no one really has any idea how it will play out or  how it affect things in china.They have stockpiles for such a situation.?

   How will it affect the AUD? I wish I knew.

re your point 4. Both gold and AUD were set up to fall.I won't go into the machinations but suffice to say that the price action between the christmas eve close and the nye close were a dead giveway. As you succintly stated its impossible to  catch the window dressing close.Had I not been so positioned in the AUD I would have gone for more gold contracts.In any case it was a big and beautiful result.I wish all trades were that obvious.

   All the best
           Benny.

@ JW

1.WRONG, the average FX position is held for 30 seconds as proven by a study conducted and recently published by Prof. Michael Hudson. The FX market is the FX market, you can't pick and chose between HFT outfits and the "Soros horizon type traders" (your analogy, not mine, I doubt given today's volatility anyone trades currencies with that long an outlook). In the FX market,  the AVERAGE position, including ALL traders and styles is held for 30 seconds. PERIOD. Yes, I know algos dominate the market and therefore skews the numbers, but that's EXACTLY the point I was trying to make.

2. I agree with your points but I believe you were addressing to Mr Bean with that one. Unfortunately what you posted is so over his head, you wasted your time posting it. He post below proves the point.

3. Australia floods. Normally yes, but in this case the currency was affected because it affected mining export operations. It's not about rebuilding, it's about what Australia's export economy (and currency) is founded on coming to a halt. Mr Bean is still clueless that the ONLY reason his alleged trade reversed from a losing position was the floods. He's still wondering how it will affect the AUD. Priceless.......

4. The take-down of Gold and Silver had nothing to do with charts, fundamentals or China. It was a PPT job. The Fed is trying to create "selective inflation" in housing, bonds and stocks, while simultaneously trying to suppress other asset prices (PM's, commodities).  The FED is failing. The other chap thought his proprietary formula predicted the precise timing of the take-down when it was nothing more than being at the right place at the right time. Amazing really....

5. Mr Bean is now scratching his head and mumbling to himself "who's Adam Smith?"

I'm afraid you have become so bogged down in theory that you are unable to see the wood for the trees anymore.

You were the one who assumed I used some sort of complicated formula. I never confirmed nor denied it.

As you say, it is the fed, in collusion with banks such as JPMorgue, suppressing the price, as I alluded to in my 05 Jan 11 23:46 post. It is almost like clockwork. All that is needed is to start shorting somewhere near the top of the higher high. The best trades are often the simple, common sense ones.

Make no mistake though, there is no way they can keep suppressing the price forever. Things will eventually implode. JPMorgue are short a huge number of paper contracts, and the supply of silver is running out at the Comex. Once people start to shun the worthless fiat then they will be up sh1t creek without a paddle.

sorry but i got to reply

the article you refer to say im WRONG about the fx duration is complete nonsense. or at least misleading. as misleading as watching drogba shooting 1 meter wide on the left, then one meter wide on the right and think we re 2-0 up.

for example, in the same article i read:
HUDSON: Take any stock in the United States. The average time in which you hold a stock is--it's gone up from 20 seconds to 22 seconds in the last year. Most trades are computerized. Most trades are short-term. The average foreign currency investment lasts--it's up now to 30 seconds, up from 28 seconds last month.

so now you re telling me that we are all trading anything for seconds otherwise we re not in the norm?
i think you re smart enough to know the difference between algo trading and the rest ( call it human trading ). computerized trading happens to take advantage of the small discrepancies you have in prices between different platforms ( ebs, reuters, currenex, lava, hotspot, fxall, i dont know how many im forgetting now ); arbitraging the crosses via the legs when possible, or the spot vs the future market. you have machines in every single insitution ( mainly banks ) trading all day, with no human input, generating hundreds of thousand of transactions. with duration of few seconds. on top, in the last 3 yrs a number of aggregators have sprung up, the result being an even more crowded computerized fx world. which is not fx anyway.the same way the 22seconds duration equity trading ( baskets vs indexes, for example ) is not equity trading. ( this guy actually shows that the fx duration is 33pct longer than the equity one, but then probably fair comsidering volatility on ccies is way lower than on stocks..)

at the end of the day, if we were to trade every 30 seconds, what would be even the point of discussing those ideas on a forum? and then, i think you said many times that gold is a currency. how many 30 seconds period have you held this position for? ;-)
but that s ok and normal, there are positions i ve been holding - at work or pa - for years!

ehy, we are not in the times of the sophists. so it s not necessary to always have an argument. nor to have to win it all the times.

enjoy tomorrow, and watch out. wheter manipulated or not, a reading above 300 should be good for dollar, bad for bonds, ccies and commodities.

jw

And you'd still be WRONG.

There's no such thing as "algo trading and the rest". It's ONE market we're all trading on and one that is dominated by HFT. When I take a position, I don't request that a human take the other side, anyone can, and more often than not it's a HFT computer.

And in this market, I repeat, the avearge FX position is held for 30 seconds.



(p.s. the reason the average for equities is lower is frontrunning by HFT of EVERY trade)

sorry again. but although you say many interesting things, your love for arguing makes you sound very naive sometimes.

you mentioned that mr ben cant possibly have had a position in aud overnight or for a few days because the average trader keep a position for 30 seconds. you said that when you trade currencies you cannot hold them for more than 5 minutes ( still you have a position in the ccy 'xau' since few yrs, i think to remember it was sub 1000, so plse dont tell me you got out 30 seconds later ); your source for your reasoning points out that equities are held for 22 seconds ( and i defy to prove me anyone here traded even once in your life with a time horizon of 22 seconds ).
so, we agree that the 30 seconds duration is because of algo bots? ok, then mr ben can have a position for a week without being weird. it would be weird if he actually took a position for 30 seconds because that would make him look like a robot actually.

buddy, fx is my work and my life. lets make a deal, i wont come here to try to teach you about how a merger is done, and you stop telling me im wrong about the technicalities ( not the views, not the ideas, just the technicalities ) of a market that i know better than my pockets.

jw

JW, I don't want to argue semantics with you.

Of course Mr Bean CAN have a position open in AUD overnight, or a few days, or as long as he likes. What I am saying is that considering today's volatility and level of CB intervention (we've seen this in the case of CHF, Euro, USD, and some others) it is downright stupid and suicidal to hold positions open while you sleep. You will get slaughtered, and it will mostly fast machines that will be doing the slaughtering.

Yes, the 30 seconds average IS because of HFT which dominates the number of trades on the market. I said that repeatedly in my posts. You can't have a different average for humans and a different average for computers, we are ALL trading on the same market and don't know who the other side of the trade is. So my original statement of "the average FX position is held for 30 seconds" as per Prof. Hudson's study, that you so strongly objected to, is factually correct.

I don't know how you make the giant leap in assuming I own and hold XAU. I don't and never have. I have been posting on this forum at nauseum that those interested in protecting their wealth against fiat debasement through owning gold, should own PHYSICAL gold, not the paper ETF kind.

At any rate, I enjoy trading posts with you, at least they are very intellectually stimulating. Best of luck trading currencies.

* be *

Just read the last 60 something posts since I posted and I must say I haven't got a clue what anyone is talking about. Where would I find a decent book on trading currencies?

Oh and congrats on your trades guys

don't worry about melanie....he used to post on the US racing forum .....got spanked so badly that he retreated to financials ...pmsl .....see the same is happening here.....the most unsuccessful "know it all" you'll ever meet

melanie: an absolute know-nothing-blowhard

I applaud your post winston.I was getting worried.I mean what does it take for the penny to drop that melly is a total fraud? This guy is worse than a novice.Hes like a 17yo kid going on his first driving lesson and tell his dad "I know how to drive!"

   Some of the stuff he has posted here is so outrageously see through newbie  its embarrasing to the forum.
  Its obvious to anyone who trades in the real world that melly never has.His postings are so "out there "  real traders just sit there scratching their heads at it.

    This financial forum has been too soft on him.Too polite.We need to take a leaf out of the US racing forum and  give him the treatment he deserves.

its quite clear you're all homosexuals

Haven't posted my position for a few days now. I sold silver right before the non-farms, at 2850. I then decided to go long after the non-farms results, at 2855.

I thought I was initially onto a winner, when it shot up to 2936. It has now crept back down to 2868, for reasons unknown to me. You would have thought that non-farms coming in at a lot less than was expected, would have given people more appetite for risk averse investments.

Either way, my stop is around where I bought at, so will re-evaluate if that happens. Would have thought we had hit the low for now though, and should see $32 around the end of jan, unless some outside forces are at work (i.e fed/jpmorgue). We shall see.

Decent gains today - I'm looking to a price of ~$32 by Jan 21st.

My sources tell me that there are a number of institutional investors planning to accumulate large amounts of March Futures from the first week of February, whereby they will then demand physical delivery on said futures at expiry. The dry run of this was in the first week of November, where the price went from $24 to $29.30 in a week. Comex promptly increased the margins required on all positions, sending the price down over $2 in half an hour.

Comex don't have anywhere near the amounts of silver required to serve an increased demand in physical. We will be looking at a price heading towards $40 by march when this happens. Now you know the score, get your hands on any physical you can find, and leverage yourself up to your eyeballs on march futures. Silver is dirt cheap right now, an opportunity like this won't be around forever.

LOL, Devo......."your sources"....is that Max Keiser or Zero Hedge??  they said the same thing, VERBATIM

Never even heard of either of those people. They must have the same "sources" as me though.

Now trading at $29.60 btw. Looks like I successfully called the bottom yet again. Looks like melly has gone very quiet.

Imo, this is what will happen:

Now - Jan 21st. Increases to $32.

Jan 21st-Feb 4th: retrace to ~$30

Feb 7th - March 1st: slowly increases, before exploding right before the march futures expire, to $40.

I'm going in big time on these trades. By the time silver is trading at $100+ in a few years time I will be a (worthless) paper millionaire.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AId_UiPtPpQ&feature=player_embedded


Devo....tell me if this video rings any bells

Hi Whippet,
    Bought a 5000oz silver contract last night.Following you in here.Paid 29.14.even if it doesnt get to 32$ the range trade alone looks strong.
     best of luck on the trade.

Melly has gone I think, he could'nt keep the charade going it seems.Too many guys have woken up and he had to spend too much time googgling to get his replies.

p.s. I went short the AUD again but already took profits.Could'nt believe it when it bounced back to 99.60, thought it was a total manipulation.It really looks sick atm due at least in part to the floods.I want to follow it down to the 95's but not trading too big like the near years trade.

Didn't see that video actually winston. Saw the first part a few weeks ago. Might have to check that site out as they appear to have similar views to me.

Good work on the trade ben. Looking good so far.
There is going to be a point where the price goes parabolic, at the end of feb is a good chance, so need to watch the charts closely and make sure we are in large on it ready for the explosion.

The pieces do seem to be fitting together nicely though. The current chart pattern would see a peak at the end of feb anyway. Add this to the fact that the rumours are of people going in heavy on march futures, and that there is no way that JPMorgue/China can keep shorting it forever, and all the stars are suddenly aligning. Must be fate.