Tradefair & Financials
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My brain is numb with flu. Fortunately Snow not too bad round here. So far. So I will just hazzard a few simple guesses. Hope you lot will provided some brilliance.
Happy Christams and God help us in the New Year.
I reckon the lack of spending power due to unemployment and wage cuts will cause house prices and hence confidence to fall.
Interest rates cannot rise because it will make the above even worse.
The cut backs should maintain confidence in the pound but the low interst rates will continue pressure on the pound. Everything will be done to maintain the status quo . But it will take a major effort just to keep the pound where it is. We simply cannot have inflation on top of the weak spending power.
Any rise in oil or other basic imports will be very dangerous.
Our economic managament and coordination with other economies will have to be brillant just to keep the outlook at very very bad.
Everyone selling stuff that is a discretionary buy will suffer many go bust. Fuelling unemployment. Internet shopping up;Shopping malls down; due to bargain hunting and people avoiding impulse buys.
It will take very little to push a bad year into a disasterous one. IMO.
More riots and loads of whinging form the GBP. Bankers continue to have us by the short and curlies and will take the p1ss accordingly. Royal wedding attempts to cure all ills.
What do you think?
Happy Christams and God help us in the New Year.
I reckon the lack of spending power due to unemployment and wage cuts will cause house prices and hence confidence to fall.
Interest rates cannot rise because it will make the above even worse.
The cut backs should maintain confidence in the pound but the low interst rates will continue pressure on the pound. Everything will be done to maintain the status quo . But it will take a major effort just to keep the pound where it is. We simply cannot have inflation on top of the weak spending power.
Any rise in oil or other basic imports will be very dangerous.
Our economic managament and coordination with other economies will have to be brillant just to keep the outlook at very very bad.
Everyone selling stuff that is a discretionary buy will suffer many go bust. Fuelling unemployment. Internet shopping up;Shopping malls down; due to bargain hunting and people avoiding impulse buys.
It will take very little to push a bad year into a disasterous one. IMO.
More riots and loads of whinging form the GBP. Bankers continue to have us by the short and curlies and will take the p1ss accordingly. Royal wedding attempts to cure all ills.
What do you think?
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Melv
You keep writing the same thing over and over again. If I were you I would try not to panic. Personally I think things are so bad we will see low interest rates for 5 years and will see inflation start falling towards teh end of 2011. Jobs will go and we are about to get taxed to the eyeballs. In fact you hadnt noticed, the shops are busy and many people are enjoying the lowest mortgage payments in history. These people are expected to keep teh economy going whilst others struggle on. This recovery is going to take a long time, but I can not see house prices fall in teh way that you do.. I think you predict this more in hope than conviction. Have a good Christmas Melv |
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You're brave predicting whats gonna happen in 100 years melv
 (check the thread title).I have to say, I went to the Cribbs Causeway mall this morning and it was nowhere near as busy as it has been the last few years - not sure how much was due to weather though - its not been that bad around Bristol. |
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I predict that by 2111, we'll all be dead.
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aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
 [;)] |
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I think you predict this more in hope than conviction
Actually it would be favour of everyone who owned property if they remained stable the idea of a price rise seems so crazy I won't even consider it. However The mortgage on my home is paid so it is not in my interst for prices to fall. Yeah I do keep repeating myself. I think its cofidence that keeps prices up not some version of supply and demand which justifies those with a vested interest in eternally rising prices to sell moonshine to the youngsters. As I said before Chisel you are fundamental in keeping this epic thread going and I am grateful and a Merry Xmas to you. What I did hope for was some predictions for 2011. I hope some-one else puts one up.I would find it v. intersting. Ifeel to much of a berk to do it now. |
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Silver to hit $100 per oz
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Having a system of ratings from guessers that means governments and central banks lie to keep their position static is doomed. Doomed I tell ya!
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GKP to hit £5 and interest rates to rise 1%. 2 sure things for 2011.
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Euro to strengthen considerably against all major currencies as it replaces the dollar as the new world reserve currency. Oil to hit $130-200 as people lose faith in the dollar and begin to focus on US debt.
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I'd be surprised to see the Euro replace the dollar on a stand alone basis. Maybe part of a basket of currencies and gold.
I think we'll see 10% inflation next year, commodities continue to rise and the fed to fire at least one more dose of quantative easing into the market. I think we'll see the COMEX default on silver and gold as the Asians get nervous about the fed's intentions and demand physical delivery of their huge amounts of metal and the fractional reserve COMEX won't be able to handle it leading to a physical shortage and a huge rise in prices. This may sound like delusions and hopes of an investor long in gold and silver, but believe me, I don't want the economy to go to the wall and see here what happened in Argentina. I'd rather my metal went to 10% of its worth now and the economy improved dramatically but I don't see it. |
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gold to finish below 1400
silver to finish below 29 usd to strengthen euro to hold its own oil to hang around 100 QE 3/4/5 interest rates to rise usa economy to surprise to the upside ben bernake to shave his beard off for charity melly to crawl away and spend most of 2011 in the foetal position. |
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Okay, has this forum turned into "the comedy hour" and I didn't get the memo?
Mr Bean making financial predictions is akin to gypsy fortune teller writing code for linux. |
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Come on lads, make a truce please. All you're doing now is taking shots at each other. You both make some interesting points to be considered, lets not ruin it with this bickering.
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i've been dead for at least three decades.
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we ll probably see some tightening coming from asia and spilling into the rest of the world. which shud result into lower aud, lower metals, lower commodites, probably stronger usd especially vs yen and commodity ccy ( while eurusd could even rally if focus not anymore on pigs, or at least live a life of its own ).
my best ccy reccomendations ( risk adjusted ) are for lower audcad ( about 10%, asia tightening trade, to low 90s ), higher usdyen ( about 10-15%, to mid 90s, possible usd strenghtening trade ) and lower chf/sek ( looking for a 10-15% move, recovery trade, you can play it agst nok or pln as well ). cny to beat the current ndf level and appreciate 2-3% more than priced. gold to 1250 but oil to remain supported by economic recovery ( so maybe play even a short zar/mxn ). spx to hit 1325 in q1 to trade sideways afterwards. sterling to appreciate agst most ccies, with gbpaud set to rally significantly. |
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JW, thanks for posting your thoughts. A few questions for you:
1. You mention China tightening (which I agree with) but virtually ignore the impact of a Spain bailout on the euro during 2011 (which in my opinion is a certainty - the markets will not allow them to roll over 170B of debt NOT INCLUDING any new debt that would be required to recapitalize failing banks and cajas) , why? 2. What will be the impact on the USD of further monetization by the FED to bailout bankrupt States and Municipalities? If the FED doesn't bail them out, who does and how? 3. What would be the impact on the GBP if UKG borrowing continues to exceed market expectations like it did last quarter (in other words, austerity is joke played on the market)? 4. Gold to 1250, why? Will gold stop behaving like a currency in 2011 like it did all through 2010 and revert back to being a commodity? If yes, why? 5. Oil price holding up supported by economic recovery? What recovery? Please specify. TYIA |
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love your post JW. If things play out as you suggest all your predictions will come true more or less.
However I doubt if the china tightening will have an impact at these low levels.Internal demand there is still expanding.Deposit rates there are still with a 1% handle. Interest rates in china would need to go up substantially to make an impact.If demand for commodities did in fact fall the fall in the AUD would be big.Our AUD is over parity at the moment and look vulnerable at these levels. Agree- gold is going to finish the year lower. S&P earnings are alleged to come in around 94$ so 1325 may be at the low end. p.s.-- ignore melly, he is only interested in picking posts to pieces.He has nothing to offer. |
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In another startling Mr Bean expose, water found to be wet.
p.s. Mr Bean, your posts are by far the easiest to pick to pieces because they never contain anything of value.......but they do make me laugh. |
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And yours do contain something of value? I've never actually seen you post anything interesting. All you do is insult other people's views without ever offering any of your own.
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sorry it s going to be v short and i ll elaborate another time.
but in a nutshell. economic recovery still led by asia - in fact needing tightening - shud provide support for oil. other metals and gold demand shud come lower because of this tightening, we all agree gold is a ccy - in fact i believe other metals are behaving like ccies too these days, or in other words are bought mainly as store of value - so liquidity drying up will lower the demand for this dversification. aud shud suffer the most. i agree europe - and the uk, and the us municipalities - are stil in need of fiscal consolidation, which means i didnt make my mind up in terms of euro itself, but most of the troubles are already priced in by the markets, both in terms of cds and ccy levels. dollar shud be stronger considering the lower demand for commodities and commodity ccies, and because of the strong corporate earnings ( corporates have been the big winners of this qe story it seems ) which soon shud mean the us could enjoy a -for the 1st time- supply driven recovery! we ll continue next yr, enjoy tonight all! |
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JW, thanks for your response.
There's a little inconsistency in explanation. Why are euro sovereign solvency issues and US State bankruptcy issue "priced in" but China tightening is not? Regardless, I wish you the best in your trades in 2011. The foundation of mine will be the belief that there's no real recovery. The affect of newly printed money showered on the financial sector can only take you so far. None of the underlying issues have been dealt with, just papered over, and as far as I know the CB's haven't discovered a way to defy gravity yet. It's not a matter of "if", it's a matter of "when". |
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the 'recovery' is merely a blood transfusion. the patient is terminal
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2111
PM-pricewises great great grandson school-betting taught at primary level tote-£1000 lowest bet NHS-sold to paddy power racing post-sold to cosmopoliton bookies-free tea with a multibet channel4 racing-scoop7 |
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Sackings and buisness closures increasing and it hasn't even started yet.
What happens when the falliing spending power from the unemployed cawsue more buisness closures. I vicious downward spiral. Or the private sector just picks up the slack. I really do not see what slack there will be to pick up in an economy with no purchasing power. Looking as bad as expected. |
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A vicious downward spiral.
The Tories blame it all on Labour and look forward to managing a low wage economy where everyone's simply grateful to have a job. If indeed they have one. |
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Mrben
gold to finish below 1400 now 1360 silver to finish below 29 now 28.30 usd to strengthen not yet happened euro to hold its own holding its own oil to hang around 100 90 QE 3/4/5 not yet interest rates to rise started usa economy to surprise to the upside started ben bernake to shave his beard off for charity melly to crawl away and spend most of 2011 in the foetal position. already happened.[;)] I'm going well.Nice start to the year.Especially melly losing the plot totally.[:D][:D] |
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Inflation galloping ahead. Interest rates rise in May if not sooner.
Interest rates plus high taxes plus pay cuts plus unemployment mean house price falls. Some time after this the GBP confidence in house prieces collapses and the real recesssion starts. |
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@ Mr Bean
I must admit I'm tremendously impressed with the accuracy of some of your macro trends for 2011 an entire............wait for it............ 17 days into the year. Just hang on now for another 348 days and you might manage not to embarrass yourself yet again. "usa economy to surprise on the upside started" . Really???? As usual, you couldn't be more wrong. Did you see this in a vision while you were asleep again, or do you have any empirical data that you can share that supports your statement? I won't hold my breath for an explanation, it will be a while until you take your foot out of your mouth on this one......just like how money gets created.......or hyperinflation.......or CPI........or just about every other piece of drivel you posted on here. P.S. : "euro to hold its own" will be your next major "idiot ball" moment on this forum, just have some patience. |
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the pity for you melly is you lacked the knowledge to make ANY predictions.You cant google that now can you.????????????????
I would have thought you new york economists are full of predictions, but alas, nothing from you.FRAUDSTER. Without doubt you are the most ignorant person to post in the history of posting, and the clueless.When will your lack of self esteem stop you from posting? |
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Here's the ONLY prediction you need to know to profit in 2011: INFLATION
Most of you so called "predictions" which I'm sure you lifted from the business section of the Brisbane Courier Mail are correlated and non-events. They are also very wrong, but then again we've come to expect that from you. You never respond to the substance of my posts and always skirt the issue with yet another vile post. Post the empirical data that supports your erroneous statement that the American economy is surprising to the upside. Otherwise, it will become apparent to even those few who haven't clued in yet who the REAL FRAUDSTER is on here |
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Menelaus
Most of you so called "predictions" which I'm sure you lifted from the business section of the Brisbane Courier Mail [:D][:D] how the hell would you know the main paper here is the courier mail?oh yeh, YOU LOOKED IT UP ON GOOGLE!!!!!! Like you look up everything else. Problem is melly, that paper has no business section.You dumb fukker.Google didnt tell you that did it? That hole is just getting deeper and deeper.Keep posting- its interesting watching your trying to cover up your fraud.Inept, but interesting. |
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Mr Bean, the empirical data you posted supporting your dumb statement that the American economy is recovering is overwhelming.
I guess WE ALL know now who the FRAUDSTER really is, thanks for clearing that up. |
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Was down south last week. A local book shop chain has gone bust. A local greengocer was on the radio saying that if the book shop is not saved he will close down his buisness. All ready sunny Sussex is beggining to have its shopping precincts developing that snaggle toothed look that i am famialr with from 1980,s Salford.
Yesterday the Guardian pointed out that a host of reatilers are in the same state as book shops. Depressing local shopping areas = confidence down= fall in house prices=collapse in everything. |
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since the dawn of time, businesses have gone out pf business. I wouldn't be too worried (n the year 2011, a year after the year of the iPod/kindle) that a bookstore went out of business.
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Not just book shops. Shops selling, CD's DVD's,games and anything else thats cheaper, has a wider choice or is more convenaint on the internet.
The point being the gaps left on the high street by all these buisness wil be firther depressing in every. AS I said before my predcition for this year is many downward spirals. |
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when everyone is debted up and with worthless non productive loans like mortgages and cosumer debt ill give you one guess as to who gets that certain disposable income... ill give you a clue it doesnt start with local retailers.
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it's just the continuation of a trend, and small business has always had high attrition, DVDs etc have been superseded by streaming, there's plenty of businesses and sectors to get out of but there are also always plenty of new trends to get in at.
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Just read my opening. Saddly accurate so far.
More riots and loads of whinging from the GBP. In todays news the unions getting ready to kick off over pensions. The students taste for kicking off will also not go away. The GBP will not like the kicking off. This will play into the hand of the Tories. I forsee a year of discontent blamed on Blair and especially browm resulting in Tory triumphalism. So what economically do the tories want. They wany a dramatic recovery a year or so before the election. This would be heped by us all being dramtically fkd for the next couple of years so that the Tories will have a nice low mark to recover from. All set for a very bad year all round, low wages, fighting in the streets, unemployment, house price falls etc blamed on Gordon and this will suit the Tories fine. I'm getting a kindle. |
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Has Chisel got a new job these days?
Melv nailed it by the looks of things! |