Tradefair & Financials
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An exchange rate of 1.20 is available at the moment. Is there a general consensus of likely future movements?
I know it's a million dollar question and anyone knowing the definitive answer would be filthy rich but input appreciated.
tia
ps. Or any useful websites.
I know it's a million dollar question and anyone knowing the definitive answer would be filthy rich but input appreciated.
tia
ps. Or any useful websites.
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I'm going for a small increase to 1.30 - 1.40 by next year. I'm also gambling for euro v dollar parity by the summer of 2011.
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thx
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Germany in much better shape than uk!
See a summer move limited to 1.25Euro per Pound -but would not bet on it! Then back down to the 1.08-1.14 range for the rest of the year. |
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On the euro/dollar -its not all Euro weakness!-If US figures -employment- look bad then 1.28 is possible in weeks!
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american figures start to look bad, house sales today were horrible, which means that the 'american recovery' is stalling. W shape anyone? now that fiscal stimuli have been banned, look for monetary easing everywhere in the world. and in normal circumstances, huge liquidity doesnt bode well for the usd. a trip to 1.15 is possible in eurusd, but watch your short as we could see 1.30 instead.
eurgbp? everyone buying sterling as triple AAA rating seem to be confirmed, but how they can imagine to achieve those gdp fiures with those measures, it s a mystery. 1.25 ( or 0.80, if you re a forex trader ) can be the target, but look no further than that. for a long time. |
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pure guesswork. they're all steadily descending to worthlessness, just as differing rates that are purely based on unpredictable market sentiment
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*at
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It's all a bit confusing upside down to me, but I see 80p going and would stay short Eurosterling.
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Eur/Usd looks like it's going up and may take out those waiting to short again at 1.25. Trendline broken, strong move that has had a small retracement. Maybe even around 1.277 before it has serious resistance?
The only problem is that V bottoms are pretty rare. After a good trendline is broken it usually goes back to it or breaks it for a double bottom, to mug out the latecomers. |