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Biodiesel
22 Jun 10 18:39
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Date Joined: 04 May 05
| Topic/replies: 1,195 | Blogger: Biodiesel's blog
Have just taken a short on the Dow, in the money already, we should have a soft pull back at least, wel see how it closes today.

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Replies: 120
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 22 Jun 10 19:15
Yeah, I just had a sell stop kick in at 10402.  I think it's risk though, I was looking at 10600 odd before the next local 'top'.  It might be a bit early, but some time soon.   I have shorted Ford Motor Co. though - think there's some good potential there if/when it all goes back down.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 22 Jun 10 19:39
I know Chanos has a bearish view on it,what are your own reasons? how much did the cash for clunkers add to its bottom line.What price target have you earmarked. Ford has targeted India as a source of major growth. Was in India last yr for a month, the place has mind blowing potential.

The short is doing good, dont have any price targets really, wait till the stochastic tells me to get out.Iam still kinda bearish on everything
By:
Biodiesel
When: 22 Jun 10 20:02
Jaayus 120pt drop, Sweet!
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 22 Jun 10 20:20
Yes, just came back to say the same.  Looking good.  I now have two short clips come online.  It's offsetting my losses on the footy and then some.  ;)
By:
Biodiesel
When: 22 Jun 10 20:30
In the footy I find my match bets were providing too many random results, but all my group bets are looking very good.
Id like to look back at it but lay the tv pundits opinions and ul be well up!
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 23 Jun 10 09:56
Make or break today on the Dow (as well as the footy).  I see somewhere around 10430 as time to cut short-term shorts.  I will keep a short on Ford though as it's a longer-term trade.
By:
Pastie
When: 23 Jun 10 10:21
Anyone got any ideas on Eur/USD?

My signals are all mixed - 5min, 15mins, bearish, 1 hour bullish, 4 hour bearish but turning up, daily bullish but turning down!

Might just scalp using the 5min and 15min charts until the Footer.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 23 Jun 10 11:48
stayed out when the daily spot closed out, dont know will we have one today but about 3hrs before the close if heirs a bit of nervouness then some sharp drops could be played.

EUR/USD, a bullish 1hr an Id might go long, if it breaks its current support then id exit
By:
chisel
When: 23 Jun 10 11:51
This is a Bull market. The only way is up!
By:
Biodiesel
When: 23 Jun 10 12:41
Goin by my own indicators china is borderline entering a bear market. Think the Dow will range trade for while then signs that the stimulus is waining combine that with China slowdown, choppy days ahead.
By:
Pastie
When: 23 Jun 10 14:51
There are rumours of a French downgrade so Eur heads down! I might short after a retracement.
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 24 Jun 10 08:55
Short-term trend is well underway now, Bio.  I am still short looking for a test of 10,000 again maybe this week, probably next.  If there's a relief late on Friday, I will add some short to the rally.  Still short Ford and thinking about shorting Apple too.  Queues were huge this morning in London for iPhone4, but I think it's all priced in.
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 25 Jun 10 15:07
Ford short is a nicer trade than the wider index.  It's trending down without as much volatility.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 29 Jun 10 17:07
nice retracement!! pitty I didnt stay in to catch more of the move, might get a rebound thur/fri
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 29 Jun 10 17:38
I made 27k today just on the Dow. :D
By:
Biodiesel
When: 29 Jun 10 18:31
u jammy bastard!! WD!! Whats d next call, what made u hit into it so hard??
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 29 Jun 10 20:05
It's a mirror of the June 10 price action on the daily candle chart.  I had stops to open shorts below the market and they got triggered around 0430 in the morning when an SMS woke me up.  By the time I was eating my omlette I was up 4k.

I'm flat now, but if I do anything for tomorrow I'm looking at buying the daily range.  I think it could be a choppy day and possibly a few choppy days around 9800, but I'm basically in 'sell rallies' mode now probably for the next couple of months.  It's not clear whether the last three weeks were a shoulder to match the 10Jan10 shoulder yet.  If it is, then the next stop is 9000 by Aug/Sep in a gradual decline.
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 29 Jun 10 20:06
I stopped out of my Ford Motor Co short a bit early I think (although no regrets as it was a sensible stop).  I'll look to sell that again in smalls on any rallies too.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 29 Jun 10 20:24
yea I be the same but Ill buy the extreme sell offs aswell. How do you get SMS alerts
By:
Biodiesel
When: 29 Jun 10 20:32
when the markets are nervous and their after clawing back losses then the the last 3hrs of trading you catch some nice breaks/sell offs
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 30 Jun 10 09:31
Good call on Apple, Goering.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 30 Jun 10 09:52
time to buy em again
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 30 Jun 10 12:28
Biodiesel, I'm a novice but I can see how important it is to get in step, and in this regard timing is everything. It's like marching, if you start on the right foot, it is much much easier. The French have a phrase for it, no doubt.
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 30 Jun 10 19:57
Bio - about the SMS.  I use IG and you can set unlimited (free) SMS for price levels from their site.  Pretty useful.
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 30 Jun 10 19:59
Yeah biccies, but I didn't get the Apple trade on...  Never mind.  Still probably a slight negative for the short term, imo.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 01 Jul 10 11:34
Cheers Goring, I use IG and never knew that.

Tried going long yesterday but it failed to move up.Iam a little unsure where this market is going, I think we could touch 9500 or Oct lows,it could build a base to go long again. Looks like were setting ourselves up for another down leg, the latter hours of the trading day will tell all.

U.S Unemployment data also being released today, so this will be a driver either way.

Apple is a bull, wer only a couple months away from the christmas retailing season, Apple products will be the number one item, Iam not into gadgets I still have a crappy phone, but Iam getting the ipad in the coming weeks, that says enough to me!!
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 01 Jul 10 12:42
Yeah, I can only see the data disappointing to be honest.  I will be trying to take a short wing-ding off them again just in case.  I think the direction is still down, but I'm nervous about being short because we've had however many down days in a row now.  There's room for a big pop, but it will be a sell.  Happy hunting...
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 01 Jul 10 12:43
I think all the Apple upside is priced in though, matey.  Watch it.
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 01 Jul 10 15:48
How's it going in the short camp?  Blimey, I'm short equities again, nice and long bonds and my Gold hedge has kicked in against my physical holding.  Must be some serious liquidations for Gold to go with it.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 01 Jul 10 18:48
Had to make a visit to mate in hospital, **** it I was looking to short that broken trendline that I had in.

What the hell happened gold???
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 01 Jul 10 18:51
Bit of fund liquidation, maybe to cover equity margins.  I'll like to see it come back more and pick some up anywhere in the mid 11s.
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 01 Jul 10 18:52
Leave orders in the system.  IG is pretty good with the contingent stops etc.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 01 Jul 10 18:53
What d hell happened the euro!! Dollar weakness on its way, more stimulus
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 01 Jul 10 19:52
Bodiesel - I reckon Apple will be back down to $200 soon enough. $250 now
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 01 Jul 10 20:20
I think it's follow on from the ECB rollovers.  Remember there were a lot of Euro shorts due to the impending defaults and that got priced in just in time for the Euro banks to rollover only 130bn of the 250bn which came due.  The consequence is that loose policy in Europe may be over soon - certaintly sooner than the US give the jobs report.  Hence - dump 'risky' assets.  I'm guessing for a week or just over of this type of scenario now and then look to go long Gold again for the push to $1400.
By:
Biodiesel
When: 01 Jul 10 20:55
I missed that 100+ dow move, blast it!! Covering short my gold position. Id like to buy Gold now but experience has told me not to, support of 1170, blast off then!!
By:
Mrben
When: 02 Jul 10 01:20
gold plummeted on the need for funds for short covering.it should resume its northward direction soon.Superfast traders hit the dow again.I read recently that about 70% of volume is now due to "rapid traders". I feel another short term rally coming on.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 02 Jul 10 11:21
Mrben - thanks for the tip, that's good enough for me.
By:
V4 Vendetta
When: 02 Jul 10 18:06
I would buy Gold on opening stops above the market though.  I could see the low 1100s before we push on and I don't think there's any rush, it could be a month or so of grinding lower on a weekly basis.  On the other hand, I might be totally wrong. :)
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