Head and Shoulders in the Dow?

Yeah, we're looking at the same minima.  Obviously whatever pattern it turns out to be will be in retrospect and a double bot would be confirmed before a h&s as a necessary precursor.  If we go back up though, I see new year highs over 11500 but that we will have to come lower by the end of the year.

difficult to tell.  i think the recline is actually the trend.  the previous gains could just be a bear rally - so potentially we're still on the way down.  altenatively the bear rally (which really im certain it is) could restart and continue for some time - really it depends on policy.  so im out still for the min pending further info. gd call a few weeks back though saying get out for 3 weeks or so at min eh :)

h and s plus diverging rsis are giving strong signals for the equities to go up.
on top something very interesting is happening in the fx markets. china ndfs are for the 1st time in a long time flat on the curve, ie no revaluation of the remimbi is priced in. thats because the chinese are pssd off at the fact the germans are getting away with a very cheap currency and they saying they wont revalue here.
but thats the problem. the chinese ccy HAS to appreciate to eliminate the global imbalances that led to the 1st leg of the crises back in 08 ( american current accoutn neg, and too high consumption in the us coupled with too high savings in china )
so what could happen now.. lets imagine:
the euro slowly slowly has to go back to a level where the chinese will finally find it ok to let their ccy revalue ( the look at eurrmb as much as usdrmb ), call it 1.3000-1.3200.
in order to achieve that the spin records will have to play: "europeans are doing what they need to", "imf promotes greek and iberian efforts", "warren buffet loves the btps and the bonos", maybe even a "moodys upgrade a spanish bank" shocker.
the markets will rally on these kind of news and hype, and the s&p even more as us corporates would look less stressed by the strong ccy.
all of sudden 1200 on the index doesnt look far away. and so a 5-10% upmove in commodity ccies, emk, the lot.

what happens after the summer is a different story.

surely the euro has not seen all it's problems yet.  spain is toast.  fitch just cut its rating to aa+.  prepare for big moves down imo.

frankly recent reports describing the spanish banking industry as resilient are blx.  they said the same about greece.  i cant see any rating upgrade on spanish banks.

and it looks to me more like the imf is steering collapse and hiding it. it has already indeed come out with such spin johnnie so i guess it will soon be seen for the failure and incompentent institution (if not something more sinister) that it is.