Is this the calm before the storm for the UK housing market

yeah, but what about the fact governments want to cling on for power and engineer a false dawn?

At some point it will be impossible for the Government to prevent the market correcting. As we appear to be close to a sovereign debt crisis this might be soon.
High inflation could still prevent falls in actual house prices even if in real terms they do desperately badly.

being waiting for a disaster in house prices since 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and still it has not happened. So its just about to happen.... what a load of twaddle. The shortage of housing overides the economic mess the country is in.

mortgages may be harder to get but the lenders are relaxing slightly.
also people are not skint despite the reccession.

there is still a demand
especially in London

how much of our economy depends on the price of a house?.......i think we might be in a little trouble..!

approx over 500,000 empty properties in the UK and low take up on the very limited new builds suggest to me the great property demand in this country is over

Unemployment set to rise and major tax rises on the horizon to plug the spending deficit

Only so many tactics a governemnt can use to keep the property markey propped up and a major correction is on the cards IMO

10% fall between Q3 and Q4 this year would be my best guess

While we all deride and mock the spivs in charge of the banks and what not, the jokers in charge at these property firms are the biggest old boys, pat on the back, everything's fine mentality ever. The unforeseen events which will play in the next 18 months will see us test the lows seen in march 2009 without question. That goes for commerical, housing, u name it. But there will be regional variation, and saying prices across the board will fall equally is ludicrous. I wouldn't be buying a property in a secondary area in places like yorkshire, and teeside thats for sure.

one should look at where all the empty properties are in the UK for the major falls

Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds head that list in dear old blighty

demand in London is high
other places may be low

demand in london isn't high

this is a myth. The supply is far outstripping demand

the only reason that the prices have held up is that buyers and sellers can't agree prices

not many houses shifting

"The shortage of housing overides the economic mess the country is in." Great stuff.

i would personally wait until after the election when we can expect a more objective presentation of the countrys finances

but im not expecting anything remotely bullish

Significant risk if incoming administration is Tory that they discover a Greek-style situation - ie vast amounts of off-balance sheet borrowings which have been left of the books. This could be so severe the UK needs an EU or IMF bailout which would allow the government to impose very severe spending cuts (as required by the bailout) whilst blaming the previous government for the mess.

If a new government is going to cut it makes sense to get going ASAP to allow a reasonable chance of recovery before the next election. Against this background housing must suffer.

Pangloss 21 Mar 20:07
Against this background housing must suffer.

relative to what though? problem is, under the circumstances you mention, the currency that the housing is priced in is potentially going to suffer big time too

think i'm exaggerating? have a look at icelands house prices, when denominated in local currency the fall has been relatively small... the fall only looks big when measured in a healthy currency

of course, by 'small', i mean smaller than expected given the circumstances :D

well...if you call a'storm' house prices not being any higher for over a decade, then YES...how that will happen no one knows, but it's almost a fact now it will

If you're underleveraged in a nice, comfortable house, what better place to ride out any type of storm, weather or financial.?
The key to all personal investing is not too overleverage and to be satisfactorily diversified and thus to be able , and more importantly have the confidence and patience, to sit on your investments till they rebound from the inevitable periodic downturns .
You can't pick any market really, good or bad, not in a long term sense.
Traders can and do in a short term sense only. But most of us are, or should be, long term investors.
We are not stock market or property market professionals and probably have too many other calls on our time to be so.

YLB, I like you, Ok?

YLB writing sense...Nothing more to add really!

You know my views. Not going up , not going down. No risks to be taken by government or BOE for prolonged period of time.

The UK is NOT greece.

So I did have a little more to add ...sorry!

"The UK is NOT greece." Very true. Greece is facing up to its problems and cutting its deficit not pretending everything will be alright and carrying on regardless.

Harry

If you think a basket case economy like Greeces is likely to do anything other thna try and get 0% loan for Europe you are mistaken. There is going to be a battle of wills, and Greece is going to hold teh Euorpean Union to ransom to get what it wants. Just like the workers of Greece.

To understand Greece, you need to a ppreciate that Greek workers do ABSOLUTLEY EVERYTHING to get out of paying taxes..

The UK has a slick taxataion system that ensures the government gets revenue quickly. Be it PAYE, VAT, Council Tax, this governemnt can collect taxes , and of course can increase taxes and get the benefit of those rises VERY quickly.. You can not knock the UK for the majority of its tax collection systems!

This countrys problem isnt collecting taxes it is paying too much out in benefits.. Tax Credits are an absolute JOKE. I have seen divorced women with two children being paid £700-£800 a month in tax credits alone. And they work with decent salaries.

chisel 23 Mar 15:56
Harry

If you think a basket case economy like Greeces is likely to do anything other thna try and get 0% loan for Europe you are mistaken. There is going to be a battle of wills, and Greece is going to hold teh Euorpean Union to ransom to get what it wants. Just like the workers of Greece.

To understand Greece, you need to a ppreciate that Greek workers do ABSOLUTLEY EVERYTHING to get out of paying taxes..

as opposed to just the wealthy in the uk.

sounds like chancellor may raise stamp duty threshold to £250K. like a 1% saving is going to make a difference as to whether you buy or not

Billy

Everything helps!!

Just ask Morrisons whee even a little bit helps!

d13phe 20 Mar 22:32


demand in london isn't high

this is a myth. The supply is far outstripping demand

the only reason that the prices have held up is that buyers and sellers can't agree prices

not many houses shifting

drove through an area the other day and 3 houses sold within 50 yards of each other.
another 2 just round the corner and noticed quite a few in the local area.

then drove through a very rich area not far away and there were far more renting boards up than for sale or sold boards up.
not really a lot of selling action in those types of areas.

so what people are really looking for is property in an area which has houses in the region of 300k to 400k with the emphasis under 350k


suggests people are worried about a downside on higher priced properties

the demand for the not too desireable properties has gone up.

explains why mine went for 30k more than i expected

Whats the criteria for being a 1st time buyer ? I sold up about 3 years ago and rented since, if i wanted to buy again would i qualify as 1TB ?

I own a property on my own but want to buy another with my wife as a joint mortgage she would be a first time buyer so would we be classed as 1st time buyers

I dont think our mickey mouse government have thought about this how can they regulate it?

According to radio4 this morning, no one who has previously owned a property anywhere in the World (dont ask me how you police that)
And no one who is in a relationship with a current or previous owner.

It is hilarious actually!. They bought this in at midnight last night, but completions are happening today and tomorrow , and solicitors have not got a clue!!

I was thinking about buying but after considering everything i am convinced the housing price crash is going to be a two pronged affair- the second part of which is still to come. Its just a matter of when. Artificially low interest rates has just delayed the inevitable second wave of the housing price crash.

Low interest rates are just holding back the supply side of the equation while new sensible lending requirements by banks will mean demand will never be what it was.

Low interest rates may be here for a while but as long as they are it will mean the economy is in a mess and demand will be low.

The housing market will only return to true value prices when the economy picks up and pushes up interest rates. As soon as that starts the second wave of house price fall will begin due to supply outweighing demand.

I have decided to wait to buy until such time as this cycle of events have fully taken place. It will probably be two years after a period of sustained economic regowth.

I cant wait for the second and hardest hitting wave of this present downturn. I think everyone should feel the same. To think otherwise is just to delay the inevitable.

have we had a property crash... not noticed

paddletoe

some sensible comments

i am in the same boat. sitting on a very nice deposit

im convinced that the public sector wil lbe hit hard after the election and i think thats where the housing market will hit hard times.

we have a huge public sector who have not really seen the recession as of yet.

its going to be a harsh reality in the back end of this year and there is nothing the unions will be able to do about it imo

The fall in public sector workers coupled with a rise in interest rates will be very worrying times for our economy which is essentially built on house prices

Some those who are buying are investing in property as curent interest rates are p!ss poor in terms of returns, once IR start going up, these investors will cease buying as much property and return to saving and investments elsewhere

I am not looking to buy a house at the bottom of the market to make money when the capital value of houses starts to rise again. I just want to be secure in the knowledge that the capital value of the house i buy is secure which will make modest returns when i want to sell and move on sometime.

I want the speculators out of the market. Things need to get to the stage where people who speculated in houses four years ago as an investment are eventually hit by higher interest rates and are forced to sell. At the minute they are not. But they have to pay the piper sometime because they should never have got mortgages in the first place.

From the sellers point of view they need to realise that the value placed on their houses 3 years ago was only a paper value and they need to get realistic about the true worth of their houses. They need to realise they were sold a pup and take the hit on the chin.

Paddletoe

There will always be speculators!! Some would call them investors, or property professionals!!

Fact is that if you are a normal home buyer, chances are that you will not see massive hous price growth for the forseeable future. On the flip side, I hope that you will also be able to buy with the confidence that your home isnt going to drop in value. Surely this is all anyone can ask!

I know there will always be speculators but the 1990's created a new form of speculators who were more interested in making a big capital gain instead of making a stable family home.

While indivually these people can not be culpible for what was to follow the aggregate affect of their reckless borrowing has created the mess we are in.

Banks giving out 100% mortgages was criminal but unfortunately banks can hold a whole economy and countries to ransom.

It may be unfortunate for a lot of indivuals but a lot of houses need to be reposessed. The sooner it happens the better and thats the kind of speculators i am talking about. Because these amateur speculators who over borrowed and relied on capital gains need to feel the pain.

If that sounds harsh spare a thought for the innocent by standers in all this who so far have been the only ones to feel any pain. I am talking about pensioners who have seen savings earning almost no interest and lots of ordinary folk who have lost their jobs.

And yes chisel i want to buy a house with confidence but at the moment i have none. In my mind we are still in a phony recession with governments holding their finger in the dyke. Things need to get worse in the housing market before they can get better. A lot of fantasy money needs to be wiped of the value of houses and i dont want it to be mine.

Paddletoe

Houses are affordable in many areas now!

Going forward modest house price growth/stagnation could catually see the value of a home fall in real terms.. I think now is not a bad time to buy a home, although I do agree that it is clear the Mortgage lending needs to return at higher loan to values if you can truly buy with confidence. If you have teh choice I do not think you will do any harm if you wait and see what happens in teh next 6 months. I am sure you will still be able to buy the same home for teh same money in 6 months as you can now..

Maybe you should have bought this time last year? Prices were 17% down on a year earlier at £147746 ... Average price is now £164519!...Missed the boat? Would you buy if prices were 17% lower than today..

House price sin my area in london are now above peak levels with a house on our street on the market for 25% more than any house sold during the peak. And I know of other areas in London where prices are the same. I'm baffled by it but there doesn't seem to be any hangover in London on the property side from the credit crunch.

Irishlad

I can not disagree with you abouit London..It is absolutely**ers. I had a Solicitor client buy a 1 bed flat last year for £360000. Apparently it is now roth £400k... MAD

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2009/Mar/Money-Week_clip_image001.jpg

my favourite graph.

says it all when it comes to speculating markets. I know where we stand at the moment in my view.

reagan

do u think we are at ' return to normal ' ?

Who do u think are buying all these properties in London for 400k? Bankers, foreigners/cash buyers. Nice to see our bail out money goes to overinflating the housing market again. London is away on its own, the regions are in big trouble, bognor regis aside. Chisel knows credit is short to pieces for 5 years, we need the medicine before were forced to take it by the markets.

indeed Mikaad. i know plenty of cash-rich HK-chinese who are piling into the London market now

they dont see the market as high, because sterling has crashed... to them, with their USD-denominated purchasing power, London property seems dirt cheap

sub,

That sounds dangerous to me. Out of interest are they expecting property to go up or the pound to strengthen or both, because I can't see the angle, I don't think you can expect much of a rental yield? Or is this the case of too much money chasing to few assets?

Washington - all kinds of reasons, mainly revolving around the historic links between the HK-Chinese and the UK, very weak GBP, and easy money in HK

some, as you say, are rolling in cash from the China boom etc, and are happy to park it in any assets they can

others want buy-to-lets

still others want foreign second homes

and theres always quite a few buying flats for their kids (since many HK-Chinese send their kids to UK for education)

so they are active in pretty much the entire spectrum of the London property market, from luxury west-end pads down to student accomodation

the London property market has always attracted this kind of hot money from abroad