Forums

Tradefair & Financials

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Mrben
18 Mar 10 04:25
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 5,929 | Blogger: Mrben's blog
Hers a cut and paste from an aussie stockbroker service.


China playing with fire
By Alan Kohler

March 15, 2010

PORTFOLIO POINT: A trade war with the US would ruin Chinas economy, and therefore Australias.


Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is playing a dangerous game by upping the ante in the Cold War of words with the United States over exchange rates. And its a game in which Australia, and Eureka Report members, are more than interested spectators: we are on the field, in danger of being trampled by elephants blinded by rage.

China seems to have persuaded itself that its already a superpower that doesnt need anyone else, least of all yesterdays superpower, America. Over the weekend Premier Wen lashed out at the world over the pressure on China to let its currency rise:
Pause Switch to Standard View China- the currency manipulation is...
Show More
Loading...
Report gatespeed March 18, 2010 8:54 AM GMT
Hahaha cmon mate...

Who do u think is the real loser if China breaks its currency peg which would ultimately lead to a rising Yuan??
Report Mrben March 18, 2010 12:20 PM GMT
gatespeed, the biggest loser will be australia.We aint go nothing but what we dig out of the ground here.
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY March 18, 2010 4:09 PM GMT
Thy've got you Mr B.
Or are you just a one -off ?.
If not, then it is also a nation of stock wizards, it would seem.
Report caleyjags March 18, 2010 6:42 PM GMT
Everything about that is opposite of reality. Was this written by CIA?
Report subversion March 18, 2010 7:06 PM GMT
well MrBen? bullish or mud huts? you havent got a clue have you?
Report subversion March 18, 2010 7:40 PM GMT
i have 2 simple questions for you, MrBen, since you seem to enjoy cutting and pasting that kind of shallow analysis and then drawing strong inferences from it

i) why do you think the Chinese leadership is unaware of the unsustainability of the 'status quo'?

ii) what makes you so sure that their ultimate focus is economic?
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY March 18, 2010 9:08 PM GMT
There must be an article somewhere he can dig up to answer these tricky questions ?
But in reality he is just a seat of the pants trader end of.
Let it be Sub.
Nothing to be gained in exposing his or anyone's intellectual limits, is there ?
I think most of us on here take Mr B quite lightly and inoffensively.
I may be wrong on this as usual of course.
I do have perhaps an appropriate little, light hearted phrase for Mr B though.
" Put a mirror at the end of your bed and wake up to yourself ".
Report subversion March 18, 2010 9:38 PM GMT
let it be? nah, wheres the fun in that?

call it a curiosity about what makes these quaint little xenophobes tick
Report Mrben March 18, 2010 11:03 PM GMT
actually the article was written by the head of finance of TV station ABC.He is also a freelance financial journalist writing for the the , what shall i say,less middle class publications.
As a result he is not constrained by mainstream media propaganda requirements.Far from it"the opposite of reality" it is the reality.Mainstream media is giving you the opposite of reality.Interestingly if anyone posts anything that is not the commonly held view he is descended upon as being intellectually inferior.It is now clear and apparent that my knockers are the same knockers ofanyone with a different view,from being intellectually superior are merely stooges of the commonly held view.
No matter what is posted here, cut and paste articles,opinions, views , all you ever hear from the intellectually superior is that it is wrong.They however can rarely offer an alternative.Not once have the academics here offered a trade of any desription.They are pre-occupied with the poster rather than the facts/opinions on offer.Basically they are weak minded and easily led .They are in fact so easliy manipulated that I will, in the future weeks post a thread that is the opposite of the common view expressly for the purpose of drawing them into telling me how wrong I am.Just for fun.
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY March 18, 2010 11:14 PM GMT
Doesn't the ABC lose money hand over fist ?
Irrelevant Mr B but I couldn't resist.
I think that by the time any opinion appears in the public news domain, it is in the rubbish bin of history.
You can probably trade the markets just as well if you never read any opinion pieces.
I don't post any trades on here simply because I see no personal benefit in doing it, unless I am front running someting or doing something nasty like that.
I don't follow you into your trades and I certainly wouldn't want or expect anybody to follow me into my trades.
If you are posting on here to get your ego stroked, then you're wasting your time.
As I 've said before, public forums are shooting galleries.
Like it or leave it.
Just don't whinge about it.
Report subversion March 18, 2010 11:25 PM GMT
here are some alternatives i was glancing through just a couple of days ago MrBen (or anyone else who may or may not give a sh!t)

was after something came to my attention in a HK-chinese newspaper that my interest was piqued


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3319909.ece

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/commodities/article.jsp?content=20091012_10008_10008

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/7397846/Kings-Cross-to-Beijing-in-two-days-on-new-high-speed-rail-network.html

notice this little snippet - We would actually prefer the other countries to pay in natural resources rather than make their own capital investment.

the Chinese govt are aware that they are in an unsustainable situation. its clear that the status quo offers them many benefits however, but they are trading the paper assets for 'hard' assets as quickly as they can without rocking the boat

all this 'belligerence' is just the Chinese govt stonewalling and misdirecting to try and keep the charade going for as long as possible... and many Western fools seem to keep falling for it


this 'game', for China, isn't just about economics... ultimately, it is about power... and if you can draw the link between their rapid industrialization, their quest to secure global resources, and their amazingly rapid recent gains in military manufacturing and technology, you might start to see whats really going on here


does that qualify as an alternative? anyway, thats enough engaging of the brain on serious topics for one evening
Report Menelaus March 19, 2010 7:40 AM GMT
Sub, thanks for posting those links. Another great source of information on China is economist Michael Pettis, take the time to visit his blog if you haven't already done so, I think you'll find it interesting.

http://mpettis.com/
Report subversion March 19, 2010 12:34 PM GMT
M - that guy seems to know what he's talking about (far more than the shallow cr*p at the start of this thread anyway)...

but i still think the whole China view is going to be distorted if you don't take into account the fact that they have an agenda that goes beyond economics

their end-game doesn't just involve being a manufacturing power. it involves being a military power. and their economy is being deliberately skewed to bring this about as rapidly as possible, by putting in place the infrastructure and know-how for their own military-industrial complex (and succeeding)

they aren't going about acquiring all these overseas resource 'colonies' without developing in parallel the means to secure them if/when things unravel

all imo, of course
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY March 19, 2010 12:40 PM GMT
And of course the US State Dept is completely unaware of these thoughts and theories ?
Everything macro like this is always immersed in political machinations.
Nothing new in that is there ?
Can't see how to turn any of these ideas into sure-fire money winners though.
Can you? Sure-fire that is.
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY March 19, 2010 12:42 PM GMT
Apart from getting out of the mud hut construction business, that is.
Report subversion March 19, 2010 3:10 PM GMT
YOULITTLEBOTTY 19 Mar 13:40
And of course the US State Dept is completely unaware of these thoughts and theories ?


of course they arent unaware YLB, what an odd thing to say... you can find quotes from all kinds of US officials pontificating about exactly this problem

since China obviously cant compete with US ability to project power globally, they seem to be starting off by acquiring enough raw, precision firepower to keep US carrier groups as far away from China as possible, so they can dominate their local area

plenty of interesting info and research papers around on this

then again, from Chinas perspective, its just defending itself against US imperialism... after all, its the US with troops on Chinas borders, not the other way around

what can the US do about this? without bringing the current economic charade between the US and China to a halt, its hard to say

and as to how to profit from this... thats an entirely different discussion isnt it
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY March 19, 2010 3:42 PM GMT
No Sub my point, facetiousy put I admit, was that the US State Dept and, in fact, any and all other " serious " China analysts know exactly about all this important angle to this debate.
As such in all likelihood the markets have pretty much factored it in, as markets tend to do, and that there would be no obvious way to profit from it.
However I do agree that it is entirely relevant for you to have raised these crtitical matters on here given, as you say, the rather shallow nature of the opening remarks to this thread.
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY March 19, 2010 3:45 PM GMT
Sorry on reading what I have just posted, it sounds a trifle pompous, to say the least.
Would have been best if I had just said good posting Sub. Very relevant.
Report subversion March 19, 2010 3:57 PM GMT
well YLB, my HK industrialist contacts might know something, some of them might even own chinese factories which are part of the supply chain for all i know

i can just imagine that kind of question going down well over a few beers in Wan Chai... 'so mate, when are you shipping those parts for the PLAs aircraft carriers?' :D

but even so, investing directly in any kind of business in China, especially one so 'close' to the states interests, is not my cup of tea

too much risk of some corrupt insider muscling in and helping themselves to the lot
Report melv March 19, 2010 4:37 PM GMT
Again this forum is miles ahead of the politics lot. Totally diferrent class.Grown up really.

Bravo everybody.
Report YOULITTLEBOTTY March 19, 2010 6:43 PM GMT
Exactly.
I got burned some years ago in Thailand when a local general decided he liked some investment I had made in his local area.
And I thought I had even negotiated with him in advance as to his silent share.
Didn't make a blind bit of difference when push came to shove.
Of course I always value life over money, or at least life not behind bars for a few inconvenient years, way too highly in these types of circumstances, and so my negoiating position was somewhat weakened.
Developing markets are not my bag, certainly not these days that for sure.
When you're very young and naive only perhaps, or too greedy ?
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com