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Loan growth in China is to ease which will lead to reduced demand across all commodities.
PIIGS consumption and purchasing power to weaken due to severe budgets/increased taxes.
Stonger dollar to hit US exports which will hit US unemployment data.
The markets should be rallying today, its not.
Stimulus driven recovery, its going to come to end shortly, then what??
PIIGS consumption and purchasing power to weaken due to severe budgets/increased taxes.
Stonger dollar to hit US exports which will hit US unemployment data.
The markets should be rallying today, its not.
Stimulus driven recovery, its going to come to end shortly, then what??
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and so you should be !
What good news can possibly be around the corner.. I believe the worst may rear its ugly head.
I'm still waiting for that double bottom.
What good news can possibly be around the corner.. I believe the worst may rear its ugly head.
I'm still waiting for that double bottom.
Bio
There is some bad news still to come, but I do not think it will be related to teh banks!! The bottome line is that if the banks can survive(and many have repaid TARP) then the economy can grow. In all honesty I know the trend is down, but there has not really been that much BAd news has there? Not like a 12-18 months back. Soon there will be ghood news again , and everyone will be happy. Remember , Stimulus packages are not being withdrawn any time soon.. Fior that reason I feel sitting on the sidelines is teh best play. I would certainly not be going short!
There is some bad news still to come, but I do not think it will be related to teh banks!! The bottome line is that if the banks can survive(and many have repaid TARP) then the economy can grow. In all honesty I know the trend is down, but there has not really been that much BAd news has there? Not like a 12-18 months back. Soon there will be ghood news again , and everyone will be happy. Remember , Stimulus packages are not being withdrawn any time soon.. Fior that reason I feel sitting on the sidelines is teh best play. I would certainly not be going short!
Hardly any bad news really other than Greece on the verge of going under and fears that Spain, Portugal, Ireland Italy and even the UK are heading the same way.
Stimulus packages are not being withdrawn any time soon
QE just finished.
QE just finished.
moved out quickly with my shorts not fighting this rally if it is one, Iam long again but if it aint goin the right way Iam out.
Loan growth in China is being curbed, I also hear that theirs a real estate glut, theirs oversupply an this could also drag resource stocks down
Loan growth in China is being curbed, I also hear that theirs a real estate glut, theirs oversupply an this could also drag resource stocks down
Gooseman
QE has been paused not withdrawn. Until the government starts selling it is still in full effect!
VATand stamp duty HAVE been withdrawn already
QE has been paused not withdrawn. Until the government starts selling it is still in full effect!
VATand stamp duty HAVE been withdrawn already
do you understand how bad the debt situation is. there is nothing between us and Greece.
Goose
I believe you are actually incorrect on that one!
I believe you are actually incorrect on that one!
Greece is a much bigger basket case than the UK
even the tax collectors went on strike over there.
they have a big problem collecting taxes
even the tax collectors went on strike over there.
they have a big problem collecting taxes
Greece and the UK are both running deficits of around 13%. However only one of them is actively trying to cut that.
GDP in the UK is 2680000 million and Greece is 357548 million. Their economy is struggling to come out of recession and accounting has been proven to be misleading ! Their ability to tax and grow their economy is very much hindered by being part of the Euro. Other avenues open to independent financial countries are not open to Greece.
bio if you are right and china reverses causing commoditiies to fall, the aussie dollar is the greatest short in the history of mankind.
you love that aussie mate don't you?! :-)
i'd personally be a bit wary about being short aussie here them having disappointed in not raising rates and them in a hiking mindset.
fundamentally i agree with you, yes but i think the benefits of being short are outweighed by the threats.
i'd personally be a bit wary about being short aussie here them having disappointed in not raising rates and them in a hiking mindset.
fundamentally i agree with you, yes but i think the benefits of being short are outweighed by the threats.
picture this goose- china slows , commodities fall causing job losses in aust,rates do not go up.Its an election year in aust, maybe rates even get cut into the election. Say hello to 70 cents.
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Wonder
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