Tradefair & Financials
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03 Nov 09
14:16
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14 Aug 09
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Replies: 26
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Mikaad
I believe the only way is up, but as anyone with shares, pension etc needs stock markets to perform I am unsure why you think it funny that peoples wealth is being eroded! The worse things are teh longer the bail outs will continue.. I hope you are short this week and making a few quid. If you have no financial interest one way or other than I am very disappointed with you! |
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Worse than a bunch of greedy, risk taking, charlatans whose only premise is to make as much money in as shorter time as possible? Don't make me laugh, the stock market rally is the biggest hoax going and yes I have been shorting, and have just reached a tidy profit and I do fully expect more downside to continue just like I expect commerical property, residential, etc to fall back.
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Mikaad versus £25,000,000,000 QE still to be used.
I wonder who will win? |
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Mikaad
Millions of investors worldwide are just loving this "hoax". Would you prefer the world to be in deep recession and economic turmoil ? Whatever turns you on I suppose. |
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No I suppose you prefer to see 0% interest rates and QE and unsustainable debt levels-at some point you have to face the music............such a rapid and massive rise in ALL ASSET CLASS should tell you the whole risk-return relationship has broken down and as such warning bells should be calling. Yeah it may continue into 2010, but get ready for rocky ride before the end of the year. Free money and QE can only do so much, now that investors are seeing places like Australia raise interest rates there thinking maybe no need for anymore stimulus, its a complete tightrope that is very difficult to judge, my money would be on much more asset destruction.
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you must have done your bol locks shorting this rally recently. Bit rich trying to claim a nice win when it drops 2% one week.
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Absolutelty right!!
Mikaad. I am att least glad that you have put your money where your mouth is. I do however feel that there is plenty of opower left in this rally. The markets were obviously massively oversold in the first instance, particularly the shares of well established companies on the FTSE and DOW. What markets have you sold? Maybe you shoudl have a word with Debt regret about shorting the Dow. Like YLB state0%. You would obviously like to see mass capitualtion of teh markets because YOU would make a lot of money. For me , I like 0 % interest rates and QE. Think it will be here for a long , long time.. |
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How can any sane person really enjoy this rally when they can see that the policies which are causing it are going to lead us to a disaster. At some point QE has to be reversed and Rates will have to rise. Coupled with tax rises and massive cuts to stave off state bankruptcy the results are likley to be terrible. But hey who cares so long as your shares carry on booming in the short term.
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Harry.
You know that or just think you know that ? |
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Btw I think the whole recession thing was a hoax.
How about that for contrarian thinking ? Just as intelligent a theory as anything else posted up here. The point is that nobody and I mean nobody ( economists particularly included) has any idea either as to what has happened or what is likely to eventuate. If they did, or you did, then the world would be their or your oyster. |
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Its a fact that QE will have to be reversed as is the fact that Rates will have to rise at some point. Its also a fact that taxes will rise and spending cut.Given the desperate state of the public finances, declining oil revenues and of course the aging poulation- all facts I say its logical to assume that the future is pretty grim.
Nobody can say for sure when a major crisi will engulf us but the facts support my outlook a lot better than the stupid ramblings of chisel who seems to think that everything is rosy when everything points in the other direction. |
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Harry
You are simply wrong at the moment. I am not saying things will not deteriorate again but I can assure you that the government must be delighted with the way things have gone QE has no time span , and can be withdrawn slowly or quickly. It is up to the BOE to do the deals. Interest rates do not HAVE to go up at all , and many would be happier paying an extra £100 a mon th in tax than £300 per month in interest. Fo r the time being the government is not interested in anyone that has fortunes in savings The ironic thing is Harry, many of teh people getting low interest rates on their savings have seen teh value of tehir homes rise by 10% in the last year and are better off than they would have been if prices had fallen another 15-20% than if they had been getting 6% on the balance of tehir savings. |
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honestly chisel, sometimes words fail me with you. can you not see that this current climate is just going to cause an even bigger asset bubble? why do you think central banks are petrified of inflation.
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Goose
No I dont. It is not an assett bubble if priices are 25% off the peak is it?? The markets were oversold and now tehy are recovering. In case you have not noticed corpotate earnings continue to surpise..Today GM have decided to keeop hold of OPEL because they will be making profit!! Is that something you could have predicted last year? At times like this you need to think outside the box |
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Chisel- Im sick of the ** that you write and im never you sure whether you are a great wind up merchannt or simply an idiot. I must admit recently im inclined to lean towards the latter. Either way Ive had enough of this stupidity.
I think the time has come with this forum to say enough is enough. |
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No I dont. It is not an assett bubble if priices are 25% off the peak is it??
The markets were oversold and now tehy are recovering. In case you have not noticed corpotate earnings continue to surpise..Today GM have decided to keeop hold of OPEL because they will be making profit!! Is that something you could have predicted last year? At times like this you need to think outside the box i'm not talking baout now am i-i am talking about going forward (as you said QE and 50bp rates for forseeable). that will cause huge problems and given central banks are talking about exit strategies they know it will too. but hey, what do they know, maybe they should come see the oracle of basingstoke or wherever you are. corporate earnings are better because of stimulus packages, spending CUTS (think of the knock-on effects) and remember the predictions are from analysts.... i am beginning to sit in the harry camp on your logic. you cannot think the stock market will continue to rally at this pace. we have some major problems stored for the future and it is going to take some balancing act to get us out of this mess. |
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All Chisel is really saying is that we can , will and are working our way out of the current economic mess.
To say otherwise is essentially to admit that all the current problems are too major to be resolved by any means, other than be resetting the clock and starting all over from scratch. I don't buy that approach. The free market theory has been burst and a new global co-ordinated economic model has to be structured and implemented. That is surely what is happening slowly but surely. The short term rise or fall in the sharemarkets is not a real indicator of anything material. The body of world's investors does appear to be currently somewhat relieved and expectant that the right sort of steps are being taken by the governments in the world's premier economies. We still have a pretty long and hard road ahead. Even Chisel will not deny that ( I think ). |
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People should look at percentage movements in the markets in the past [try 1973] in trying to guess the future.
I met financial advisors who said that they "felt" that,or they "believed" that such and such would happen to the markets in the future.When i asked them to explain what they used to reach their conclusions,they couldnt tell me. Any opinion must have a sound foundation,maths is a good start and with some basic work on past movements brings things into perspective. The odds are that the market turns at the 5500 mark roughly speaking,i already called the top at 6600 [did an irregular top later] when it was 5300 in the early days circa 1993?,anyway a basic idea of how it works can be achieved if people do a bit of studying,same as the gold price,its all to do with inflation and capitalising on the overbought and oversold conditions that arise. So give it a try,you'll be surprised what you''ll discover,dont forget your calculator!. |
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What are you smokin' ?
Sounds like good stuff. |
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YLB is right. I know it is a long hard road back to recovery, and the releases from companies reporting is tentative. However, I find it astonishing that some of you attack me because you want things to be worse than they are, and believe me , they could have been a hell of a lot worse than this.
Imagine Interest rates of 5.5%, Mass unemployment, Mass repossessions, mass arrears on mortgages, banks collapsing(they would have) house prices dropping 25% plus and you would have not been wrong. QE and low interest rates prevented this from happening. Low interest rates have meant that banks have managed to reacpitalise to an extent and the government has not been required to assist as much as first expected. If any of you think teh US , UK, Japanes and Eurozone are seriously thinking about an exit startegy for QE when banks have not started lending again /recapitalised enough then you need your head tested. Forget oil prices rising. It is utterley ruidiculous. The US has billions of barrells of oil stockpiled , and with new discoveries of substantial reserves I seriously believe the oil price will fall again. Inflationb will not be a concern for soem time yet, contrary to what some of you believe Just because you do not own your own home does not give you the right to see eveyone else suffer. You do not have the right to 6% on your savings, and you should think yourselves lucky yo can get 3%!! |
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i don't have the right to 6% on my savings but i have the right to borrow as much as i want to buy a house right chis?
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chisel, :D out of interest, in your opinion, how long do you think they can keep QE going for?
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As long as it takes Bobby! They will certainly not put any recovery in doubt by getting out to soon. We are very delicately balanced at the moment , and the welter of stimulus support is needed to keep the economy ticking..
Remember , thjis is only my opinion..But , so far this year I have not been far off the mark |
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As long as it takes Bobby! They will certainly not put any recovery in doubt by getting out to soon. We are very delicately balanced at the moment , and the welter of stimulus support is needed to keep the economy ticking..
Remember , thjis is only my opinion..But , so far this year I have not been far off the mark |
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Goose
you talking about exiting QE and they extend it by 25 billion!! Priceless |
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please show me where i said anything about exiting QE?
also 25bn is less than the market expected, interestingly. |