TimeformBlog

Can Zenyatta sign off one of the greatest careers in North American racing history with a second win the Breeders' Cup Classic, or is there something else in the field waiting to spoil the party?


If there's one reason above all others to side against Zenyatta in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, then it's probably the fact that this year's race is taking place at Churchill Downs, on a traditional dirt surface as opposed to the pro-ride track at Santa Anita, the venue for the two most recent Breeders' Cups.

In her unbeaten nineteen-race career, Zenyatta has run just twice on a dirt track, on both occasions in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park. She first ran at Oaklwan in April 2008, taking on a field of five other fillies and mares, including the 2007 Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Ginger Punch, and ran out the four-and-a-half length winner, running to a Timeform rating of 124. After missing the race in 2009, she ran again in the Apple Blossom this year, and needed to run to just 116 to land odds of 20/1-on. The point worth making is that both times Zenyatta has run on dirt she has met a level of opposition significantly inferior to that which she will encounter in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, and hasn't needed to produce form on the same level as the pick of her efforts on synthetic surfaces.

In order to win this year's Classic Zenyatta will probably need to be as effective on dirt as she is on synthetics, and that is at the very least unproven for now. All that said, it needs remembering that Zenyatta is still unbeaten, and she has run past everything that has been put in front of her, more often than not with ears pricked, and, to an extent, the doubts about the surface are reflected in the price - a by-no-means stingy 4.2 at the time of writing.

Zenyatta's main challenger on form in the book is Quality Road, who is the top male older horse in the USA judged on his exploits this year, particularly his thirteen-length win in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park in February, putting up what was, by several measures, one of the best performances of the decade in North America.

Quality Road lost no caste in defeat when beaten a head by Blame, in concession of 5 lb, in the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga on his penultimate outing, and got back to winning ways when taking a below-par renewal of the Woodward Stakes there last time, not needing to run within 10 lb of his best form. Quality Road is clearly a top-class performer, but there are reasons to doubt his claims for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Firstly, it needs remembering that he was withdrawn after getting very unruly at the stalls prior to the Classic last year, so there must be some doubts as to his ability to handle the commotion of the day. Secondly, and more pertinently, the balance of his form suggests that Quality Road is a better horse at eight or nine furlongs than he is at a mile and a quarter. He has shown himself capable of very smart form at a mile and a quarter, but that lags half a stone behind his best efforts over shorter, and wouldn't normally be good enough to take a Breeders' Cup Classic.

Perhaps more of a threat to Zenyatta will come from the top US-trained three-year-old Lookin At Lucky, who is arguably unfortunate not to be undefeated as well. Lookin At Lucky's three reverses all came at the top level - in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, when getting much the worst trip of the principals, and when meeting trouble in both this year's Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Those runs aside, Looking At Lucky has confirmed himself a tough, genuine and reliable colt and will arrive at Churchill Downs this time around on the back of three successive wins, in the Preakness Stakes, the Haskell Invitational and the Indiana Derby. It was in the Haskell that Looking At Lucky put up his very best performance so far, running to a Timeform rating of 127 when beating a good field that included the likes of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. Neither trip nor surface are problematic for Lookin At Lucky, and the feeling is that he may be capable of better performance still. He has very solid claims, bidding to give trainer Bob Baffert his first win in the race

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Timeform look back over a weekend on which there were plenty of ante-post pointers for the season's top NH races...


Saturday's Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby went the way of clear form pick Nacarat, who allayed doubts that he might have needed the race in beating The Tother One by four lengths, with last year's winner Deep Purple a further two and a half lengths back in third. Nacarat's main target for the season is reportedly the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and his form gives him excellent place claims at least, though he is currently a 13.0 shot for the race, which reflects that he still has plenty to find to get the better of a peak Kauto Star. The other performance of note at Wetherby came from Fair Along, who won his second successive West Yorkshire Hurdle with a typically resolute front-running performance.

The feature at Ascot was the three-mile United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase in which Massini's Maguire made a successful debut for David Pipe, rallying to beat the gambled-on Nicholls inmate Take The Breeze by one and a half lengths. Both look sure to be contesting the better handicap chases throughout the season, with the former reportedly on track for either the Hennessy or the Paddy Power. One who is going to be taking part in the top handicap hurdles is Tocca Ferro, who built on the considerable promise of his 2009/10 campaign in making a successful reappearance in the two-mile event on the card. One of last year's top novice hurdlers, Get Me Out of Here, finished down the field in the same race, but shaped well all the same and remains capable of better, with the Greatwood at Cheltenham, for which he can be backed at 7.0, the likely next port of call.

There was also good NH racing at Naas on Saturday, where Captain Cee Bee made a winning return to action in the Grade 3 Poplar Square Chase over two miles. He's currently available to back at 12.5 for the Champion Chase, but has about a stone to find with the top two-milers like Big Zeb.

There were a trio of listed races at Newmarket's final meeting on 2010 on Saturday, where last year's Group 1-winning juvenile Kingsfort regained the winning thread in the Ben Marshall Stakes over a mile, in so doing looking an ideal candidate for the Dubai Carnival over the winter. It was a day of mixed fortunes for Henry Cecil, whose Timepiece landed the spoils in the James Seymour Stakes, though his promising two-year-old colt Picture Editor met with his first defeat in the Zetland Stakes, which was won by the Brian Meehan-trained Indigo Way.

Saint-Cloud was the venue for Group 1 action on the Flat on Sunday, where Dewhurst runner-up Roderic O'Connor went one better in the Criterium International, advertising his claims for the 2011 Classics as well as giving a further boost to the form of Champion two-year-old in waiting Frankel.

There were plenty of interesting novices over jumps on Sunday over both hurdles and fences, with the day's best performance coming courtesy of Weird Al at Carlisle, who maintained his unbeaten record as a chaser by the narrowest of margins, dead-heating with bold-jumping front-runner Little Josh. He's now likely to head to the Hennessy, for which he is the 8.0 third favourite behind the Nicholls pair Denman and What A Friend.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

The case for Goldikova winning a record third Breeders' Cup Mile is compelling. She has the best form, much the best form in fact, and her fillies' allowance gives her 6 lb in hand over her closest rival on Timeform ratings. She is as good, if not better than ever this year, has beaten her best Europe-based rival three times already this term, and is proven in her ability to travel to America and cope with the demands of Breeders' Cup day. In other words, she's going to be very hard to beat, and there are probably worse bets than the 2.11 available about her for the race.

The question is, are there any alternatives to Goldikova? The second favourite at 6.4 is Paco Boy, who is set to have his third crack at Goldikova in 2010. There has been no more than half a length between the two of them this term, so Paco Boy's connections might derive some hope that he can reverse the form. The emphasis placed on speed by the turf track at Churchill Downs is likely to suit Paco Boy, but equally we know Goldikova is well equipped for the demands of American racing, and there is little reason, beyond the prospect of trouble in running, to think that Paco Boy can get the better of Goldikova, though his place claims are obvious once more given how reliable he has been on the whole throughout his career.

The two other European contenders are Beethoven and Delegator, and it's fair to say that Goldikova's connections are unlikely to be quaking in their boots at the prospect of facing either. Beethoven is a tough colt, and has achieved a very smart level of form several times this year, including when fourth in the QEII at Ascot on his penultimate start. However, we more or less know how good Beethoven is, and that's about 5 lb short of what is required to win an average Breeders' Cup Mile, let alone one that features the likes of Goldikova. Delegator has high-class form at his very best, but hasn't run up to that level in two outings this term, for all he shaped better than the bare result in the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket last time. He is fresher this time around than when disappointing in the equivalent race at Santa Anita in 2009, and is another who will be suited by a sharp mile, but needs a career best to figure, and it's difficult to see where that is going to come from.

The most significant of the North American team looked to be Gio Ponti, who barely came off the bridle to win the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keenelend on his latest outing. However, his connections' preference is reportedly to run him in the Classic, in which he was second last year, despite the fact he has never raced on a traditional dirt track. In Gio Ponti's absence, the strongest of the home-based contenders in terms of form is Court Vision, who looks a better horse this year than when fourth behind Goldikova at Santa Anita last year. Court Vision will head to Churchill this term on the back of the best run of his career in terms of form when winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile late in September. However, to watch the finish of last year's race, there can be little doubt as to the relative merits of Goldikova and Court Vision, the French filly simply blowing by him in the straight.

One who represents different formlines is the three-year-old colt Sidney's Candy. Earlier in the year, Sidney's Candy had looked a colt for the Triple Crown races, making all in three Graded events on synthetic surfaces in California, including the Santa Anita Derby, on the back of which he was sent off among the more favoured runners for the Kentucky Derby. In the event, Sidney's Candy was one of several who went off much too hard in the Derby, and he trailed in well beaten. Sent on something of a retrieval mission on turf, Sidney's Candy turned in a remarkable front-running performance in the Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap over an extended mile at Del Mar in August. Sidney's Candy jumped out fast that day, and quickly became involved in a duel for the lead at what seemed an overly strong gallop. However, he more or less maintained his speed throughout, quickly burning off the one that tried to match strides with him and still having ten lengths in hand over the field with a furlong to go, and in no danger as they merely closed late. In terms of form, Sidney's Candy has nearly a stone to find with Goldikova, but he is completely unexposed on turf and is particularly interesting because he is the only confirmed out-and-out front runner in this year's field. If he can get loose on the lead, then he could well be very hard to peg back, in which case current odds of 11.0 could look generous.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Timeform look ahead to a week's racing that has something for everyone, including the reappearance of the best chaser in training, as well one of the highlights of the year for fans of Flat racing...


Sunday October 31

There are meetings in Britain over jumps at Carlisle and Huntingdon, and on the Flat at Lingfield, but the day's most interesting fare takes place in Ireland. The Irish turf Flat seasons finishes at Leopardstown with a couple of listed races as well as the two-mile November Handicap at 15:15, which has gone the way of some good dual-purpose horses down the years, notably the 2009 winner Rite of Passage. Cork also hosts a good NH card, featuring Grade 3 novice events over fences and hurdles as well as the Cork Grand National, a valuable handicap chase over three and a half miles.

There is also Group 1 action on the Flat in France, where Saint-Cloud is the venue for the Criterium International (13:35) over a mile for two-year-olds. Dewhurst runner-up Roderic O'Connor brings the strongest form to the table, though he will face stiff competition from the home contingent, spearheaded by the Andre Fabre-trained French Navy.


Monday November 1

Wolverhampton stages a card on the all-weather, while there is jumping at Plumpton and Kempton. It is at the last-named track where the day's most interesting racing takes place, with the Pertemps Qualifier at 14:40 arguably the highlight.


Tuesday November 2

Catterick and Wolverhampton play host to Flat cards, but again jumping takes centre stage as Tuesday is Haldon Gold Cup Day at Exeter. A Grade 2 limited handicap chase over an extended two miles, the Haldon Gold Cup (14:35) is often the first port of call for some top chasers, with previous winners including the likes of Edredon Bleu and Azertyuiop, while last year's winner Planet of Sound went on to taste success at the top level at the Punchestown Festival.

It's also the 'race that stops a nation' down under on Tuesday, with plenty of European interest in what looks sure to be a typically competitive renewal of the Melbourne Cup. Last year's favourite Shocking is current favourite for the race ahead of his compatriot So You Think, with the best of the Northern Hemisphere raiders seemingly the French-trained American and Luca Cumani's Manighar.


Wednesday November 3

On Wednesday there is jumping at Chepstow, Warwick and Fairyhouse while they go on the Flat at Nottingham and Kempton, the last-named track staging a mile-and-a-half listed race at 18:35.


Thursday November 4

There is all-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, as well as jumping at Haydock and Towcester in this country and at Thurles in Ireland.


Friday November 5

There is racing in Britain on the Flat at Southwell and Wolverhampton and over jumps at Fontwell and Hexham, but Friday's most notable racing takes place over the pond at Churchill Downs where the two-day Breeders' Cup meeting gets underway. The card there features four Grade 1 events for fillies, with the highlight from a British perspective being Midday's attempt to defend her crown in the Filly & Mare Turf at 22:50.


Saturday November 6

The turf Flat season comes to a close on Saturday with a seven-race card at Doncaster, the highlight being the November Handicap (15:10). In addition to meetings at Kelso and Sandown, the best of Saturday's NH action in Britain takes place at Wincanton, where there are a couple of Grade 2 events on the card, notably the Elite Hurdle over two miles. Over in Ireland, Kauto Star is reportedly set to make his reappearance in the JNwine.com Champion Chase (14:30).

Back at Churchill Downs, the six of the eight Breeders'' Cup races hold Grade 1 status. There are a whole host of starts on show, including Workforce in the Turf (22:00), Goldikova in the Mile (20:40) and Zenyatta in the Classic (22:45).

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

The Breeders' Cup was founded in 1982 by John R. Gaines, a leading thoroughbred owner and breeder. Since the inaugural running at Hollywood Park 26 years ago, the Breeders' Cup has established itself as the season-ending championship of racing. From its inception in 1984 through to 2006 it was a single-day event but, starting in 2007, it was expanded to two days.

Often billed as 'The Ryder Cup of horse racing', the Europeans tasted success against their American counterparts at the very first Breeders' Cup meeting as Alain de Royer Dupre sent over the Aga Khan's Lashkari to win the Breeders' Cup Turf. The following year, in the same race, Britain had their first Breeders' Cup winner as the Clive Brittain-trained Pebbles came from last to first under Pat Eddery. On the strength of that single victory in the US, she was awarded the 1985 Eclipse Award for outstanding turf female.

The late Francois Boutin saddled Miesque to win the Mile in 1987 and again in 1988, making her the first multiple Breeders' Cup winner. Since then there have been numerous multiple winners:

• Classic: Tiznow (2000, 2001)
• Filly & Mare Turf: Ouija Board (2004, 2006)
• Ladies' Classic: Bayakoa (1989, 1989)
• Mile: Miesque (1987, 1988), Lure (1992, 1993), Da Hoss (1996, 1998), Goldikova (2008, 2009)
• Sprint: Midnight Lute (2007, 2008)
• Turf: High Chaparral (2002, 2003), Conduit (2008, 2009)

The only horse to win two different Breeders' Cup races is Zenyatta, winner of the Ladies' Classic in 2008 and the Classic in 2009.

Although the unbeaten mare Zenyatta was undoubtedly the star of last year's show at Santa Anita, 2009 was particularly good for the European-trained runners; Aidan O'Brien's Man of Iron won the Marathon and Henry Cecil's Midday took the Filly & Mare Turf on the Friday, whilst on the Saturday Godolphin's Vale of York won the Juvenile and John Gosden's Pounced the Juvenile Turf, and Freddie Head's Goldikova (in the Mile) and Sir Michael Stoute's Conduit (in the Turf) were both gaining back-to-back victories.

Whilst the Europeans have had their share of success, US legend D. Wayne Lukas stands head and shoulders above his contemporaries at the Breeders' Cup, sending out an astonishing eighteen winners. Lukas has won both the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies' on five occasions, with his most recent win coming in the 2005 renewal of the latter with Folklore.

The all-time leading jockey at the meeting is the now-retired Jerry Bailey, who rode fifteen winners. Those wins included five Classics, three of them consecutively (1993-1995), perhaps most notably on Cigar.

Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, has hosted the card six times, more than any other track. It staged the card most recently in 2006 and will do so again this year, the 27th running of the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

This year the Breeders' Cup World Championships consist of 14 Championship Graded races with purses and awards for the two days totalling $26 Million.


The Race Schedule for 2010 (subject to change) is as follows:


Friday November 5th

Breeders' Cup Marathon 20:10
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf 20:50
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint 21:30
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies 22:10
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf 22:50
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic 23:30


Saturday November 6th

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf 17.50
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint 18:30
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint 19:15
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile 19:55
TVG Breeders' Cup Mile 20:40
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile 21:20
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf 22:00
Breeders' Cup Classic 22:45

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Timeform's Mark Powell-Bevan looks at whether it's worth opposing Henry Cecil's Midday, one of the Breeders' Cup hotpots...


One of the latecomers to the Breeders' Cup party, inaugurated in 1999, the Filly & Mare Turf already has a rich history, with the likes of Banks Hill (2001), Islington (2003) and Ouija Board (2004 & 2006) featuring on the roll of honour.

Ed Dunlop's Ouija Board is the only one to have won the race twice, so far, but that could be about to change as Midday 2.06 would seem to have an excellent chance of following up her win from twelve months earlier. Last year Midday arrived at Santa Anita on the back of a below-par run in the Prix de l'Opera, but she returned to form to give the Europeans a fifth win in the race from the last nine runnings as she beat Pure Clan a length.

That, perhaps surprisingly, was a first Breeders' Cup win for her trainer Henry Cecil, but confidence is high that he can add a second. Midday has looked at least as good this year, if not even better, unbeaten in three starts since going down to Sariska on her reappearance, landing Group 1 wins in the Nassau, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille. Midday has shown a tendency to idle this year, which has disguised her superiority at times, and current cramped odds are reflective of her outstanding chance, the only real concern being the tight, turning turf track at Churchill Downs, which mightn't suit, liable to find trouble if matters become tactical.

Also going over from Britain is Hibaayeb 25.0, who runs in the colours of Godolphin, She hasn't been easy to predict this year but has shown herself a very smart filly at times, winning the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot and the Yellow Ribbon Stakes at Hollywood Park earlier this month. On Lasix for her American debut, Hibaayeb looked full value for her win, but at the same time it's worth noting that ground seems important to her, on firmer than good for the first time since at Ascot at Hollywood Park and not sure to get the same conditions at Churchill Downs.

Andre Fabre's Plumania 12.0, on the other hand, has handled whatever ground she's encountered and makes plenty of appeal in the place market in a race her trainer won in 2003 with Banks Hill. The winner of the Grand-Prix de Saint-Cloud, Plumania finished three quarters of a length behind Midday in the Vermeille next time. Unlike Midday, who swerved the Arc, Plumania returned to Longchamp on the first Sunday in October but she needn't have bothered, never a factor. That run at least shouldn't have done her any harm, and she should be capable of getting close to Midday again.

If the betting is to be believed Midday's biggest threat could come from Japan, in the shape of Red Desire 8.0. Runner-up in the Japanese Guineas and Oaks, Red Desire landed a first Group 1 success last year in the Shuka Sho at Kyoto and, having subsequently finished third in the Japan Cup, showed herself a filly to be reckoned with when winning Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge at Meydan on her reappearance. Though she flopped next time, in the Dubai World Cup, she shaped well recently when around a length third to Ave in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes at Belmont, when seeming to need the race. She should be spot on for Churchill Downs and shouldn't be underestimated.

In general, the Americans seem to be just making up the numbers, but two well worth mentioning are Forever Together and Harmonious. Forever Together 27.0, of course, won the Filly & Mare Turf in 2008. Although she wasn't seen to best effect when attempting to follow up last year, only third behind Midday, it would still be stretching it to suggest she can get the better of her old rival this time, for all she's looked at least as good at the age of six (twice placed in Grade 1s prior to flopping on rain-softened ground last time).

Whilst Forever Together has very much been there and done it, Harmonious 10.0 is at the other end of the spectrum as a 3-y-o in the ascendency. Unraced at two years, John Shireffs' Harmonius has improved rapidly to win four of her six starts this year, most notably the American Oaks at Hollywood Park and the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, in the latter reversing Del Mar Oaks form with Evening Jewel and stamping herself the leading home-based threat to Midday. She's not yet the finished article, again wandering in the straight at Keeneland, and has more improvement in her, especially now she's set to face a trip which should be right up her street judged on pedigree, by the US sire Dynaformer who produced the 2007 St Leger winner Lucarno.

Like in the Turf on Saturday, it's hard to find anything to oppose the favourite, as if Midday and Workforce give their running they will win, it's as simple as that. However, Midday shouldn't be shorter to win her race than Workforce is to win his, and it might be worth backing both Plumania and Harmonious to win and place, if more in the hope rather than expectation that Midday doesn't live up to her billing.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Timeform's Mark Powell-Bevan assesses the field for the Breeders' Cup Turf.


One race in which the Europeans can hold high hopes of upstaging the Americans is the Turf. It was in the Turf that Europe tasted success at the first Breeders' Cup meeting in 1984, with Alain de Royer Dupre's Lashkari. After Pebbles (trained by Clive Brittain) made it two from two in 1985, Europe has since been victorious a further thirteen times including High Chaparral's dead heat with Johar in 2003.

The significant point it would seem is in the title of the race itself, and the fact that it is run on turf, as is most racing in Europe, compared to America where the vast majority is staged on dirt.

At the time of writing the Europeans dominate the market on Betfair, or rather Workforce does. A firm favourite at 2.44 for the mile-and-a-half contest, which his trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won a record four times (with Pilsudski in 1996, Kalanisi in 2000 and Conduit in 2008 and 2009), Workforce will be bidding to become the first Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner to land a Breeders' Cup race.

Workforce romped away with the Epsom Derby (by seven lengths) in a record time, and his knockers after his King George flop have since had to eat their words as Workforce backed up his Derby rating in the Arc, where he beat Nakayama Festa a head, with Behkabad a further four lengths back in fourth. Jean-Claude Rouget's Behkabad is Workforce's closest rival in the betting at 4.5 after Arc fifth Fame And Glory was ruled out, and while it's true that Behkabad didn't have the best passage through, it's still hard to find a reason why he should turn the form around with Workforce, who is a fresh horse for the time of year, has by far the best form and has shown he handles both soft and good to firm ground.

Christophe Clement's Winchester 16.0 is the most prominent in the market of the home contingent, but his form in America after starting his career with Dermot Weld is around a stone shy of what Workforce has achieved this year, even if the first of his two wins at Belmont this year back in June does read well, beating stable-companion Gio Ponti (runner-up in last year's Classic and now set for a repeat bid) by half a length. Winchester also beat the pick of America's Turf 3-y-os in Paddy O'Prado 18.0 last time (Steve Hobby's Telling 42.0 was fifth), but the feeling remains that the Europeans will prove too strong.

Champ Pegasus and Al Khali are the other contenders from the home team. Richard Mandella's Champ Pegasus 28.0 didn't run until last December but has progressed well, winning the Clement L. Hirsch at Hollywood last time. He's certainly the most upwardly mobile of the US-trained horses and is clearly in fine heart, but on form he has a mountain to climb. Al Khali 19.0 actually beat Winchester, who is shorter in the betting, at Belmont two starts back, but even a repeat of that form isn't going to be enough for William Mott's rig to make a serious impact.

Japanese raider Red Desire would be an interesting runner but is surely better off taking on Midday in the Filly & Mare Turf on Friday. Andre Fabre's Plumania is another who is doubly entered, and similar comments apply to her.

Workforce's biggest threat could come from fellow Brit raiders Dangerous Midge and Debussy. Trained by Brian Meehan, who won the Turf at Churchill Downs in 2006 with Red Rocks, Dangerous Midge 9.6 has been much improved this year, supplementing his Haydock Old Newton Cup success with a win in the Newbury Arc Trial. That form has since been franked, with the runner-up Rainbow Peak going on to win an Italian Group 1, and given the way Dangerous Midge has gone so far, it's difficult to rule out further improvement, especially as he's still relatively unexposed at a mile and a half.

John Gosden's Debussy 13.0 didn't really cut it as a 3-y-o but has come of age this year, so much so that he should arguably be challenging for second favouritism, rated just 1 lb lower than Behkabad and 1 lb ahead of Dangerous Midge. The winner of the Huxley Stakes at Chester (a track which is quite similar to the Churchill Downs Turf course in that it is sharp and turning) back in May, Debussy has already had one winning foray to America, landing the Arlington Million in Chicago in August. Admittedly, the runner-up Gio Ponti wasn't at his best that day and the race very much fell Debussy's way, but everything looks in place for him to run well again after his recent third in the Champion at Newmarket and stamina shouldn't be an issue tried again at a mile and a half given the track puts the emphasis on speed.

In summary, if the Workforce that showed up at Epsom and Longchamp is in America then he is nigh-on unopposable, but Ascot, for whatever reason, showed there are ****s in his impressive armour, and the best play might be to back Workforce to win and then back another at smaller stakes win and place, namely Debussy.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Churchill Downs is located on Central Avenue in south Louisville, Kentucky, and is most famous for hosting the Kentucky Derby, but it is also the course which has hosted the Breeders' Cup meeting on the most occasions since its inception in 1984. Churchill Downs has already been home to the Breeders' Cup six times, most recently in 2006, and will host the event again in 2010.

All American courses are left-handed. The Churchill Downs dirt track is a one-mile oval with a chute in the back straight from which races over six/seven furlongs and a mile are started. The dirt track is relatively galloping, even though the home straight is a little under two furlongs. The turf course of only seven furlongs, situated inside the dirt track, is much sharper and places more emphasis on finishing speed and a handy position.

A low draw at Churchill Downs is an advantage in the two Juvenile races run on the dirt and usually plays a part in the Mile, in which the field has to negotiate a tight turn after the first furlong, though the last two runnings at the course have seen the winners emerge from stalls 11 and 10 respectively. The draw for the Sprint isn't as important as one would expect either - stall numbers 10, 9, 11, 3, 10 and 1 being the successful ones.

There have been eight European-trained successes at the track, and the last time the meeting was held at Churchill Downs, in 2006, long-shots were the order of the day as only two favourites won out of the eight Grade 1 races. The two European successes that year both came on the grass, Ed Dunlop's Ouija Board gaining a second Filly & Mare Turf and Red Rocks landing the Turf for Brian Meehan.

The significance of the 2006 results shouldn't be overlooked, as while the European's have enjoyed plenty of success at Santa Anita in the last two years, the non-turf races there were run on Pro-Ride, a surface comparable with polytrack in the UK, whereas at Churchill Downs, eight of the 14 races over the two days including the Classic will be run on dirt, an unforgiving surface that the Europeans have historically struggled with.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

The Flat season continues to wind down, but there are still good meetings on the level this weekend at Leopardstown and Newmarket, while over jumps the action continues to hot up, with competitive racing on both sides of the Irish Sea...


Saturday's most prestigious race either on the Flat or over jumps is the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase (15:25) at Wetherby. The field includes two previous winners of the race in Ollie Magern and Deep Purple, though Tom George's top-class chaser Nacarat sets the standard judged on the form he showed when runner-up under a welter burden in last season's Racing Post Chase at Kempton. There is no shortage of quality on the rest of the card at Wetherby, which includes the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle (14:50) over twenty-five furlongs.

There is also high-quality jumps racing at Ascot where the highlight is the three-mile United House Gold Cup (15:40), a handicap chase worth a total of £100,000. A field of thirteen are set to face the starter in that event, in which the likeable Carruthers looks to have a good chance on the strength of his form in Graded events last season, for all he has to concede upwards of 6 lb all round. There are two other listed events on the card at Ascot, the most interesting of which is the two-mile handicap hurdle (16:15) in which Get Me Out Of Here, one of last year's top novices, is set to make his reappearance, though he looks to face no simple task giving away lumps of weight to most of the field.

Saturday's other jumps meeting takes place at Naas, where the Grade 3 Poplar Square Chase (14:35) has attracted a small but fascinating field of four closely matched chasers, namely Captain Cee Bee, Archie Boy, Psycho and Catch Me.

It's also the final day of the year on Newmarket's Rowley Mile on Saturday, and things shut down for 2010 with a trio of listed races, including the Montrose Stakes (15:10) over a mile for two-year-old fillies. Perhaps the most interesting horse on the card is the two-year-old colt Picture Editor, who runs in the Zetland Conditions Stakes (15:45) over ten furlongs. Unbeaten in two career starts, Picture Editor is currently the 13.0 third favourite for the Derby behind Group 1 winners Frankel and Casamento.

Sunday's meetings in Britain take place over jumps at Carlisle and Huntingdon and on the level at Lingfield, but the day's most interesting fare under both codes takes place in Ireland. The seven-race NH card at Cork features Grade 3 novice events over both hurdles and fences, as well as the valuable three-and-a-half mile Cork Grand National Handicap Chase (14:20).

The Irish turf Flat season ends at Leopardstown where, on a card that also features two listed races, the highlight is the two-mile November Handicap (15:15), won last year by Rite of Passage.

On the continent, the is a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud on Sunday in the shape of the Criterium International (13:35) over a mile for two-year-olds, where runners include Dewhurst runner-up Roderic O'Connor and Clive Brittain's Autumn Stakes winner Abjer.

Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner Cue Card's presence made the novice hurdle at Aintree on Sunday (16:30) particularly interesting and, whilst he was clearly in a league of his own, there were a handful of other noteworthy performances, too.


Cue Card's outstanding performance in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham when last seen in March marked him down as one of this season's most exciting prospects for novice hurdles and a facile debut win enhances his credentials for top honours over the coming months.

In good shape for his reappearance, Colin Tizzard's Cue Card never had to come off the bridle to score by thirteen lengths, and his jumping was excellent other than getting in tight to the fourth last. He'll reportedly be stepped up in grade straight away, with races at two and a half miles or shorter under consideration, and he is quite rightly now favourite for both the Supreme Novices 7.0 and Neptune 9.4 at next year's Festival. Talk of a Champion Hurdle bid, however, is purely speculative.

It was a long-looking thirteen lengths back to the runner-up, Dear Sam, but Steve Gollings' gelding consistently ran to a fairly useful level in bumpers last season and should develop into at least as good a hurdler after an encouraging start, obviously no match whatsoever for Cue Card but worth credit for beating the rest, not foot-perfect with his jumping but efficient enough and rallying despite hanging on the run-in. Mr Moonshine returned to form to finish third and give the result some substance, but more interesting for the future were the next pair, Nicene Creed and Castlerock.

The second favourite Nicene Creed, who could manage only fourth, is worth another chance to improve on his Uttoxeter win given the impression he made there on his hurdling debut for Philip Hobbs after bought for £175,000 following his second in a Punchestown bumper last season, up against stronger opposition at Aintree but, moreover, possibly finding the race coming too soon, as it was all rather laboured. The step up to two and a half miles didn't look the problem.

Jonjo O'Neill's Castlerock is very much one to keep an eye on, especially now handicapped, a big eye-catcher when last seen at Bangor in March and even more so at Aintree, travelling as well as all bar Cue Card until before the third last and at no stage knocked about as he faded into fifth.