TimeformBlog

Timeform's Kieran Packman has made it to Churchill Downs and gives us his observations, from the track and the taxi he took to get there...


Thursday Novermber 4
Burger Soup. I know, sounds lovely doesn't it. Advertised on local radio here with the oh so compelling strapline 'chunks of burger in a soup'.

Other observations from my opening twenty-four hours Stateside? Remembering to turn right into the right lane isn't as straightforward as you might think, the roadkill is buffalo-sized (in fact, thinking about it...) and Krispy Kreme donuts on the backstretch are well worth the hype many of my fellow British attendees have given them.

Far more importantly, I was lucky enough to clap eyes on a number of the major players for this weekend's big prizes. Zenyatta is indeed an imposing physical presence, probably 'big, good-topped' in the Timeform style book. She didn't quite prance like a ballet dancer as my enthusiastic cab driver had promised, but she is unquestionably a striking sight.

I have to be blunt and say I wasn't as taken with Goldikova in my brief glimpse of her, I've seen her a few times in the past and she didn't strike me as being right at the top of her game, as her coat, today at least, was not as glossy as some.

Sticking with the fillies, one who did catch my attention was the Brian Meehan-trained Theyskens' Theory, who takes her chance in the Juvenile Fillies on Friday for a trainer whose team has enjoyed a very consistent season. She looked very well and a persuasive case can be made for her on racecourse evidence, too.

Theyskens' Theory was an impressive winner of the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood before running to a similar level to be third in the Fillies' Mile. Most encouragingly, she's a half-sister to Stevie Wonderboy, amongst other US winners. My only slight concern is whether she really wants this extended mile, as it certainly wasn't a lack of toe that did for her at Ascot. She's one for the muiltiples though certainly.

Talk of amber lights is hardly 'come and have a go' stuff, but I suppose it's only reasonable to be as honest as possible about Workforce's chance of lining up and it seems to simply remain undecided as I write. I think the Turf is there for the taking, so I certainly hope he lines up. He at least isn't 'definitely out' which was the inside information from that pesky cab driver.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Three-year-old gelding Herostatus clearly has plenty of ability, but his recent Lingfield handicap win reaffirmed the impression that he is a quirky individual, and one to treat with caution. The Mark Johnston-trained gelding has displayed awkward tendencies from the start of his career, and the fact that they have remained evident as he has gained experience is a worrying sign. The son of Dubai Destination got off the mark at Lingfield in spite of a thoroughly wayward display, in which he gave Jockeys' championship leader Paul Hanagan a very difficult time. Herostatus raced lazily and surrendered the lead 3f out, before responding to pressure to regain the lead on the home turn. He then hung badly both ways in the straight, looking most reluctant, and winning by a far shorter margin than he ought to have. The performance emphasised how well-handicapped the horse is, but given his pronounced quirks, he certainly isn't one to be taking a short price about.

Another on the verge of attaining the Timeform squiggle is the Ian Williams-trained Switched Off, who finished second in a handicap hurdle at Plumpton recently. Some temperamental displays during his hurdling campaign last season (when trained by Mick Easterby) led to the application of blinkers, to which the five-year-old gelding responded badly. His attitude issues remained evident even as he landed two races on the flat in September, and he was awkward to say the least back over hurdles at Plumpton. He looked an ungainly ride at both ends of the race, pulling hard early and carrying his head very awkwardly under pressure. Switched Off doesn't look cut out for the National Hunt game, and is one to be wary of.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Timeform's Kieran Packman keeps us updated on all the latest happenings in Kentucky...


Wednesday November 3

Manchester Airport departure lounge and I can report that the long-standing British tradition of a pre-flight pint is being maintained by plenty of hardier constitutions than my own, the fact it's 730am apparently no barrier.

Security wasn't anywhere near as bad as feared and I've spent the obligatory £30 in WHSmith. So, all boxes ticked, Kentucky here we come.

This is my first trip to a Breeders' Cup and it seems I've landed on one that could go down in history. Precision Break has a chance in a 'championship' event. Amazing scenes. Plus Zenyatta and Goldikova provide a stimulating sideshow.

It's little surprise to learn that the French mare has been eased a touch in the market after she landed what can, at best, be classed as an awkward draw in 10 of 11 runners in the Mile. She won from a wide stall twelve months ago, but the configuration of Santa Anita is a touch more forgiving and this will unquestionably give her connections a tactical dilemma.

Similar comments apply to top-notch Classic contender Lookin At Lucky, who's also stuck wide in 12.

And, most disappointingly, Precision Break is in 11 for the meeting's opening race. Spencer will have to change the habit of a lifetime by dropping him out and hoping the gaps come...

As I'm yet to land on American soil, confidence is still high and we can get my first tip out of the way. Sidney's Candy in the Mile, double figure prices not reflecting the hugely impressive nature of his most recent performance. Win and place. And if that turns out a dud, it's all the fault of fellow blogger and US handicapping fiend S Rowlands who used the phrase 'has to be seen to be believed' to describe that latest success.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Timeform share their perspective entries on the Haldon Gold Cup...


This probably didn't take quite so much winning as seemed likely beforehand, with several clearly not giving their running and fitness a factor for others, for all that the first three were among the six reappearing. Not for the first time in this race, the leaders went off too fast, which simply increased the emphasis on fitness as well as stamina.

TCHICO POLOS made a good start to his first season out of novice company, showing a little improvement from 5 lb out of the handicap. His stamina and fitness (looked sharper than the others reappearing) gained the day after he'd looked no better than fourth best four out. He was all out at the line and will most likely have to improve again to follow up, though a return to further will help.

TWIST MAGIC has finished fourth, third and now second in successive runnings of this race. He showed that he retains all of his ability, and his finishing effort (rallied two out) couldn't be faulted. He was tricky at the start (trainer's assistant fined for hitting him to get him to set off), though, and, as he'd refused to race on his penultimate start last season, that has to be a major concern as he bids for a third win in the Tingle Creek at Sandown next month.

SOMERSBY, one of the most likely of last season's leading novices to make the transition to open company successfully, needed the run on his return and shaped well in the circumstances. His jumping became somewhat ragged as he tired, but he travelled really well for the most part. He is sure to be a lot more competitive next time, even if kept to 2m, with the Tingle Creek said to be under consideration (likely to be better suited by return to further).

I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES probably had too much use made of him under the conditions and tied up in the straight after looking likely to take the beating four out, below form in the end but in better heart than that indicates.

THE SAWYER (7 lb out of the handicap) was likely to find this an inadequate test of stamina (raced at 2½m+ previously over fences), and although he was ridden to try and compensate for that by going off hard in front, he was outpaced after halfway and just plugged on in the straight. He developed into a smart chaser last season once paired with his rider here, and his next run will be a better guide as to how competitive he will be this time round.

CORNAS had finished a good second in this race last season and was well backed. He had the benefit of a run behind him, but wasn't near his best, looking laboured after a mistake at the fifth and reportedly returning lame.

HERECOMESTHETRUTH, who had left Paul Nicholls, was still disputing the running when he ducked out at the eighth. It's not the first time he has done that, which obviously suggests he's one to be wary of, for all that he had gone with zest until then. He'd been largely progressive over fences prior to two starts within a week in February, while this trip ought to have been on the short side for him (effective at 2½m to 3m).

MAHOGANY BLAZE blundered and unseated his rider at the fourth, his third fall or unseat in his last four starts. He's a smart chaser when everything goes his way, though his losing run (mostly at this sort of level) is now a lengthy one and must temper enthusiasm for his prospects.

CHANINBAR (on toes beforehand), was very reluctant to set off having been egged on at the start by his former stable companion Twist Magic , his rider accepting the cause was hopeless five out. Notwithstanding his good record of late, he has to be treated with some caution (has previous with regard to such reluctance.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Charlie Hall Chase weekend usually marks the National Hunt season notching up another gear. Gregg Taylor considers the merits of the winner of the latest renewal of the Wetherby showpiece, along with the victors of the weekend's other chases of note at Ascot and Carlisle.


Nacarat (c165) gained a deserved first success in graded company when landing the Charlie Hall Chase by four lengths from The Tother One (159). The proximity of last year's victor Deep Purple (c158), former dual winner Ollie Magern (c147$) and That's Rhythm (c140) pin down the form of the race, yet Tom George's grey still met the standard of recent winners of the contest in running to a bare performance figure of 154. He travelled powerfully close up and would have been more emphatic but for a blunder three out. Nacarat arguably went off too fast when finishing fourth in last season's King George, but will still have plenty to find this time around with an on-song Kauto Star.

The Tother One has looked hard work in the past and did so again here, despite running only a few pounds shy of his best, under pressure sooner than most and failing to convince that he was putting absolutely everything in. Another who has temperament doubts following this is Barbers Shop (c157?). He hasn't been himself since finishing a place ahead of Nacarat in the King George and appeared to down tools here after a mistake at the eleventh.

The United House Gold Cup at Ascot is usually a competitive affair, with a valuable pot on offer, and it saw improved performances from the first two home. Massini's Maguire (c152) and Take The Breeze (c150) could even be rated a little higher, though quite a number of the field shaped as though in need of their first start since the spring, whilst others were ridden with half an eye to bigger prizes later in the season. The winner was having his first outing for the Pipe stable and put in a much better round of jumping to gain just his second success over the larger obstacles, also impressing with both the way he travelled and responded to pressure. However, he'll have more on under a penalty in the Paddy Power and could have stamina to prove if swerving that for the Hennessy.

Take The Breeze stepped up some way on the form of his novice season, and that despite meeting interference as he made smooth headway from three out. From Dawn To Dusk (c148), a former stablemate of the winner, might have needed the run in finishing nine lengths further adrift, fading after a mistake at the penultimate fence.

The two-and-a-half mile minor event at Carlisle on Sunday is often a race to take note of; the likes of Monet's Garden and Tidal Bay having used it as a platform to better things in recent years. The one horse from the latest renewal who could go on to follow in the footsteps of that duo is Weird Al (c148p), who maintained his unbeaten record over fences when dead-heating with Little Josh (140).

Ian William's seven-year-old has made giant strides in just six career starts to date, but it would probably unwise to go too overboard with the form on the day. He seemed to confirm market vibes that he was a shade rusty on for this first outing since fracturing his off-fore cannon bone in February, staying on to join the leader on the line after being around four lengths down at the last.

Little Josh ran to around the same figure as when winning a novice handicap at Haydock last winter, but will probably go on to fall a little short of the level required to see him competitive in graded contests. The pair were 18 lengths clear of the weak-finishing Door Boy (133).

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

Timeform have highlighted two horses who look set for success during the imminent all-weather season...


Street Power made an encouraging return to action after a three-month break when fourth in a handicap at Ffos Las recently, and he looks set for another fruitful all-weather campaign. This son of Street Cry possesses a good turn of foot, and he briefly threatened to pass all of his rivals at Ffos Las before a lack of sharpness seemed to tell. The Jeremy Gask-trained gelding hasn't had much racing since winning at Kempton in April, and may well have been saved purposely for a winter campaign on his favoured surface. He has gained six of his seven career wins on polytrack, and his reappearance effort suggests that he may well be able to add to that tally before long. J. R. Gask

Elmfield Giant took the eye when runner-up in a competitive three-year-old handicap at Kempton last time. The performance represented a career-best effort from the Richard Fahey-trained gelding, and he impressed with the way he quickened from mid-field to lead inside the final 1f, only going down by half-a-length to an improver in Snow Magic in the end. The pair pulled nicely clear of the remainder, and the presence of a solid yardstick three lengths back in third indicates that the form should be viewed positively. Elmfield Giant is unexposed on polytrack, and if his latest run is anything to go by, he is the type to do well during the all-weather season. R. A. Fahey

This weekend's JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal is the race that signals the start of the jumps season proper in Ireland, and this year's renewal is all the more special with two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Kauto Star scheduled to make his seasonal reappearance in a race he won back in 2008.


A maximum of seven horses will take on the British raider, and it's not surprising to find that Kauto Star is a long way clear on Timeform ratings, currently rated a massive 35 lb superior to nearest rival Sizing Europe.

Last year's Arkle winner, Sizing Europe, looks to be having his campaign geared towards a crack at Cheltenham's Gold Cup in March, but he already has a fair bit to prove after a rather disappointing defeat at the hands of China Rock in a Grade 3 chase at Punchestown last month. Henry De Bromhead's stable star is far from certain to stay a testing three miles and, for all China Rock had a fitness edge on that occasion, it wouldn't be a great surprise to see Mouse Morris' progressive second-season chaser confirm that form over this trip.

Trafford Lad managed just the one start for Laurence James Butler in 2009/10, but that could barely have been more encouraging given that it was over a trip short of his best, finding just the high-class pair of Tranquil Sea and Joncol too good in a 2m Grade 3 event at Naas. However, Trafford Lad picked up a leg injury that eventually ruled him out for the season, and it's difficult to see him being able to make a winning reappearance from a year off in such a tough race.

Mossbank was a very smart chaser when last seen in 2007/8, placed in the Lexus, Ryanair and ****ss Gold Cup on his final three starts that term. However, Michael Hourigan's representative has already missed several intended engagements this season and has an absence of over two years to defy.

Of the remainder, Coolcashin should appreciate the return to a testing three miles, but has stones to find on the ratings and looks to be running for place money at best. Killyglen has gone the wrong way in recent seasons and, whilst a recent run over hurdles should have him spot on fitness wise for this, it remains to be seen whether or not he can produce his smart best for his new yard.

All in all, it's nigh on impossible to oppose Kauto Star given the question marks over so many of his rivals and his layers will be pinning their hopes on Paul Nicholls' charge not being over what was admittedly a crashing fall at Cheltenham in March. That theory alone is nothing like sufficient for me to want to oppose one of the outstanding chasers of the modern era and siding with China Rock to chase him home is perhaps the best option.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

The Breeders' Cup Sprint is a race the Americans have dominated down the years and returns to the traditional dirt surface in 2010, so it's no surprise the Europeans have again shied away.


If the betting has it right, this Breeders' Cup Sprint should be a straight shootout up front between Girolamo and Big Drama.

Girolamo won three times last year for Kieran McLaughlin prior to flopping in the Classic and, though not out for Godolphin this year until September, he put up a career-best when dropped to six furlongs last time, winning the Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont. That was his fifth win from just nine starts but, although this race is very much up for grabs after the retirement of Majesticperfection, Girolamo is quite likely to attract more support than his form warrants.

Big Drama, on the other hand, is arguably a bigger price than he should be in relation to Girolamo, having finished in front of him when second to Here Comes Ben in the Forego Handicap at Saratoga. On the day, Big Drama even looked the most likely winner for much of the straight. Just as effective at six furlongs, Big Drama should give a bold bid from the front.

However, whilst that pair dominate the betting, top of the Timeform ratings is Kinsale King, who is only third best in the Betfair market. Carl O Callaghan's Kinsale King will be known to many after his foray to Britain this summer, when he finished third to Starspandgledbanner in the Golden Jubilee. He is easily excused his next run, when not himself in the July Cup, and a return to the form he showed in the spring, when winning the Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan, will see him go close. Lightly raced for a 5-y-o, Kinsale King has to prove himself on dirt (acts on synthetics), which is perhaps why he's available to back at around 10.0.

Smiling Tiger is another of the more likely types, having improved markedly to win three times this year, including the Grade 1 Ancient Title Stakes at Hollywood Park. Dirt is also an unknown with him, but again that is factored into the price.

The last one to mention is Charles Loprestri's Wise Dan. Unraced in 2009, Wise Dan has progressed well this year to win three of his four races, most notably the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland in October. Proven on dirt (sloppy), Wise Dan is the type to improve further and could represent a bit of value at around 11.0, as he's got more than enough speed to serve it up to the pair who dominate the betting.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

The Europeans look to hold all the aces in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf...


One of the races that was added when the Breeders' Cup became a two-day fixture in 2007, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf has twice gone the way of the Europeans, or more specifically John Gosden. Nownownow won the first renewal for America, but Gosden has since sent over Donativum and Pounced to make the score 2-1, the pair both ridden by Frankie Dettori.

With the best of the American juveniles more like to be aimed at the dirt event, that should again leave the way open for the Europeans, though Gosden's intended runner this year, Utley, has plenty to find judged on the form of his maiden success and his subsequent fifth in the Jean Luc-Lagardere, for all he's likely to improve again.

The favourite is among the European contingent, namely Aidan O'Brien's Master of Hounds, who left the form of his Tipperary maiden win well behind when third to Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster. He had previously split Dunboyne Express and Sunday's Criterium International winner Roderic O'Connor at Leopardstown, and shaped at Doncaster as if there was more to come from him.

Brian Meehan has tasted Breeders' Cup success before and he sends over Mantoba. Like most from the yard, Mantoba stepped up markedly on his debut effort, winning a Newbury maiden. In following up in a strong Newmarket minor event he showed himself a smart colt, one well up to winning pattern races. With just three runs behind him, Mantoba is still in the 'could be anything' category.

Another with three runs under his belt is Godolphin's unbeaten colt Biondetti, who is trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni. Biondetti took the step up in class in his stride when landing the Group 1 Gran Criterium in Milan. Godolphin had the runner-up in Italy last year, Vale of York, who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (on the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita), and Biondetti has every chance of giving the operation another Breeders' Cup success, in either that race or this one. It wasn't a particularly strong renewal of the Gran Criterium that he won, but he's progressing well.

The pick of the American entries, Kenny McPeek's Rogue Romance, is more likely to go for the Dirt race, so the most interesting of the home contingent is Soldat. Kieran McLaughlin's colt has produced his best efforts in Grade 3 events on turf on his last two starts, winning the With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga in September easily by three lengths before 1½ lengths second to Air Support in the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont.

In theory, this should be a race that gets the Europeans off to a flyer on Saturday, and Brian Meehan's Mantoba is narrowly preferred over Aidan O'Brien's Master of Hounds.

(read more at betting.betfair.com)

The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile is one race which certainly won't be going the way of the Europeans...

The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile was one of the races added to the fixture when it was expanded to two days in 2007. However, this year is the first when the race will be exactly as it is named, as the inaugural running in 2007, won by James Jerkens' Corinthian, was run over a distance of one mile and 70 yards (in very sloppy conditions), while the two subsequent runnings at Santa Anita have been run on the Pro-Ride surface.

Nonetheless, the Americans have dominated the event and are set to do so again, with the Europeans (aside from Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor's two US-based runners) not even entering.

Crown of Thorns, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Sprint in 2009, is one of the current market leaders on Betfair. He has finished second on both starts this year, in the Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar (encouraging effort when beaten ½ length by El Brujo) and the Goodwood Stakes at Hollywood (beaten same margin by Richard's Kid), in the latter showing he's effective at nine furlongs. However, he has made it to track only eight times in four seasons and there have to be doubts about him.

Richard Mandella's favourite faces plenty of competition, not least from Charles Loprestri's Here Comes Ben, who has been much improved this year. Here Comes Ben has won all four of his starts this season, including the Grade 1 Forego Handicap at Saratoga last time. Here Comes Ben had cast his lines in calmer waters prior to Saratoga, but there was no fluke about his success and, if anything, he should be well suited by the step back up to a mile. That form looks solid, and he's probably the one to beat.

The pick of the Godolphin pair is Vineyard Haven, who won a non-graded stakes at Saratoga prior to finishing third there to Here Comes Ben in the Forego. Vineyard Haven is on a recovery mission having been sent off joint favourite there, but can't be ruled out, with his ability to front run likely to prove an asset. Gayego hasn't been quite so good this year as when fourth in the Sprint in 2009 and has a bit to find on the form of his Presque Isle Mile win last time.

One of the more interesting runners is Tizway. He was third to America's top colt Quality Road in the Metropolitan at Belmont before going back there to win a Grade 2 Handicap by five lengths. A reproduction of that improved effort will see him right in the mix

(read more at betting.betfair.com)