TimeformBlog

There may have been more than a moment's worry for anyone who took the short odds about Master Minded at Ascot on Saturday as he was all out to hold on from Somersby, but he got the job done in the end and in terms of form it rates as his best performance since the 2008 Champion Chase, the pair 20 lengths clear of the third home Mad Max.

However, the top-class level of form attained by Master Minded is not reflected in the Betfair market, as he has drifted slightly out to 3.65, having been matched for plenty of money around the 2.90 mark. Somersby had long threatened to deliver a performance of this quality, and he clearly has a race at the top level in him after Saturday's effort. The Ascot run again emphasised that Somersby is sure to be suited by further than two miles, and the ante-post markets bear that out, as he is an 11.0 shot for the Ryanair compared to the 13.5 available about him for the Champion Chase. He has the form to figure in either.

The other most significant move as regards ante-post markets for the Festival resulting from the action at Ascot on Saturday concerns the Triumph Hurdle, for which Grandouet is the new favourite at 8.0 after his smooth success in the opening contest. Save for well-being, the win at Ascot told us little new about Grandouet (his win at Newbury the time before is rated significantly higher) but he certainly rates among the leading contenders for the Triumph at this stage.

There were also moves in the market for the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle after Sparky May's win in the Grade 2 hurdle over three miles at Ascot. The Pat Rodford-trained mare has improved significantly in winning each of her four starts over hurdles. She was impressive in the way she travelled so strongly through the race at Ascot, and looks one of the main dangers to Quevega at the Festival, for all Sparky May still has plenty to find on form with the two-time winner of the David Nicholson.

Other performances of note came from Tiger O'Toole, who won the valuable Holloway's Hurdle, in which there were some encouraging efforts in behind, not least from the runner-up Walkon, and Paul Nicholls' novice hurdler Poungach, who confirmed the promise of his hurdling debut when impressively winning the concluding event on the card. He looks a realistic candidate for some of the top novice hurdles judged on Saturday's win.

The weekend's other prominent jumps meeting took place at Leopardstown on Sunday, where the star performer was Ireland's top hurdler, Hurricane Fly. Hurricane Fly's three and a half lengths defeat of Solwhit in the Irish Champion Hurdle was a career-best effort in terms of form, and it was arguably his most visually taking win to date as well. He has shortened up slightly in the market for the Champion Hurdle, now the 5.8 clear second favourite behind Binocular.

The other Grade 1 at Leopardstown was the Irish Arkle, which went the way of Noel Meade's Realt Dubh, who held off Noble Prince by a short head. Realt Dubh is a 14.0 chance for the Arkle at the Festival, but his form falls a bit short of what is normally required in that race.

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Of all the ante-post markets at the Festival, the one for the Champion Hurdle is up there among the most perplexing, with four horses currently trading at single-figure prices and at least five others you could give a serious chance to at bigger odds.

Binocular has reclaimed favouritism at 4.3 after his win in the rearranged Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and justifiably so, as he has the best form of all the contenders. Indeed, when winning the Champion Hurdle last season, he recorded the best Timeform rating by a winner of the race since Rooster Booster, and before him Istabraq. Binocular will reportedly run in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown and it's difficult to see him being usurped as favourite between now and the Festival.

Hurricane Fly (6.0) was briefly favourite for the race having won both his starts in Ireland this season, on each occasion beating Solwhit in typical strong-travelling fashion. Hurricane Fly is now seven from eight over timber in Ireland, and is firmly established as the best hurdler on those shores. The pick of his form leaves him with a bit to find with Binocular, but it is by no means out of the question that Hurricane Fly is capable of even better, given that he hasn't yet had the opportunity to take on the best Britain has to offer.

Also undefeated this season is Menorah (6.4), who completes the trio of horses who have at one point been ante-post favourite for the Champion. Last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner has confirmed his liking for Cheltenham this term, winning the Greatwood there on his return prior to lowering the colours of Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti in the International Hurdle. The better of those two efforts in terms of form was the win under top weight in the Greatwood, though he was visually more impressive in the International, showing a good turn of foot before the last.

The unbeaten Peddlers Cross (6.6) is the other horse currently trading at single-figure odds. Peddlers Cross has improved by the run over timber, winning graded novice events at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals last season, and making a seamless transition to open company when beating Starluck and a below-form Binocular in the Fighting Fifth at Newbury on his reappearance. The bare form of the Fighting Fifth is short of what is required to win a Champion (10 lb below what Binocular achieved last year, for instance), but Peddlers Cross is clearly open to further improvement. Peddlers Cross runs in the Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial on Saturday, and that is likely to prove a simple task for him given the level of opposition there.

After that quartet there is a gap in the market to Oscar Whisky (21.0), who laid down his claims for the Champion when hacking up in a two-and-a-half-mile minor event at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. The form Oscar Whisky achieved that day is very close to high-class, and entitles him to be tighter to the three that head him in the market than is actually the case. He next runs in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las, and a similar performance there could well result in him shortening up again.

Another representative of last year's Supreme form, Dunguib, is next in at 22.0. Dunguib was the banker of the Festival for many last year, and ran a respectable race in the end for all he failed to land the odds. He hasn't been seen since finishing fourth to Hurricane Fly in a Grade 1 at Punchestown in April, and misses an intended assignment in the Irish Champion Hurdle due to a poor blood test. Dunguib obviously has plenty of ability, as he showed in his bumper campaign and when winning novice hurdles on the bridle in Ireland last term, but he offers pretty poor value at current prices given that his form is about 20 lb short of what is required.

Mille Chief (26.0) looks a much better bet than Dunguib at the prices given that he achieved a very smart level of form when winning a valuable Sandown handicap hurdle under top weight at the beginning of the month. Alan King has long held Mille Chief in high regard, and he was prominent in the market for last season's Triumph, only to miss the race with a setback. He will now run in a Champion Hurdle trial, and further improvement will see him right in the mix with the principals on form.

Last year's runner-up Khyber Kim (40.0) has taken a major walk in the market after his below-form reappearance, when only fourth to Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. The likelihood is that Kempton's two-mile track does not present Khyber Kim with a sufficient test of stamina, and he should do better at Cheltenham, though this year's renewal looks stronger than the one he was second in last year, and it could be that Aintree will afford him a better opportunity for success at the top level this term.

Another who has drifted somewhat is Silviniaco Conti (36.0), and his price looks on the generous side mindful of his form this year. Indeed, he ran to a Timeform rating of 163 when winning the Ascot Hurdle back in November, which puts him behind only Binocular, Hurricane Fly and Menorah in terms of achievement on the racecourse. Silviniaco Conti finished third, behind Menorah and Cue Card, in the International Hurdle when last seen, though there are several mitigating factors to his performance. Firstly, Silviniaco Conti was conceding 4 lb to the pair that beat him, while he was not ideally suited by the steady pace behind the ignored pacemaker that day. The drift out to 38.0 certainly looks an overreaction judged on form.

The market suggests that the Supreme is by far the more likely Festival target for Cue Card (50.0), though that price would look very big if Colin Tizzard did opt to go down the Champion route, as Cue Card is almost certainly capable of better - he'd likely get closer to Menorah than he did in the International granted a stronger pace. Having said that, the Supreme looks at his mercy, and it would be fully understandable if connections head there instead.

The two-mile hurdling division has perhaps lacked a bit of quality in recent seasons, but this year's renewal is shaping up to buck that trend, and it looks incredibly competitive. Binocular rates as the likeliest winner, but it's not particularly likely that either him or the trio that also trade at single-figure odds behind him (Hurricane Fly, Menorah, Peddlers Cross) are going to shorten appreciably between now and the Festival. Given that there isn't obviously much value left in any of their prices, the best approach might well be to side with a couple of up-and-comers in Oscar Whisky and Mille Chief, both of whom have the form to figure, and will get the opportunity to emphasise their credentials between now and the Festival, affording the opportunity to lock in a profit.

Recommendations: Back Oscar Whisky @ 22.0 and Mille Chief @ 26.0 in the Champion Hurdle


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Saturday's showpiece meeting takes place at Ascot and the highlight there is the Grade 1 VC Chase over two miles. That race looks at the mercy of Master Minded, who has seemingly returned to his very best this season. Judged on his best form Master Minded has something like 20 lb in hand over his closest rivals on Timeform ratings, and should take plenty of beating as he bids to reassert his supremacy in the two-mile chase division.

There is plenty of quality elsewhere on the card at Ascot, notably in the Grade 2 Holloway's Hurdle, a handicap over about two and a half miles. The Triumph Hurdle winner Soldatino makes his eagerly awaited reappearance in the race, and Timeform ratings suggest that a mark of 148 may well prove within his scope.

The other graded event on the card is the Warfield Mares' Hurdle, a three-mile Grade 3. The top domestic staying female hurdlers are all on show in the race, and it should prove a highly competitive event with the likes of Carole's Legacy and L'Accordioniste set to clash.

The next best meeting in Britain is at Haydock, where the course will need to pass an 8:00 inspection on Saturday morning. The star performer at Haydock will undoubtedly be the unbeaten Peddlers Cross who further tests his Champion Hurdle credentials in the Grade 2 Champion Hurdle Trial.

There are three other graded races on the card at Haydock, the most competitive of which is arguably Peter Marsh Chase. A handicap run over three miles, the Peter Marsh is set to feature a number of upwardly mobile staying chasers, not least Malcolm Jefferson's King Fontaine, who is bidding for a fifth consecutive win.

There is also good-quality racing at Haydock for novices over both hurdles and fences. The hurdlers go in the two-mile Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle, while there are some fascinating runners in the Altcar Novices' Chase, most notably Robinson Collonges and Wymott.

They inspect at 8:30 on Saturday morning for the day's other jumps fixture in Britain at Wincanton, while there will be racing on the all-weather at Lingfield.

There is also the potential for a good NH card in Ireland on Saturday, as Gowran Park will hopefully stage its rescheduled Thyestes Chase card. The Thyestes, a valuable three-mile handicap chase, is the highlight, but there is also a Grade 2 hurdle on the card in the shape of the Galmoy Hurdle.

Ireland is also the venue for some good racing on Sunday, the card at Leopardstown featuring two Grade 1 jumps races, namely the Irish Arkle and the Irish Champion Hurdle. The former features some top novice chasers, such as Realt Dubh and Flat Out, while the Ireland's undisputed top hurdler Hurricane Fly, who will be a warm order in his bid to make it eight wins from nine starts over hurdles in Ireland.

Sunday's meetings in Britain are scheduled for Market Rasen and Towcester over jumps, and on the polytrack at Kempton.

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Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the latest renewal of the top mid-season chase on Kempton's 'Super Saturday', as well as reflecting on the supporting Christmas Hurdle and an impressive victory for a novice hurdler at Warwick.

There were some doubts beforehand about the lack of depth to the King George, with the Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander a notable absentee and both Denman and Diamond Harry not considered for the race, for example. However, Long Run (c178) demonstrated a level of form well up to the standard of recent renewals and a time comparison with the three-mile handicap later on the card wholly supports this view. He'd impressed when winning the Feltham on his British debut last winter and returned to the same course and distance to show himself a top-class chaser with a most authoritative display. He may yet have more to offer, being only a six-year-old, and obviously has the ability to figure prominently in the Cheltenham Gold Cup , but his jumping will have to be much better than it was on his two previous visits to Prestbury Park.

His stable-companion Riverside Theatre (167) produced an improved effort stepped up to three miles for the first time and might have done even better without a significant mistake at the thirteenth, still going well at the time. He holds an entry in the Ryanair at the Festival and this performance suggests that he'll be a serious contender for that.

Much of the post-race aftermath understandably focused on Kauto Star (c165+), resulting in calls for his retirement from some quarters. However, there's a great tendency within the sport for people to let their opinions run away with them close to the event and a more reasoned judgement needs to be taken of the three-times Timeform Horse of The Year. The end of his four straight wins in this race undoubtedly did raise concerns about his competitiveness in top company. Yet, he seemed ill at ease beforehand and was subsequently reported to have bled, whilst further test have revealed him to be suffering from a minor infection. It will take a masterful piece of training from Paul Nicholls to bring him back to anything like his best for this year's Gold Cup, though it's worth stressing that he'd have place claims for that race even if judged on this season's form.

Nicky Henderson had already ensured that it was going to be a memorable day courtesy of Binocular's (168) success in the Christmas Hurdle. It looked a strong-renewal of the mid-season championship and the current Champion Hurdler put up easily the best performance in the race since Dato Star won in 1999/2000, getting close to his Cheltenham form with his reappearance behind him and impressing with his fast and efficient jumping. He's thrown down the gauntlet to the pretenders to his crown.

The progressive Overturn (162), who'd landed the Northumberland Plate on the Flat over the summer, matched the form of his Galway Hurdle win upped to the top level, jumping fluently in front. He'll presumably also head for the Champion now, though connections also have Peddlers Cross for that race and he'll be doing well to make the frame. Similar comments apply to Starluck (155) and for all he's a consistent sort who provides a valuable benchmark to the form, he just falls short at this grade, this his fourth successive Grade 1. Khyber Kim (163) has a good record fresh but was some way below the form that saw him win both the International and Aintree Hurdles last season, this track almost certainly not placing enough emphasis on stamina at this trip.

Court In Motion (h144p) now only has Cue Card above him in the list of Timeform Top Novice Hurdlers following a facile success in the Grade 2 novice at Warwick on the same afternoon. It was hard not to be impressed with the wide-margin victory of Emma Lavelle's gelding, despite a number of his rivals patently failing to cope with the testing conditions, and he'll head to Cheltenham a leading candidate for either the Baring Bingham or the Spa Hurdle. His strike rate of two from six thus far belies his ability, plenty of which is untapped, and he demonstrated better form here than that of his unbeaten Challow conqueror Backspin (h141p).

Neptune Equester (h117) has useful form to his name over fences, so there's no reason to imagine that he didn't approach that in being beaten twenty-one lengths on just his second start over timber. His hurdling technique still has some room for refinement, however.

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Of all the 17 entries for the Peter Marsh Chase, the one most obviously on an upward curve is King Fontaine, who has won his last four races. Both his wins this season came over the Peter Marsh Course and distance, first when beating Maktu by a head off a mark of 122 and then following up with an easy success off 127. King Fontaine has taken a hammering at the hands of the handicapper after the latter of those wins, set to race off a mark of 142 on Saturday, but he's quite probably capable of even better and can't be ruled out, for all further progress will be required.

Maktu is weighted to easily reverse form with King Fontaine judged on their meeting early in November, now 16 lb better off with that rival for a head beating at Haydock, and he shaped as if still in form when fifth in the Welsh National last time, fading late having failed to settle early stepped up in trip. Maktu isn't necessarily as progressive as King Fontaine, and wouldn't be a certainty to get the better of him this time, notwithstanding that massive pull in the weights, but there isn't any obvious reason why he shouldn't run his race, and he does have claims.

Buffalo Bob is another who is prominent in the betting, and he has proved a real credit to his resurgent trainer Kim Bailey in recent months, winning a handicap chase at Newbury's Hennessy meeting and running well more often than not otherwise. He performed creditably in a good-quality three-mile-two-furlong event at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, despite seeming just stretched by the trip, and should run his usual good race from the front, though there is a suspicion that the handicapper is beginning to take his measure.

Major Malarkey has progressed markedly over fences this term, winning two of his three starts. His most recent success came in a well-contested novice handicap at Newbury in December, where he overcame a bad mistake five out to defy a mark of 121 in handy fashion. A 7 lb rise for that success doesn't look hard by any means - indeed, he comes out top on Timeform ratings for Saturday even though he's set to race from 3 lb out of the handicap. His form from last time looks strong, and he looks one of the more attractive runners at the prices.

Khachaturian has only had two outings this season, neither of which were over fences. He seemed badly in need of his reappearance in a red-hot fixed-brush handicap hurdle at Haydock, and then finished a pretty encouraging third in a "jumpers' bumper" at Southwell. He ran some good races as a novice chaser last term, winning a maiden at Kempton and a handicap at Bangor off 130. He was an excellent fifth the Kim Muir at the Festival on his penultimate start that term, doing well to last as long as he did after forcing a strong pace. He will be 3 lb lower on Saturday, and that is clearly a workable mark judged on last season's form, though he does have his share of quirks, which tempers enthusiasm somewhat.

The Irish raider Becauseicouldntsee arrives on the back of a career-best effort in a very valuable three-mile handicap chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. That was his first outing in a handicap, having shown useful form as a novice last season, the highlight of which came when runner-up in the NH Chase at Cheltenham. Becauseicouldntsee will race off a BHA mark of 144 on Saturday (ran off ITC 136 at Leopardstown), and further progress will be required to go one better.

Paul Nicholls' only entry is Take The Breeze, who improved plenty when runner-up in a valuable handicap at Ascot last time. Having just his second start at around three miles, Take The Breeze travelled notably well at Ascot and kept on well to finish clear with the winner Massini's Maguire despite getting hampered three out. Take The Breeze is 6 lb higher now than at Ascot, so further progress is required, though the yard have had several runners defy top-weight in valuable handicap already this season.

Charlie Longsdon has two entries, both of whom have a squeak. Palypso de Creek was second to Our Vic in the race last year from a mark 4 lb higher than the one off which he will race on Saturday. He hasn't really gone on from that run, though it's worth pointing out that he was a very well-backed favourite when falling in a course and distance event won by King Fontaine on his reappearance. Palypso de Creek has since run poorly in a valuable handicap chase at Cheltenham, perhaps feeling the effects of his fall the time before, but would look just about the best handicapped of these if able to bounce back to last year's form.

Longsdon's other runner is the 11-y-o Far More Serious, who has thrived since joining his new yard in 2008. He won two handicaps last season, and looked as good as ever when runner-up at Ascot on his reappearance. He unseated at Sandown last time, but has sound place claims at least on the pick of his form.

Sa Suffit proved a fine advertisement for James Ewart's skills as a trainer, winning three of his five starts, among which the best performance came when defying a BHA mark of 144 in a two-and-a-half mile handicap chase at Wetherby. He goes well fresh and should stay three miles, though he will likely need to improve for the trip to win a competitive event like this off 149.

Frankie Figg is on a career-high mark now having won the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree on his latest start, and he's probably only going to be of interest when tackling those fences again, the impression for now being that he's handicapped out of things over conventional obstacles.

Buena Vista ran an excellent race in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton on his only start over fences this season, but has since been well beaten off this mark four times over hurdles, including in the Lanzarote at Kempton last weekend.

Alan King's Bakbenscher won twice over fences last season, despite the general malaise of the yard, so there is hope he can do better now that the stable is in much finer fettle, though his chase mark looks incredibly stiff on anything he's done in his career to date, and even if he can find the massive improvement needed to figure, he'll need to jump much more fluently than he has so far over fences.

The excellent Nick Williams staged something of a revival with Dom d'Orgeval last term, for all he didn't win a race, producing a couple of really good efforts in strong handicaps at Newbury and Aintree in the spring. He is 7 lb out of the weights here however, and ran poorly at Chepstow on his reappearance.

Madison du Berlais, Dream Alliance and Atouchbetweenacara are all well handicapped on their old form, but are very difficult to fancy on anything they've been doing lately.

Overall this looks competitive, with just 5 lb separating 11 of the 17 entries on Timeform ratings, but at the prices the one that makes the most appeals is Major Malarkey, whose form from last time has quite possibly been underestimated by the handicapper.

Recommendation: Back Major Malarkey @ 15.5


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The Paul Nicholls-trained Sam Winner has dominated the market since making such an impressive British debut in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November. However, he wasn't quite so convincing when following up back at Prestbury Park the following month and blotted his copybook only fourth at odds on in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. A break between now and March may well work the oracle, and better ground at Cheltenham will likely be in his favour, but at a current price of 11.0 it's probably advisable to look elsewhere.

His conqueror at Chepstow, Marsh Warbler, subsequently skyrocketed to the head of the Triumph betting with most bookmakers, but despite having shown further improvement to land a third success on the bounce, it's a move that's hard to justify - he's now 17.0 on Betfair. Brian Ellison's gelding is sure to face an altogether different set of circumstances at Cheltenham, having essentially completed the hat-trick by showing the best turn of foot, and he's likely to struggle in top-end company when there's more depth to the competition.

The runner-up at Chepstow, Houblon des Obeaux, justified his connections' decision to begin life in this country at the top level, always travelling/jumping well close up and going down by two and three-quarter lengths. He's likely to be fully effective at further when the time comes and could represent a bit of value at around 38.0, more than double the price of the winner.

Smad Place could manage only third in the Finale but appeals most of that field when it comes to the Triumph. He seemed very much inconvenienced by the lack of pace and was found wanting for a turn of foot as the race developed into a sprint. Smad Place had previously made a most impressive British debut, smashing Dolatulo by twenty-seven lengths at Newbury, jumping soundly and keeping on strongly from three out. HIs trainer Alan King has won the Triumph twice in the past six years, one of those successes coming courtesy of subsequent Champion Hurdler Katchit, and Smad Place looks the best bet in the race at current odds, available at 14.0.

Newbury also played host to another of the best juvenile contests this season on the same day as the rearranged Peterborough Chase. The pair who fought out the finish, Third Intention and Titan de Sarti, both have the potential to take high order among the juveniles come the spring. Third Intention won the day at Newbury, jumping better than his main rival and staying on strongly, and he's got the physique to suggest he'll progress. Titan de Sarti, who'd incidentally started favourite ahead of Sam Winner on his British debut only to make mistakes, is very promising as well and his his pedigree, physique and connections all point to him going one better before long.

Titan de Sarti's trainer, Nicky Henderson, is bidding to land his third consecutive Triumph Hurdle (and fifth in all) and could also rely upon Grandouet. The ex-French gelding confirmed himself a useful juvenile with a facile success over A Media Luz also at Newbury over Christmas, impressing with the way he travelled. He looks well up to winning more races, but it's worth remembering that he'd suffered a fifteen-length beating at the hands of Sam Winner in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham on his previous start and 16.0 looks short enough.

Paul Nicholls has another interesting contender in the shape of Brampour. The evidently well-regarded son of Daylami still figures prominently in the betting despite meeting with defeat on his first start over hurdles at Kempton. His useful Flat form for Jean-Claude Rouget suggests that he should do a good deal better than his debut over timber, for all that he lacks size, but he hardly represents value at present odds of around 17.0. The winner of the race, Kazzene, was of a similar merit on the level for Fabrice Chappet and he did well to make a successful transition to obstacles given how indifferently he jumped. David Pipe's gelding probably has a fair bit to come, though similar comments apply at his current price of 15.0.

One who may have gone under the radar is Steve Gollings' Local Hero, a thrice-raced maiden winner on the Flat, who has looked destined for graded company when impressively landing the odds on both his starts over timber to date. His hurdling has looked slick on both occasions and the official margin of two and three-quarter lengths over Franklino at Doncaster on the latest occasion told nothing like the full story. He remains open to plenty of improvement and currently trades around the 26.0 mark.

In Ireland, Sailors Warn bettered his previous form to turn the tables on the trio that had finished in front of him at Fairyhouse on his previous start to land a Grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christrmas. He quickened up well to take the measure of Fearless Falcon, Accidental Outlaw and Toner d'Oudairies at the last, but will need to improve a deal more to figure at the Festival.

The following day, Dermot Weld's Unaccompanied (17.0), a useful dual winner over a mile on the Flat during the summer, made a seamless transition to hurdles at Punchestown. It would come as no surprise to see her develop into the leading Triumph Hurdle hope from those shores, with domestic graded races there for the taking if she makes the expected progress.

In summary, the Triumph looks a difficult race to weigh up at this stage, with two of the market leaders having only made their debuts in this sphere at the weekend. However, at current prices it's worth remembering Smad Place's demolition of Dolatulo at Newbury on his first outing over obstacles, and he's selected to avenge for his excusable defeat in the Finale last time.

Recommendation: Back Smad Place in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham


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The fact that Kauto Star was so far below form in the King George shouldn't detract from Long Run, who produced a performance well up to scratch for the race, finally adding substance to his lofty reputation. Long Run's jumping hadn't always been the most impressive in the past, but he was fluent at Kempton on Saturday, and he plainly has the ability to prove very competitive in the Gold Cup, for which he is now the 8.0 second favourite behind Imperial Commander. Having said that, there must be some doubts as to whether Cheltenham will suit Long Run quite so well as Kempton, bearing in mind that his jumping hasn't quite come up to scratch on his two outings at Prestbury Park.

Of those that finished behind Long Run, the second Riverside Theatre was the only one to run his race, improving on his first try and three miles and likely to have made even more of an impact but for a bad mistake at the thirteenth. He holds an entry for the Ryanair at the Festival, and his form entitles him to be shorter than the 18.0 currently available about him for the race.

Kauto Star was clearly a long way below form, though he was later reported to have bled. Paul Nicholls' views on Kauto Star's run can be found here.

There was yet another change in the Champion Hurdle market on Saturday after Binocular's smooth success in the Christmas Hurdle. Unlike last season, when he was beaten in the race, and only really reached a peak at the Festival, Binocular was to something like his best with his reappearance behind him, and is plainly a major contender for a successive Champion, his form the best any horse in the division can offer. Binocular is now a 4.3 shot for in the ante-post market for the Champion Hurdle, having wrested favouritism back from Hurricane Fly (6.0).

The wins of Long Run and Binocular were the highlights on a superb day at Kempton for Nicky Henderson, who sent out three other winners on the card. The most interesting of them was arguably Chablais, a £260,000 purchase who made a decisive start to his career under rules when winning the 21-furlong novice hurdle on the card. Henderson already has one of the leading contenders for the Baring Bingham at the Festival in Minella Class, but judged on Saturday's win Chablais also has to enter the equation for that race, for which he is now a 21.0 chance.

There was another exciting novice hurdling prospect on show at Saturday's fixture at Warwick, where Emma Lavelle's Court In Motion confirmed himself one of the best seen so far in the division when winning the Grade 2 Leamington Novices' Hurdle over 21 furlongs. Court In Motion was second behind current Baring Bingham favourite Backspin in the Challow at Newbury in December, and the market suggests that he could swerve that race in favour of the three-mile Spa, for which he is the 7.0 favourite, though the 24.0 available for the Baring Bingham is clearly too big mindful of what he achieved at Warwick.

Naas and Fairyhouse also staged jumps cards over the weekend, and there were some smart performers on show at both venues. The star at Naas on Saturday was Quito de La Roque, who won the Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase, a Grade 2 over three miles. The best horse at Fairyhouse on Sunday was Golden Silver, who landed the odds in the Normans Grove Chase. The Ryanair is reportedly on his agenda for the Festival, and he is a 17.0 chance in the market for that race. There was also a listed mares hurdle on the card at Fairyhouse, in which Our Girl Salley justified short-priced favouritism. She is unbeaten over hurdles, and may well go for the David Nicholson at the Festival, for which she is a 10.0 shot, though her form leaves her with plenty to find with the likes of Quevega.

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Top-class chaser Master Minded is after another Grade 1 win in the VC Chase. Can any domestic two-miler hold a torch to him? Timeform's Gregg Taylor assesses the contenders...

The inaugural running of the Victor Chandler Chase in 1989 was rather fittingly won by the mighty Desert Orchid. Since him many other famous chasers have added their names to the roll of honour, with Waterloo Boy, Martha's Son, Isio and Well Chief all tasting success in the two-mile affair. Three horses have won this race (now registered as the Clarence House Chase) and the Champion Chase in the same season - Viking Flagship, Call Equiname and Master Minded.

Master Minded (1.62) has seemingly returned to his best in winning both outings this season and, as a result, he tops the ratings by some 20 lb. The dual Champion Chase winner has looked a different proposition to last term, when suffering from a cracked rib, jumping superbly for both victories and taking the transferred Tingle Creek at Cheltenham last month with considerable authority from Petit Robin. Master Minded will be bidding to become the first ever dual winner of the Victor Chandler.

Master Minded's trainer Paul Nicholls could also saddle Tchicos Polos (27.0). Tchico Polos, who ran some good races in defeat in his novice campaign, made a successful return in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, keeping on well to see off his stable-companion Twist Magic and Somersby. He showed himself none the worse for his fall in the Paddy Power when posting a career-best effort to chase home Cornas in a handicap at Sandown last time.

Petit Robin (11.5) is one of five horses who are set to renew rivalry with Master Minded from the Tingle Creek. Nicky Henderson's eight-year-old had been a winner first time out for the previous two seasons but was certainly not discredited in finishing runner-up on his reappearance this time around. He raced clear with I'm So Lucky (38.0) for much of the way and found plenty after being sent on four out. Similar tactics could see Petit Robin run well again here, though he will have to jump better then when chasing home Twist Magic twelve months ago.

Last year's Arkle runner-up Somersby (9.6) still looks a horse of potential after finishing third on both appearances this term. He shaped with much more encouragement than on his return when keeping on strongly up the hill after a mistake five out to get to within half a length of Petit Robin. However, he once again shaped as though crying out for a return to further and will surely be better suited by the Betfair Ascot Chase next month.

Gauvain (17.0) wasn't in the same form as when showing marked improvement to defeat Forpadydeplasterer in a minor event at the Open Meeting on his first start for present connections. Nick Williams's runners have been shaping of late as though affected by the recent cold snap more than most, however, and he could easily bounce back to his best. Kalahari King has yet to hit top form this season and was never really in the hunt after being held up. He's run well at the Cheltenham Festival for the last two years and will presumably be brought to a peak again for that, making a more prominent show here unlikely.

Along with Petit Robin, Nicky Henderson could also be represented by French Opera and Mad Max. French Opera (27.0) had only Tataniano to look up to in the novice division last season and he gained compensation for a fine second in the Grand Annual with a victory over Tchico Polos in the Future Novices' at Ayr in the spring. However, he finished well held on his return, and the suspicion is that he'll need further than two miles to mix it with the best. Mad Max (18.5) defeated Somersby in a Grade 2 novice at Aintree last year, but weak finishes on both outings this season are a little perturbing for a horse who has already had multiple wind operations.

The Emma Lavelle-trained Crack Away Jack (18.5) adds further spice to the contest. The 2009 Champion Hurdle fourth made a facile transition to the larger obstacles in a small-field novice at Sandown last November. He went on to chase home Somersby in a Grade 2 novice at the same venue before not being unduly punished when upped in grade to face Petit Robin and co in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton. He missed the remainder of the campaign after reportedly having heat in his leg and will have to display a more polished round of jumping to be competitive on his return.

In short, Master Minded has looked back to his imperious best with facile victories on both his appearances this season and is likely to take all the beating if turning up in the same vein. Gauvain looks the value to chase him home.

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Kauto Star, currently a 1.74 shot to win a record fifth King George, has 26 lb in hand over his closest rival according to Timeform ratings.

The huge figure, which he earned when a spectacular winner of the race in 2010, is second only to the two great Irish chasers of the 1960s, Arkle and Flyingbolt, in Timeform's experience over jumps, and a repeat performance will make him nigh-on impossible to defeat on Saturday.

Nacarat (15.5) and Albertas Run (46.0) come out next best on the figures, while Riverside Theatre (19.0) is the only of the nine runners with a 'p' on his rating, signifying that he is thought likely to improve.

The current second favourite Long Run is an 8.0 shot at present, though the ratings point to him needing to improve to get the better of some of his seasoned rivals, never mind Kauto Star.

Timeform Ratings for the King George VI Chase (Weight Adjusted)

KAUTO STAR (FR) 202
NACARAT (FR) 176
ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 176
LONG RUN (FR) 174
FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE) 174
THE NIGHTINGALE (FR) 170 +
PLANET OF SOUND 170
RIVERSIDE THEATRE 169 p
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 169


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There's a certain television quiz programme, made up of a certain two letters, and hosted by a certain faultless presenter, which centres on putting to bed perceived beliefs held throughout society. Yes, Q. I. has covered all manner of subjects to date as it ploughs its way through the alphabet (it's currently on 'H', apparently), and surely it's only that orderly approach rather than any lack of public interest that has so far prevented the programme from turning its focus to the gripping topic of 'non-completions at Britain's steeplechase tracks'.

Fry's obvious loss is therefore our gain, though, and first up for discussion has to be Aintree, famed for the gruelling Grand National course and the stiffness of its Mildmay circuit. It's hardly a surprise Aintree figures atop the list when it comes to non-completions over the last six seasons, given the nature of the National course in particular, though a figure bordering on 23% is still a staggering number, almost 10% above the second-placed course in fact. Put simply, almost one in four horses that set out at Aintree fail to get round.

What's more, in an age where everything from exams to prison sentences are dubiously said to be becoming easier, there's no evidence to suggest Aintree is following any such trend. Last season returned a falls figure of 15.8%, little over 1% below the recent peak set in 2005/6, while unseats were a mere 0.3% beneath the 2007/8 high of 11.4%. And as with all bar twelve of the forty-two tracks covered, percentages are higher at Aintree when the going is riding softer than good.

Such figures will doubtless raise criticism of the stiffness of Aintree's examination, but surely most punters, hand on heart, would prefer to approach races at a demanding jumping track, rather than one of the easy courses that unhelpfully level the playing field between a fluent jumper and an errant one. Jumping is a skill, honed on the schooling grounds at National Hunt yards everywhere, and shouldn't be devalued or lost in the midst of so many other factors. Partly for that reason, Timeform still adopts its 'x' as a denotation of a poor jumper, when the likes of the famous '$' and 'p' come under so much more scrutiny in the wider media. To Timeform's eyes, pointing out a horse that makes mistakes is as valid as highlighting one that can find little or one that's going to better its rating considerably.

While Aintree's place at the front was no shock, the position of Taunton (13.83%) and Musselburgh (12.55%) in second and third respectively will surely raise a few eyebrows, as probably will Plumpton in fifth (fourth-placed Windsor has, unsurprisingly, recorded a relatively small sample size). The causes of such results aren't all as clear-cut as, say, the stiffness of the track's obstacles, but there are a couple of common links between the trio of surprises in the top-five. For one, the standard of racing at all three would probably figure in the bottom half of Britain's courses. And, while there are famous exceptions such as Barton Bank of a top-class horse boasting the Timeform 'x', there's little question more lower-level chasers are prone to making, or consistently make, serious mistakes. In simple terms, jumping has prevented plenty of bottom-end horses fulfilling their full potential and, therefore, played a part in ensuring they've always plied their trade at such lesser courses as the aforementioned trio.

Secondly, the configuration of each track can be said to have an effect, too. Taunton, Musselburgh and Plumpton are all sharp in nature, and it makes for logical reasoning that forcing low-quality horses into going faster than their optimum speed will inevitably lead to errors.

The assertion that modest horses make more mistakes than above-averages ones is also borne out to an extent by arguably the biggest surprise in the whole table. Cheltenham, scene of the much-discussed downhill fence and countless race-changing falls down the years, sits only sixteenth on the list, a place below Towcester. Only 10.62% of horses have fallen at Prestbury Park, though anyone who witnessed such tragic falls as those suffered by Gloria Victis and Granit Jack surely can't blame undemanding obstacles. Cheltenham attracts the cream of the crop, many of whom rose to the top in part due to a sound jumping technique.

There are other myths to be dispelled, too. Warwick's five fences in the back straight do come up quickly and can knock a chaser off his stride, though a return of 4.82%, just 0.47% ahead of bottom-placed Carlisle, flies against the view the course offers a thorough test of fencing, while anyone who suggests the implementation of portable fences at Southwell has had an adverse effect on the test that circuit provides is barking up the wrong tree as well, as seventh place and a figure of 12.31% very much supports.

Fry, eat your heart out.

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