TimeformBlog

The Cheltenham showpiece; jumps racing's Blue Riband; the Gold Cup: whatever you call it, the feature on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival remains the most prestigious race at the most prestigious jumps meeting in the world. With six weeks to go until the big day, Keith Melrose takes a look at the main contenders.

I doubt it's passed you by, but it's worth reiterating that we're going through something of a golden age among the staying chasers. This time last year, we were celebrating how lucky we were to have the prospect of a dual Hennessy winner (Denman) and a bona fide legend of the turf (Kauto Star) toughing it out in the Gold Cup for the third consecutive year. Neither won in the end, but there's no doubting that Imperial Commander gatecrashed the party rather than ruined it, his seven-length beating of Denman almost on a par with Kauto Star's eye-watering performance in accounting for the same rival by thirteen lengths twelve months earlier.

A fragile horse in his younger days, Imperial Commander is still arguably best fresh, which is trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' justification for sending him to Cheltenham directly from the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November (which he won in pleasing enough fashion from Tidal Bay), though he would apparently have run in the rearranged King George had the entries been opened back up. With a year on his two main rivals and an excellent record in chases at Cheltenham (five from six, including the Paddy Power and Ryanair alongside his Gold Cup triumph), Imperial Commander is very much a justified favourite to defend his crown.

Before his days as a seemingly perennial bridesmaid in the race, Denman was a Gold Cup winner himself, bulldozing his rivals, including an off-colour Kauto Star, into submission when taking the 2008 renewal. Although injury punctuated his campaign the following season, Denman has confirmed himself as good as ever over the last fifteen months, scoring his second Hennessy off top weight and finishing a creditable third from a BHA mark of 182 in the latest renewal of that race either side of his finishing runner-up to Imperial Commander. He is another who'll reportedly head straight to Cheltenham after his main autumn target, though with a solid record fresh Denman should have no fitness concerns and there seems no reason why he can't put up a bold show on his fourth attempt at the Gold Cup.

Ream upon ream of speculation and pontification has surrounded Kauto Star since he was foiled in his attempt to win a fifth consecutive King George last month, so there's little that this piece can offer which hasn't been said already. We really don't buy the excuse that Cheltenham suits Kauto Star better than Kempton these days but, if as suggested, infection was behind his reverse at Kempton, then current odds of [9.2] could prove tempting nearer the time, as the only member of Timeform House's editorial staff who can remember a better chaser will be drawing his pension in just over a year's time!

If any horse is to infiltrate the 'Big Three', then the figures dictate that Long Run is easily the most likely candidate. The Nicky Henderson-trained French bred put up a highly impressive performance in winning this season's King George VI Chase, producing a much-improved round of jumping to beat stablemate Riverside Theatre by twelve lengths. The manner in which Long Run has jumped on both tries around Cheltenham leaves some doubt, while he's still got something to find on Imperial Commander, Denman and a peak-condition Kauto Star, so the feeling is he's already short enough in the betting at [7.8].

The rest all have plenty to find on form, and the current prices of Pride of Dulcote [18.0] and Midnight Chase [25.0] in particular are pretty difficult to fathom with that considered, but if one is capable of bridging the gap we think it could be Diamond Harry. This corner of West Yorkshire has always been a stronghold of Diamond Harry support, right from his novice hurdling days, but even we've had to temper our enthusiasm from time to time in the face of the quirks he's displayed. Good things come to those who wait, however, and Nick Williams' charge finally revealed some of his latent talent when landing the Hennessy in November, jumping with aplomb and coping easily with Denman's turning up the pace (albeit in receipt of 26 lb) to beat Burton Port despite idling. With such a good record fresh and the prospect of more to come, Diamond Harry is a credible contender for top honours, though the odds of [11.0] currently on offer suggest we're by no means alone in that assertion.

If we learned anything from Festival Trials Day and Grands Crus' blistering performance in the Cleeve Hurdle, it's that there's no such thing as a 'banker' for a Festival Grade 1 with six weeks still to go. That said, such is the quality among the current crop of staying chasers that it's hard to envisage many permeating the upper echelons of the division, and those with the potential to do so have already had as much factored into their price. Therefore, we see no reason to look past Imperial Commander, who looks set to have everything in his favour as he bids for a second Gold Cup. We also think there is some value to be had about Denman, whose suitability to the course and colossal stature among his contemporaries are both assured.

Recommendations: Back Imperial Commander @ [4.9] and Denman @ [9.4] to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

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Quite a few of the field who lined up for a competitive renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle were looking to advance their claims as a challenger to Big Buck's, and a strong contender for that role emerged in the shape of Grands Crus (h172p). David Pipe's six-year-old produced a performance of rare quality, certainly as visually as impressive as any win over hurdles at this level in recent times. The bare form (163) wasn't much better than the high-class level he'd been showing to land good handicaps in similar fashion, but he took the step up in grade within his stride to win with any amount in hand, soon quickening away from two out. His speed is the weapon that might enable him to beat the dual World Hurdler in March.

The three horses that chased him home all back up the level of the form. Knockara Beau (h149) seemed revitalised by the return to hurdling and ran as well as he ever has, sticking to his task well to just hold second. He might be worth qualifying for the Pertemps Final given his previous efforts at the Festival (fifth in the Baring Bingham as a novice hurdler and fourth in the RSA Chase last season).
Restless Harry (h153) matched the form that had seen him finish third to Big Buck's in the Long Walk Hurdle last time, typically responding well after getting outpaced, whilst Mobaasher (h149) ran to the same level that had seen him win a Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick a fortnight earlier.

The Cotswold Chase has been a Gold Cup trial in name only in recent seasons, and it's hard to envisage the quintet that lined up in this year's renewal playing any more than a supporting role in two month's time. Neptune Collonges (c164) has twice finished in the frame in the Festival showpiece and he returned to something like his best to defeat the late-finishing Tidal Bay (c160$) by one and a quarter lengths. He got into an excellent rhythm at the head of affairs, though won't be allowed such an easy lead in the Gold Cup and will be doing well to better his third in the race in 2008.

Tidal Bay ran what is now becoming his customary race, not quite as laboured as he had been in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, but still well adrift before finally finding his stride at the bottom of the hill and motoring home to match the pick of his form. Punchestowns (c159) had met with defeat in a graduation chase at Newbury on his return and has plenty of questions to answer after this performance, on account of his jumping as well as his stamina for this trip.

In the previous race, Wishfull Thinking (c155p) had belied his relative inexperience to land the Grade 3 handicap chase over twenty-one furlongs. The runner-up, Calgary Bay (c146), was well treated on his best form (facile winner at Doncaster last season off a pound lower mark) and that he could be beaten as comprehensively by the unexposed winner, receiving weight, says plenty for the performance of Wishfull Thinking. The Philip Hobbs-trained gelding's jumping was most assured given his lack of experience compared to his rivals and he's likely to hold leading claims if taking in the new Grade 2 Centenary Novices' Chase at the Festival.

Calgary Bay stepped up on his previous season to run just a shade below the bare form of his Doncaster victory last term, travelling smoothly until a mistake two out. Bakbenscher (c132x) has subsequently been awarded an 'x' after making more than just the one error on his way round. However, he matched his hurdles form from a fairly stiff-looking mark despite this, all but unseating at the last.

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Mark Twain is most often cited as the source of the phrase "...there are lies, damned lies, and statistics..." Whether or not it was he who first said it, it is a good job that the author of Huckleberry Finn and Tom Sawyer did not then cast his sceptical eye over racing, else he might have added "...and, finally, there are trends."

It is not that all trends are worthless, any more than that all statistics are worthless, just that rather a lot of them are. Their value depends not only on the information that is used but on how that information is interrogated and the conclusions that are drawn from it. Trends frequently fall down in this area.

Views about trends are never so much in evidence than in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival. There is some justification in this. No race meeting in Britain - and possibly in the world - exerts the kind of pull that the Festival in March does. Horses are targeted at it from months, and sometimes years, in advance. Only good horses win there - well, almost only - and any systemic biases are likely to be crucial.

With that in mind, I thought I would do a quick reprise of some of the possible pitfalls of so-called trends analysis with six "golden" rules. My apologies to anyone who has read something similar from me before, but bad trends analysis seemingly won't go away.

1. Beware of small samples. If you look at most data on a microscopic basis you could easily convince yourself that a trend exists. I backed three winners out of four bets yesterday, but it would be wrong (VERY wrong!) to take that as representative of my betting as a whole.

2. Beware of big samples. The way to offset small samples is not to go so far back into history that the information you are using has little or no relevance to what is about to happen now. Trends, if they exist at all, tend to change over time. Keep things as contemporary as seems suitable.

3. Do not consider only winners. This is a common mistake. While winners are what most people get paid out on, a trend (if it exists) should potentially apply to all horses under consideration. Winners represent only a small fraction of the runners in races.

4. Take into account not just whether a horse wins or loses, but the degree to which it wins or loses. Should a non-winner that was beaten a short head be accorded the same significance as a non-winner that was tailed off? No.

5. Compare realisation with expectation. Horses of a certain age group might have won a given race 80% of the time, but that is neither here nor there if 80% of the time is exactly what you could expect from that age group's representation.

6. Do not apply filtering techniques unless they are strictly justified. The flawed reasoning is that you should rule horses out successively according to whether they "pass" certain criteria until only one or a few "qualifiers" are left. As an example of the folly of this, one criterion could be that a horse is rated a certain figure or higher, another could be that it had been born in a certain month. It is very unlikely that the criteria are of equal worth, and yet crude filtering implies that they are.

I was reminded of the pitfalls of conventional trends analysis by a recent internet discussion as to the worth of a horse prepping for the Champion Hurdle in a given month, a discussion that seems more significant than usual in view of the number of horses already having been put away for the Festival.

Seven of the nine winners of the Champion Hurdle since 2000 had their previous race in February. Then again, more horses - both winners and losers - had run most recently in February than in any other month. However, that is still a strike-rate roughly twice what could be expected.

Sixteen of the twenty-seven placed horses in the Champion Hurdle in the same period had prepped in February. That is roughly one and a half times what could be expected from that age group's representation.

However, if you consider all horses over the period - and the degree to which losers were beaten, not just simply that they were beaten - things become less cut and dried still. In terms of percentage of rivals beaten, which is usually a better way of looking at such matters, horses running in the Champion Hurdle that had prepped in February came out top again, but only just and not to a degree that should be a cause for excitement or a betting strategy.

The figures were: February 52.8%; December 51.8%; January 50.1%; and other months well behind. There is little in it between those three months, which provided over 90% of all runners, in other words.

The fact is that "trends" often seem to exist when they are looked at crudely and weaken or disappear altogether when the data is looked at in a more sophisticated manner.

This is a point well worth bearing in mind at this time of year more than most.

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Festival Trials day at Cheltenham on Saturday certainly lived up to its billing, producing several performances that are sure to have implications for the big one in March. The undoubted star was Grands Crus, who laid down his claims as a more-than-credible challenger to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle when destroying the field in the three-mile Cleeve Hurdle. The bare form Grands Crus achieved in beating Knockara Beau 10 lengths is not a great deal better than he achieved in a handicap the time before, but the really exciting thing about him is the promise of how much more there is still to come. On Timeform ratings, Grands Crus is rated just 2 lb below Big Buck's, with a 'p' on his rating signifying the likelihood of further improvement.

In terms of having implications on the Festival, the day's next most significant race was the two-and-a-half mile Classic Novices' Hurdle, which was won by the Nicky Henderson-trained Bobs Worth. In beating Rock On Ruby by two and a quarter lengths, Bobs Worth ran to a level of form more or less on a par with what most Baring Bingham winners achieve, and he is rightly now the favourite for that race. The runner-up Rock On Ruby shaped almost as well as the winner and will certainly be worth his place in a Grade 1 at the Festival. The disappointment of the race was Backspin, whose below-form fourth resulted in his displacement at the head of the ante-post market for the Baring Bingham.

The day's most valuable event was the Grade 2 Argento (Cotswold) Chase over three and a quarter miles. The race has tended to be a Gold Cup trial in name only in recent seasons, and this year's renewal is unlikely to buck that trend. Nevertheless, Neptune Collonges produced a high-class performance, returning to something like his best, in beating the mercurial Tidal Bay by a length and a quarter. While anything more than a minor placing will likely prove beyond Neptune Collonges in the Gold Cup, he is reportedly under consideration for the Grand National, and appeals as the type to take to the unique demands of that race. The disappointment of the race was Punchestowns, who is yet to approach his top-class hurdles form as a chaser, not finding much having made mistakes on Saturday.

Elsewhere on the card at Cheltenham, Local Hero maintained his unbeaten record over timber in the Triumph Hurdle Trial, putting himself firmly in the picture for the main event at the Festival, while Philip Hobbs's novice chaser Wishfull Thinking put up a much improved performance to win the valuable Murphy Group Handicap, in so doing confirming himself a leading contender for the new Jewson Novices' Chase at the Festival.

Sunday's most interesting racing took place at Punchestown, where the highlight was a five-timer for Willie Mullins. The best of those five winners was Golden Silver, who upset hot favourite and reigning Champion Chaser Big Zeb in the Grade 2 Tied Cottage Chase. It is worth remembering that Golden Silver has disappointed both times he has run at Cheltenham, but the level of form he achieved at Punchestown puts him right in the mix for the Champion Chase. Big Zeb met with his first defeat since last season's Tingle Creek, but ran creditably all the same and probably didn't do his Champion Chase prospects too much harm, arguably hitting the front soon enough as Paul Townend delivered Golden Silver with a perfectly judged challenge to lead close home.

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The Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting contains several rivals who are set to cross swords again and seems the obvious starting point. Majestic Concorde posted a cracking effort under joint top-weight to score at Leopardstown, but was raised 9 lb for that success and would need to put up the performance of a Grade 1 performer to follow up and do a double that hasn't been achieved since Wylde Hide in 1994/95. Two other likely runners who made the frame that day are Pomme Tiepy (third) and Agus A Vic (fourth), and whilst the latter is easy enough to rule out, seemingly summed up by his mark and yet to win outside of hunter chases under Rules, the former is one for the shortlist. She was arguably left with too much to do the way things panned out at Leopardstown and didn't get a hard time when it was clear she couldn't catch the first two either. She's set to race off just 2 lb higher and looks sure to give another good account.

Pomme Tiepy is by no means the only string to Willie Mullins' bow, as Barker, Quiscover Fontaine and The Midnight Club are also towards the head of the market. Barker put a disappointing 2009/10 campaign behind him when winning a listed race at Tramore on his return, but his jumping has let him down on several occasions when faced with stiffer obstacles and he's never really appealed as the type to benefit from a step up to three miles, so he looks one to be against at the current odds. There are also some stamina doubts surrounding Quiscover Fontaine as he's yet to tackle further than 21f, but his style of racing gives hope in that respect and he does look open to further improvement after just a handful of runs in this sphere. The Midnight Club is arguably the most interesting of this trio, however, as he enjoyed a good novice campaign in 2009/10, his best efforts coming when third in the competitive Jewson handicap at Cheltenham and a Grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown. A mark of 140 leaves plenty of room for manoeuvre and he'll be a major player if lining up.

The aforementioned Wylde Hide was a double winner of this race, and since then there have been two others, Bob Treacy and Preists Leap. Whinstone Boy is looking to emulate that trio but in truth, is one for whom it is hard to be positive about, as he had the run of things last year and is now a whopping 20 lb higher in the weights. The second and third that day, Hangover and Siegemaster, are also set to re-oppose. Hangover deserved plenty of credit for finishing second last year, having been left with more to do than the pair he split, but he has suffered off higher marks since and will probably come up short even if back to his best. Siegemaster has compiled a good record in this type of race over the past couple of seasons but has been given no respite by the assessor as a result and minor honours are the best he can hope for.

Of the others, two who are definitely worth keeping on side are Glenquest and Across The Bay. Glenquest hasn't run since finishing second in the Troytown at Navan and is now 6 lb higher in the weights, but there is still plenty to recommend him as he's a straightforward sort who impressed with his attitude when chasing home Jack The Bus, pulling nicely clear of the remainder in the process. He's not had that much racing at three miles either, so could yet have more to give and has to be accorded respect. Across The Bay bounced back to form in no uncertain terms when winning over hurdles last time, and though his jumping is an underlying concern, that is more than factored into the price.

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Reynaldothewizard was a revelation pre-Carnival and hopefully he can carry that form over in the 14:35. Lightly-raced in America prior to joining Satish Seemar, Reynaldothewizard made short work of his mark of 90 first time out and duly followed up by a wide-margin when last seen early in December. He broke the track record that day, and although the sample pool of times admittedly isn't that large, he could do no more than put clear daylight between himself and Commander Cove with some consistent sorts just in behind. This is obviously tougher, and Quick Wit, currently first reserve, would be a massive danger if getting a run, but Reynaldothewizard still has plenty of potential himself and there isn't a great deal else in the field to be worried about.

Old Halicarnassus went close to providing us with a winner in the first week of the Carnival and he can be followed again in the 16:00. He narrowly lost out to Rock N Roll Ransom, certainly no disgrace there, and the reasoning for backing him can almost be copy and pasted from last time - very well handicapped, excellent record in Dubai and clearly in the form to go close. There doesn't look to be anything as well handicapped as Rock N Roll Ransom in this line-up. Yes, Godolphin have Lost In The Moment and Bay Willow, both progressive sorts for different yards in England last year, but jockey bookings suggest they both might need this and Halicarnassus should go close to adding to his tally in Dubai.

The 18:25 looks an intriguing event, Godolphin introducing a couple of ex-Andre Fabre horses, but they will have their work cut out to get the better of Start Right. Luca Cumani initially had Mabait and Swop in the race, but both have been taken out to ensure that Start Right, second reserve at the declaration stage, gets a run. He has the right profile for a Carnival winner, progressive in England last year and arguably unfortunate not to go closer in the Irish Cambridgeshire when set loads to do behind Hujaylea. His effort in the English equivalent last time can easily be forgiven, drawn on the wrong side and unproven on the ground, and it will come as no surprise were he to resume his progression here.

Recommendations:
Back Reynaldothewizard in the 14:35 at Meydan
Back Halicarnassus in the 16:00 at Meydan
Back Start Right in the 18:25 at Meydan

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Paul Nicholls may have a strong hand at Cheltenham on Saturday, but Gregg Taylor believes the champion trainer can also bag the feature race at Doncaster this weekend...

Fistral Beach's progress in 2009/10 warranted more than just one success (unseated early when sent off favourite for the Racing Post Chase), and he looked better than ever when making a winning return at Wincanton earlier in the month. He was one of only two entries from an initial contingent of seven from his powerful stable and holds leading claims of following up from a 9 lb higher mark at around 6.2.

Paul Nicholls' other representative, Take The Breeze, stepped up some way on his novice form (which had included a third to Burton Port at Aintree) when chasing home Massini's Maguire in a listed handicap at Ascot on his reappearance in November, despite not getting the smoothest of passages. He's not been seen since then, though a 6 lb rise for that effort looks fair enough.

Blazing Bailey reaped the benefit of Alan King's revival this season when showing considerable improvement to take a good-quality handicap at Cheltenham on New Year's Day by eleven lengths from Richard's Sundance. As a result he finds himself nearly a stone higher for this contest, though it's worth remembering that he was high class at his best over hurdles.

Another runner who has slightly better form in the book over timber is the Venetia Williams-trained Mobaasher. He gained two victories in novice chases last season before coming unstuck in both the National Hunt Chase and the Scottish National on his final two outings. He returned to something like his best when winning a Pertemps Qualifier back over hurdles at Warwick last time, though, and looks an interesting contender at around 32.0 here off his slightly lower chase rating with his yard beginning to hit top form.

Howard Johnson's Presenting Forever confirmed himself an improved performer this season when going down by a neck to the highly progressive Midnight Chase in a listed handicap at Cheltenham last month. He looked all over the winner that day until hanging right/idling after the last and is likely to be a factor again despite a further 7lb rise (was 8 lb out of the weights at Cheltenham).

Presnting Forever's former stable-companion Killyglen was very smart at his best and rounded off his novice chase campaign in 2008/9 with a victory in a Grade 2 at Aintree. However, it's difficult to gauge exactly how much of that ability remains intact for new connections this term, having a very stiff task behind Kauto Star on his only run over fences and finishing third off a much lower mark back over hurdles last time.

Calgary Bay ran out a facile winner of a course-and-distance handicap last winter off a mark only a pound lower than what he'll be running off here. He's failed to quite recapture that form this season, though did confirm that he's standing up well to a busier campaign than is the norm for one from this yard when fourth to Poquelin in the Vote A. P. Gold Cup last time. Another runner who recorded victories at this venue last season was Wogan and he couldn't be discounted with his return third behind him and his yard in such good form. The horse he finished behind at Haydock, King Fontaine, is a highly progressive chaser going for his fifth win on the bounce following two easy victories at that track in November. Further improvement could see him offset another steep rise in the weights, but he'll have to jump better than he did for his latest win in this more competitive event.

On the other hand, Ikorodu Road has yet to land a race over fences, though he looked set to gain a first victory when coming down at the last in the Fog at Newbury (race won by Misstree Dancer). He finds himself 8 lb higher for that effort but this uncomplicated sort probably remains a handicap chaser to keep on side. It's worth pointing out that he possesses an entry at Cheltenham as well over the weekend.

The Kim Bailey-trained Sarde confirmed himself a progressive chaser when gaining two handicap victories in November, battling back willingly to beat Noun de La Thinte at Newbury on the second occasion. He has more on his plate in this more competitive event from a 7-lb higher mark, though. I'moncloudnine ran right up to form when finishing third to Synchronised in the Welsh National three weeks ago, possibly just coming to the end of his tether stamina-wise at the finish. However, he seems to have little in hand of his mark and is back in trip here.

Front runner Khachaturian progressed into a useful novice chaser last season, winning twice before finishing fifth in the Kim Muir. He also holds claims if returning to that level having been dropped a few pounds and following a spin over hurdles and in a jumpers' bumper.

To sum up, this looks a typically competitive renewal of this long-standing handicap and Fistral Beach is selected to add to his Wincanton win earlier in the month, with Presenting Forever and recent hurdles winner Mobaasher also making plenty of appeal.

Recommendations: Back Fistral Beach @ 6.2 and Mobaasher @ 32.0 in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster

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Despite the lowering of stable talisman Kauto Star's colours at Kempton, messrs Nicholls and Stewart have resisted temptation to send three-mile hurdling behemoth Big Buck's back over fences for the Gold Cup, meaning he remains a short-priced favourite for the World Hurdle with little obvious challenge judging by the market.

However, David Pipe's five-year-old Grands Crus has made waves like few other young hurdlers this winter, winning a twenty-one furlong intermediate event at Cheltenham in November before storming to success in another hotly-contested handicap at Haydock a week later. Grands Crus looks a sure thing to make up into a top-class hurdler and if the Cleeve Hurdle is to be the stepping stone to taking on Big Buck's that so many anticipate, he must surely justify favouritism (currently trades at 3.4) on Saturday.

The most obvious rival to Grands Crus is Bensalem (4.7), who went from strength to strength over both hurdles and fences in 2009/10 despite the Alan King yard's failing fortunes, culminating in a second-place finish in a Grade 1 at Punchestown in April. Although he's not been seen since, his stable are going much better this season and even the pick of his form last year would most likely be enough to see Bensalem make the places, especially seeing as he receives weight from most of his chief rivals.

Another who escapes a penalty is Organisateur (7.0), who like Grands Crus is a relentlessly progressive hurdler. This will be Organisateur's first try in this grade, the step up rather necessitated by his second-place finish in a valuable handicap over twenty-one furlongs at Kempton last time from a BHA mark of 154. Although he undoubtedly has the form to make an impact in this race, verging on high-class already, the additional emphasis on stamina is by no means certain to play to Organisateur's strengths, acknowledging he's had no problems seeing his races out thus far.

Completing the up-and comers are Restless Harry (10.0) and Spirit River (11.0). Restless Harry took fairly high order among the novice hurdlers last season and has progressed during the current campaign, running his best race when third to Big Buck's in the Long Walk Hurdle at Newbury last time. He remains very much unexposed at this trip and could well run into a place should he continue on the up. Conversely, it's been a season of downs for Spirit River so far, his much-anticipated switch to chasing seemingly shelved after a couple of non-completions here and at Newbury. He was an upwardly-mobile novice last season over hurdles, signing off with success in the Coral Cup, so he possibly still has something to offer in this sphere.

Another worthy of mention is intriguing French recruit Cristal Bonus (15.0). Bought for a pretty penny at Saint-Cloud November Sales, he made his debut for Evan Williams in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last month and appeared to show smart form when fifth, not knocked about as the likes of Menorah and Cue Card got away. It looks as though Cristal Bonus has the potential to be a high-class hurdler, but he was unproven over this sort of trip in France and has been handed the maximum penalty for his efforts there.

Truth be told, we at Timeform have been all over Grands Crus for a while, and we aren't about to abandon him now; not only has he the greatest potential of these, but a number of his chief rivals have questions to answer in terms of either form, fitness or stamina. The exception to this is Restless Harry, who is also progressive, albeit not at the same unstoppable pace, and is sure to prove well suited by the test this trip provides in time.

Recommendations: Back Grands Crus @ 3.4 and Restless Harry @ 10.0 in the Cleeve Hurdle.

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The next step on what looks set to prove a relentless progression through the chasing ranks sees Time For Rupert move out of novice company and tackle the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham, a course where he's building an increasingly impressive record.

The yard of Paul Webber has been happily resurgent in recent times, and the flag-bearer is the tremendously likeable Time For Rupert. He only had Big Buck's to look up to over hurdles last season, no disgrace in that, and was comfortably clear of the rest in finishing three and a quarter lengths second to that one in the World Hurdle, all the while looking one who'd do at least as well once sent chasing. After just two starts - and two wins - over fences he remains with plenty of potential for the highest level, having that top-class hurdles form to play with and, just as importantly, making sound, assured jumping a feature of both those successes over the larger obstacles. Despite his relative inexperience, there's little reason to fear the fact he's taking on more established chasers, his proven toughness sure to stand him in excellent stead.

Adding no end to Time For Rupert's chance in the Cotswold is the holes - left, right and centre - amongst the opposition. Punchestowns is similar in that he also bumped into Big Buck's as a staying hurdler whilst giving the impression that fences would come naturally to him. Well, that's only really proven half true, making a good start in winning Graded novices on his first two starts last season before coming off the rails to an extent. Admittedly, he had excuses when putting up a lacklustre display in the RSA Chase round here (and Diamond Harry has shown that a poor effort in that race needn't mean an end to future prospects), but it does raise questions about his ability to handle the unique test that Cheltenham represents. On top of that, he didn't strike as being on top of his game in narrowly being beaten by Pride of Dulcote - admittedly a very smart prospect in his own right - at Newbury on his return to action last month.

On this card twelve months ago, Tidal Bay deigned to show off his innate ability as he won the Cleeve Hurdle by five lengths from Time For Rupert. He was in receipt of 4 lb then and subsequently had the tables well and truly turned on him in the World Hurdle next time. His ungenuine nature is firmly established, however, and Tidal Bay has rarely showcased both that and his talent as markedly as when finishing runner-up to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase in November, threatening to down tools entirely for most of the way before picking up the bit and charging home. After winning ten of his first thirteen starts over obstacles, that Cleeve success is his sole victory from his last twelve and he simply can't be trusted; pure and simple.

Taranis burst back onto the scene when victorious in this race last season having been on the sidelines for more than two years previously, but things rather fell in his lap then and he was subsequently absent again until returning in the Hennessy at Newbury in November. He wasn't at his best there and was set to finish no better than fifth when falling in the handicap won by Tartak here on New Year's Day, so it's easy to have reservations as things stand.

A genuine front runner who has reached new heights with wins in a minor event at Carlisle and the Paddy Power around here on his first two starts this season, Little Josh now takes a hike in class. Whilst losing little in defeat when fifth to Poquelin in the AP Gold Cup, he was beaten by a 9 lb rise above all and is expected to come up short, especially with stamina to prove at this longer trip. He'll give it his all nonetheless.

Neptune Collonges was amongst the best around in his day (third to stablemates Denman and Kauto Star in an excellent renewal of the Gold Cup in 2007/8), but he spent more than a year and a half on the sidelines prior to his return this season and hasn't looked the same force. Admittedly he was unfortunate to be brought down in the Hennessy first time up, but then went with a worrying lack of zest behind Midnight Chase at Cheltenham next time and it's difficult to be confident about him on the back of that.

Whilst he's always been long on ability, The Tother One's strike rate over fences (not won since chasing debut in October 2008) is readily explained by his difficult nature, often looking tricky under pressure, whilst mistakes were also a feature of his Hennessy fourth to Diamond Harry. Now ten years of age, time is running out if he's to fulfil his residual potential.

Madison du Berlais has looked a shadow of his former self this season, whilst Mon Mome is having his first outing since falling in the Grand National and will surely have that race as the major target once again and The Sawyer doesn't seem in the same heart as when winning the handicap on this card twelve months ago. He wouldn't be good enough anyway.

There we have it, then, it's very difficult indeed to look beyond Time For Rupert. He has a Gold Cup entry to his name, and it would be understandable if connectioins had half an eye on the 'big one' if, as expected, he takes care of this lot in the style of a fast progressive chaser. The RSA is the more logical next step, though, and he could easily end up being a Festival 'banker' for many.

Recommendation: Back Time For Rupert in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham

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Novice chasers have never had it so good. 2011 sees the addition of a twenty-seventh race at the Cheltenham Festival, the Grade 2 Jewson Novices' Chase (registered as the Golden Miller), run over two and a half miles. While the new contest will no doubt be appreciated come March 17th, it has muddied the waters incredibly for ante-post backers who now have to work out just which of the three races for novice chasers their fancies will run in. While the speedsters will line up in Tuesday's Arkle over two miles, those with stamina to burn will head for the three-mile RSA Chase.

Hopefully these selections won't settle for the middle ground!

Time for Rupert has been at the head of the ante-post market since it was formed in the summer and he's strengthened that position with a couple of really impressive performances in novice chases at Cheltenham this term. Last season's World Hurdle runner-up has always looked the type to make just as good a chaser and he's done nothing to suggest that he can't match his top-class form over timber in this discipline, readily accounting for Chicago Grey on his reappearance and then taking the drop in trip in his stride when getting the better of Hell's Bay a month later. Time for Rupert already looks a sound jumper, and his hurdles form promises quite a bit more to come, so he looks very much the on the all have to beat.

Jessies Dream still qualifies for the race despite being in his second season over fences and he's really got the hang of things over the larger obstacles this time around. An exciting novice hurdler when in the care of Willie Mullins, Jessies Dream has shown smart form in novice events the last twice, beating Realt Dubh in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse and only narrowly failing to defy a penalty when runner-up to Magnanimity at Leopardstown the following month. He is one of just a few that have the race confirmed as his intended target, but doesn't look open as much progress as some, and current prices of 15.0 look to sum up his chance.

Willie Mullins is responsible for four of those prominent in the betting, but with question marks hanging over most of the quartet, they make very limited ante-post appeal. The lightly raced Fiveforthree would be a leading player if making it to the race, but he's yet to be seen over fences in public and his fragile nature means he can't be considered as a betting proposition. Options for Mikael d'Haguenet are completely up in the air, quoted in the market for all three novice chases, whilst he has something to prove after a tame effort last time. Quel Esprit appeals as the most likely of the quartet to go down the RSA route, though he's currently favourite for the Jewson, and his next run looks set to be in the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase over 2m 5f at Leopardstown in February.

One that is likely to have the RSA as his Festival target is the Donald McCain-trained Wymott. A progressive hurdler last season, he has created a good impression when successful both chase starts this term, value more than the winning margin suggests when beating a couple of subsequent winners in a novice at Exeter in December. Wymott lacks the class of some of his more fancied rivals, but his jumping already looks an asset and he should relish the emphasis on stamina.

Reve de Sivola was one of the leading novice hurdlers last season, runner-up to Peddlers Cross in the Neptune prior to winning a Grade 1 at Punchestown on his final start. Nick Williams' representative has enjoyed mixed fortunes since switched to chasing, winning a novice at Cheltenham in December but then only third behind Hell's Bay in a similar contest there on New Year's Day. He's failed to impress with his jumping so far (also a sketchy jumper of hurdles) and makes little appeal at current odds of 21.0.

In summary, Time For Rupert looks a solid bet at prices around 3.8 on Betfair. He already looks a sound jumper, has an excellent record around Cheltenham and Paul Webber's classy hurdler has stamina in abundance.

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