TimeformBlog

Timeform reflect on an epic Cheltenham Gold Cup which saw a changing of the guard, as the new kid on the block, Long Run, overcame former winners Denman, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander...

Even the collection of nerds, number-crunchers and neurotics known as Timeform understand that there's a time to analyse and a time to enjoy. The 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup was about as enjoyable and thrilling a sporting event as you could ever see, with previous chapters in the race's history revisited and a new one created. As the field of thirteen was whittled down in the final mile, the winners of the previous four Gold Cups - Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander - were virtually in line up front and piling on the pressure.

However, stalking them through was young pretender Long Run, who had been virtually off the Gold Cup radar earlier in the season (matched at 60.0 on Betfair ante-post market), and, in a symbolic changing-of-the-guard movement, Long Run swept past Denman and Kauto Star in the home straight to become the first six-year-old to win the race since Mill House in 1963.

It was also a momentous occasion for Long Run's trainer and jockey, Nicky Henderson finally putting his name on the Gold Cup roll of honour, while Sam Waley-Cohen became the first amateur to win the race in over thirty years. History was created in many respects, but first and foremost this was about Long Run who ushered in a new era, and he's as short as 4.5 on Betfair to defend his new crown in 2012.

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The eagerly awaited clash of the generations finally arrives on Friday, and Timeform believe that a changing of the guard is a definite possibility.

Albertas Run is not easiest to predict but top class on his day, as shown when beating Poquelin in the Ryanair last year. Hard to be too positive about after what he's done this season. Engaged 2.40 here Thursday.

Carruthers is a splendidly genuine and enthusiastic front runner who goes well in the mud. Faded only late on after pressing on long way out in Grand National Trial last time, but not up to this class.

China Rock is a progressive chaser who readily saw off the challenge of Sizing Europe in Grade 3 at Punchestown in October. Had his limitations exposed in Grade 1s both starts since, and this trip plenty far enough for him.

Denman, the 2008 Gold Cup winner, showed he was no back number with third to Diamond Harry under a welter burden in the Hennessy. Comes here fresh, and folly to overlook him given his record here.

Imperial Commander has an excellent record at Cheltenham and was impressive when beating Denman in the Gold Cup last year. Readily took Betfair Chase on only start this season, and shown how well he goes fresh many times in past.

Kauto Star, the dual Gold Cup winner, didn't have to be near best to score on his return, and bled when only third in King George. Flat out when falling in race last year, and best days perhaps behind him.

Kempes was a progressive novice in 2009/10, rounding off his campaign with a win in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. Again successful at that level last time, but this field is a fair bit stronger. Tongue tie now fitted.

Long Run has always had a huge reputation, and fully justified it when routing the field in King George. Made mistakes both visits here and never gone this far before, but chances are we've not seen the best of him yet.

Midnight Chase is a game front runner with great Cheltenham record, improving again to complete hat-trick in handicaps in really game fashion in December. This is much harder, but sure to give his all once more.

Neptune Collonges suffered tendon injury when a gallant fourth in the race in 2009. Showed himself almost as good as ever when making all in Cotswold Chase in January, but won't have the luxury of an easy lead this time.

Pandorama has been successful on 9 of his11 starts, spread over 4 seasons, and put a luckless run in the Hennessy behind him when winning the Lexus at Leopardstown in December. May need soft ground to be seen at his best.

Tidal Bay is a high-class but quirky hurdler/chaser, runner-up in Betfair and Cotswold last 2 starts, finishing well but all too late. Won here 4 times in past, and late flourish could see him in money again.

Weird Al, a lightly-raced sort, was unbeaten over fences until only eighth in Hennessy. Subsequently had breathing operation and remains with potential, but asking lot for him to figure here.

What A Friend is a high-class chaser who produced a career-best when taking the totesport Bowl at Aintree last April. Lost out only narrowly to Noland in AON Chase last time, but typically looked far from straightforward. Now blinkered.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Long Run
2. Imperial Commander
3. Tidal Bay

Timeform View: Imperial Commander ended the Paul Nicholls domination of this race in brilliant style last year, and he may well beat those he took on then again. However, Long Run gave notice in the King George that he could be a major force in the top chases for some time to come, and providing he jumps soundly he can give Nicky Henderson his first Gold Cup victory. Tidal Bay may snatch a place.

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Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are the two most successful current trainers at the Festival and, with Betfair offering markets on how many winners they will train at this year's meeting, Timeform's Billy Nash takes a look at their respective chances of success.

Nicky Henderson is the leading current trainer at the Festival having saddled 37 winners since 1985. In fact, he needs just three more winners to join Fulke Walwyn as the most successful trainer in the Festival's history. He took the accolade of leading trainer last year courtesy of wins for Binocular in the Champion Hurdle, Soldatino in the Triumph and Spirit River in the Coral Cup, and all of those are likely to be back this year as part of what promises to be his strongest ever team.

Henderson will be hoping to get an early winner on the board with the hitherto unbeaten over fences Finian's Rainbow in the Arkle. All three of Finian's Rainbow's wins over fences have come in small fields but his form is working out well and he deserves his place towards the head of the market. Binocular has followed the same path to the Champion Hurdle as last year and, though unimpressive at Sandown last time, he is clearly the one to beat. In fact one of his main dangers appears to be his stable companion Oscar Whisky who could hardly have made a bigger impression when winning the Welsh Champion at Ffos Las last month.

Another who will take plenty of beating is Bobs Worth in the Neptune Novices Hurdle on Wednesday. He is already a dual course winner and remains open to further improvement. In fact Wednesday could turn out to be a big day for Henderson as Titan de Sarti and Celtus (Fred Winter) and Ericht (Bumper) are other Seven Barrows representatives with big chances. With Riverside Theatre now out of the Ryanair, Henderson doesn't have many obvious chances at this stage on day three, but Friday promises to be more successful.

Grandouet looks to have a good chance of giving Henderson his sixth Triumph Hurdle win since 1985, whilst Long Run will be bidding to give him his first ever Gold Cup winner. As usual he will field a strong team in the race run in memory of his father, the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual.

Paul Nicholls currently has ten fewer Festival winners to his name than Henderson but it is well worth pointing out that 24 of those winners have come in the last eight years, including a fabulous five-timer in 2009. Nicholls is currently on course to finish the season as Champion trainer for the sixth successive term but he has arguably assembled stronger teams for the Festival than the one he will go to war with this year.

The likes of Al Ferof and Ghizao will be very competitive in the Supreme and Arkle respectively, but Nicholls may have to wait until day two of the meeting for his first winner. Aiteen Thirtythree's form hasn't much substance to it but he looks a big threat to Time For Rupert et al in the RSA Chase, whilst Master Minded is likely to be a warm order in his bid to wrestle back his Queen Mother crown from Big Zeb.

Poquelin in the Ryanair and Big Buck's in the World Hurdle are the pick of Nicholls' fifteen entries on the card on Thursday, while there is also plenty to look forward to on Friday. Nicholls needs just one more victory in the Gold Cup to emulate Tom Dreaper's long standing record of six wins in the race, and the merits of Kauto Star and Denman are well known at this stage. The master of Ditcheat is also likely to have multiply represented in the Triumph Hurdle, with Sam Winner and recent Kempton winner Zarkandar looking the pick of his entries. Just Amazing should also give a good account in the Foxhunter Chase.

With Big Buck's, Master Minded, Poquelin, as well as Kauto Star and Denman, at his disposal, it is difficult to envisage Nicholls not coming away from the Festival with at least three winners. However, that may not be good enough to see him crowned leading trainer as Henderson has a stronger squad numerically and, with his team firing on all cylinders at the moment, there seems some merit in backing Henderson at to have more than three winners at the Festival for only the second time in his illustrious career.

On that basis, Henderson also deserves to be slight favourite in the head to head market and is likely to trade shorter if he draws first blood on Tuesday.

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Just as you were coming to terms with the end of the Rio Carnival, the Dubai version winds up as well. At least there were some scantilly-clad Brazilians (not Ronaldinho) to help you get over the former, a trio of tips from Stephen Molyneux will have to do to greet the end of the Meydan jamboree

The 3-y-o colts have been a massive disappointment this year and they may have to play second fiddle again to Chocolicious in the 14:35. The likes of Mahbooba and Reem have dominated these events for the classic generation, Chocolicious not far behind that pair on her first two starts and she is sure to find this a lot easier. Her main challengers on form all have something to prove - Electric Waves is the clear pick on ratings but she raced exclusively over 5f last year and her effort when a distant third in the UAE Oaks was inconclusive as regards how far she is actually going to stay. Chocolicious actually beat Mahbooba in South Africa last year and although it's fair to say their careers have gone in different directions subsequently, this looks the perfect opportunity for Chocolicious to get hers back on track.

Opinion Poll could well develop into a 'cup' horse for Godolphin this season and he is expected to go close in the DRC Gold Cup at 16:30. He has finished runner-up on both his starts this Carnival, flashing home on both occasions and the step back up to 2m is sure to suit. Whispering Gallery and Claremont were the pair that beat him and they reoppose here but neither are as sure to be suited by the step up in trip as Opinion Poll. Hopefully Ahmed Ajetbi will keep him closer to the pace this time and make his class tell.

The 17:45 is a Group 2 over 1m but very few of these have pretensions to be cutting it at this sort of level. There is a chance Fanunalter falls into that category but he's looked an improved performer of late and should be given the chance to make his mark in a race that won't take as much winning as first appears. He is the type that perhaps keeps a bit for himself, hence why he keeps pulling out a bit more when least expected, and his reappearance at Meydan when second to Raihana came in a race that has worked out very well. Fanunalter briefly looked as though he would quicken all the way through but he hasn't always convinced as being a strong-stayer at 9f and in the end his effort was petering out. The drop back in trip will suit and expect to see him played late by Ryan Moore.

Recommendations
Back Chocolicious in the 14:35 Meydan
Back Opinion Poll in the 16:30 Meydan
Back Fanunalter in the 17:45 Meydan

The sponsors of the Imperial Cup offer the carrot of a £75,000 bonus should the winner go onto win a race at the Festival, but Saturday's handicap hurdle at Sandown is highly prestigious in its own right. Timeform's Adam Brookes looks over the field...

The betting reflects how competitive the race currently appears, but with Nicky Henderson suggesting that at least some of his four fancied runners might take up other engagements, prices of the market leaders are subject to change.

The favourite as things stand is the progressive Aegean Dawn, who is unbeaten over hurdles and produced his best performance last time when beating Mille Chief by four and a half lengths at Ascot. Aegean Dawn received 17 lb from Mille Chief that day and has gone up 26 lb as a result, so whilst he's likely to improve further, he'll have to in order to defy such a hefty rise.

The trainer has also has Swinton Hurdle winner Eradicate entered. However, Eradicate might just be handicapped up to his best at present, as for all that he has run well in two similar races this season, he's rather more exposed than a few in the field.

Owen Glendower has had only three starts over hurdles and remains open to progress, whilst dual novice chaser winner Giorgio Quercus is even more of an unknown quantity having not raced over hurdles since March 2009.

Martin Pipe won the Imperial Cup six times, collecting the bonus twice, and son David, who has won the race twice and landed the bonus with Gaspara in 2007, is doubly represented this year. Despite having gone up 12 lb for unseating in his last race, Arrayan had looked one of the most progressive handicap hurdlers around prior to that and has to be respected. The yard's other representative is Ronaldo des Mottes, who travelled well on his return behind Mille Chief in the Kingwell Hurdle, but will have to improve to concede weight to a number of improving horses.

Philip Hobbs won the race last year with Qaspal and the same horse is entered once more, despite not having had a race since. He has a 13 lb higher mark to contend with this year but remains unexposed and has to be considered. Stable-mate Pateese ran a game race on his first start in handicap company last time and should continue his progress with drying ground seemingly in his favour. However, he seemed to be comprehensively beaten by Via Galilei, who could take him on once more.

Via Galilei was impressive when winning the big handicap hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, producing a performance that marked him out as the one to beat in this race should he take his chance. Provided he's over his exertions, there is no reason why he shouldn't make his presence felt again as he's going to get the fast pace that suits his running style. Gary Moore also has Sire de Grugy entered, and he certainly has the ability to be very competitive in a race of this nature. However, he revelled in soft ground at Kempton last time and is unlikely to get those conditions on Saturday.

Alan King has two horses entered, but there's little doubt that his best chance is Trophy Hurdle fourth The Betchworth Kid. However, despite having the ability, he isn't a fault-free jumper and can often leave himself with a lot of ground to make up and, in such a competitive race, it isn't going to be easy for him.

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has only a single entry, Tito Bustillo, who has just a fair chance of being involved. With speed his forte, it's difficult to imagine a large field suiting him, and he disappointed when well-fancied for the County Hurdle at last year's Festival.

The Irish last won the Imperial Cup in 2006 with Victram and are set to send two horses over at this stage. However, Prince of Fire, who has largely been seen novice chasing this year with little effect, and Alpine Eagle, who doesn't appear to be well-handicapped, might struggle to add to that victory.

Of the other horses close up in the betting, the maiden Fiulin has the most to prove and has never raced in a handicap. Whilst he could prove well-suited to such a race, his trainer couldn't have found a more competitive one to start him off in.

For those who look for each-way value, Cheshire Prince, who confirmed that his sixth at Aintree on his penultimate start was a promising run when winning at Sandown last time, has ran some of his best races in big fields and has realistic place claims. With the drying ground likely to place more emphasis on his speed, he should not be underestimated.

The free-going Alarazi looks to have a chance on ratings, as does Rebel Dancer, whilst a revitalised Numide was almost back to his best last time, which would give him place prospects should he run. Old Way is reasonably well-fancied according to the market, but is going to find this very different to the novice hurdles he's been running in, whilst Kangaroo Court has to put two falls over fences well behind him.

Recommendations:
Back Arrayan to win in the Imperial Cup
Back Cheshire Prince for a win and place in the Imperial Cup

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Since the Festival was increased to four days in 2005 the number of Irish-trained winners has ranged from a high of ten in 2006 to just half that amount the following season. Things have levelled out a bit since with seven, nine and seven being the respective totals in the last three years. If the market is to be believed than it looks as if it will be a similar story this year with 2.8 the current odds available about 6-7 winners, but let's dig a little deeper to see if there is better value to be found elsewhere.

The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is a race that the Irish have traditionally done very well in down the years, including winning three of the last four renewals. Cue Card and Recession Proof head a formidable home team this time around but there will be a strong Irish challenge, though exactly how strong depends on Willie Mullins' running plans for his various entries.

At this stage it looks as if Zaidpour, who has been a shade disappointing since winning the Royal Bond in November, will be his main representative here, whilst the likes of Hidden Universe and Shot From The Hip are others that should give a good account.

Just over half an hour later sees the Arkle, in which the Irish will be seeking a third straight win, with Realt Dubh looking the pick of the entries at this stage.

Hurricane Fly holds a leading chance in what promises to be a fascinating renewal of the Champion Hurdle but, without a doubt, the best chance of an Irish-trained winner on the first day comes later on the card, with the Cross-Country Chase and David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. Since its inception in 2005, the Irish have dominated the former contest, and with Lacdoudal a notable absentee, it will be very disappointing if we fail to maintain our stranglehold, whilst the latter also looks Ireland's to lose, dual winner Quevega heading a strong challenge which also includes a trio of very talented novices; namely the unbeaten pair Our Girl Salley and Magen's Star as well as the much-improved Macville.

Another race I expect the Irish to win this season is the opener on day two, the National Hunt Chase. We have an embarrassment of riches here, with five of the top six in the ante-post market trained in Ireland. Quito de La Roque is already a dual Grade 2 winner over fences and will take plenty of beating if the ground comes up on the soft side, but a sounder surface will suit the Kerry National winner Alfa Beat who is on a six timer.

Oscars Well will be many people's idea of an Irish banker in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle and he will be ably backed up by a strong supporting cast which is likely to include at least one of So Young and Day of A Lifetime, both of whom are short on experience but possess enormous potential.

The RSA Chase often throws up a surprise result but the likes of Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream will warrant the utmost respect.

Master Minded has looked back to something near his very best this season but Big Zeb won't go down without a fight in the Champion Chase, whilst if Golden Silver can run to the level he is capable of in Ireland than he would also be in with a live chance.

The Irish suffered a rare reverse in the Champion Bumper last year, and with Samain, Lovethehigherlaw and Bold Optimist all ruled out, it is quite possible that we will fail to win it again this year. However, there have been plenty of whispers about Allure of Illusion in recent times and it is hard to know just how strong the British bumper form is.

Day three has been a bit of a disaster for the Irish in recent years and, even though it falls on St. Patrick's Day this year, one winner is probably the most we can hope for on what looks a particularly tough card.

Mourad, Fiveforthree and Solwhit (if he gets the trip), have each-way prospects in the World Hurdle but it is difficult to envisage one of them lowering the colours of Big Buck's or Grands Crus.

The Pertemps Final, Kim Muir and Byrne Group Chase are all very difficult handicaps; it is hard to know at this stage just what is going to turn up in the new look Jewson, but the defection of Somersby and injury to Riverside Theatre means that the Ryanair Chase is now wide open. Tranquil Sea disappointed in this last year but is unbeaten in two starts this season and has a good record when fresh.

Unfortunately, the final day may not be much better from an Irish point of view. It is highly unlikely that the Gold Cup will return to these shores for the first time since War of Attrition's victory in 2006 and our juveniles, with the exception of Unaccompanied, don't appear to be anything out of the ordinary.

The County Hurdle is just about the only handicap at the Festival that the Irish have done well in in recent times, winning three of the last four, and we are sure to be competitive in it again, Willie Mullins with several credible contenders, including Blackstairmountain, Final Approach and possibly the unexposed Earlson Gray.

We will also be well represented in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over three miles, but the Foxhunter is probably our last realistic chance of a winner, though our number one candidate, Enda Bolger's On The Fringe, is still far from certain to take his chance.

In truth, it isn't easy to find the value in this particular market. It seems reasonable to suggest that at least one of Hurricane Fly, Big Zeb and Tranquil Sea can win one of their respective races, whilst I think the Irish will win the Cross-Country Chase, the four-mile Chase and the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle. Therefore current odds of 7.6 about less than four winners makes little appeal. The Irish will be competitive in all the novices events, including the bumper, and it will be disappointing if we can't win at least two of these contests. It is unlikely that there will be more than one Irish-trained winner of a handicap, but there is always a chance of a surprise result (after all Ireland did beat England in cricket!) so let's be positive and suggest an interest on the Irish to have 8-9 winners at 3.75.

Recommendation: Back 8 or 9 winners @ 3.75 in the number of Irish-trained winners at the Cheltenham Festival market.

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Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor reflects on a brace of races from the weekend that are likely to have an impact on both the Grand National and the Scottish equivalent in the weeks ahead...

An overly-strong pace casts some doubt over the result of this year's Grimthorpe at Doncaster, with the presence of the patiently-ridden outsider Lothian Falcon (c126) in a close second underling that those held up were favoured. However, Always Right (c136p) has an excellent strike rate under rules and continued his progression in a much more competitive race following a 12 lb rise for last month's Kelso triumph. Admittedly, he was suited by the strong pace under a typically patient ride, but he jumped well on the whole and impressed with how quickly he asserted before seeming to idle after the last. The Scottish National was spoken up afterwards as an end-of-season target, though the longer trip would be a slight concern.

The runner-up was racing from 9 lb out of the weights but, equipped with first-time cheekpieces, returned to the sort of level that saw him win the Rowland Meyrick in 2007/8.

Character Building (c139) hasn't fired recently but the Grand National is clearly his prime target and he shaped better with that in mind, back to jumping soundly. Killyglen (c126+) has stamina doubts ahead of a crack at the Aintree showpiece. However, he at least shaped as if back in much better heart, doing too much in front and simply having no more left after hitting the penultimate fence.

One of the current market leaders for the Grand National was also in action in the Premier Chase at Kelso. Ballabriggs (c154) came unstuck on the day against the Nicky Richards-trained Skippers Brig (c144), however ante-post backers of the ten-year-old shouldn't feel too downbeat after his one-and-three-quarter length defeat.

Skippers Brig still hasn't had a great deal of racing for one of his age and will be of some interest returned to valuable staying handicaps now, especially considering a greater test of stamina should play to his strengths more. He has an entry in the three-mile Grade 3 handicap on the opening day of the Festival, incidentally.

Ballabriggs' whole season has been geared towards Aintree and he shaped better for that target than being turned over at short odds implies, again jumping most fluently and looking the likely winner for a long way before Skippers Brig, who had been stoked up from much further out, caught him close home.

Chief Dan George (c146) was refitted with cheekpieces and ran a few pounds below his best as he plodded on to reclaim third late in the day.

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One of the more valuable races run last weekend was the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, which was won by the Jon Wade-trained Always Right. Always Right is improving fast and reportedly has the Scottish National on his agenda now, though the way he travels casts some doubt as to the suitability of the extra three quarters of a mile he would encounter at Ayr. Of those in behind, one of the more eyecatching efforts was that of the third home Character Building, who ran a pretty encouraging Grand National trial, jumping well and rallying late. He may not feature among the best-treated Nationals entries, but he took to the fences pretty well last year and has had a smoother preparation this time around, so the current price available about him 48.0 is arguably a touch on the big side.

Perhaps the other most notable performance at Doncaster on Saturday was that of Montbazon, who won the valuable bumper on the card in impressive fashion, producing a level of form not far removed from what is normally required to have a say in one of the big Festival bumpers. Aintree rather than Cheltenham is reportedly going to be Montbazon's next port of call according to Alan King.

Down at Newbury the feature was the Greatwood Gold Cup, which went the way of Charlie Mann's progressive handicap chaser Fine Parchment. Fine Parchment holds an entry for next week's Festival Plate at Cheltenham, but the Topham at Aintree is said to be his preferred target. Aintree is also on the agenda for Big Fella Thanks and Niche Market, both of whom shaped with some degree of promise with a view to the Grand National. The two of them feature prominently in the market for that race at around the 18.0 mark.

Another horse who is towards the head of the Grand National market is Ballabriggs, who is a 17.0 shot for the race despite meeting with defeat reverting to fences for the first time this season in Saturday's Premier Chase at Kelso. That Ballabriggs hasn't eased much for the National reflects the idea that there were positives to be drawn from his performance, jumping with typical aplomb and only nailed close home. The winner, Skippers Brig is quite lightly raced for one of his age, but he has an impressive strike rate and will be a player for big staying handicaps this spring.

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For many 'Super Thursday' will be no different to 'Mundane Monday' or 'Turgid Tuesday', but avid followers of the Dubai Carnival will be beside themselves at the prospect of a race meeting jam-packed full of top-quality thoroughbreds. Here is a trio who can hopefully make their mark on Dubai World Cup trials day...

Simon de Montfort is easily the most interesting horse in the Dubai City of Gold (17:30) and he can hopefully take the race enroute to the Dubai Sheema Classic. Connections harboured classic aspirations last spring after a couple of wins at Saint-Cloud and Longchamp but, for whatever reason, he wasn't seen out again in 2010. He made his reappearance and first start for Mahmood Al Zarooni in a handicap at Meydan earlier at the Carnival and readily came clear of Once More Dubai, the style in which he scythed his way through the field most taking. Admittedly, the form hasn't worked out, but Simon de Montfort's potential overrides that fact and, if anything, he should improve again for this step up in trip.

All eyes will be on Twice Over in the Al Maktoum Challenge (18:05), but he could be worth opposing with Musir, who is of just as much interest looking ahead to the Dubai World Cup itself. Musir was unbeaten at Meydan last year, including victory in the UAE Derby, and his reappearance when second behind Skysurfers contained plenty of promise. He quickened up very well initially before his absence seemed to tell, yet he still put plenty of daylight between himself and the rest. The step back up in trip looks sure to suit and he will now have a fitness advantage over several of his rivals.

Presvis will obviously be a tough nut to crack in the Jebel Hatta (18:45) but he has long-since been a horse where everything needs to go his way and there could be some mileage in opposing him with Poet's Voice. The run of the race really suited Presvis in the Al Rashidiya, a strong pace contributing to his final winning distance, but there doesn't look to be anywhere near as much pace in this - in fact the only front runner looks to be Shakespearean. Poet's Voice isn't guaranteed to stay this far, his improvement last year coming at a mile and clearly not getting home in the Champion Stakes on his final start, but as long as he settles - and that has been the main issue with him in the past - then he can put his turn of foot to good use and should at least offer some value against the likely favourite.

Recommendations:
Back Simon de Montfort in the 17:30 Meydan
Back Musir in the 18:05 Meydan
Back Poet's Voice in the 18:45 Meydan

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If the betting for top jockey at the Festival has it right, then it seems Irish eyes will be smiling as Walsh 2.56, Geraghty 3.7 and McCoy 9.2 comfortably head the market, but with Medermit, Bensalem and Mille Chief all holding solid chances in their respective races, the 15.0 about Robert Thornton may tempt your clicking finger. Richard Johnson 13.0 also has some very nice rides to look forward to and he too seems a big price.

If you do fancy 'Choc' to be top jock in two week's time, it would probably make sense to also back his boss Alan King 12.0 to be top trainer , as it looks as though that is where the ammunition is primarily going to come from. Of the home defence, it's the usual suspects in Nicholls 2.4 and Henderson 2.26 who show the way, with leader of the invasion Willie Mullins 6.0 most likely to upset the front two according to the market.

With Hurricane Fly, Big Zeb, Golden Silver, Unaccompanied and a host of other Irish invaders holding strong chances at the Festival, you may well be tempted by the '6-7 winners' bet on the market open for predicting the number of Irish-trained winners. On the other hand, the number of British-based fancies might sway you in favour of the odds on offer about 'less than 4 winners' being trained in the Emerald Isle.

If Cheltenham Fever has really got to your head, then you might find yourself delving into some of the more obscure markets, possibly looking for a bet that's at least going to get you past the opening day. If this is you, then the one you may find to your liking is the 'Longest SP winner' bet where '33/1-50/1 inclusive' 1.61 appears all the rage. However, if you don't envisage any major shocks in store, the 6.4 for 'Shorter than 33/1' might be more up your street.

If the pre-Festival jolly-up has well and truly loosened your punting defences, you may also find the 'Odd vs. Even' bet extremely appealing, as you must decide, according to racecard number, whether you think odd or even numbers will provide the most Cheltenham winners. Should indecision grab you, however, you can play it down the middle with a tie.

Finally, and returning to the opening paragraph, there is also a market on 'Championship Accumulators' for those of you who did indeed fancy Binocular to win the Champion Hurdle and Big Bucks's to win the World Hurdle, and the like. That particular bet is currently available at 7.6.

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