TimeformBlog

A really tricky opening to the card at 11.00, which should at least ensure a reasonable price about Kavango, the five-year-old taken to build on the glimmer of promise he showed behind Musir on his reappearance. Kavango finished runner-up three times at the Carnival 12 months ago and, although on the face of things he looks high enough in the weights, it's one of those races where handicap marks may not actually count for much given how closely matched the 14 runners are. He wasn't really entitled to be involved in the Maktoum Challenge (Round 1) on his reappearance given his rating, but he actually shaped quite well in racing prominently for a long way before the lack of a recent run began to take its toll, early keenness not exactly helping either. He's fully entitled to come on for that and he should get the run of the race from stall one.

Captain Obvious will bid to continue the fine run of success enjoyed by Steven Burridge at the Carnival this year in the feature race at 13.25, his record currently standing at four winners from just five runners (IP Man should enhance that in the 11.35), but the value could lie elsewhere and principally with Alo Pura, who would have given Captain Obvious plenty to think about last time had she had any sort of luck. Alo Pura has rarely finished out of the first three throughout her whole career and is still getting better if anything, her win at Jebel Ali in December (when ahead of Mujaazef) certainly suggesting as much. There should be more pace in this race with both Krypton Factor and Addictive Dream expected to press on, and her draw in stall two compared to that of stall 11 for Captain Obvious could prove the difference come the finish.

The staying handicap at 14.00 sees the reappearance of Fox Hunt who looks sure to go well on his first start for Mahmood Al Zarooni, but preference is for Manjakani, who has been crying out for this sort of trip and will almost certainly represent better value. He progressed well for Andre Fabre last year and has carried on going the right way for this yard, finishing in the frame in handicaps at Meydan this year. He's essentially been made to look one paced on both occasions and although stall 13 is a slight concern, he should have enough time to secure a good position and can hopefully get into the first three at the very least.

Back Kavango to win and place in the 11.00
Back Alo Pura to win the 13.25
Back Manjakani to win and place in the 14.00

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Alben Star was well backed to win C&D handicap on return and even better in defeat at Lingfield since when fast-finishing ½-length second to Seek The Fair Land. Boasts superb strike rate and has even more to offer.

Capone's best runs in 2011 came on AW, winning handicaps at Kempton/Lingfield. Clicked for new trainer when good third of 12 to Oasis Dancer on return at last-named track and leading claims at the weights.

Elna Bright produced a career-best to take C&D handicap in November and not far off that level when 1½ lengths second of 7 to Palace Moon in 7f minor event at Kempton last time. Bit to find on form.

Little Garcon was progressive in 2010 when success in 6f Ascot handicap was the highlight. No recent form, well behind second-home Alben Star at Lingfield recently, and blinkers now tried to revive fortunes.

Where's Reiley is a multiple AW scorer but stands little chance at these weights.

Sugar Beet is a progressive sprint filly with a cracking strike rate (6-22), latest success coming in 5f Kempton handicap. That was a career best and with stable going well looks capable of another bold show.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Capone
2. Alben Star
3. Sugar Beet

Timeform View: An interesting sprint and there's not a great deal between the speedy trio Capone, Alben Star and Sugar Beet, selected in that order.

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First up is the Bryan Smart-trained Bond Style (15:00) at Southwell, who produced his best effort yet when switched to the surface when a rallying third over six furlongs in December. Today's return to a furlong further should suit Bond Style, and he looks a good bet to get off the mark with the first-time cheekpieces expected to enable him to pull out a tad more.

Star Links, who goes in the 15:50 at Wolverhampton, is a three-time course winner who has largely run with credit since regaining the winning thread over a mile at Naas in August. Star Links was a close third to Tarooq over course and distance when last seen in November and the 2 lb rise for that effort looks fair given that the form has worked out well since. A big run looks on the cards this afternoon.

Last but by no means least we come to Suddenly Susan (16:00) in the six-furlong handicap at Southwell, whose two career wins have come over course and distance, the latter when making all for a runaway success in December. Suddenly Susan comes into today's race on the back of two respectable efforts on polytrack and, with a more than capable claimer on board, she is expected to go very close today.

Back Bond Style @ 5.2 in the 15:00 at Southwell
Back Star Links @ 4.8 in the 15:50 at Wolverhampton
Back Suddenly Susan @ 3.1 in the 16:00 at Southwell

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Et Maintenant has not won since April 2010 but best effort this season from slipping mark when runner-up at Ayr last time. Never been the most consistent but obvious chance if backing that up.

Playing The Field is not one to rely on but took advantage of handicapper's leniency when getting off mark over C&D last month, having enough in hand that temperament wasn't tested. This tougher back up 10 lb.

Ballycarron Lad got off the mark at the third time of asking over fences at Carlisle (3m) in March. Laboured fourth of 7 back from 9 months at Ayr last month, but should at least be sharper now.

Milans Man is a point winner who was successful twice at up to 25f over hurdles. Nothing like so good over fences for Howard Johnson last season and yet to show anything for new yard. Cheekpieces need to revive.

Soul Angel won at Hexham in March and on return to action at Musselburgh (2½m) in December. However, behind a couple of these off revised mark over C&D since.

Teerie Express' C&D win is among his 3 victories over fences and back from 9-month absence with good 5 lengths third of 8 to Playing The Field over C&D last month. Fair chance he'll turn the tables on 11 lb better terms.

Definite Appeal is a point winner who got off mark under Rules in 3m Musselburgh handicap on New Year's Day. Keeping on when unseating 4 out at Catterick since and rates a leading player here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Definite Appeal
2. Teerie Express
3. Playing The Field

Timeform View: Musselburgh-scorer Definite Appeal was still in the hunt when departing 4 out at Catterick since and can get back to winning ways here. Teerie Express was only third to Playing The Field over C&D last time, but is fancied to turn the tables after an 11 lb swing in the weights.

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13:40 - Now, a 16-runner Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle is not normally a situation in which I would encourage a banker, but it will be extremely disappointing if That's Some Milan cannot make the frame here. A former point-winner, the selection should be suited by the step up to three miles today and is open to further improvement on his handicap debut.

14:10 - Next up is the novice hurdle and Dildar, who showed fair form on the Flat in France, is likely to go off a short-priced favourite here but he must be included given his connections and the fact he receives weight all round. This is Dildar's hurdling debut, however, so we will also side with Constant Contact who shaped well in a very strong event at Newbury last month and is entitled to improve for that experience.

14:40 - Sanctuaire is set to go off a red-hot favourite here and he was clearly the best of these over hurdles. He is far from straightforward, however, so we will take both Easter Meteor and Shammick Boy who have both won over fences this season and look the most likely to prevail should the favourite's temperament let him down.

15:10 - A competitive handicap hurdle follows and we will look to side with two. Ted Spread respresents the combination of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh and looks set for a bold show on his handicap debut after chasing home Grumeti here last month. We will also take Aather who is looking increasingly well-handicapped and ran well enough on his reappearance at Cheltenham (still close up two out) to suggest he is well capable of being involved here.

15:40 - Another handicap hurdle and we will bank on the Venetia Williams-trained Val Mondo who will hopefully be able to transfer the ability he showed on the Flat in Germany to hurdles. He represents banker material in the fifth.

16:10 - Having got this far, it would be folly to take a gamble in the last so we side with two once again. Wessex King, who won a similar event at Stratford on his penultimate start, will be given another chance after disappointing last time. Humbel Ben comes with risks attached given his below-par effort at Exeter last time but, prior to that, he had shaped as if ahead of his current handicap mark and this race could be run to suit.

Selections:

13:40 - 6
14:10 - 4, 14
14:40 - 1, 2
15:10 - 5, 7
15:40 - 8
16:10 - 6, 10

Lines=16

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Grey Gold was a Hereford novice hurdle winner last season who took form to new level when making winning reappearance in 17f Bangor handicap in November. This tougher off 9 lb higher but could have more to give.

Monetary Fund is a fairly useful hurdler who largely performed with credit in some competitive handicaps for Nicky Henderson last term. Returns to track with his new yard in form and no shock if he goes close.

Pantxoa has still not got many miles on the clock and returned with a pair of good placed efforts in competitive 2m handicap hurdles. Excuses can be made for latest run and no surprise if he bounces back.

Pascha Bere is a useful hurdler who made a pleasing return to action when fourth to Featherbed Lane at Ascot. Excuses for both runs since (given plenty to do last time) and chances are he remains in form.

Ted Spread was smart on the Flat up to 1¾m for Mark Tompkins. Promise both starts over hurdles, joining Paul Nicholls before second to Grumeti over C&D last month. Tongue tied now and almost certainly more to come.

Ifyouletmefinish is a bumper winner who has shaped with promise when placed in pair of novice hurdles over C&D in recent weeks, chasing home smart Pearl Swan last time. Another who could easily have more to give.

Aather is a pretty useful hurdler on his day. Edged down weights after a winless 2010/11 campaign for Alan Fleming and should be sharper for last month's return. Yard off cold list at Wincanton recently.

Wings of Smoke progressed well over hurdles last summer, winning novice at Aintree and fourth in Hexham handicap. Travelled well long way under testing conditions on recent return and this test more suitable.

Double Handful was fair on the Flat and switch to Lawney Hill has seen him translate that to hurdles, bolting up twice this month (C&D first occasion). Higher mark in stronger race demands more but could be up to it.

Sacrilege is an ungenuine hurdler who ran respectably when third in 2m Newbury handicap last March. No impact on recent return from break at Sandown, though, and likely to find this too competitive.

Bathwick Brave finished placed in both outings in bumpers and on 3 of 4 starts in novice hurdles. Didn't seem to face a visor when well beaten on recent handicap bow and no surprise to see headgear off now. Still early days.

Cantabilly has found winning difficult in recent times and fact he was only third in a claimer over C&D last time suggests he's likely to find it tough going back in a competitive handicap.

Leopard Hills' 4 wins over hurdles have come in selling company. Well held in handicap over C&D a month ago and same fate awaits here in all probability.

Piroulet is an ex-French gelding who held every chance when jockey caught unawares on run-in at Exeter a year ago. Not progressed since, including in blinkers on recent handicap bow. Tongue tie also added now.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Ted Spread
2. Double Handful
3. Monetary Fund

Timeform Verdict: A rise in the weights shouldn't prevent Double Handful from going close in his hat-trick bid but a mark of 120 could easily underestimate smart Flat performer Ted Spread, and he can go in at the second time of asking for Paul Nicholls. Monetary Fund and Pantxoa also make the shortlist.

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Lupanar has gone over 3 years since last success and increasingly let down by attitude. This easier than races he's been contesting but still can't be supported with maximum confidence.

Deep Pockets has won 3 times over fences at Plumpton and definite scope off current mark over hurdles judged on Towcester second back in May. Player if ready to go after his break.

Storm Survivor improved when easily landing gamble over 2¾m at Folkestone in November. Inexperience arguably cost him second win on New Year's Day and visored now. Leading claims stepped up in trip.

Sapphire Rouge won 3m Southwell handicap in the summer. Runner-up twice since, and will find this easier than Ascot contest she ran in last time, though no hiding place from current mark.

Go Amwell is an ungenuine sort who was revived by a change of headgear when winning 3¼m handicap at Huntingdon in November. 10 lb rise wasn't excessive but highlighted moody side back there on Boxing Day.

The Red Laird won 25f Warwick handicap in December 2010. Fair fourth at Catterick when last seen almost a year ago, but beaten on comeback runs here last 2 seasons and others could prove safer.

Bobbie Magern has been subject of market support last twice but not shaping like a winner waiting to happen. Needs first-time blinkers to get him back on track.

Twin Bud is a modest maiden who has saved her best efforts this season for Plumpton. Step up in trip will suit and not without a chance if on one of her going days.

Balustrade has a patchy record since sole success in 2¾m Fontwell handicap in January 2011. Laboured effort in admittedly tougher contest last time and not one to trust.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Storm Survivor
2. Twin Bud
3. Deep Pockets

Timeform Verdict: The fitting of a visor and step up in trip can get Storm Survivor back on track and he's a strong fancy. Twin Bud could give supporters a good run for their money, while Deep Pockets also has place claims.

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Benny Be Good completed hat-trick over fences at Market Rasen in September, and has continued the good work over both fences/hurdles in the top handicaps of late. Should make bold bid to defy top weight.

Oscargo is a lightly-raced hurdler who won 3m handicap at Cheltenham last month. Unseated rider at the sixth when short-priced favourite to follow up there last time and sure to be popular once more.

Sir Kezbaah ended last season in tremendous form, winning back-to-back handicaps at Exeter and Cheltenham. Further improvement not ruled out if fully tuned up for belated return.

Lightning Strike is a useful hurdler/chaser on his day and right back to best when scoring at Hereford (2¾m) earlier this month. Failed to back that up just six days later in Lanzarote at Kempton, however.

Dorset Square scored 3 times at up to 3m in 2009/10 and back to winning ways at Cheltenham in November. Left Willie Mullins after that victory and needs to bounce back from poor display at Warwick last time.

Allthekingshorses is an Irish point winner who made winning start over hurdles at Exeter (2¾m) in November. Breathing problem when below par at Newcastle, but again not at best in first-time tongue tie latest.

Occasionally Yours was placed several times in competitive handicaps before regaining winning thread at Worcester (2½m) in June. Very hit and miss since, though, and others make greater appeal.

Tour des Champs created a good impression when winning Stratford novice on debut in October and put Cheltenham fall behind him when third at Chepstow last time. Capable of better now moving into handicaps.

Theologist has taken form to a new level since fitted with blinkers of late, staying on strongly to win at Newcastle last time. 10 lb higher mark requires more but can't be ignored in current heart.

Mr Jay Dee won second race over hurdles here (2½m) in November, but looked found out by lack of stamina at Warwick (3m) on latest start, and that has to be massive concern over extra 2f here.

Rose of The Moon has shown useful form in defeat last season for Milton Harris and made winning start for this yard at Uttoxeter in November. Raced lazily when only third last time but first-time blinkers could prove the key.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Rose of The Moon
2. Benny Be Good
3. Oscargo

Timeform Verdict: Oscargo will be well fancied to make amends for his Cheltenham mishap and Benny Be Good should continue to run well, but Rose of The Moon could make them all go if first-time blinkers work the oracle and is the selection.

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Ad Idem is a strong traveller who has been in form of his life this term, just touched off in Troytown at Navan before not really getting the run of things at Leopardstown. Vulnerable off this mark, however.

Western Charmer is a largely consistent sort who ran well when second in Irish National at Fairyhouse and Grade 1 novice within space of 8 days last spring, but disappointing last time and high enough in the weights.

Tharawaat is not most consistent but talented when on his game, as he showed when readily winning 2¾m handicap chase at Galway in October. Below that level since but could go well if everything clicks.

Shakervilz is a smart hurdler/chaser at his best and hinted at a return to form when third in Grade 2 hurdle at Leopardstown last time, albeit allowed to dictate pace. Booking of Ruby Walsh catches the eye.

Some Target shaped well over both hurdles and fences since returning to action, fourth in Troytown at Navan, but jumping issues resurfaced at Leopardstown over Christmas and could again prove his achilles heel.

Jack The Bus has not got many miles on the clock and better than ever when winning handicap at Navan earlier this month. Been raised 7 lb and now in much more competitive event, however.

Adams Island was a useful novice in Britain, winning twice over fences for Rebecca Curtis. First worthwhile form for this yard when third over hurdles last time and accorded respect off this sort of mark.

Bob Lingo is a front runner who was given plenty of rope when winning a Fairyhouse maiden chase by 20 lengths in 2010/11. Back to form last 2 starts as well, but does look handicapped to the hilt.

Rivage d'Or is a useful hurdler last season and has made good start over fences, winning at Thurles in November. Often finishes weakly, though, and well held off 1 lb higher mark last time.

The Bishop Looney was better than ever in October/November, winning at Galway and following up in Cork National. Raised 9 lb for latter success and that seemed to anchor him at Leopardstown last time.

Glam Gerry is a strong traveller who won over hurdles at Leopardstown (2½m) in 2010/11 and made successful handicap debut in this sphere back there last time. Not always fluent that day and now 20 lb higher, however.

Start Me Up is a bumper/hurdle winner who is proving progressive over fences, winning maiden at Navan in December and then third off similar mark at Limerick. Not yet fully exposed at 3m and could go well.

Telenor dead-heated in a Grade 2 novice at Navan in early-2010 but seen just 5 times since and has looked shadow of his former self this season. Not hard to oppose.

Tinakellylad is a mudlark who isn't the most consistent but ran as well as he's ever done when second at Cork (2½m) last time. Just as effective at this sort of trip too, but is 4 lb higher and in better race.

Jadanli was flattered by his win in the 2010 Powers Gold Cup and largely let down by jumping since, including in big-field events the last twice. Looks a
longshot.

On His Own's jumping often an issue over fences last term for Howard Johnson, despite wins at Musselburgh and Ayr, and again not always fluent before brought down on return, but could go well with a clear round.

Quadrillon did not go on as expected after winning 2½m maiden chase at Gowran last season and better effort this term, when sixth in Troytown at Navan, still leaves him with a bit to find.

Paddy Pub was in good heart in staying handicap chases back in 2009/10 and first signs that he retains that ability when fourth in first-time blinkers latest start. Hard to see him winning this all the same.

Tullintain was successful this time last year at Punchestown (2½m) off 17 lb lower mark, and back to form when chasing home in-form rival at Limerick on latest. Never really convinced with stamina for 3m, though.

Stephanie Kate has translated her useful hurdles form to fences, runner-up in all 3 completed starts, and appeals as the type to be suited by 3m. Could easily make the shake-up if getting a run.

Smoking Aces proved well suited by the fitting of blinkers and extreme stamina test when scoring over 29f at Fairyhouse in December, but never landed a blow ddropped back to 3m at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. On His Own
2. Start Me Up
3. Adams Island

Timeform View: There are question marks over the jumping of On His Own, but he's worth another chance in a race where unexposed sorts are thin on the ground given the impression created last term. Start Me Up rates as a solid place option with a good 7 lb claimer up, while Adams Island came back to form over hurdles last time and is another to consider.

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Tyrone House got back on the up when edging out another progressive rival on reappearance at Wetherby (2½m) last month. Longer trip no problem, but another career best required to defy new mark.

Fabalu took well to fences in 2009/10, winning twice at up to 3¼m. Tired badly on return from 21 months off at Ffos Las in December, and hard to gauge how much ability he retains.

Categorical gained 2 of 4 chase wins over shorter at this venue. Stays this far, but not his usual consistent self since a pleasing return in October, running a lifeless race back here last time.

Rolecarr is a real mudlark who gamely registered second chase win at Kelso (25f) last month. More on plate to follow-up, but unlikely to be far away with ideal conditions remaining in place.

Eyre Square has a good strike rate, showing good battling qualities when narrowly landing Scottish Borders National at Kelso last month. Conditions fine and further 5 lb rise not necessarily beyond him.

You Know Yourself has been successful 4 times at up to 3¼m over fences, grinding down rivals for latest win at Carlisle in November, but well held at Haydock last time and yet to win off a mark this high.

Montoya's Son was better than ever first-time up for this yard when third at Doncaster (19f) in December. Shaped as if amiss last time, though, and stamina to prove pitched in against some real staying types here.

Etxalar got back on track when chasing home an in-form rival at Carlisle (3¼m) in November, but suspect jumping again in evidence at Cheltenham last time and needs to keep the errors down if he is to prevail.

Minster Shadow is a thorough stayer who has achieved little of note since his runner-up effort off a higher mark at Carlisle (3¼m) in November 2010, offering no hint of a revival at that venue in October.

Morgan Be was successful in a 25f Hexham handicap in March. Firm step back in the right direction when finishing on the heels of Etxalar at Carlisle in November and not out of this by any means.

Allanard has been progressing nicely over fences, jumping with aplomb in a first-time visor when winning with some authority at Ayr (25f) recently. Obvious claims under his penalty if visor has same effect.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Allanard
2. Eyre Square
3. Morgan Be

Timeform View: Several of these are suited by a slog through the mud and choosing between them isn't easy. That said, Allanard looked like one very much ahead of his mark when winning in style at Ayr recently and could well be up to defying his penalty. Eyre Square and Morgan Be are suggested as the best alternatives.

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