TheSnapper

Bank Updates Aug.31,2011

TheSnapper's Half-Bank:$795,83
Shannon's Demon: $1418,65
MLB Half-Bank: $202,50
Soccer Half-Bank: $200,91
Total Funds: $2617,89

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The Snapper's MLB Lays - Sept.1, 2011 (Lay these teams at or under the given odds)

Seattle (C Furbush)    
2.62    
NY Mets (M Batista)    
1.99    
Washington (C Wang)    
3.15    
NY Yankees (A Burnett)    
2.86    
St Louis (B Dickson)    
2.82    
Philadelphia (V Worley)    
1.8    
   
My MLB lays to date:
Bets: 53
Profit: +2,65 units
Edge: 5%
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TheSnapper Horseracing place lays this week:

Total Bets    Total Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profits    Units in Profit    Edge    Edge by Stake
116    83    71,55%    $456,17    $91,66    12,12    10,45%    20,09%

Right on target for the week. I now have 12,12 units in profit. When I hit +25 units, it's time to go up a level. I made a solid 2,33 units yesterday on 21 lay bets.
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TheSnapper's soccer lays will not be underway for a few days. There are no good events on today. I have been diversifying my laying universe to now cover: horseracing, MLB Baseball, soccer, NFL football, NHL hockey and NBA basketball.

I am doing this to expand the number of lays each month, in an effort to increase my total turnover. I am taking my small bank and trying to get more out of it bymaking many more smaller level bets. All of my lays are based on math, not on subjective opinions, and relying on backers becoming over-enthusiastic about prices and driving them into a range which is profitable to lay at over the long-run. I will post my stats so that my followers can decide for themselves how useful my strategy is. All of my selections and the odds to lay them at or below will be available once I have laid them. I don't care how many more layers pile into them after I get the price I want.

You are all welcome to follow along, but I warn you. Don't ask me how or why or complain and be prepared to sit it out for the long-run through thick and thin. You will be rewarded in the long-run.
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Bank Updates Aug.31,2011

TheSnapper's Half-Bank:$787,11
Shannon's Demon: $1568,34
MLB Half-Bank: $200,87
Total Funds: $2556,32
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TheSnapper's Place Lays (since Aug 26.):
                           
Total Bets    Total Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profits    Units in Profit    Edge    Edge by Stake
95    67    70,53%    $381,02    $74,21    9,74    10,26%    19,48%

So far, so good with my plan to mix level staking with a ratchet.  I've gained +9,74 units (each unit is 1% of the bank). If I drop back -25 units in profit, I will reset the stake to 1% of the bank.
When my bank reaches +25 units, I will increase the stakes again to 1% of the bank.

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MLB lay results

Bets: 44
Units in profit: +1,02
Edge: +2,3%

Well, a small profit so far, but this is only after 44 bets, so it is early days...


TheSnapper's Lay MLB Bets for Aug.31,2011

Colorado (E Rogers)        
2.48        
St Louis (J Westbrook)        
2.4        
Washington (J Lannan)        
2.68        
Toronto (H Alvarez)        
1.93        
NY Yankees (P Hughes)        
2.64        
San Francisco (M Bumgarner)        
1.57        
San Diego (W Leblanc)        
2.5

Lay these teams at under the given odds.   
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Tomorrow, I plan to start giving out my free soccer lays to my long-suffering followers on Betfair. Feel free to use them and monitor the results and profits. They are long-term proits winners for me and I will post only the bets which have already been matched and the odds necessary to profit on them. Just don't ask my how or why...just take the profits and run.
There are no soccer lays today.
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Bank Updates Aug.30,2011

TheSnapper's Half-Bank:$772,44
Shannon's Demon: $1568,20
MLB Half-Bank: $205,31
Total Funds: $2545,95
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MLB Results to date:
Total Bets    Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profit    Units in Profit    Edge by units    Edge by stake
43    26    60,47%    $85,95    $8,99    4,54    10,57%    10,46%

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Shannon's Demon
Stocks: 11,93 units
Bonds:  7,03 units
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TheSnapper's MLB Free Lay Bets for Tuesday, Aug.30

Arizona (W Miley)
1.76
St Louis (E Jackson)
2.56
Texas (S Feldman)
1.72
Chicago White Sox (Z Stewart)
1.72
Mets (M Pelfrey)
1.96
Philadelphia (R Halladay)
1.59

Lay these teams at these odds or lower. Use 1% of your bank. I've made these bets myself, so I eat my own cooking, so to speak! Over time these picks will provide solid profits for your bank.

OK. I'm back from holiday and I've had some time to assess the situation. I'm going to have to make some changes because Mr.Kelly's summer slump has burned though my ratchet and threatened my bank.

Rule#1 in gambling...THE PRIME DIRECTIVE...Protect your bank

So, although Mr.Kelly brought some great highs, he also brought some great lows. Overall, the problem seems to be overstaking, I can't quite seem to calculate exactly what the best stake should be. Anyway, I decided I needed some steadier profits, rather than wild up and down swings. To achieve this requires a return to lower stakes and more bets. Level stakes which are adjusted daily, so I still get some compounding effect, but with the security of level staking. It seems the best of both worlds.

So, I still have $1500 in reserve in Shannon's Demon. What I'll do is leave the reserve bank in investments and re-structure my betting funds to use a $750 ratchet half-bank. I'll set my stake at a very cautious 1% liability (that's about as low as you can bet with...all my stats agree that my edge is above 1%) and start grinding away in the horse racing place markets. OK, maybe I won't get to my goal so fast, but getting there at all is what my goal is.

I'll withdraw half of my profits each day from Betfair and invest them in the Demon. This will keep half of my bank out of the clutches of Betfair and keep the green flowing in the right direction.
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Results from 26.08 to today have been back on track:

Total Bets    Total Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profits    Units in Profit    Edge    Edge by Stake
50    39    78,00%    $178,06    $63,04    +8,32    16,64%    35,40%

I can make a withdrawal of $31,52 to my investment fund. My stake has moved up from $7,50 to $7,82
So, it's going to take some time to build this bank up again. Sorry, not too exciting stuff...but I'm in it for the long run, not the quick buck.
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MLB Baseball Bank is open! I'll give out my picks and THE ODDS for you all.

I have also opened up a new small betting bank for MLB Baseball. It has a half-bank of $200 and I recemmend using 1% of your bank per selection. Recalculate your stake each day.I will add my picks here each day...PLUS (most importantly)the ODDS which are profitable to bet at. (Most tipsters just give you the team to bet on, but leave out the odds, which is nuts because only the odds matter). All of you are free to try them out. Give it a few weeks and you should be solidly in profit. Just don't ask me how or why I do it. Let the results speak for themselves. (Since I have already placed the bets, I don't care how many others use my selections.)

My MLB results from 26.08 to today are:
Total Bets    Wins    Win%    Total Stake    Total Profit    Units in Profit    Edge by units    Edge by stake
                           
27    18    66,67%    $51,71    $12,23    +6,12    22,65%    23,65%
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The Snapper's free MLB Lays for Monday, August 29
(Lay the following at or below the given prices. Use 1% of your bank per selection)

LA Angels (J Pineiro)        
1.88        
Colorado (A White)        
2.62        
Pittsburgh (R Ohlendorf)        
2.34        
Toronto (R Romero)        
1.74        
Cleveland (D Huff)        
1.9        
Philadelphia (C Hamels)        
1.68        
(note: these are the only selections I will reveal today. There are others, but they have not yet been matched)       
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Off on holiday for a few days/ Just a quick update. Trader Phil has racked up a profit of $21,85 over 43 markets. His bank has increased to $212,71 and he has actually made a withdrawal from Betfair of $10,33 (The first cash sent to the investment demon for a long,long time!). His ratchet is has moved up from $100 to $106,36 and his stake is up to $53,18 from a starting stake of $50.

Good work, Phil!

Well, I ran into my old friend(?!) Trader Phil yesterday after a(nother) bad weekend of results. He asked me to sit down and have a chat. Our conversation when something like this:

Phil: Why are you looking so down?
Snapper:Phil, it's been three months with no profit...just snakes and ladders. I can't take it any more. It's driving me nuts. I seem to have hit some sort of liquidity barrier. Neither Mr.Kelly nor I can seem to make much progress.
Phil: Are you up or down overall?
Snapper: Well, we are up very well over the long run...1400+ bets and we seem to be taking in around 10% overall profit. So, the system seems OK, but we are getting impatient. I want to push ahead and not keep getting knocked back every day or two.
Phil: How's Mr.Kelly?
Snapper: Big ups and big downs. Recently, he has burned right down to his ratchet, and I don't want to take the invested profits from Shannon's Demon to refill his bank.
Phil: I see, so you have been having big"ups" and big "downs" with the guy?
Snapper: Right. It's getting really frustrating. I need to make a change.
Phil: So you want to get more steady "up" and less "up and down"?
Snapper: Exactly.
Phil: If you want that, you will have to trade the markets like I do.
Snapper: Phil, if you can do that for me, I would be very grateful.
Phil: Here, let me show you what I can do for you

Phil quickly whips out his I-Pad, trades three markets over 20 minutes and makes a profit of $10 using a $50 stake).

Snapper: Damn it Jim, that was impressive. You just made more profit in 20 minutes than Mr.Kelly and I have in over a month.
Phil. Yup.
Snapper: Phil, you have to do it for me. You are hired.
Phil: Well, I 'll do it for you Snapper. But there are some conditions. First, keep that Mr.Kelly away from me...all those cigarettes and guns...Second, you put up the stake. Give me a small bank of $200 and I'll use a ratchet of $50 on it, so I'll start trading at $50 and move it up as I go. Third, don't give me any targets or pressure. There's going to be losses. Trading is not risk-free either.
Snapper: Can you get me to Florida, Phil?
Phil: No promises, Snapper, but I'll do my best.

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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 462,51
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 943,80
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $172,06
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 546,96
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$232,78
       
Total Funds:         $4 345,59
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Mr. Kelly picked up $119 going 5/7. Larry laid a 8.0 runner. He ended down -$13,24 for the day. I had a poor day, losing -$24,57 on 3/6 wins. In total, we wagered $610,39 to make a profit of $81,19. This makes a return of 13,3%, which is a solid result for the day overall. (I would expect around $60 in profit).
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The GreenGiant got kicked around like an old box yesterday...crashing out of 3 straight tournaments without making the cut. (Something Tiger Woods can relate to!) But he crushed 4 straight Heads Up opponents in retaliation later.
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Here's the updated chart. As you can see, not much progress recently. Well, that's the way it goes. With only using half of the bank, it slows progress at the expense of bank security. Always a good long-term trade-off in my opinion (but Mr.Kelly isn't happy about it. He wants to use his whole bank to calculate his stake, but I won't let him. I keep telling him that time is on our side, as the Rolling Stone's song goes...) If your system has a +EV, then your real enemy is short-term impatience, and your friend is long-term patience. And if you look on the chart, Mr.Kelly is only a few bets away from hitting his all-time high and moving higher.
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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 487,08
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 824,55
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $185,30
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 639,23
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$140,51
       
Total Funds:         $4 356,42

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Mr.Kelly went 4/7 yesterday for a slight profit of $1,28. I went a solid 4/6 for a profit of $12,45.
Longshot Larry went 3/3 for a gain of $7,54.
I am not happy with the amount of stake which I am able to slam down each day, this is because I haven't had enough time to do much gambling (fishing season is in full swing...). So, with less money bet, that means less profits. Not much that can be done about it, though. I'll just do as much as I can and be patient.
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Shannon's Demon has been busy buying stocks as the world markets slide into panic mode. BUY BUY BUY!!! he says. Of course, everyone knows that they should buy things when the prices drop, but a big problem for many investors (and fund managers and bankers) is forced selling. They don't want to sell, but they have to to CUT THEIR LOSSES, or pay people their money back. Well, Shannon's Demon never cuts his losses. If the price is low, he will buy it. If it does lower, he will buy more. Normal investors will exhaust their money after awhile of this, because they have no staking plan. What are they going to do it the market drops 50, 70, 80..90%? No idea. The Demon has an exact plan for what to do. He always has more money to pump into a panic-striken market. He loves all this market panic. In true demonic style, he relies on chaos, fear and panic. In fact, he can't live without it. One day, the sun will shine again and the clouds will blow away. The surviving traders and banker will crawl out of the wreckage and carnage and blink in the sunlight and who will be standing there to greet them all? That's right...Shannon's Demon. Indestructible.

The Demon started with a puny 3,31 units of stocks back in April. That has now grown to 10,28 units at last count, and The Demon bought more yesterday. I'll update the Demon after all the smoke clears in the chaos and carnage of the past week.
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The GreenGiant was stomping around the poker tournaments last night. He won a 45-seater and took 3rd in a 9-seater and got blown out of a 9-seater when his pocket Aces cracked early in the action. So, a very good evening overall. I'm going to re-organize his stats because they have got all mixed up, with different tournaments and buy-ins, etc. I'll divide everything by tournament type, size and buy-in and start a fresh sheet tonight.
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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 459,37
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 953,70
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $177,76
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 639,23
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$140,51
       
Total Funds:         $4 450,32
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A rather lame day yesterday for gambling, not much time for anything. I went 2/2 for $28,73 profit. Mr.Kelly was 1/2 for a loss of -$31,66 and Larry hit 2/3 but lost -$9,48. Still, his stats for laying horses  are very good:

Total Bets    Wins    Losses    Points Lost    Total Points Profit    Edge%    Total Stake    Total Profit    Stake Edge%
273    237    36    195,00    42,00    15,38%    $769,87    $72,91    9,47%

You can see that Larry has won 237 out of 273 bets. That's fine, but it is not important. The real secret is how little he has paid out on the 36 losers he has had. He has only paid out 195 points to cover those 36 losers, which leaves 42 points in profit for him. That is why I always say that it is only the price which matters, nothing else.

Now, all Larry needs is a lot of bets and a few big winning streaks to compound his profits.
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In poker, the GreenGiant hit the money  for 2nd place yesterday and missed the cut once.

TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 430,64
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 985,36
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $187,24
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 622,04
initial investment:        $1 779,74
profit:         -$157,70
       
Total Funds:         $4 445,54
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A wobbly weekend for Mr.Kelly... he went 9/15 for a loss of -$228,40. I went 9/13 for a gain of $16,23.
Larry was only around on Friday...he went 3/3 for $7,78 profit.

The Demon is eagerly getting ready to buy more stocks as world markets drop.

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