TheSnapper

Start Bank: $198,00
Current Bank: $392,00

Took a -$5,20 loss on record-breaking stake of $127,04 over 32 bets yesterday. I'm glad to get that much stake on (32% of my bank), even though there was a small loss. The stats show that I'll need to stake 700% of my bank to double it, so this 32% is a good effort. 700/32 = 21, so at that high rate the bank would likely double again in 21 days, beating the previous doubling by a whole 4 days, just due to the higher staking amount (not any increased edge).

The all-important edge currently stands at 11,53% after 592 bets

Target date for buying Florida dream home: Dec.6, 2011
Updated projected date for buying Florida dream home: Oct.23, 2011

There have been several requests to see my bets, so here is a screen shot taken from yesterday when my bank was doubled for the first time. I hope it helps. If you have any questions, I am glad to answer.

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The Florida Home bank has doubled!

Current Bank: $397,20
Start Bank: $198


The first of 10 doublings has been completed. This one took 28 betting days and ran from Dec.30 2010 until yesterday, Jan.25, 2011.(9 days ahead of schedule). The complete stats for this period are:

Total Markets    Total Bets    Total Stake    Profit     Profit % Markets/Day    Stake/Day    Profit/Day

330                560            $1 555,43    $199,20    12,81%  12,22     $57,61            $7,38   

The key stat is the Profit % at 12,81%. This is my edge, as measured over 560 bets. It is also interesting that I turned over (staked) my original bank 7 times to generate a doubling.

My best day was $36,57 profit. My worst day was a -$15,46 loss.

The model predicts the 2nd doubling in 34 days...so March 1 or so and the bank should be around $800.

So, I am celebrating today. Champagne for everyone!
Planned date to buy Florida dream home: Dec.6, 2011
Current projected date to buy Florida dream home: Oct.10,2011

Thanks to everyone for their kind comments and support. I am glad to see all these new followers and I hope I can help and inspire you all to reach your dreams and achieve success on Betfair!

Bank Start: $198.00
Current Bank: $375,56

Solid day yesterday, made $36,57 on rather limited stakes of $42,72.

My bank is now only $20,44 away from the first doubling. It is a key milestone along the road. It is the first of the 10 doublings I will need to reach my goal, and will likely happen within the next 3 days. I'll put up complete stats for the first doubling and open my first of 10 champagne bottles (that's 1 per doubling, not 10 per doubling!).

The compounding effect has already started to show. At the beginning of the month I was making $4,97
per day, but this has now increased steadily up to $6,83 per day. Profits are being used to steadily increase the stakes as the system keeps grinding forward day after day. Dull stuff, but that's the way to go...grinding away relentlessly.

There have been a few questons about losing streaks and how to handle them, so today, I would like to write a few thoughts about how I deal with that.

Losing streaks (or downswings)

There is no free lunch in this game. To win in the end , you have to lose sometimes. The best way to keep your system on track and grind on relentlessly is to follow a few simple rules:

1. Keep stakes low. Gamblers often go on tilt if they are betting big and hit the inevitable losing streak. If you keep your stakes under 5% of your bank and adjust that constantly, you are not exposed to losing your bank.

2. Keep going. If it's winter, it means spring is coming...You will eventually win again and right the boat if your edge is good. Don't do things like overstaking or doubling up to chase losses.Mr. Kelly will take your bank away from you if you insist on doing that!



3. Review your stats and look at your overall picture, see your profits to date and lose your stress over the recent losses. A friend of mine always buys himself a bottle of wine when he breaks his record losing streak, as a consolation prize. (Mathematically, this will become a rarer and rarer event in your betting career if your edge is good. If your edge is bad, you will have the double whammy of being a broke ex-gambler and an alcoholic to boot!)

Start Bank: $198,00
Current Bank: $338,99

Well, my edge has dropped to a more realistic 9,7% after this weekend of racing. My total stats ar now:
Total Staked: $1 448,96
Total Profit: $140,99
Profit %: 9,73%

I am still, however, 2 days ahead of schedule (my model has me at $321 as of Day 25), so I am not disappointed.The model and the long run are all the matter. The model has me moving into my Florida dream house on Dec.6, 311 days to go.

Start Bank: $198,00
Current Bank: $$351,13

Another limited day due to the weather this time. Only 9 bets across 5 markets. Daily stake $32,04, profit $5,62. Still 5 days ahead of schedule. My all-important edge stands at 12,15% based on stakes/profit.

I would like to write something briefly about edge, which is crucial to success.

The Edge
John Kelly wasn't particularly thinking about sports betting when he wrote the Kelly Criterion. He was thinking more about phone transmissions across networks...but it was quickly realized that his work could also be applied to fixed mathematical odds...things like card games or games of chance in which the odds could be calculated with mathematical precision.

Since we can't be sure in sports betting of the actual chances, all we can rely on is the historical record of our bets.  For this reason, we also need consistency in what we are trying to measure. I will keep things very simple by using only 1 market (the horseracing place market), and use the same criterion for making bets over and over and over. Then, after a large number of bets (at least 1,000) we would begin to be able to say with growing confidence what the edge actually is.

Once we have some confidence in our edge, we can then begin to consider our stake according to the Kelly Criterion and decide on a percentage of the bank to employ. This is the next step in building a bank through compounding, which is the key to serious profits in betting.

Start Bank: $198,00
Current Bank: $345,51

Short post today. Down -$10,97 yesterday. Overall, the bank has increased 74,5% this month, so all is well, and I calculate I am still about 6 days ahead of schedule, but there are still 314 days to go!

Start Bank: $198,00
Current Bank: $$356,48
Target Date for buying dream home: Dec.6, 2011
Projected Date for buying dream home: Oct.23, 2011

Due to the Betfair site problems, there were only 13 bets in 6 markets. This highlights 2 issues that we should all be aware of.

1. This is why I had to give up trading on Betfair. I used to trade the horses pre-race and I often did quite well compounding small banks into larger banks. But  there were at least 3 occasions when the server crashed, my computer crashed, or another time when I made a mistake and left a position open...and bang...bank wiped out. Despite what anyone tells you..trading is never 'risk-free'. I'm sure many traders discovered that yesterday! As a straight position taker now, I am not exposed to such situations.

2. The problem for me with the Betfair problems is that it limits how much I can bet everyday. I need to keep up a 20% daily stake/bank ratio in my model and this is going to be hard if I can only play 6 markets and 13 bets, like yesterday. A gambler has only two options to increase profits once he has an edge: either increase the stake level up to the Kelly limit or increase the number of bets.

Anyway, despite the problems it was an unusually profitable day. I made $23,84 on a stake of $45,11, which is a near-personal record 52,85% profit on the day!

The profit % has risen and currently stands at 13,74%. This is my calculation of my current edge over the market, based on profit/stake.

I'm pleased to see the new followers, I wonder how many there will be by the end of this blog! I thank you all for following and welcome your comments.

Start Bank: $198,00
Current bank: $332,64

Took a few hits yesterday and lost -$14,36 on a stake of $89,96
The edge is currently running at 12,15%

So far, 5 losing days out of 20. I'm about 5 days or so ahead of schedule. 316 more days to go!

Start Bank: $198,00
Current bank: $347,00

Target Date for buying dream home: Dec.6, 2011
Projected Date for buying dream home: Oct.1, 2011

I only made 9 bets yesterday in 7 markets. I staked $30,06 and the profit was $12,23.

I running very hot right now. My edge after 409 bets is a massive 14,63%. After whipping out my handy Kelly calculator, I see that Mr Kelly is calling for me to use $95.07 as a stake for 2.0 odds bets! I can feel my hair falling out already! That would be 27.4% of my bank...so you can see that Mr Kelly is not for faint-of-heart gamblers. However, I use this a maximum guide, not a minimum!

Seriously, though, I doubt the edge is actually 14%...it is just a hot streak. The edge should settle down during the spring and summer at some level under 10%.

Glad to welcome all these new followers. I hope you can benefit from my blog and it inspires you, if nothing else! By the way, my target date for my dream house should be Dec.6, not Nov.6. I had to change that.

There have been some questions about methods, particularly which markets I am using. So, I will say a few words today on that subject.

I place bets in the horseracing place markets. I back or lay horses before the off or slightly after. I could try and post some screenshots if anyone is interested. It is very simple, I look for good prices, not good horses!