Current bank: $426,25
Mr. Kelly's Bank: $18,55
A few incorrect tries at the greatest investor quiz. Not George Soros or Steven Cohen.
Another hint: He was an American. Not currently living. (OK, that's three hints.)
Anyway, I got pounded yesterday to the tune of -$46,43. Feb was poor overall, a net loss of -$41,97. January was a very good month, however, so I must conclude that the changes I started in February have not brought the desired result. So, it's time to re-think my strategy of laying only.
Mr. Kelly also has been having a poor time, although he is never in any danger of getting wiped out. He hasn't ignitied in a logorithmic frenzy yet, however, either.
So, a poor month, but March is here. Onward and upward...
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The Perfect Soccer Betting System
down slightly yesterday and a hint
01 Mar 11 10:18
Current bank:$472,68
Mr.Kelly's Bank: $20,95
The day ended up slightly negative, the bank went down slightly by -$1,26. Mr.Kelly was also back in action, and after a good start to over $26, he fell back to close at $20,95.
I'm letting the bets run into the in-play market and it has improved the profits, although I ran through some stats and found that all price ranges are in profit except for the horses priced 2.0-3.0, which are running at a 2% loss. So, I will adjust the prices of those and check again in a week or two.
I just wanted to say that this is an example of how you should always be checking your stats, never assume something is working right...check it out. Do the math. Make the changes.
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OK. Here's a hint for everyone regarding the greatest investor of all time.
The initials are C.S.
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Mr.Kelly's Bank: $20,95
The day ended up slightly negative, the bank went down slightly by -$1,26. Mr.Kelly was also back in action, and after a good start to over $26, he fell back to close at $20,95.
I'm letting the bets run into the in-play market and it has improved the profits, although I ran through some stats and found that all price ranges are in profit except for the horses priced 2.0-3.0, which are running at a 2% loss. So, I will adjust the prices of those and check again in a week or two.
I just wanted to say that this is an example of how you should always be checking your stats, never assume something is working right...check it out. Do the math. Make the changes.
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OK. Here's a hint for everyone regarding the greatest investor of all time.
The initials are C.S.
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No Comments
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447 views
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A week or two either way won't bother me
28 Feb 11 06:58
Current bank: $473,94
Dropped about $14 yesterday. Mr. Kelly will be back in action today with a new spread sheet ready to go...he's a had a few days off. I am about 7 days behind the model, which had the bank nearly to $600 by this date. Not to worry...a week or two either way won't bother me at the end of the race to Florida.
Hmmmn...nobody has got the right answer yet to the question about the greatest investor of all time. I'll give you a hint tomorrow if nobody gets it.
Dropped about $14 yesterday. Mr. Kelly will be back in action today with a new spread sheet ready to go...he's a had a few days off. I am about 7 days behind the model, which had the bank nearly to $600 by this date. Not to worry...a week or two either way won't bother me at the end of the race to Florida.
Hmmmn...nobody has got the right answer yet to the question about the greatest investor of all time. I'll give you a hint tomorrow if nobody gets it.
No Comments
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209 views
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Current Bank: $487,44
Big day yesterday laying bad horses at bad prices: a record profit of $70,75, bringing the bank up to $487,44. Still a few more days to go to get back ahead of schedule, but still, its going the right way.
Today, I have a question: Who is the best long-term investor in history? (Percentage return per year for entire investing career). Here's a shock for you...It's NOT Warren Buffet. I'll be impessed if anyone can name this person. I'll be impressed if anyone has ever HEARD of this person. (it's also not John Kelly). Any guesses?
Big day yesterday laying bad horses at bad prices: a record profit of $70,75, bringing the bank up to $487,44. Still a few more days to go to get back ahead of schedule, but still, its going the right way.
Today, I have a question: Who is the best long-term investor in history? (Percentage return per year for entire investing career). Here's a shock for you...It's NOT Warren Buffet. I'll be impessed if anyone can name this person. I'll be impressed if anyone has ever HEARD of this person. (it's also not John Kelly). Any guesses?
No Comments
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215 views
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Back in the winning groove
25 Feb 11 09:48
Current bank: $416,69
Mr. Kelly's Bank: $20,63
The bank added $24,61 yesterday on 25 bets across 18 horseracing markets. All lays at bad prices in horseracing markets.
It's not going to be easy...just ask Mr. Kelly. $0,63 in profit after 74 bets! I never said this would be easy, it's going to be a hard up and down slog...dealing with the vagaries of lady luck day-in-and-day-out...but the key is to have MORE bets, not MORE stake, simply because this spreads the good and bad luck across more bets. So, it is working better this way than by "concentrating" fewer bets on fewer runners. I will keep on ratcheting up profits and compounding as I go, and we will see how far I can get by the end of the year!
There will still be losing days, even weeks, but hopefully fewer of them. The stats since 19.02 since I made a few changes to "spread the edge" around have been:
Bets: 161
Liability Laid: $747,20
Profit: $62,06
Layers Edge: 8%
So, I don't think it could be better than that!
Mr. Kelly's Bank: $20,63
The bank added $24,61 yesterday on 25 bets across 18 horseracing markets. All lays at bad prices in horseracing markets.
It's not going to be easy...just ask Mr. Kelly. $0,63 in profit after 74 bets! I never said this would be easy, it's going to be a hard up and down slog...dealing with the vagaries of lady luck day-in-and-day-out...but the key is to have MORE bets, not MORE stake, simply because this spreads the good and bad luck across more bets. So, it is working better this way than by "concentrating" fewer bets on fewer runners. I will keep on ratcheting up profits and compounding as I go, and we will see how far I can get by the end of the year!
There will still be losing days, even weeks, but hopefully fewer of them. The stats since 19.02 since I made a few changes to "spread the edge" around have been:
Bets: 161
Liability Laid: $747,20
Profit: $62,06
Layers Edge: 8%
So, I don't think it could be better than that!
No Comments
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205 views
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laying the horses in the place market at bad prices
24 Feb 11 10:57
Current bank:$392,08
Picked up a profit of $17,35 yesterday, laying the horses in the place market at bad prices. I have been thinking about adding my football and tennis trading to this bank to "pump up" the results a bit more...I mean, I have an awfully long way yet to go to get to Florida and I need to include as many Betfair activities as possible to do it.
I also have to find the time to get Mr. Kelly up and running again. Sorry about that...he is paused for the time being.
Picked up a profit of $17,35 yesterday, laying the horses in the place market at bad prices. I have been thinking about adding my football and tennis trading to this bank to "pump up" the results a bit more...I mean, I have an awfully long way yet to go to get to Florida and I need to include as many Betfair activities as possible to do it.
I also have to find the time to get Mr. Kelly up and running again. Sorry about that...he is paused for the time being.
No Comments
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226 views
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No Comments
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178 views
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A few days to make up
22 Feb 11 09:14
Current Bank:$388,42
Mr.Kelly's Bank: $19,40
Stats since 21.02:
Liability: $306,97
Profit: $33,79
Edge: 11%
No complaints about the past few days! Now, I need to ramp it up a bit. I have a few days to make up, I'm a few days behind schedule, but I hope to catch up this week.
Mr.Kelly's Bank: $19,40
Stats since 21.02:
Liability: $306,97
Profit: $33,79
Edge: 11%
No complaints about the past few days! Now, I need to ramp it up a bit. I have a few days to make up, I'm a few days behind schedule, but I hope to catch up this week.
No Comments
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189 views
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Watson
21 Feb 11 07:14
Current Bank: $382,03
Mr.Kelly's Bank: $22,79
I spent the past few days checking data trying to figure out why Feb. has been so low on profits, and I think I have now fixed the problem. The problem was that I had dropped the number of bets, and increased the stakes. This created more volatility and exposed me more to a losing period.
The solution to reducing volatility is to 1) increase the number of bets and 2)reduce the individual stake size per bet.
I did that this weekend with good results.
The stats since 20.02 are as follows:
Liability: $203,94
Profit: $27,40
Profit%: 13,4%
So, I am plesed to have that turned around in the right direction again. It goes to show that small mistakes in staking have a serious impact on profits in the long-term.
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Mr. Kelly is also smiling again. He is back into profit over the weekend and is now up to $22,79. He has been over $50 and under $15 in volatility. I have been getting the chart ready and should have it updated this week.
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An IBM computer program "Watson" recently defeated two champion-level humans at the quiz show Jeopardy. That's a hell of an achievement, considering the match was played like a regular match. Watson had to understand the spoken question, come up with an answer and even, physically, hit the buzzer with a "hand" and then use sythesized speech to say the answer out loud, just like the humans. Quite an advance in artificial intelligence. Well-done, IBM!
But probably, I suspect, the real, hidden, deeper cause of it's victory was not only its vast reams of data, but its betting prowess. Knowing how much to wager, depending on how certain it was of its answer. I am sure that Watson used the Kelly Criterion to maximize its profits far better than the humans did.
During the Double Jeopardy! Round, Watson displayed a few Jeopardy! affectations for which its human players are known, such as requesting a new dollar amount in the "same category" and stating "I'll take a guess" before giving a Daily Double response in which it had a low confidence. It also demonstrated complex wagering strategies on the Daily Doubles, with one bet at $6,435 and another at $1,246. Gerald Tesauro, one of the IBM researchers who worked on Watson, later discussed Watson's wagering algorithms in a weblog post.[34]
Mr.Kelly's Bank: $22,79
I spent the past few days checking data trying to figure out why Feb. has been so low on profits, and I think I have now fixed the problem. The problem was that I had dropped the number of bets, and increased the stakes. This created more volatility and exposed me more to a losing period.
The solution to reducing volatility is to 1) increase the number of bets and 2)reduce the individual stake size per bet.
I did that this weekend with good results.
The stats since 20.02 are as follows:
Liability: $203,94
Profit: $27,40
Profit%: 13,4%
So, I am plesed to have that turned around in the right direction again. It goes to show that small mistakes in staking have a serious impact on profits in the long-term.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mr. Kelly is also smiling again. He is back into profit over the weekend and is now up to $22,79. He has been over $50 and under $15 in volatility. I have been getting the chart ready and should have it updated this week.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An IBM computer program "Watson" recently defeated two champion-level humans at the quiz show Jeopardy. That's a hell of an achievement, considering the match was played like a regular match. Watson had to understand the spoken question, come up with an answer and even, physically, hit the buzzer with a "hand" and then use sythesized speech to say the answer out loud, just like the humans. Quite an advance in artificial intelligence. Well-done, IBM!
But probably, I suspect, the real, hidden, deeper cause of it's victory was not only its vast reams of data, but its betting prowess. Knowing how much to wager, depending on how certain it was of its answer. I am sure that Watson used the Kelly Criterion to maximize its profits far better than the humans did.
During the Double Jeopardy! Round, Watson displayed a few Jeopardy! affectations for which its human players are known, such as requesting a new dollar amount in the "same category" and stating "I'll take a guess" before giving a Daily Double response in which it had a low confidence. It also demonstrated complex wagering strategies on the Daily Doubles, with one bet at $6,435 and another at $1,246. Gerald Tesauro, one of the IBM researchers who worked on Watson, later discussed Watson's wagering algorithms in a weblog post.[34]
No Comments
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216 views
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Relentless
18 Feb 11 12:38
Current bank: $354,68
Mr.Kelly's Bank: $18,61
Ouch! Another loss yesterday. The problem is with this volatility, win win win lose lose lose . I am thinking of ways to get this better on track, and I've got a few ideas I will try out. It's a bit frustrating, because, after all, I am only trying to make about $15 per day and it shouldn't really be this hard to do. Time to turn it around! That house in Florida won't wait!
Bearing in mind the words of Warren Buffet..."the three most important things are not losing money, not losing money and not losing money."
Must keep that in mind today!
Mr. Kelly, of course, is not concerned at all about this recent losing streak. Relentless, he is...
Mr.Kelly's Bank: $18,61
Ouch! Another loss yesterday. The problem is with this volatility, win win win lose lose lose . I am thinking of ways to get this better on track, and I've got a few ideas I will try out. It's a bit frustrating, because, after all, I am only trying to make about $15 per day and it shouldn't really be this hard to do. Time to turn it around! That house in Florida won't wait!
Bearing in mind the words of Warren Buffet..."the three most important things are not losing money, not losing money and not losing money."
Must keep that in mind today!
Mr. Kelly, of course, is not concerned at all about this recent losing streak. Relentless, he is...
No Comments
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281 views
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