TheSnapper

Current Bank: $806,56 (+307%)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $67,22(+236%)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Just a quick update on the betting over the past 2 days. I slumped a bit -3%, but Mr. Kelly went on a rampage, +81%, over 29 bets, including a 10 win streak, pushing his bank to an all-time high of $67,22.

Remember, I am using half of my bank at half-Kelly stakes, and Mr.Kelly is using full-bank, full-Kelly stakes. I hope that you can follow this blog to the end and see who is going to win. I am pretty sure it won't be me, judging by the way Mr.Kelly has been going lately!

Current Bank: $832,13 (+320%)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $44,28 (+121%)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

The bank increased 7,5% yesterday, but the big news was Mr.Kelly's 22% bank increase. I laid only 7 runners yesterday, although there were around 4-5 races with no good selections -- showing you how tight the markets were yesterday. Why? Who knows...probably just no particularly fancied runners in most of the races. Sorry, I can't tell you anything at all about the races or the horses. If you are looking for someone to predict the future, you have come to the wrong blog! But, if you are serious about your gambling and investing, then you have come to the right place!

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Just an update if you have just tuned in. I am betting on horses in the place markets with the eventual goal to build up a large enough bank to buy a home in Florida. I am using half-bank, half-kelly staking (using between 2,5%-9,5% of half of my bank on each bet). Mr. Kelly is using the full-Kelly stake to also lay a horse in the same event, his stakes range from 4-18% of his much smaller bank.

The results are posted above. The results speak for themselves. Although I am ahead of Mr. Kelly at the moment, he started later than I did, with a much smaller bank. I fully expect him to be much farther ahead by the end of the year. I am using a small edge to continuously compound my bank. I hope my followers can learn from my blog just how powerful a tool Kellly Staking is for gamblers, and also how to use compounding tools like Shannon's Demon in other investments outside of sports betting, such as the stock market and forex.

I hope to have a great big pool party in Florida at the end!

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Current Bank: $773,74(+288%)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $31,47 (+39%)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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I only managed 3 bets yesterday...winning 2/3 for a small $5 profit.

There have been some requests from followers who would like to use Kelly staking. The math involved in calculating half-Kelly odds for lay betting can be confusing, so to make things simple, here is a chart I use which is "close enough" to the correct half-Kelly stake.

This is for lay bets, assuming a 5% edge, and these are half of the optimal Kelly Stake (full Kelly stake would be x2 the stakes I have listed)

      Odds Range  Percentage of bank to risk (Maximum liability)
        1.01-1.10 1,0%
    1.11-1,25 2,0%
    1.26-1,5  3,0%
    1,51-1,76 4,0%
    1,76-2,00 5,0%
    2,01-2,20 5,5%
    2,21-2,5  6,0%
    2,51-2,74 6,5%
    2,75-3,00 7,0%
    3,01-3,50 8,0%
    3,51-4,00 9,5%


These are my stakes are for laying runners in the place markets. I avoid runners under 4,00 in the WIN, and over 15,0 in the WIN market.
These stakes represent the maximum liability I will accept laying a bet against the horse.

Remember, the Kelly staking system requires you to recalculate the stake after each bet. It is a percentage of your total betting bank that you will risk on each bet, therefore your stake increases after a win, and decreases after a loss.

Also, you must have an edge to benefit from Kelly Staking. If you have no edge, or worse, a negative edge, you will just lose your bank faster than before. I assume you have at least a 5% advantage. You should verify this over many bets.

The Kelly system will maximize your profits on a hot streak, and protect your bank from ruin on the (inevitable) losing streak. It is not a get rich quick scheme. It is a long, drawn-out, up-and-down, patience-testing and heart-breaking process, with no guarantee of success offered. Just a good chance of good rewards someday down the road.(Hopefully in Florida!)

Feel free to use it! Good luck to you all.  I'd be glad to hear how you make out!

Current Bank: $768,88 (+287%)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $31,47 (+57%)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

The bank came back strongly yesterday with a profit of $87,20 (+12,7%), the stats for my half-bank half-Kelly stakes are currently as follows:

Bets: 168 (since 08.03.2011)
Total Stake: $2293,18
Total Profit: $315,09
Edge: 13,70%

Wins: 114
Losses: 54
Strike rate: 67,8%
Level stakes points in profit: +34,11 if using level stakes (20,3% edge)

Level Stakes profit ($2 level stakes) = $68,22 (hypothtical profits if I had used level stakes)
Half-Kelly Stakes Profit: $315,09 ( my actual profit for these bets)
Full-Kelly Stakes Profit: $630,18 (hypothetical profits using full-Kelly stakes)

So, ladies and gentlemen, here are the stats showing you the advantages of correct staking. Over the past 168 bets I have been using half-Kelly stakes. My profits are around 5 times greater than if I had used level stakes (using a fixed stake of 2% of the same half-bank Kelly stakes).

My worst loss was 21% from my highest profit, (and man did that hurt!)

So, if you are a straight gambler (I mean, just making a single, one-way bet on an event), and you aren't trading or making a book or anything funny...then this is what you should be doing. Kelly staking.
Nothing better for your bank.

Just a reminder: Kelly Stake = edge/odds  (Please note! If your edge is negative, you don't bet!!!)

Simple. Now, go out and make some money!

Current Bank: $697,51
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $43,99
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

We both got smashed pretty good yesterday! My bank dropped 21% and Mr. Kelly lost 20%. Too bad, ups and downs, eh?

Pretty grim day --- I lost 7/9 bets, including a horrific 6 in a row! Well, it was going to happen sometime, and now it has.

To my dismay, I also realised that my stakes had been steadily drifting upwards from half-bank, half-kelly stakes to nearly  full-bank half-kelly stakes. Overstaking, simply, the worst sin a Kelly gambler can make!

I calculated that that error cost me an additional 25% of the days losses, basically making a bad day even worse! Ouch!

So, I have adjusted the stakes and picked myself and Mr. Kelly up and we shall soldier on!

Still, I can't complain about setbacks, they are going to occur quite often and on a regular, irritating basis. Even if you have good bets, at good odds, using a good staking system, you can still get smashed hard. The point is to focus on the long run and protecting your bank. That's what separates the pros from the amateurs, my friends.

Current Bank: $890,11
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $55,17
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

The winning streak continued yesterday, with only 3 bets I racked up $73,13. Mr. Kelly went on a rampage, winning his last 8 straight bets and doubling his bank.

I have changed Mr.Kelly from backs to lays. He's laying runners within the same range as me, but earlier and with full-Kelly stakes. He's won $29,21 in the past 2 days! Look out!

The bets I made yesterday and the bookies odds I noted are as follows:

Runner            Stake    Odds    Liability    Result    Bookies PRice
The Chazer    $31,06    1,7    $21,74            $31,06    1,73
Doncaster Rover$20,43    3,25    $45,97            $20,43    3,50
Bobowen    $21,64    3,2    $47,61            $21,64    4,00


I'm getting pressed fo time. so I won't be going into much more detail about my betting. If you have any questions or comments, please send a message and I'll try and get back to you. Good luck to all!

Current Bank: $816,98
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $35,42
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Hit three straight winners today, for a total of $65,58:

Runner            Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Art Dzeko    $19,42    2,6    $31,07    $19,42
Turbo Shandy    $20,72    2,56    $32,32    $20,72
Kowloon            $25,44    2,12    $28,49    $25,44

That's enough for the second doubling! So, I'm taking the rest of the night off to go and get drunk! Cheers to you all! Thanks to all my followers, I hope you have been doing well. It's been a great month! Everyone in the pool!!!

Now on the third doubling!!!

Current Bank: $751,40
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $25,96
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

I managed only 2 bets yesterday, and there were several tight markets, so not much to report. 2/2 wins and a $40,78 increase for the bank.

Mr. Kelly was 1/1 and went up $1,26

The March stats are in:
Bets: 297
Stake: $2,156,23
Profit: $278,72
edge: 12,9%




The difference between March and February is significant. In March, I changed to using half-Kelly stakes using half of my bank, and adjusting the stake after each bet. The result was a compounding effect which has pushed my bank to its current high, and only $42 now from the second doubling! I am hopeful that I can achieve the doubling this weekend, but you never know.

I'm also thinking what to do to help Mr.Kelly a bit. He has been creamed by a bad series of short-priced losers after hitting his first doubling. He has also had very few bets. I may change his role to laying steaming outsiders (where there is better edge available than backing short-priced place favourites, as he is doing now).

Current Bank: $710,62
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $24,70
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

My bank increased $31,29 yesterday with 3/4 wins (+4,6%). Mr. Kelly lost 1/2 races again and dropped $1,41.

I have only been managing to get in a few bets each day due to both lack of time and a lack of good opportunities, there were 4 races yesterday with no big price moves, so the prices were rather in line, hence, nothing for me.

Since I moved to half-kelly stakes using half of my bank, the stats have been good:

Runners Laid: 130 (1 per race)
Staked $1496,73
Profit: $224,71
Edge: 15% (although edge on liability is around 6%)

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Understanding the Kelly Criterion, part 3

So, how much should we bet? Well, it all depends on your edge. Let me give an example.

Let's imagine that we are flipping coins. I have  trick coin that lands on heads 5% more than on tails. After 100 flips, we can expect to have 55 heads and 45 tails. That's 10 more heads than tails at odds on 1-1 (or 2.0 in digital odds).The Kelly Criterion is simple: bet your edge/the odds. In our case, we should use 10% stakes (10 more heads than tails divided by the 1-1 odds). If we then proceed and do thousands and thousands of coin flips, we will end up with more profit than any other stake we use.

Also notice that if you use the Kelly Criterion, you will use large stakes with favourites and low stakes with outsiders. It basically wants you to bet more when you have a high probability of winning and bet less when you have low chances of winning.

For layers, this means the reverse. Bet less against likely winners and bet more against outsiders. Notice that this also matches the statistics I posted on the bookies edge on runners over 4.0 ...your edge is higher against outsiders as a layer, so this makes sense. In the long run you will be better off laying outsiders than favourites.