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The Perfect Soccer Betting System
Current Bank: $1199,10 (+505,61% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $191,91 (+859,55% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00


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Well, my May weekend results have been pretty bad...of course not as bad as Osama bin Laden's! I got pounded, losing 5/8 races for a loss of -$164,81. Ouch!

The real story has been the explosive Mr. Kelly. He hit an all-time high of $191,91 after winning 10/13 for gain of $50,22. His bank has increased a staggering +859,55% since it started.

So, I'm down, Mr.Kelly is up and Mr.Bin Laden is out.
That's all you need to know.
Well done, SEALS!
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Current Bank: $1363,91 (+588,84% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $141,69 (+608,45% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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Not much time yesterday for any Betfairing...just 1 bet for me (a win for $27,83) and 4 straight wins for Mr.kelly ($35,36).
In terms of profit, Mr.Kelly and his full-bank , full-Kelly stakes have passed me and now stand at 608,45% profit over 207 bets. (Don't try that at home by yourself, kids!). He is fearless and aggressive in his staking.

I am at another all-time high, and have pressed within $250 of my next big milestone, $1600, which represents the THIRD DOUBLING of my original bank ($200 - $400 - $800 - $1600). That'll be the third bottle of champagne on my way to Florida!

Meanwile, I withdrew $12 and sent it to my crack (-smoking)investment advisors in Holland. They are now in charge of my reserve bank, which has grown to $682,47.


Keep up the good work, boys!

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quick update

30 Apr 11 16:20
Current Bank: $1336,08 (+574,79% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $106,33(+431,65% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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For me , a profit of $37,99 on 4 runners yesterday, and a new all-time high:

Runner    Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Adaria    $34,33    2,04    $35,70    -$35,70
Speed Steed    $16,65    2,02    $16,98    $16,65
Farbreaga    $35,14    1,91    $31,98    $35,14
Independent Girl    $21,90    3,4    52,56    $21,90

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Current Bank: $1298,09 (+555,60% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $106,63(+433,15% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00


I withdrew $24,27 from Betfair today and sent it to Holland to my crack investment crew to invest for me. I was talking to the manager of the investment fund and he was telling me all about his brand new, high tech tools for picking winning stocks....Here's a picture of him employing this cutting-edge technology...I don't know, I'm a bit skeptical of such claims...but to tell you the truth, I don't give a rat's-ass how he pick stocks as long as he generates a lot of volatility.


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Florida Dream House Funds:

TheSnapper (betting using half of current bank): $649,05
Mr.Kelly: $106,63
The Demon (reserve bank): $670,55

Total: $1426,23

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So, now at the end of April, after 107 betting days and around 4 months of betting, it is time to assess the progress towards the Florida Dream House.

When all funds are put together, the total has grown from $198 to $1426, an increase of 620% in 4 months.If I can keep up this pace and continue compounding the profits and investments for another 8 months, that should produce a bank large enough to buy the Florida dream house. So, things are looking good.

Thanks for all the comments and encouragement. I am glad to hear that this blog has inspired and helped
others to improve their gambling and investing and take a long-term approach to both - finding an edge and staking efficiently.

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I have been asked about trading and I'll tell you now how I turned $40 into $4,000 in about 9 months. It was very simple. I just backed or layed the favourite. I set a tight stop loss (5-10 ticks) and waited. Befor the off I would green up any winners. I lost about 66% of the time, but the 33% of the time I won paid that off and made a profit, especially with the inevitable big mover. I then reset my stakes  and repeated the process for the next race. There were several long losing streaks, but I would always hit new highs after a week or so.

One warning though, I gave it up because of Betfair crashing, my computer crashing and the power went off once. I also made a mistake once (betting a race in-running, I thought was pre-race) etc... So, it is not as risk-free as some would have you believe. Yet, it can be done if you are persistent and patient. (I doubt if it is as efficient as what I am doing now). It took a lot of time and nerves, I warn you it is a stressful way to make a buck!


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Goed gedaan, jongens!

28 Apr 11 11:21
Current Bank: $1239,05 (+525,78% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $87,32(+336,60% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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We both took a small loss. I lost $10,50 and Mr. Kelly dropped -$16,70. We only had time to place 10 bets, and 7 of them were losses, unfortunately.

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My wild and crazy investment team running the reserve bank has racked up a profit of $23,73 this week. Here is a photo of my team of top-flight investment professionals, hard at work making me some money using their advanced knowledge of investment strategy and risk-management.



Well-done, lads! Keep up the good work!...love the hats! (Or as they say is Holland, "Goed gedaan, jongens! Hard blijven werken! Ik hou van de hoeden!:)

(Note: These pumpkin-heads have already made more money for me than leaving the money in Betfair.)
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The demon is growing

27 Apr 11 15:22
Current Bank: $1249,55 (+531,09% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $104,02(+420,10% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00


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Yesterday I had 4/6 wins for a profit of $29,98 and a new all-time high.

Runner            Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Eagle Nebula    $36,30    1,84    $30,49    -$30,49
Pearl Blue    $21,99    2,64    $36,06    -$36,06
Not So Bright    $30,75    1,75    $23,06    $30,75
Chaperoned    $21,81    2,9    $41,44    $21,81
Wester Ross    $24,49    2,6    $39,18    $24,49
Glaced Over    $19,48    4    $58,44    $19,48
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The demon is growing

In other news, I withdrew another $60,77 from Betfair to send to my reserve investment bank. Rather than keep my money stagnating in Betfair's account at the Royal Bank(rupt) of Scotland. That $60,77 is half of my bank ($1249,55/2 = $624,77) minus what I already have withdrawn to the Demon ($564,00) = $60,77.

In the first week of its hellish existence, the 'Demon' has produced $12,55 profit, although I haven't done any rebalancing yet because the accounts are so small.

Shannon's Demon (Reserve Bank): $637,32
Shannon's Demon Profits (Reserve bank - deposits):+$12,55

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Current Bank: $1219,57 (+515,94% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $91,03(+355,15% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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I was asked a few days ago if I am a professional gambler. Actually, I was pondering that thought out on the boat yesterday and I don't think I am, or ever will be. This is despite all the money I have for living, a large amount of it anyway, coming directly from either gambling or investing, mostly investing.

In a way, everyone is a gambler in the sense that you have a pension, which is basically a series of ongoing bets that the government will be able to pay you your money back as a pension at some point in the future. It is this "in the future" part that makes you a gambler because the money has to come from somewhere, and this must incur risk to you in some way. Yet, somehow it doesn't feel much like gambling, does it?

Anyway, the answer is probably that I am not a professional gambler and my gambling will never be on the same scale as being a professional investor, and it would never be my only source of income. I don't think I'd want that, anyway...That's why I just set a target like a house in Florida, and that's enough. Then maybe start over with another target. Like a new fishing boat or something.

Glad to hear any thoughts on that.

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Speaking of professional investors, my Dutch investment pros running my reserve bank racked up a profit of $8,28 last week.

Reserve Bank Start value: $564,00
    Units    Value USD
       
Stocks    3,307768    $285,99
Bonds    3,062763    $286,29
       
Cuurent Value:        $572,28

So, that's $8,28 which I could add to the bank. But I think  I will just wait and update the reserve bank each Friday, just to update the stats and keep an eye on those Dutchmen playing with my money. Always better to let those losers play with it than leave in Betfair's bank account, I say!

Adding up my bank, the Dutchmen and Mr. Kelly, the total is now well over $1300, and climbing!
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Easter update

25 Apr 11 18:58
Current Bank: $1219,57 (+515,94% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $91,03(+355,15% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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Only managed 2 bets over the Easter weekend. Won both. The winner today was:

Runner                    Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Not Before Eight    $21,89    3,6    $56,89            $21,89

Please don't think I spent much time reading the form of this race. I sat down, saw the crappy price, checked my stake and then laid it. I firmly believe in this philosphy...price is everything. Nothing else matters.
The results speak for themselves. Another all-time high for my bank.
I should be back to regular action and a full update tomorrow.
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I'm also glad to hear that a few followers have started to set up their own Shannon's Demon-type investment plans. That's great --- I believe gambling and investing are just aspects of the same thing -- risk management.
John Kelly said once that the only difference between gambling and investing was a minus-sign in front of the expected return.
How true!
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Bank hits 500% in profit

24 Apr 11 10:22
Current Bank: $1197,68 (+ 504,89% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $85,04(+ 325,20% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,0
0
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Just one bet for me, a winner for $18,67 pushes my bank to an new all-time high and breaks the 500% profit barrier. The total profit is now at $999,68, just a few cents short of cracking the first $1,000 needed for the Florida dream house.

This is not including Mr. Kelly or my flying Dutchmen carefully managing my reserve profits.

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Stats to date for half-bank, half-Kelly Stake betting:

Bets: 217
Stake $3667,87
Profit: $629,50
Edge: 17,1%

Wins: 148
Losses: 69
Strike rate: 68,2%

Profit at level stakes of $1: +$48,72
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Ladies and Gentlemen, the advantages of Kelly Staking are quite clear. If you don't use it, you are costing yourself serious pofits.
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quick update

22 Apr 11 12:23
Current Bank: $1179,01 (+ 495,46% profit)
Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $108,19(+ 440,95 % profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

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My crazed Dutchmen working on my reserve bank have also hit some profit yesterday, although it is only a few bucks.I'll just update and rebalance that every week or so. I won't include that in my Current Bank total.

Yesterday Mr. Kelly and I went undefeated, 3 wins each. I hit another all-time high of $1179,01. My stakes are now based on a total of $589,51 (half of my bank). This is my active betting bank using Kellly Stakes, The other half has been invested with my Dutch friends. I hope to see it again some day.

If I make some profit this week, I will send half of the profits to Amsterdam and keep half inthe betting bank.


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