TheSnapper

TheSnapper's Bank: $3,223.20 (+ $1,611.60% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $$2 023,56 (+ 10,017.80% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1 436,96 ($1,390.50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $46.46

Combined total for house in Florida:$5,293.22

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$198...$396...$792...$1584...$3168...that's the fourth doubling of my bank since I started this blog a bit under 6 months ago! The next target is $6336.( Followed by $12672...$25344...$50688...$101376...$202752. Just five more to go!)

So, Mr. Kelly and I have been out drinking the four bottles of champagne and blasting bottles with the .357 magnum again.

Yesterday I went 4/4 for $343.58. Mr. Kelly was 3/4 for $72.77. Because it is another all-time high for me, I withdrew $220 to the reserve bank for investment. (It is the first withdrawal from my account which is larger than the orignal betting bank of $198).

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TheSnapper's stats (08.03-16.06.2011):
Bets: 497
WIns: 342
Losses: 155
Win %: 68.8
Profit at level stakes: +105.78 units
Profit%: 21.2%
Total Stake: $12,696.59
Profit: $2,567.97
Profit%: 20.2%

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TheSnapper's Bank: $2,880.24 (+ 1,354.67% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $1,950.79 (+ 9,653.95% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1,435.36 ($1,390.50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $46,75

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TheSnapper's Bank: $2,870.35(+ 1,349.98% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2,102.96 (+ 10,414.80% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1,407.00 ($1,362.50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $44,50
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Another day with out much chamce to make many bets. I went 2/2 for a profit of $142.28, pushing my bank up to another all-time high. June has been a good month so far for me with 12/13 winning days and a profit of $1353.82, nearly double my bank. The new high means a withdrawal from Betfair of $28 to the investment reserves.

Mr. Kelly got dinged for a loss of -$233,34, going 1/2 for the day. June hasn't been so good for him, he's down about 20% overall for the month.

So, I have built up about a $700 lead over my friend, but Mr. Kelly has a very explosive nature and can very quickly double his bank, much faster than I can,and if you look at it in percentage terms you can see that the full-Kelly stake has generated about 9 times more profit than the half-stake. The downside, as you can see this month, is that the full-Kelly stake involves more volatility (i.e. up and down) than the half-stake. However, it is just a question of time until Mr.Kelly recovers and storms ahead again in the race.

TheSnapper's Bank: $2,728.69(+ 1,278.13% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2,336.30 (+ 11,581.50% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1,407.00 ($1,362.50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $44,50
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Not much time for betting yesterday. I went 1/2 for $4.42 profit for a slightly new all-time high and Mr. Kelly went 2/2 for $189.24 .

Mr. Kelly's lays yesterday were:

Runner            Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Final Flyer    $137,18    1,78    $107,00    $137,18
Kleitomachos    $52,06    3,2    $114,53    $52,06

(partial match on Kleitomachos, only about half of the stake was taken).
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So, after 150 days of betting and investing, Mr.Kelly, myself and the Demon have a combined total of $5109.49. We have poked over the $5K level for the first time. (We need just under $7000 for the 5th combined doubling...then we are going to get the guns and champagne out again!).
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TheSnapper's Bank: $2 724,27 (+ 1275,89% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 147,06 (+ 10635,30% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1303,00 ($1 257,50 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $45,50
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This weekend was just another grinding, not-particularly-interesting-or-unusual kind of weekend.There were no streaks or slumps of importance to report. I am still holding my $600 lead over Mr.Kelly in the race to Florida.

I went 7/9 for a profit of $201,53. My bank is now over 12 times larger than when I started! It's a new all-time high for me, so that also means a withdrawal of $105 for investment. (I am keeping only half of my bank in Betfair and investing the other half as the bank grows.)

Mr. Kelly has been kind of circling around, he seems to be preparing for another logarithmic frenzy ( I love that phrase!). This weekend he went 6/9 for a profit of $98,11. His bank has now grown over 100 times since he started! Staggering stuff, to be sure! His last high was on June 5 (sounds like a recovering drug-addict ) at $2707, so it has been 8 days ... his previous longest slump lasted 9 days...so, we might expect something explosive soon from the big guy from Texas.

TheSnapper's Bank: $2 607,58 (+ 1216,96% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 130,30 (+ 10551,50% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1285,86($1 239,00 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $46,86

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A quick update for everyone . Over the past 2 days I added $129 profit, going 9/13 on the horse lays. I hit a new all-time high, so I withdrew $18,50 from Betfair and sent it to the investment team. Mr. Kelly also has that logarithimic look in his eye again...he gained $42 going 8/13, but I think he is building up to anoher logarithmic frenzy, he has been quiet lately (probably hung-over...).
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I am using half-Kelly stakes and Mr. Kelly is using the full-Kelly stakes for laying horses. Recently I have made a good comeback to take over the lead, but I am rather sure that Mr.Kelly (The Perfect Gambler) will storm back sometime soon.
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What is Kelly Staking?



Kelly staking is based on the math developed by John Kelly, a heavily-armed, chain-smoking mathematician at Bell Labs back in the 1950s. Basically, it states that a gambler should be interested in compounding his profits, like a snowball, and that there is an optimum bet size for doing this for any bet, as long as you know your edge, bank size and chance of winning.

Kelly has attracted a cult-like following of gamblers eager to make a fortune. There is quite a debate about this. Many critics claim that Kelly staking is just like martingale system, which rolls over your profits (until you get nuked, of course!). Others declare it is not useful for sports betting, since edges can't be determined mathematically like in card games.

Personally,I think that the real point of Kelly staking is missed by most people. It is not just about winning profits, it is more importantly about protecting your bank against a wipe-out (as in Martingale systems). When you hit a long losing streak, Kelly staking reduces your bets to protect your bank. Level staking always contains a risk of losing your entire bank, but Kelly staking doesn't bear this risk. Conversely, Kelly Staking then increases your bets as your bank grows, giving you more profits than level stakes during big winning streaks. It is a two-sided system of growth and protection.

It reduces the betting to a coin-flip. Imagine you have a trick coin which flips heads more often than tails. Inevitably you will win money betting on heads, right?. The only question to you is, how to win the most money you can? What is the best stake to have the most profits over, say, 1000 flips? 10,000 flips? 1 million flips? That is exatly what John Kelly answered for you. The optimum stake is to bet the full Kelly stake (which is your edge divided by the odds offered by the market).

Anyway, that's all I am doing. It is just flipping a coin each horse-race and growing my bank. I could do the exact same thing with a trick coin The results speak for themselves.

TheSnapper's Bank: $2 477,57 (+ 1151,61% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 087,66(+ 10338,30% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1 098,11 ($1 044,00 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $54,11
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Mr. Kelly took it on the chin yesterday, going 2/6 for a loss of -$472,15.

I had a good day, winning 6/6 for a gain of +$389,68

Not only that, but I am back in the lead in the Race to Florida!
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It's another all-time high for me, and the best day I have ever had ($389,68), passing the previous daily high of $230,43 I set yesterday. I'm on quite a roll lately... 19 straight winners over the past 3 days for a profit of $961,75. It's my best run on this blog. As always, you hope it lasts, but you know it won't...

As Mr. Kelly once said, "I'm going logarithmic, man!!"

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A new high means a withdrawal of $195 from Betfair to the reserve investment bank.

TheSnapper's Bank: $$2 088,51 (+ 954,80% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 559,81 (+ 12699,05% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1 021,64 ($967,04 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $54,60
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Well, a good day for everyone! The sun is shining again. I went 4/4 for a gain of $230,43 and Mr. Kelly went 4/5 for a gain of $129,34.

A new all-time high for me of $2088,51, passing the old high of $1944,68 set back on May 27, 10 days ago , the longest gap between new highs.

A new high means a withdrawal of funds from Betfair of $76,96, to be invested.

In total, Mr. Kelly and I and the boys in Amsterdam now have $4702,92 for the dream house in Florida. We're getting there! Day by day, week by week....
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TheSnapper's Bank: $1858,08 (+ 838,42% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2430,47 (+ 12052,35% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1 021,64 ($967,04 capital invested)
Demonic Profits:  $54,60
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Mr. Kelly got dinged yesterday for a -$240,42 loss. His only bet was:

Runner            Stake    Odds    Liability    Result
Sapphire Rouge    $80,14    4,00    $240,42            -$240,42

Ouch!

I won 2/2 for $102,34. We only managed 3 bets yesterday, unfortunately.
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The investment team in Holland report a profit of $54,60 to date from the reserve bank investments. Keep up the good work lads!



I recommend that you don't leave piles of money in Betfair. Why? Well, you could put it to work if you don't need it for gambling. If you leave your money in Betfair, they hold it in the Royal Bank(rupt) of Scotland and they collect interest on it, not you. I only keep half of my bank in Betfair and I withdraw funds each time I hit a new all-time high to the investment team running two mutual funds for me. One fund is for stocks and the other is for bonds. To date, my withdrawals to my investment plan has totaled $967, which has produced $54,60 in profit for me. Forget those crappy free bet offers! Make your own free bet money, people!

TheSnapper's Bank: $1755,74(+ 786,74% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198,00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $2 670,89 (+ 13254,45% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20,00

Shannon's Demon Value: $1 016,91 ($967,04 start capital)
Demonic Profits:  $49,87
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Strange day yesterday. Either I was too distracted or something, but the prices were rather good and I couldn't find many opportunities to lay. Only Mr. Kelly made 1 bet, a partial match which he won for profit of $53,60. So, the day was a wash-out except for that. If the price is bad, I don't bet. Simple.
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