TheSnapper

TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 511,56
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 836,48
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $169,56
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 725,07
initial investment:        $1 761,13
profit:         -$36,06
       
Total Funds:         $4 481,54
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Well, Mr.Kelly suffered 4 straight losses yesterday, ending up 2/7 for a loss of -$162,11
I had a happy day, going a manly 6/6 for $82,18 profit.
Longshot Larry hit a run of 11 straight, just to lose to a 11.0 runner.
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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 429,38
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 998,59
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $188,31
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 725,07
initial investment:        $1 761,13
profit:         -$36,06
       
Total Funds:         $4 580,22
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Mr. Kelly bounced back with 4/4 wins for a $145 profit. Longshot Larry was also hot, winning 7 straight for a modest gain of $17,93. I got pounded, going 1/4 for a -$76,50 loss.

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The combined stats for myself and Mr.Kelly combined since 08.03.2011 are as follows. Theses are all lay bets in the horseracing place markets. The stats show that at level stakes, patience and discipline will be rewarded over the long haul.

Total Bets    1249
Points    199,93
%    16,01%
   
Total Stake    $49 464,82
Total Profit    $3 614,08
%    7,31%

TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 505,88
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $2 853,59
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $170,38
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 766,62
initial investment:        $1 778,80
profit:         -$12,17
       
Total Funds:         $4 517,68
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Well, everybody lost yesterday, the hardest hit was Mr. Kelly, who went 5/9 and lost -$351,21. July has been a dismal month so far and we are all stuck in  a big holding pattern, waiting for a big winning streak. Our best streak in July was Mr. Kelly who hit 8 straight for a manly $753 profit from July 1-2. I hit 7 for a measly $84 gain from July 13-14. Longshot Larry, who should be rolling in massive winning streaks, slammed 23 straight for $42 on July 7-9. So, the streaks have been there...but what I want is the mother-of-all-winning streaks! (...and who doesn't?)

Seriously, though...losing periods are a time for reflection...particularly a look at the stats to see objectively how things are going. I felt better after looking over the stats from March to July. They show a healthy level stakes profit for all of us.

STATS SINCE 08.03.2011
The Snapper
Total Bets    Total Wins    Total Points Lost    Total Points Profit    Edge%    Total Stake    Total Profit    Stake Edge%
632             421    -336,74    84,26    13,33%    $19 003,10    $803,82    4,23%

Mr.Kelly
Total Bets    Wins    Losses    Points Lost    Total Points Profit    Edge%    Total Stake    Total Pofit    Stake Edge%
617         429    188    -303,83    125,17    20,29%    $30 255,62    $2 741,76    9,06%

Longshot Larry
Total Bets    Wins    Losses    Points Lost    Total Points Profit    Edge%    Total Stake    Total Profit    Stake Edge%
232         199    32    -167,00    32,00    13,79%    $673,36    $65,53    9,73%

(Sorry if the columns are not quite straight here, but you get the idea. The important point is that my stats confirm the Massey stats for returns on horseracing results. It's not clear exactly why Mr.Kelly has  6% better return at level stakes than I do, but it might be that he has a higher average lay price, although I am not sure why that is...it could just be a fluke.)

TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 585,44
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 204,82
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $187,36
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 768,20
initial investment:        $1 778,80
profit:         -$10,59
       
Total Funds:         $4 967,03
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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 510,25
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 051,71
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $223,15
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 775,69
initial investment:        $1 785,10
profit:         -$9,41
       
Total Funds:         $4 775,70
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Only Longshot Larry was in the black after yesterday. His bank has reached an all-time high of $223,15. Since his half-bank ratchet is set at $106, he now moves his ratchet up to $111 and withdraws $12 and sends it to the investment bank.

Longshot Larry has also increased his staking to 3/4 Kelly stakes, based on half of his bank.

Beyond that, I am stuck in a losing period, as you can see in the chart, and Mr. Kelly has been going in circles for awhile now.

I corrected a mistake in the investment fund. I have invested $1785,10 as of today. The "volatility pumping" action of the demon will soon be ready... it seems that a big period of market volatility is coming (i.e. a crash)the way that politicians are running the economies (i.e. badly)and the mega-debt spirals that are underway...anyway...Shannon's demon doesn't try and predict the market, it just reacts to it, up or down.



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TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 497,39
TheSnapper's Start Bank:         $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 241,99
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $204,07
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:         $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 752,25
initial investment:        $1 837,98
profit:         -$85,73
       
Total:         $4 539,72
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Thanks to the recent market decline, my investment fund is almost large enough to actually begin work. The way it works is that I have 50% invested in stocks and 50% invested in bonds. The stocks have declined in value thanks to those free-loving, free-lunching Greeks and other Mediterranean-types, the current awful state of government debt around the world, Europe in particular.

Anyway...my stocks have declined in value by almost 3%, and now make up only 49% of my funds. I will now convert bonds and buy more stocks as the prices continue to decline. The idea is that the markets will eventually recover and I will have bought lots of stock on the cheap. Shannon's demon tells me exactly WHAT to buy or sell, WHEN to do it and exactly HOW MUCH capital to use. I think it is just so cool...!

At the moment, the demon is telling me to sell some bonds and buy some more stocks...but since the fund is so small, I will have to wait to make even a minimum order!

TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 568,33
TheSnapper's Start Bank:     $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 157,81
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $183,26
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:     $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 879,20
initial investment:        $1 837,98
profit:                 $41,22
       
Total profits:         $4 632,62
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The half-stake ratchet helped to prevent a run-away disaster this weekend for everyone involved. The stats were not pretty:

TheSnapper,2/7 wins, -$177,76
Mr.Kelly, 4/9 wins, -$-445,94
Longshot Larry, 9/12 wins, -$-27,27

Ouch!

Anyway, this should give you an idea of the kind of losses you will take on poor results as layer. It's kind of like the U-Boat commander in Das Boot, sitting under a depth charge barrage and he mutters "...and now we wait". And that's what we are doing in our betting u-boat. We are waiting for the next big winning streak to arrive, but until then, we can get pounded.
In the meantime, our Kelly staking will reduce our stakes to protect our banks and our ratchet will protect our winnings. Currently, the ratchet guarantees our profits in the following amounts:

TheSnapper:$876,00
Mr.Kelly: $1905,30
Longshot Larry; $106,34

These amounts reflect the portions of these banks that are not calculated in the Kelly Staking. They are outside of the betting bank and have already been removed for investments. It is a good psychological tactic to reduce your betting stress during a bad run.  I know that if I quit right now,  I will at least walk away with this profit. I can sleep at night knowing that I am guaranteed $2887,64, and that includes unforseeable, but possible, disasters such as Betfair closing, the Royal Bank(rupt) of Scotland collapsing, gambling being banned, etc...because these profits have already been withdrawn from Betfair.

TheSnapper's Bank:         $1 732,88
TheSnapper's Start Bank:     $198,00
       
Mr. Kelly's Bank:         $3 711,80
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank:         $20,00
       
Longshot Larry's Bank:         $196,24
Longshot Larry's Start Bank:     $100,00
       
Shannon's Demon:         $1 879,51
initial investment:        $1 837,98
profit:         $41,53
       
Total profits:         $5 364,45

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Mr.Kelly's recent streak ended with a thump yesterday. He went a flaccid 3/6 for a loss of -$262.47. He hit an all-time high of $3974,27 after his recent 8/8 run.

After 158 bets, Longshot Larry is still chugging along. He broke even yesterday, after winning 15/17. (That's why laying longshots is tough...the guy wins and wins and then BOOM! down he goes!)

So, a dull day with no profit to show for it. A waste of time? Nope. You never know what is around the corner and you have to put in the bets, race after race, day after day to pile up the profits. That's the difference between the pros and the amateurs: a pro plays for the long term and an amateur just wants to bet on one or two races and make a quick buck. They are really playing two different games.

TheSnapper's Bank: $1 749,47
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $3974,27
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Longshot Larry's Bank: $197,03
Longshot Larry's Start Bank: $100

Shannon's Demon: $1666,40
initial investment:$1610,50
profit: $55,90

Total profits: $5658,67

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Yesterday, I changed all of the betting funds for myself, Mr.Kelly and Longshot Larry to half-bank, ratcheting. The idea is to use only half of your betting bank, and invest the unused half. Each time your bank reaches a new high, you withdraw funds to your investments. You never have more than 50% of your bank at risk, and the unused half is gaining profits for you. So, I am now using half-bank, half-kelly staking, Mr. Kelly is using half-bank, full-Kelly staking, and Longshot Larry is using half-bank, half-Kelly staking (on the horseracing win market).
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Mr. Kelly continued his rampage yesterday... he has won 8 straight for a profit of $1028,64. He's going logarithmic, man!

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Kelly Staking and the half-bank ratchet

One of the great advantages of proportional staking is that you can protect yourself better against bankruptcy during a losing streak. Of course, you can still be reduced to virtual bankruptcy (i.e. losing 99,9% of your bank), but it would take an amazing mega-streak of bad luck (assuming you have an edge and a fairly high strike rate). The system reduces your staking as your bank decreases, and keeps you in the game long enough to hit the inevitable big comeback.

Notice that fixed stake betting (i.e. betting $10 on each event, for example)offers no such bank protection, and you also face a real risk of 100% bank loss, with no "floor" in your betting bank. A $100 bank will be gone after 10 straight $10 losses. ( A Kelly staker would still be going, however....)

By using half of your betting bank and a proportional staking system (Kelly), you can limit the amount of possible loss to your bank. Each time your bank  reaches a new high, you withdraw funds to your reserve bank. You calculate your stake based not on the entire bank, but just on the half used for gambling. It is a simple, but very effective method of bankroll management.

Think of it like a ratchet. Only half of your bank is used, and this amount increases with each new bank high. Each new high sends a payment to your bank account.

So, for a practical example. Mr. Kelly has a bank today of $3974,27. Half of this ($1987,13) is under the careful control of my investment team. Mr. Kelly can never lose more than $1987,13, no matter how ugly a losing streak becomes. His full-Kelly stake is now based on $1987,13. Let's say he has a great day tomorrow and wins $500. His bank is now $4474,27. Half of this is $2237,13, so Mr. Kelly withdraws $250 and invests it. He then uses $2237,13 to calculate his next stake.

Remember...poor bankroll management is what kills most gamblers.

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TheSnapper's Bank: $1 670,69(+ 763,46% profit)
TheSnapper's Start Bank: $198.00

Mr. Kelly's Bank: $3 408,02(+ 16940,10% profit)
Mr.Kelly's Start Bank: $20.00

Longshot Larry's Bank: $203,55(+103,55% pofit)
Longshot Larry's Start Bank: $100

Shannon's Demon: $1666,40
initial investment:$1610,50
profit: $55,90

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Yesterday was an interesting day. I suffered my third straight losing day, going 2/2 for a loss of -$38,96.

Congratulations to Longshot Larry who is on a smashing roll lately...a 22-straight winning streak which has doubled his bank from $100 to $203,55. It took the wild-eyed nut only 119 bets to double his bank, starting back on June 27.

But the big news is that Mr. Kelly has gone logarithmic again! He won 4/4 yesterday for a profit of $626,07...driving his bank up to a new all-time high of $3 408,02.

The recent up-and-down of the markets has also driven my investment demon to profits of $55,90.

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