Tennis
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Sinner is not only a boring pick, but maybe also a bad pick as the heat could get to him again, looking like another heatwave on the way, +30 degrees upwards, he collapsed spectacularly at the French because of he couldn't cope with it all. Novak also notoriously struggles in the heat but maybe Sinner's has actually prepared better for it this time. Fancy the likes of Shelton, Eala and Jovic to have good tournaments. Backed Shelton to win this tournament at the start of the year, and haven't changed my mind.
A shame Draper has to run into Fritz in round 1, really that's a semi final sorta match when both at their very best, gone for Fritz but really could be either. Think Novak will avenge the Fonseca defeat in Paris, they're on a collision course in Round 4 here, it's worth bearing in mind considering we are expecting no rain for the next two weeks and very dry conditions in general, that although the ball will fly through the air quicker, upon impact with the drier more brittle surface, it will grip and sit up more allowing for more baseline rallies, which is really what helped a previously and relatively poor grass player in Iga, to win the tournament last season as she suddenly had more time and could dominate with her forehand, i.e it starts to play almost like clay which she excels on and what a lot of other players were complaining about, probably helped Cobolli as well reach the last 8 who is also traditionally better on the red dust.
They can close the roof with extreme heat on the air conditioned show courts but generally they like to keep it open as it's not an indoor event, they try to compensate by over watering courts late evenings but from what I saw last year, makes not that much difference as it still doesn't play like grass should with lower ball bounces which traditionally benefits big servers, the back of the court particularly quickly becomes completely worn out given it's where most of the play is.
Paolini out of form but the likes of Shnaider, Peak Sorana who's having her best ever year in her last ever year, Kostyuk, Felix, Cobolli etc, could do very well given the above. I have made the wild pick of Shnaider to win outright.
ATP
Winner: Shelton @ 21 .........Value punts/Alternative: Paul @ 67, Fonseca @ 67 , Tien 351
1st Quarter Winner: Sinner @ 1.2 Value Punt/Alternative: Cilic @ 101
2nd Quarter Winner: Djokovic @ 1.9, Value Punt/Alternative: Tien @ 19
3rd Quarter Winner: Shelton @ 3.75 Value Punt/Alternative: Cobolli @ 17
4th Quarter Winner: Zverev @ 2.75, Value Punt/Alternative: Cerendolo @ 15
...................................
WTA
Winner: Shnaider @ 81.........Value punts/Alternative: Iga @ 10/1, Jovic @ 34, Eala @ 101,
1st Quarter Winner: Sabalenka @ 2.25 Value Punt/Alternative: Ostapenko @ 41
2nd Quarter Winner: Jovic @ 8.5 , Value Punt/Alternative: Kalinskaya @ 26
3rd Quarter Winner: Iga @ 3.25 Value Punt/Alternative: Eala @ 19
4th Quarter Winner: Shnaider @ 23 Value Punt/Alternative: Cirstea @ 21
...................................
full picks at http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/user/wta/profile/dirtballer
Kind Regards.
A shame Draper has to run into Fritz in round 1, really that's a semi final sorta match when both at their very best, gone for Fritz but really could be either. Think Novak will avenge the Fonseca defeat in Paris, they're on a collision course in Round 4 here, it's worth bearing in mind considering we are expecting no rain for the next two weeks and very dry conditions in general, that although the ball will fly through the air quicker, upon impact with the drier more brittle surface, it will grip and sit up more allowing for more baseline rallies, which is really what helped a previously and relatively poor grass player in Iga, to win the tournament last season as she suddenly had more time and could dominate with her forehand, i.e it starts to play almost like clay which she excels on and what a lot of other players were complaining about, probably helped Cobolli as well reach the last 8 who is also traditionally better on the red dust.
They can close the roof with extreme heat on the air conditioned show courts but generally they like to keep it open as it's not an indoor event, they try to compensate by over watering courts late evenings but from what I saw last year, makes not that much difference as it still doesn't play like grass should with lower ball bounces which traditionally benefits big servers, the back of the court particularly quickly becomes completely worn out given it's where most of the play is.
Paolini out of form but the likes of Shnaider, Peak Sorana who's having her best ever year in her last ever year, Kostyuk, Felix, Cobolli etc, could do very well given the above. I have made the wild pick of Shnaider to win outright.
ATP
Winner: Shelton @ 21 .........Value punts/Alternative: Paul @ 67, Fonseca @ 67 , Tien 351
1st Quarter Winner: Sinner @ 1.2 Value Punt/Alternative: Cilic @ 101
2nd Quarter Winner: Djokovic @ 1.9, Value Punt/Alternative: Tien @ 19
3rd Quarter Winner: Shelton @ 3.75 Value Punt/Alternative: Cobolli @ 17
4th Quarter Winner: Zverev @ 2.75, Value Punt/Alternative: Cerendolo @ 15
...................................
WTA
Winner: Shnaider @ 81.........Value punts/Alternative: Iga @ 10/1, Jovic @ 34, Eala @ 101,
1st Quarter Winner: Sabalenka @ 2.25 Value Punt/Alternative: Ostapenko @ 41
2nd Quarter Winner: Jovic @ 8.5 , Value Punt/Alternative: Kalinskaya @ 26
3rd Quarter Winner: Iga @ 3.25 Value Punt/Alternative: Eala @ 19
4th Quarter Winner: Shnaider @ 23 Value Punt/Alternative: Cirstea @ 21
...................................
full picks at http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/user/wta/profile/dirtballer
Kind Regards.
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Thanks ,some interesting points /picks.
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Shelton lost to a 25 year old Finn ranked 140 in the world
 didn't even know Finns play tennis FFS |
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Watched a bit of it ,the Finn was playing lights out tennis ,hitting lines everywhere,Shelton didn't do a lot wrong from what I saw .Unlucky ,mes.
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With Eala out, this is officially my worst ever pre-tournament predictions and it's not even close, usually even the losers go deep and I get some value for money, yet nearly every things lost at the beginning the second week this time round, from a 200/1 shot nearly coming in at the French, to all outright potential winners out on the second Monday lol. Paolini was out of form but she's cruising this tournament. Last time I backed a winner to win a slam who was out in Round 1 was Jabuer at the French, she then made the next two Grand Slam finals in row. I'll be back to back Shelton and Shnaider at the US Open then
 Even Sabalenka was dumped out so I wouldn't even have got that right. For the 10th year in a row WTA will have it's 10th different winner. I'll just have to file this under "inexplicable" and move on. Roll on the US Open. Kind Regards. |