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18 years and 4 months after appearing in his first Grand Slam final, Novak is going for his 25th title, Carlos aiming to be the youngest ever player to have won all 4 majors at the age of 22. He's already won 6 in total, just 2 short of Agassi's total of 8 slams.
It would be one of the greatest ever sporting achievements if Novak could beat prime Sinner and Alcaraz back to back in the best of 5 at the grand old age of 38 years, will be 39 in May. Can't see it, Carlos is the quickest player I've ever seen on court and that will count for a lot. Djokovic has openly admitted his tank empties during 4th/5th sets into older age but was helped by a walkover in Round 4 and a retirement in the quarters with Musetti leading 2-0 before throwing in the towel due to injury. People say Alcaraz is a better match up for ND and that is reflected in the respective h2h's but it's more prevalent in the best of 3. Carlos leads 3-1 in slams ignoring the French open 23 where Alcaraz retired and was cramping long before with nerves in that match.
He saved 16 out of 18 break points against Sinner which is unsustainable against the top players, Alcaraz topped the list for the last 52 weeks for highest % of 1st serve return points won and 2nd overall for most return games won in total.
Watching Carlos in particular against De Minaur was like watching a computer player on the hardest setting, if he plays like that in the final he can't lose. I'd like to be wrong but doubt it.
Alcaraz to win 3-1.
Kind Regards.
It would be one of the greatest ever sporting achievements if Novak could beat prime Sinner and Alcaraz back to back in the best of 5 at the grand old age of 38 years, will be 39 in May. Can't see it, Carlos is the quickest player I've ever seen on court and that will count for a lot. Djokovic has openly admitted his tank empties during 4th/5th sets into older age but was helped by a walkover in Round 4 and a retirement in the quarters with Musetti leading 2-0 before throwing in the towel due to injury. People say Alcaraz is a better match up for ND and that is reflected in the respective h2h's but it's more prevalent in the best of 3. Carlos leads 3-1 in slams ignoring the French open 23 where Alcaraz retired and was cramping long before with nerves in that match.
He saved 16 out of 18 break points against Sinner which is unsustainable against the top players, Alcaraz topped the list for the last 52 weeks for highest % of 1st serve return points won and 2nd overall for most return games won in total.
Watching Carlos in particular against De Minaur was like watching a computer player on the hardest setting, if he plays like that in the final he can't lose. I'd like to be wrong but doubt it.
Alcaraz to win 3-1.
Kind Regards.
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Carlos isn't playing anywhere near his best. Horror show from Novak. Hard to explain if it isn't fatigue but we've seen this so many times from him
I think fatigue in that poor service game and the next, then deciding to save his energy for the remaining sets, but impossible to tell with him.
market not overreacting to this set score, and rightfully so.
a silly market would have pushed Carlos's price below SP after that set.
Feel for Novak 1.7x backers. Had a feeling that we were witnessing a focused Novak about to win possibly in straights, and then he played unfathomably bad. Spraying shots long and into the net
so Novak not off for a comfort break, just went backstage to shut the roof.
Feb 1, 2026 -- 9:59AM, TheCarambaExperience wrote:
so Novak not off for a comfort break, just went backstage to shut the roof.
the next games will be telling. I'm expect a focused Novak again.
I feel with Novak we often see him in agony but still making shots. Hitting the bottom of the net is not what we usually see, but I wouldn't count him out.
Market turning on him, 1.39 to 1.29 Carlos for these two split games.
Feb 1, 2026 -- 10:10AM, TheCarambaExperience wrote:
Market turning on him, 1.39 to 1.29 Carlos for these two split games.
Yeah, bizarre. Novak starting to wake up again and will prevail
no reaction for that convincing hold. Just 1.29 to 1.34
Bizarre. Great point ! It's been quite flat until then !
not sure I've ever seen a round the net post shot in not win the point.
He's actually played quite badly for the first two sets
those kind of points must be so demoralising for Novak.
Feb 1, 2026 -- 10:30AM, TheCarambaExperience wrote:
those kind of points must be so demoralising for Novak.
100%
It got him broken the next game earlier too
Feb 1, 2026 -- 10:30AM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:
Feb 1, 2026 -- 10:30AM, TheCarambaExperience wrote:those kind of points must be so demoralising for Novak.100%It got him broken the next game earlier too
When it was 30-30 and Novak looked like getting BP, was then broken next game
No signs of fatigue from Carlos. Makes the 1.4x Sinner outright look even more silly
So what's the difference this set to the first set ? Nole playing quite a bit worse and Carlos fully engaged and playing very well ?
Novak has gone from 10/10 to 3/10 and Carlos 5/10 to 9/10.
maybe 8/10 Carlos, he's still doing some mugging.
Yeah. Though I would say more 6/10 Novak, an improvement from 1/10 set 2 !
Feb 1, 2026 -- 10:41AM, TheCarambaExperience wrote:
maybe 8/10 Carlos, he's still doing some mugging.
Yeah, spot on !
there are flashes of brilliance from Novak, but lots of tired looking shots, hence my low score.
Totally mate. A shadow of his first set but a big improvement on second set so was hard to score !
That was very funny !
If you call out during the point you will be sent out and that will ruin your night !
If you call out during the point you will be sent out and that will ruin your night !
yeah I suppose a 3/10 Novak doesn't push a Carlos like this.
the dead pan way in which he said it as well.
I think if Novak goes up a click and Carlos down a click we get a decider, anything else and mes has nailed it
At 30-30 in that Carlos game Novak looked like he was on top for a BP. Wins it with momentum and the mentalities can change. Such points can have monumental affects on matches. Be very interesting to see in a parallel universe the differences !
this Slam has about 4 different winners if we're playing the parallel universe game.
or De Minaur who has an outside chance if Sinner crashes out against Spizz.
I think Musetti's body will always fail him unless he gets that sorted.
feel like it's been a long time since I saw a classic djokosmash
Weird putting Rafa on the big screen mid game between points
he is making funny faces, what do you expect the producer to do?
Carlos has never had a crowd cheering hard for the opponent in a big close match, so we'll see how he handles that if it goes to a 5th.
although they are pro Carlos as well, so will probably be fine.
13 WTA R1 matches today across 3 tournaments. Never any rest for us!
saw a stat that carlos is 29-0 when he's been 2 sets to 1 up
Novak usually wins these types of games.
Monster hold. That missed fh on BP was monstrous
Feb 1, 2026 -- 11:34AM, SabineIsGOAT wrote:
saw a stat that carlos is 29-0 when he's been 2 sets to 1 up
this going to a 5th would be a different beast though with the crowd going bonkers for Novak.
Gutted. Makes that fh and we might have had a 5 setter
still every chance. Carlos not his best.
It would be tennis and television history giving what's on the line. Want to witness it so bad
Feb 1, 2026 -- 10:58AM, SabineIsGOAT wrote:
feel like it's been a long time since I saw a classic djokosmash
...
I've watched tennis for decades and never wanted to see a final set so much. So much on the line, it would just be incredible to witness
Great call mes. That seemed nailed on after the missed BP. Unreal achievement Carlos. Soo good. Insane from Novak to even be there. Great tournament all !
He's a freak right mes, awesome call. Wonder how many he will collect in total
Novak either wins the love of the crowd or Slams. Can never get both at the same time.
Bringing the comedy despite having such a heart breaking loss 
I think it's quite an easy loss to take as he knows apart from the first set he was the inferior player !
Great speeches
Great speeches
Lost 2 points on serve and 4UEs in the 1st set, unreal
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