Respect Murray

dom't remind me, cost me a fortune in those matches

its "respec maaan"

the op has a fair question but getting up for so many matches must be tough. all the top players focus is on the slams
& after that they have to kinda pick & choose which other tournies work for them, including the 1000's.
They all throw a couple cos the season is too congested.
No argument now that Djoker is #1 & Andy is #2 right now.

understand him doing that in lesser tournies, but surely he would be at near 100% almost every game in a slam...at least to conserve energy.

yeah it's a bit of a mystery at times but probably shows the small margins between winning easy and getting into those battles
Murray got into early. When Andy does play well he's pretty damn good.
It aint easy to keep it up all the time, or at my age now & again

Just so odd he struggles against a 37 year old, and a challenger level player first two rounds - but pretty much destroys world no.4 and the reigning champ at RG!

The tough game v Step made sense, he's a clsss player, always has been. The other one was a seriously surprising but Murray took the
foot off the gas and tried to cruise home & Borgue had other ideas.
Like I mentioned it's small margins over a long period that the top players rely on.
If any game at the mo goes to 5 sets Djoker or Muuray are huge favs cos those margins become magnified.

Yeh, there can be fine edges at times.

But I still wouldn't see Djokovic having those 5 set battles given the same 1st and 2nd round matches Murray had - I'd back around evens that he'd win both straight sets.

below evens that should say.

fair comment, I think he would probably have whipped them off the court although Stepanek will give anyone a tough game.

Djokovic was nearly beaten by seppi a couple of years ago here , Melzer beathim here from two sets down, so not sure what you are going on about stu???  It happens every player , every sport , different day brings different things and surprise performances etc

murray often struggles for motivation against anyone but the very best.

he's mugged away plenty of gs matches against stan by hugely underestimating him and waiting for stan to f*ck it up.

not so today. he was very very good, and given that confidence is a huge part of his game, he might trouble novak in the final if he can bring this sort of aggression with him.

Agree with those points dstyle - I think it's about motivation, must be - I mean Bourgue ffs? He's been getting knocked out in R1 and 2 of challengers events...

Djokovic is absolutely desperate to win this, the only slam he's never won. Murray will have to play ultra aggressive and sustain it, he's played that way in parts against Novak in slam finals but usually fades away.

Novak win for me.

don't really agree Murray needs to be "ultra aggressive" it's just not his game and when he does he falls away after a few games.
Today he was ideal and he mixed it up perfectly and surprise & variety are imo his best weapons.
Stan just didn't know what was coming next & as a result never got in any rhythm.
Murray was very good today

Variety and mixing it up has always been Murray's hallmark.

And exactly that, it's not his game, but his game has seen him lose how many slam finals to Novak? he needs to step it up to have a chance, it was working last year in Australia before he faded.

don't think djokovic has looked super impressive last 2 weeks. his half of the draw basically fell apart with nadal's withdrawal

they're probably closer matched on the red stuff than on hard courts at the moment and not sure the fact he's desperate to win it is a massive plus point. he may only have this year and next as good chances. very few slams are won by players over 30 and it's even harder on clay where you have to work so much harder to win points

2-4 in slam finals with all 4 losses in melbourne

the thing is, I've seen murray try the patient build up thing and Djokovic just picks him off, I think the best way to unsettle him is to play as aggressive as he can, murray doesn't hit balls with a lot of spin which makes things more difficult to win given novak is the best returner, want murray to win but if you had one bet to make, it wouldn't be for him, well I wouldn't

Of course Djoker is fav but there is something about Murray in the last week that makes me think he has a shot.
Possibly that refuse to lose attitude but also the improved serve. He will need to serve very well to have a
real shot but he seems more at ease with it and varies the speed and spin well.
Stan struggled with it but Novak is of course a better returner.
If he keeps his head together I do think Murray has a decent shout tho.

Maybe that was it northern - he was just practising his 'refuse to lose' for this match earlier in those first rounds!

it is odd that he has made the final considering how he drifted off into some pretty awful stuff in those 1st couple of rounds.
I would cut him some slack vs Stepanek who is a very good player and really played well with conditions to suit but the Bourge game was a fiasco. To be a set up & a break up & get in that sort of trouble was ridiculous. His mind was in the locker room & it was a rookie error.
Still he's somehow made it to the final round & you gotta be in it to win it.

whoever wins the first set , wins the le french open.  FACT

how can something that has not happened yet be a "fact" ya doughnut
it is a fact that the winner of the first set has a huge advantage, by about a set imo.

It's not about yr 'imo'  its about hard concrete facts.  The facts are about stats and trends and the below are given since the australian 2013 final.  This  proves it  ya donut!. Damn, i want to be proven wrong because I don't want to see another 1st set win then championship win borefest tomorrow!

!
18/2016    F    Rome Masters    Clay    Andy Murray    Novak Djokovic    6-3 6-3    3.00 - 1.40    
17/2016    F    Madrid Masters    Clay    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    6-2 3-6 6-3    1.22 - 4.33    
3/2016    F    Australian Open    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    6-1 7-5 7-6(3)    1.17 - 5.25    
45/2015    F    Paris Masters    I Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    6-2 6-4    1.25 - 3.75    
41/2015    SF    Shanghai Masters    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    6-1 6-3    1.01 - 15.00    
33/2015    F    Canadian Masters    Hard    Andy Murray    Novak Djokovic    6-4 4-6 6-3    2.80 - 1.43    
21/2015    SF    FO - RG    Clay    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    6-3 6-3 5-7 5-7 6-1    1.25 - 4.75    
13/2015    F    Miami Masters    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    7-6(3) 4-6 6-0    1.32 - 3.88    
11/2015    SF    Indian Wells Masters    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    6-2 6-3    1.37 - 3.50    
4/2015    F    Australian Open    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0    1.45 - 3.10    
44/2014    QF    Paris Masters    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    7-5 6-2    1.40 - 3.35    
40/2014    SF    Beijing    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    6-3 6-4    1.37 - 3.50    
35/2014    QF    US Open    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    7-6(1) 6-7(1) 6-2 6-4    1.31 - 3.92    
12/2014    QF    Miami Masters    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    7-5 6-3    1.30 - 4.05    
26/2013    F    Wimbledon    Grass    Andy Murray    Novak Djokovic    6-4 7-5 6-4    2.68 - 1.56    
3/2013    F    Australian Open    Hard    Novak Djokovic    Andy Murray    6-7(2) 7-6(3) 6-3 6-2    1.62 - 2.52    NOVAK LOSES FIRST SET THEN WINS THE OZ OPEN..SHOCK!

yeah but the above are facts & as i say the advantage is gained by winning that first set is a fact but saying who wins
the 1st tomorrow goes on to win is a hypothesis not a fact. After the event it will be a fact.
hth

cmon you know i was joking.  over a two year period whoever has won the first set - 100% of the time has gone on to win the champs. apologies for calling you a donut too. lol

can't disagree with that but it's still not a fact. btw i like doughnuts

will be a fact this time tomorrow

it is kinda strange that it is so much the case considering those two are more likely than most to stage set down a comeback.
Despite Novak having been dominant i do think it is small margins that add up to the victories with Novak just having the edge in all the wee battles that do add up to those victories.
It's tough to see past Djoker but as mentioned there is something about Andy Murray in the last couple of matches
that seems to have a bit more steel. Whether that will enough who knows but i've got a sneaky feeling it might be.

*or stage a set down comeback even*

so who wins the 1st set north?

Jun 4, 2016 -- 11:05PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:

so who wins the 1st set north?

Muzza

Muzza? based on what? a coin toss?

if muzz does win the first, he'll be evens i reckon.  i might get on

Jun 4, 2016 -- 11:12PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:

Muzza? based on what? a coin toss?

If he gets off to a good start, first 4 games are key, need to be tight but muzzy wins, then he'll take the rest of the game

if he does what you say after the first set, novak will probably be 10-11....the same price he was pre tourni two weeks ago...hmmm

Jun 4, 2016 -- 11:05PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:

so who wins the 1st set north?

haven't got a scooby. i won't be having any money on it just hoping it's a cracker of a match.
yer dead right that 1st set is massive but who knows how it pans out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2Vb9t8XR1k

Andy might not be loved all over the UK but he's very popular north of the border

i reckon you'll be able to trade on this match quite easily.  obviously the 1.35 on novak will be be a lot bigger at some point , if novak has 0-30 on serve and in his 1st game I can imagine he'll be 1.55 or something..... it's learning not to be greedy and then cashing out at the right time.

i thought you said whoever wins the first set wins "fact."
difficult to trade a fact

break of serves happen on clay fact
this therefore is a trading op fact

whoever wins the first set fact

apparently on this board it wasn't difficult laying and trading williams today fact

so yr telling me novak will never trade above 1.35 for the whole entire match against the world no. 2?

so your only trading in the first set, after that it's just buying money, obviously.

if novak wins the first set...i'm not wasting my sunday afternoon and I;m turning off the tv.  fact

aye there will probably be a nice rom com on channel 5

it's an interesting note,the people who have beaten novak this year and last year alll have really good b/h slices: federer, wawrinka, karlovic, deliciano (novak had an eye injury).  Murray better take note 

having said that the only thing karlovic can do is a big serve and b/h slice then try and bang a volley.

Murray could play Boris Karlovic every week for the next 5 years and never lose.
He's particularly adept against the big servers with f all else to back it up.

So what I am saying is that if murray isn't using the backhand slice much in the first 6 games, it will be a novak whitewash, and I;ll be able to tell you that right away in-play.  Everyone knows Novak struggles with slice because the only thing he can do is hit a flat ball back, and on clay you cannot get away with that against an elite level player.

hopefully murray learnt from his last victory against novak, slice is key

i'm fairly sure he will slice a fair few. seems to me he's mixed it up pretty well in the last couple of matches.
Playing Djiker must be murder at the best of times but i think, like his US open win, mixing it up is his best chance.
Murray seems to be more at ease with that way of thinking at the mo.
Looking at the forecast appears possible that they might have to come off it goes into the late afternoon. A rumble of thunder
in the forecast around the 4-5pm hour.

slice all day long - long and deep and as often as possible without playing novak's baseline game.  otherwise 3 zip novak.  nice talking to a person on this forum with a brain and doesn't mind a bit of banter and self depreciation.

right back at you. those mega threads have killed any real tennis chat imo. i can't keep up with what subject they are onto next.
i'm kinda old & crusty tho

I think the only player who would easily give novak fits at this stage of his career would of been Tommy Haas.  To my knowledge he was the only player on the ATP circuit who utilized a closed racquet face for both his 1h backhand and b/h slice - which is still unheard of.  If you do not not know what I am talking about ask your tennis coach .  Obviously guys with terrible backhand slices like berdych's, tsonga's or even ferrer's cannot dent Novak but if Haas would of stayed injury free and fit he would probably beat novak 50-60% of the time even now with that beautiful disguise on his backhand wing.

ahhh Tommy what a graceful player. he would surely have won a slam if injury free. having said that fed has his number.
not sure about novak as he is such a good problem solver that Tommy would not have had things his own way but i get your point.
At his best Tommy Haas was one of the very best to watch along with David Pablo Nalbandian for who it was more of a mental rather than physical problem.

a peak rafa owns fed because of that left topspin forehand to federers bh fact
a peak federer owns djokovic because of his low backhand slice which novak can't do anything with (no spin medium paced balls)fact
a peak federer owns haas because he is better in every single department fact
a peak injury free haas would own djokovic most of the time for the reason on point 2 educated assumption (h2h reccord 6-3 novak)

Tommy Haas was a brilliant player but don't pretend he was mentally strong - he was a mentally midget and hadn't the balls to win a grand slam.

i agree, but no offense to wawrinka, he ain't not the most mentally strong either yet his slice and b/h causes Novak all kinds of problems. With Haas's closed b/h slice that would have taken anticpation time away from novak and no doubt been a major hindrance.

do any of you feel murray is value at 3.75?

you'll get bigger in play. 4-5s is value. if he doesn't win the first set, go watch the original jungle book on channel 5 or something

its a shocking price. pre-tournament he was 5/1 and that was stupidly low.

novak was 10-11 pre tourni and when nadal pulled out his odds have been the same odds at around 4/9 since, so it is just as shocking.

This first set win statistic sequence  is now going to be broken . hooray for no more predictable ATP tennis!