Tennis
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This is my NAP for the summer.
He's matured over the last 12 months and his game suits grass courts.
Feel free to ridicule me.
He's matured over the last 12 months and his game suits grass courts.
Feel free to ridicule me.
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he showed enough glimpses last year to justify some of the expectation.
would have to go on a crazy tear and show previously unseen consistency to win it. should be 100s for wimbledon rather than 30/40s as he seems to be |
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Don't see him getting past the qf's at a slam this year
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that would depend on his draw.
in his matches against top 10 players last year, when he's focused, he finally showed that he may well have enough to mix it with them. his real problem is too many losses against second rate players when his intensity goes down. no point being able to trouble the big 4 in a slam if Grega Zemlja knocks you out in the second round. |
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he's about to lose this 1R match..
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DStyle hit the nail on the head. He's shown glimpses, but he would have to take a massive step up to actually do it.
He's the kind of player the market always overrates outright in grand slams because he's obviously a popular outside bet. |
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Djokovic is surely too short though. I never get why the market always seems to rate Djokovic on grass the same as it does on hard courts when all the stats suggest it shouldn't.
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Think it's too soon for him for reasons mentioned. Wimbledon is the Slam where an upset is most likely though, since Novak/Rafa aren't as dominate on it and defending champion Murray has struggled overall since his win last year.
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......Dimi currently snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
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He wont.
This is like every year when a new young player makes 2 or 3 nice matches and then nothing but hype. He can't even win a set to the top 4 unless one of them is injured |
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Id rather take Tsonga @ 120/1 + than dimitrov @ 30-50/1 if i were looking for alternatives
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somebody had gasquet matched at 740. good trade there
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Not gonna ridicule you because he's probably like 40/1 or something. But i can't see him winning.
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That's the other thing with Dimitrov's price. You take this price, he gets to the QF's and he's still probably going to be around this price.
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dimitrov is rubbish. he's got as much chance of winning wimbledon as a brit (bar murray) has.
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*if he takes
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They were ridiculous
 Generally 40-60 and even at 30's |
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28 is the lowest I remember.
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Lol and he lost in the next round
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It was funny, he played Kohlschreiber in the next round. Match odds for that match was Kohli 1.5-1.65 Rosol 2.50-3.00, whereas outright Rosol was around 30 and Kohli around 300.
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yeah simply cause of the fact that people thought Rosol had the weapons for future rounds
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sadly the same thing didn't happen with Darcis's odds the following year.
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What about Stak beating Fed last year?
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hahah easy to guess no impact for those wins
at least shouldn't been |
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Don't think they shortened much, beating Fed in 2013 by that point was no big deal. But I do remember Tomic's odds shorten a lot when he was on the rise, I think at the Wimbledon where he took out Söderling.
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Sabine's odds also went to silly levels (3.6?) after she beat Serena last year.
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with three matches left to play.
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Was she favourite in the outright at that point?
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Guessing she was behind Aga actually
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That was probably about right though on the odds of her matches.
She was (approximately) 1.44 vs Kanepi, 1.72 vs Radwanska, 1.44 vs Bartoli. And that was one of the tougher draws she could possibly get from that point (Kvitova was still in the other side of the draw too). Stuff like Rosol @ 28s was just stupid. Because he was 3s for his next match and you couldn't really draw up a (realistic) draw that would possibly be value. Rosol's true price was probably at least 400s at that point. |
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No she was favourite outright SabineIsGOAT I'm pretty sure.
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no, she was clear fave in the outright at that point. started as 1.6 fave against aga once market opened but then I think it was around 1.8 once match actually started. and when I say silly odds, they were nowhere near as silly as rosol's odds of course, but still an overreaction.
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Completely forgot she was favourite against Aga, I backed her pre match in every round lol
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In a vacuum I don't think those were bad prices on Lisicki really. It's just the reality was (and I posted this before the final so it's not after timing) you could almost smell a no show in the final.
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Back on topic, Dimitrov just won the 2ND SET against Ramos after losing the first.
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He'll need to win against mugs like Granollers and Ramos in straight sets and not waste energy if he wants to go deep at slams.
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He has two problems on that stand point. He's still not matured to the point that he just routines players you have to routine (especially of importance at grand slams). Sets like today it was pretty much just a focus thing, gifting away an early break, and playing too sloppy a set.
At the other end, you still don't trust him physically to last 5 sets with the bigger names. From this stand point grass is the best surface for him though, you get more easy points on grass. Grass is the hardest surface I feel for Nadal and Djokovic to just say I am going to keep you out here for 4 hours +, what have you got. His match vs Nadal at the Australian Open was pretty impressive, but he's got to be able to do that for another 2 hours. |
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This match against Ferrer will be interesting. Ferrer the fav on clay obviously, but I've had a small wager on Dimi to beat him.
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