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Mendimtari
24 Jan 14 12:41
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Date Joined: 15 May 04
| Topic/replies: 287 | Blogger: Mendimtari's blog
I'm not even going to consider what would be a stunning upset on Sunday.  The fact is that in 12 meetings, not only has Wawrinka never won a match against Nadal, he's never so much as taken a set.  That really is journeyman territory.

Having said that, there might be a glimmer of hope for the Swiss no. 2 in the most recent relevant results.  I think it's safe to discount results in 2010 and earlier.  Since then, three of the five meetings have been on clay, so scratch those too.  The other two, on hard, have also been the latest two; and there Stan got to three tiebreaks and one of them went to 12-10.  So, from a "trajectory to current form" point of view, given that they're not meeting in the first week but in the final which Stan had to beat Novak to get to, could he possibly sneak a set this time?  Or "will the occasion get to him".

But that's absolutely the maximum I think he'll manage to do.  If I were in this market I'd go for Rafa 3-0 with a stop-loss on 3-1.

Opinions?
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Report YOMOMMA January 24, 2014 11:51 AM GMT
5 of those 12 were on clay.

the rest were close with numerous tie breaks and set points to wawrinka. he's much better these days, so yes he can easily take a set this time around depending if he has no 1st final nerves.
Report Mendimtari January 24, 2014 12:03 PM GMT
"numerous set points to Wawrinka" - got any link to your source for this?

I've already discounted both clay and earlier matches.  And still the most likely outcome is a one-way street.

If Rafa does go an early break down, my goodness fill yer boots!
Report lurka January 24, 2014 12:05 PM GMT
Nadal 3-0 will be about evens. They met twice on hard late last year and played 3 TBs. I am certain Stan had a set point in at least one of them on his own serve and mugged it. He may have had more than one (probably 2 or 3 including Rafa's serve). TB in Shanghai was 12-10 rafa, so probably that one.
Report lurka January 24, 2014 12:06 PM GMT
Also a 14-12 TB in Toronto in 2010, more than likely had a SP then
Report YOMOMMA January 24, 2014 12:06 PM GMT
numerous tie breaks - 4 of the last 7 sets on hard courts have got to breakers. i'm sure wawrinka has had set points along the way as the scores in those breakers have been 7-5 8-6 12-10 and 14-12.
Report lurka January 24, 2014 12:09 PM GMT
and he may have had SPs before those TBs as well, he may even have served for a set at 5-4 or 6-5 in one of them and had Sps. I'm sure someone will have a breakdown
Report YOMOMMA January 24, 2014 12:09 PM GMT
nadal 3-0 should be odds against. 2.2+ i wouldn't back it at 2.38 but you can never tell how a player will play in his 1st big final.
Report YOMOMMA January 24, 2014 12:17 PM GMT
actually i wouldn't back anything cos i keep losing. Laugh
Report DonNo1 January 24, 2014 12:21 PM GMT
If he doesn't choke like last time
Report mouse trap January 24, 2014 1:30 PM GMT
Wawa had a SP in the 2nd set TB at WTF (6.11.2013) at 6-5** (on Nadal's serve), Rafa won both his service points and then Wawa lost his serve at MP, 8-6 Rafa GSM.

Wawa also had a SP in Shanghai 11.10.2013 in the first set, 6-5* Rafa was serving to stay in the set and the game went from Rafa's point of view 0-15, 0-30, 15-30, 30-30, 30-40 SP Wawa, then deuce etc. eventually Rafa made it to the TB.  The TB was also interesting, Wawa had two SPs at 8*-7 on his serve, and at 9-8* on Rafa's serve, but failed to convert both.  Rafa succeeded on his 4th SP, 12-10 TB and set.

So in these two matches from last year Wawa had 4 SPs, one of them when serving.  None taken.
Report YOMOMMA January 24, 2014 1:37 PM GMT
3-0 settled at around 2.1

I thought it would be slightly bigger but the fact is Wawrinka has not won a set yet in 12 matches so I suppose it can't be bigger than that.
Report Agarsseee January 24, 2014 1:40 PM GMT
My money is on Wawrinka playing below par due to "final pressure". Not sure how you check it but I would guess that "non big-boys" who make slam finals tend to play **** when their big chance comes along. Saying that Im wrong all the time lol. Only thing that is nailed on in sport is Nada beating Fed in slams. Its written all over Feds body language every time they play. Best odds ever was at aussie a few years ago, fed was slight fav going in proceeded to win first set and break in 2nd. Then got pumped again. Love Nadas victory speeches, bigs up the rivalry!!! The rivalry where hes won 8 slam matches in a row lol!!
Report nsx January 24, 2014 2:00 PM GMT
Yes Federer was 1.65 fav two years ago. Nadal was 4+ after Fed won the first set. I think those were the best prices ever Laugh
Report Mendimtari January 24, 2014 2:41 PM GMT
There may well be truth in the big-moment theory against SW.  These two have met in two finals and four QFs and there was only one TB (in the last of the latter).
Report mesmerised January 24, 2014 2:44 PM GMT
Hope he takes 1 set to make it interesting, at today the GOAT debate has been settled.
Report RONALRON January 24, 2014 5:51 PM GMT
Missed Rafa`s post-match interview....was it mentioned how his injuries ( blister and ankle ) are holding up, please?
Report Supernando2010 January 24, 2014 6:34 PM GMT
it is difficult to predict just how much Stan will be able to do, if anything, we will see what he is really made of tomorrow. I think he can take a set, but more then that i doubt it, winning 3 sets somehow would really be out of nowhere since his record against Nadal speaks very much for itself.

Im usually a big fan of laying crappy odds in finals cause at this level, most matches are 50-50 anyway but i dont think that is the case here cause none of their matchups were anything close to 50-50 so far.
Report YOMOMMA January 24, 2014 6:39 PM GMT
i think it will be 3-1.
Report lurka January 24, 2014 6:41 PM GMT
where'd you get all that info Mouse Trap? On a free site?
Report brain dead jockeys January 24, 2014 9:09 PM GMT
we are talking here about the greatest player of all time whose only career blips were losing his first wimb two finals to fed who is the greatest player in history of grass and then losing 3 major finals in a row to inspired tennis by joko.............another great................rafa knows history is being played out on sunday and he will destroy him.
Report JustWinBaby January 24, 2014 10:20 PM GMT
Rafa has not played the STANIMAL though Excited
Report YOMOMMA January 24, 2014 11:07 PM GMT
I hope Wawrinka wins. If he takes the 1st set anything can happen.
Report stu January 25, 2014 9:17 AM GMT
If I were in this market I'd go for Rafa 3-0 with a stop-loss on 3-1.

Think the OP had it in one there. My bet too.
Funny that the 3-0 has drifted, cant see why? Easy win in semi for Rafa just to make it clearer for him. If he was 'injured' how did that happen?
Report jermaine defonebox January 25, 2014 10:10 AM GMT
The fed will be helping Stan out he's already riled up rafa quite rightly complaining about the ridiculous time wasting and grunting
Stan the man will win this rafa is not playing anywhere near as well as Stan .Rafas rather feeble serves could be smashed straight back down his grunting throat.
Only Stan can blow it his self.
Report stu January 25, 2014 10:21 AM GMT
Only Stan can blow it his self.

Which is what he always does v Rafa...?
Report stu January 25, 2014 10:31 AM GMT
How many times have players played better than previous rounds when reaching their first GS final? Odd time perhaps, but not often.
Report aaronh January 25, 2014 10:53 AM GMT

Jan 25, 2014 -- 11:10AM, jermaine defonebox wrote:


The fed will be helping Stan out he's already riled up rafa quite rightly complaining about the ridiculous time wasting and gruntingStan the man will win this rafa is not playing anywhere near as well as Stan .Rafas rather feeble serves could be smashed straight back down his grunting throat.Only Stan can blow it his self.


JD often talks a load of **** but this taking it to new extremes I think

Report Supernando2010 January 25, 2014 12:33 PM GMT

Jan 25, 2014 -- 11:31AM, stu wrote:


How many times have players played better than previous rounds when reaching their first GS final? Odd time perhaps, but not often.


Very rarely actually, almost never. It is an unproven rule that the first timer usually breaks down (considering he is playing a multiple slam winner of course), no matter how brilliant he was en route to the final.

It takes a special player with a mentality of a champion, to not break down in the final. Del Potro won against all odds playing a seemingly invincible Federer in 2009, he was nearly down and out but he refused to lose and he was 0-6 against Federer prior to that match.

But Wawrinka is not Del Potro and Nadal is not Federer. (He is mentaly much stronger then Federer). This is why i doubt Stan can do a whole lot.

Report stu January 25, 2014 12:48 PM GMT
Becker possibly an exception to the rule when he won at Wimbers?

Most others (even the greats) didn't play that well in their first final.

Interesting to think of them: Fed, Rafa, Djoko etc??
Report stu January 25, 2014 12:52 PM GMT
Fed won his first, but only beat Philipousis (first GS final for him too)
Report stu January 25, 2014 12:53 PM GMT
actully not quite true - he'd made us open final once before
Report stu January 25, 2014 12:54 PM GMT
Rafa won his first...guessing the greats don't fall into this pattern so much...
Report stu January 25, 2014 12:55 PM GMT
Djoko lost his first
Report bb66 January 25, 2014 3:21 PM GMT
Nadull in his 1st slam final had a really mighty opponent, who will remember Mariano Puerta being a finalist?Shocked
Report stu January 25, 2014 3:27 PM GMT
Hmmm, that makes his first win seem little less impressive yes.

I'd doubt could come up with a first time finalist who beat (or played well) a seasoned finalist.
Report dlarssonf January 25, 2014 3:29 PM GMT
Marat SafainLove  won his first slam final against pistol pete in New YorkCoolCool  if the fellow had a bit of discipline could have bagged a rack of majors
Report dlarssonf January 25, 2014 3:30 PM GMT
rake evenGrin
Report stu January 25, 2014 3:33 PM GMT
Decent shout there.

Are we going against this idea then, lol
Report horsenipples January 25, 2014 4:23 PM GMT
Yeah, I think you've got it really.  Can't see Stan taking anything but the first set.  Strangely, out of the last 4 matches for Nadal, Federer will probably end up being the least competitive

Nishikori was close in each of his sets and Dimitrov was a set point easy put away missed from being 2-1 up.  Federer folded after the first as I figured he would. 

Stan will probably fight harder to stay in the match but ultimately you want him to win the first so that you can get some decent odds on him.

Worked out for me last night as Li started slowly and you could see that the only way she was going to lose that match was if she would not find any game....even in the second.  So when Cibulkova drew even in the first I backed Li at 1.48...and felt that was worth a bet.

I'm hoping Stan will show some balls in the first set and I can get a similar deal.  Of course if he ****s the bed in the first set, we'll probably never see 1.2 again except in the very unlikely event that Nadal lets Stan back into the match, something he most probably won't do.

But I also like your 3-0 wager with a stop loss at 3-1.  I'll have to look at the numbers to see how this will work out.  I agree that anything other than these two results seems highly unlikely.
Report jermaine defonebox January 25, 2014 8:30 PM GMT
Stan will turn his chair area into a complete rubbish tip. Which will really rag up rafa with his bottles all the right way and neatly folded towels.
Stan is a man who uses old towels cause they absorb the sweat not the new ones that just smear it over yourself like rafa does .
No girly blisters on Stan
The crowd love him and so do I .Nothing can stop him.
World number 1 by end of yearCool
Report therhino January 26, 2014 7:10 AM GMT
Since 2000, the grand slam finals that fit this profile - a champion against a first time finalist, suggest a straight sets win is on the cards:

2013 French - Nadal v Ferrer: Nadal in 3
2010 Wimbledon - Nadal v Berdych: Nadal in 3
2009 US Open - Federer v Del Potro: Del Potro in 5
2009 French - Federer v Soderling: Federer in 3
2008 US Open - Federer v Murray: Federer in 3
2007 US Open - Federer v Djokovic: Federer in 3
2007 Aust - Federer v Gonzalez: Federer in 3
2006 Aust - Federer v Bahgdatis: Federer in 4
2005 French - Nadal v Puerta : Nadal in 4
2003 Aust - Agassi v Schuttler: Agassi in 3
2002 Wimbledon - Hewitt v Nalbandian: Hewitt in 3
2002 Aust - Safin v Johansson: Johansson in 4
2001 US Open - Sampras v Hewitt: Hewitt in 3
2001 Aust - Agassi v Clement: Agassi in 3
2000 US Open - Sampras v Safin: Safin in 3
2000 French - Kuerten v Norman: Kuerten in 3
Report therhino January 26, 2014 7:15 AM GMT
16 finals, 10 of them straight sets wins to he who had won a grand slam going against the first time finalist. Safin is not a Rafa, and 2 of the non straight sets were drubbings handed out to Sampras in the twilight of his career. Wawrinka may have gone to another level over the last couple of years, but he is still fragile mentally in my opinion, and history is not on his side. 2.28 on Nadal 3-0 equals value in my opinion, and the OP is bang on the money imo. 3-0 with a 3-1 saver if you must is a fine strategy.
Report bustino January 26, 2014 7:30 AM GMT
backed wawrinka at 70s but was v dissapointed by him vs berdycch.........he was too conservative,,,,,,,,,if he dosent uphis game will get blown away............has to be aggresive attack nadals serve..........hopefully can nick first set and gives us chance to dump some cash

bit gutted didnt lump onto nadal at evs before semi but the blister tempered my euthusasim
Report therhino January 26, 2014 7:42 AM GMT
Why not trade it now? A winner at 11s ish. Nothing wrong with that.
Report Supernando2010 January 26, 2014 10:06 AM GMT
surprised Stan was still 1.10 by the end of the second, considering Rafa is mostly just standing there.
Report Supernando2010 January 26, 2014 10:16 AM GMT
hopefully Rafa can still make this a match but more then anything i think this was just a mental lapse by Stan when the finnish line was getting near his horizon. 1,28 seems generous.
Report YOMOMMA January 26, 2014 11:20 AM GMT

Jan 25, 2014 -- 12:07AM, YOMOMMA wrote:


I hope Wawrinka wins. If he takes the 1st set anything can happen.


\o/

Report bb66 January 26, 2014 11:34 AM GMT
wrong question in OP, should have been 'can Nadull take a set from Wawa'Blush
Report Angel Gabrial January 26, 2014 12:46 PM GMT
Personally i think Stan can win this, was Nadal struggling with his back in practice? if so his serve will be tender and Stan will return winners.

What time is the final?
Report stu January 26, 2014 12:47 PM GMT
Amazing result really, although you could just say Rafa was injured so was this actually a true test of the theory?
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