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I have a big trade going on with Berdych. I was wondering what you guys think his SP would be vs either Rog or Raf. Obviously a lot of variables (one day more rest, length of matches) - lets just assume both semi's are won in 4 sets. I was thinking around 3.0 v Roger or 4.5 v Rafa (terrible H2H record).
Interested to know... I cannot get over his huge price still. I am going to re-back him to win the tournament and hedge slightly with a back of Waws in the match odds market.
Interested to know... I cannot get over his huge price still. I am going to re-back him to win the tournament and hedge slightly with a back of Waws in the match odds market.
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Berdych outright is 11
Berdych vs Waw now 2.28
Berdych in final (if he makes it, expected average odds) 11/2.28 = 4.80
Now this will be a huge simplification (disregarding matchups, hth, probability of Fed/Rafa making the final etc.), but you can calculate the potential prices in the final vs. Nadal and Fed this way:
Rafa outright 2
Fed outright 3.7
Rafa's odds are 54% of Fed's. Assuming the same ratio for the final with Berdych, and assuming the average of the two odds to be 4.80 (see above) we get
odds on Berdych vs Rafa or Fed:
Fed_Final/Rafa_Final = 0.54
(Fed_Final + Rafa_Final)/2 = 4.8
Fed_Final = 9.6-Rafa_Final
(9.6-Rafa_Final)/Rafa_Final = 0.54
9.6 - Rafa_Final = 0.54*Rafa_Final
9.6 = 1.54*Rafa_Final
Rafa_Final = 6.23 (odds for Berdych in final with Rafa)
Fed_Final = 9.6-6.23 = 3.37 (odds for Berdych in final with Rafa)
Take these rough calculations and make any adjustments as you see fit.
Berdych vs Waw now 2.28
Berdych in final (if he makes it, expected average odds) 11/2.28 = 4.80
Now this will be a huge simplification (disregarding matchups, hth, probability of Fed/Rafa making the final etc.), but you can calculate the potential prices in the final vs. Nadal and Fed this way:
Rafa outright 2
Fed outright 3.7
Rafa's odds are 54% of Fed's. Assuming the same ratio for the final with Berdych, and assuming the average of the two odds to be 4.80 (see above) we get
odds on Berdych vs Rafa or Fed:
Fed_Final/Rafa_Final = 0.54
(Fed_Final + Rafa_Final)/2 = 4.8
Fed_Final = 9.6-Rafa_Final
(9.6-Rafa_Final)/Rafa_Final = 0.54
9.6 - Rafa_Final = 0.54*Rafa_Final
9.6 = 1.54*Rafa_Final
Rafa_Final = 6.23 (odds for Berdych in final with Rafa)
Fed_Final = 9.6-6.23 = 3.37 (odds for Berdych in final with Rafa)
Take these rough calculations and make any adjustments as you see fit.
*Fed_Final = 9.6-6.23 = 3.37 (odds for Berdych in final with FED)
Berdych, has a terrible recent record against Warwrinka. Since the beginning of 2010 Warwrinka has won 6 of the 7 matches played and the one he did win, was a Davis Cup match, not that, that makes a lot of difference.
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