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smb360
01 Mar 13 06:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 62,727 | Blogger: smb360's blog
Is this Christmas? 1.47 for Pav to beat a 16 year old who has never won a WTA match (Zarina Diyas and Chanel Simmonds do not count, even if they were main draw matches)?

Barty may well go on to be a good player as she looks to have some considerable talent, but I just can't see anything to justify this price. The set which Mona lost 6-2 to her is entirely meaningless, since Mona was just clubbing the ball out of the court on every shot as only she can. I didn't see Cibulkova lose her set to Barty, but it seems that, like Mona, she just woke up and clubbed the child off the court - 6-0 6-1.
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Report Blake84 March 1, 2013 6:28 AM GMT
Seems too good to be true.
Report smb360 March 1, 2013 6:38 AM GMT
Judging by her twitter, she has an ankle sprain and hates the humidity.

She sprained her ankle in the second set against Dushevina, but won the set and the next. Then she beat Akgul in 2 two. So it's difficult to judge how much of a problem it is.

At least the price suddenly seems explicable.
Report mouse trap March 1, 2013 7:30 AM GMT
you are talking a GS (doubles) winner here Devil
Report hdieu March 1, 2013 8:03 AM GMT
barty beat pavlyu in australian open this year straight sets
Report Blake84 March 1, 2013 8:17 AM GMT
Your an idiot.
Report mesmerised March 1, 2013 8:45 AM GMT
Scattered showers forecast and 80% humidity.

It's the same for both players either way.
Report DStyle March 1, 2013 9:24 AM GMT
it may well be the same conditions, but one of the players is a fat sweaty layabout who has wilted in the heat plenty of times before.
Report Marin1977 March 1, 2013 9:26 AM GMT

Mar 1, 2013 -- 8:03AM, hdieu wrote:


barty beat pavlyu in australian open this year straight sets


This

Report thebulletdodger March 1, 2013 9:56 AM GMT
I was thinking on lumping on Pavlyu until I noticed that thos las Barty beat her straight sets ... now I'm thinking of laying Pavlyu
Report ;[p March 1, 2013 9:58 AM GMT
barty good prospect but easy job for pavlu
Report DStyle March 1, 2013 9:59 AM GMT
am i missing the joke about the Australian Open here?
Report mesmerised March 1, 2013 10:00 AM GMT
They've never met before.
Report prele_ March 1, 2013 10:00 AM GMT
on Pav to win 1st set
Report leefee March 1, 2013 10:04 AM GMT
Looks like Barty fell over on entrance to the court and her left foot fell off
Report leefee March 1, 2013 10:04 AM GMT
1.31 Shocked
Report thebulletdodger March 1, 2013 10:05 AM GMT
Ashleigh Barty
Barty 1 : 0 Pavlyuchenkova
1996-04-24 Date of birth 1991-07-03
AUS Nationality RUS
  Height (cm) 177
  ATP ranking 29
R Hand R
  Turned pro 2005
  Career titles 3

According to betfair Stats - see it yourselves
Report leefee March 1, 2013 10:05 AM GMT
You trust betfair stats? Shocked
Report leefee March 1, 2013 10:06 AM GMT
1.29
Report ;[p March 1, 2013 10:06 AM GMT
LaughLaugh who the fck would use betfair statsLaugh
Report ;[p March 1, 2013 10:06 AM GMT
now e know why
Report ;[p March 1, 2013 10:07 AM GMT
market thought is barthel
Report thebulletdodger March 1, 2013 10:07 AM GMT
I would take a look at them from time to time ...., why?
Report leefee March 1, 2013 10:08 AM GMT
No reason
Report prele_ March 1, 2013 10:10 AM GMT
Massacre has begun
Report ;[p March 1, 2013 10:11 AM GMT
perfectly good stats
Report mouse trap March 1, 2013 10:11 AM GMT
http://instagram.com/p/WQ2Cn2wdUK/
Report ;[p March 1, 2013 10:12 AM GMT
Excited
Report ;[p March 1, 2013 10:13 AM GMT
pawlu must be hungry
Report ;[p March 1, 2013 10:13 AM GMT
she didnt win for a while
Report prele_ March 1, 2013 10:13 AM GMT
lol @ the pic
Report prele_ March 1, 2013 10:13 AM GMT
cooling down, yeah right
Report thebulletdodger March 1, 2013 10:19 AM GMT
Looks like the massacre has ended ?
I layed Pavly at 1.15. Lets see whether I can trade a little Excited
Report Bravely bold Sir Robin March 1, 2013 10:21 AM GMT
pav starting price was madness
Report parrys March 1, 2013 10:22 AM GMT
well long there
Report Bravely bold Sir Robin March 1, 2013 10:23 AM GMT
blind umpire, that was long by a half meter
Report prele_ March 1, 2013 10:23 AM GMT
6-2, 6-1
Report Supernando2010 March 1, 2013 10:32 AM GMT
jeeez what a mug pavlyuchenkova is...such bullcrap shots on break points really pathetic. now set is far from over.
Report thebulletdodger March 1, 2013 10:33 AM GMT
4-6 6-3 7-5 Excited
Report Bravely bold Sir Robin March 1, 2013 10:34 AM GMT
if pav holds but not break again, market will start to raise a little bit the odds
Report Bravely bold Sir Robin March 1, 2013 10:38 AM GMT
nice for that break
Report prele_ March 1, 2013 10:43 AM GMT
62
Report zappy March 1, 2013 10:45 AM GMT
DStyle, I know you disapprove slightly of the sweaty, fat, half-roasted pig - yet, tbh she did well winning a tb in the third against Dushevina given the heat and humidity. At least, she is roasted with some pride.. ;-)
Report prele_ March 1, 2013 10:46 AM GMT
and here comes the 61
Report prele_ March 1, 2013 11:11 AM GMT

Mar 1, 2013 -- 10:23AM, prele_ wrote:


6-2, 6-1


close call ;)

Report prele_ March 1, 2013 11:11 AM GMT
GSM
Report DStyle March 1, 2013 11:17 AM GMT
i think she has huge potential zappy. she's gets my abuse because she's squandering it through being lazy
Report zappy March 1, 2013 11:35 AM GMT
right you are, excellent timing and technique, bar the ball toss
Report DStyle March 1, 2013 12:56 PM GMT
which is easy enough to fix.

the thing is, she's not one of these girls who was a chubby teenager who is now trying to drop the weight

she's a double junior grand slam winner and wasn't anything like as fat then as she is now

http://www.zimbio.com/Tennis/articles/3oB1Vdcjdn6/Photo+Wozniacki+Pavlyuchenkova+Australian

keeping her coaching in the family as well was an awful idea clearly as she went from her mother to her brother.

she needs someone to kick her up the arse damn hard.

she should be top 10 minimum and be turning up routinely in the second week of hard court slams
Report smb360 March 1, 2013 1:29 PM GMT
In the end I didn't place the bet because I wasn't able to watch it and I don't like suspiciously high prices unless I can watch the match. Looks like I missed out on huge value.

Still, I'm glad to see that my prediction was correct. It's easy to say after the event, but Pav really should have been 1.1 here, hence the 'Christmas' implication in my OP.

It could be that we are going to see vastly inflated prices for Barty's opponents, until markets realise that she is not anywhere near ready to take on top 50 players yet. The Australian tennis setup really shouldn't be sending her to main draw tournaments yet imo, at least not those that get a proper complement of top 50 / top 100 players.

hdieu, Marin, bulletdodger - I hope you were all fishing. Barty and Dellacqua beat Pav and somebody else in DOUBLES at the AO. Utterly meaningless for singles.

As for using Betfair stats, bulletdodger: DON'T.
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