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pigdog
05 Feb 13 03:01
Joined:
Date Joined: 29 May 06
| Topic/replies: 63 | Blogger: pigdog's blog
Hiya y'all - I can announce that forum legend and serial green guy Pigdog is back in town!!

I imagine a range of emotions are currently being felt right now - delight from the mugs who know they are soon to turn a profit by following me, despair from the forum "big dogs" (e.g. rememberJeremyBates, Rome, jsimpson67, srichaphan vs ancic) who are about to be knocked from their lofty perch.

After a Betfair hiatus in 2012, where I used other websites that offered worse odds purely to test my abilities (which was a four figure success) I am back with a bang in 2013. After only moderately successful (for me) Aussie Open (thank Nicolas Altankro for that) I am once more making my tips public for my meat and drink - ATP 250s.

Pigdog's Tips - 5&6 February 2013

5 units on Tatsuma Ito @ 4.1
3 units on Steve Darcis @ 2.54
1 unit on Jan Hajek @ 2.88
2 units on Guillermo Olaso @ 3.62
5 units on Pere Riba @ 6.5
5 units on Martin Klizan @ 1.35 (this kid has talent, and still at the stage of his career where 250s matter)


Also if you are following in-play there are sick green out opportunities on Mate Pavic who is facing off against Phillipp Petzschner. This kid is the real deal, and should stretch Cheating Phil, although expecting a win may be a little too much too soon. (Though I don't think even Pavic can cope if Petzschner pulls another of his US Open Final stunts again LOL).


TIP - GET IN ON THE ABOVE TIPS ASAP AS THIS POST MAY WELL END UP SHIFTING MANY OF THESE ODDS
Pause Switch to Standard View Pigdog's Bankroll Booster
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Report jin_kazz February 6, 2013 4:44 PM GMT
mug mode on again when in front
Report Charlesaf February 6, 2013 4:46 PM GMT
Oh ffs, he's going to piss this away isn't he.
Report Charlesaf February 6, 2013 4:46 PM GMT
Thank **** for that.
Report ;[p February 6, 2013 4:46 PM GMT
boom shakalaka
Report jin_kazz February 6, 2013 4:46 PM GMT
at last ffs

thought he never make it

little mug
Report jin_kazz February 6, 2013 4:47 PM GMT
i'm in a horrible position from set #1

nice chance to improve it a bit :)
Report jin_kazz February 6, 2013 4:50 PM GMT
ffs now it looks like gonna win it

so messed up with these matches

don't understand anything now
Report ;[p February 6, 2013 4:52 PM GMT
good trade thanks ito
Report ;[p February 6, 2013 4:55 PM GMT
changing shirt color shouldnt be allowed, dirty tactic to put ur opponent off
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? February 6, 2013 4:57 PM GMT
Find me a match that Ito has won from a set down at this level.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? February 6, 2013 4:57 PM GMT
as underdog.
Report armagnac February 6, 2013 5:02 PM GMT
May 20 2012        Dusseldorf ATP

    Def. Radek Stepanek (CZE) 3-6 6-4 6-4
Report WhiteAl February 6, 2013 5:03 PM GMT
World team cup
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? February 6, 2013 5:05 PM GMT
Not in my list :S
Report Don No1 February 6, 2013 5:06 PM GMT
Marin1977     Joined: 13 Feb 08
Replies: 8754 06 Feb 13 16:12 
As soon as you show me the quote where I proclaimed myself to be "forum legend" (who is completely unknown to... everyone?)


Joined: 13 Feb 08

pigdogs's legacy was built long before you arrived and will continue long after you're gone
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? February 6, 2013 5:09 PM GMT
Is RV in blue?
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? February 6, 2013 5:09 PM GMT
not easy to tell from this blurry vid
Report Charlesaf February 6, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
Yes.
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? February 6, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
looks more Japanese on this video lol
Report pigdog February 6, 2013 5:17 PM GMT
Investors in the Bank of Pigdog free to green out if they wish. Personal decision.
Report pigdog February 6, 2013 5:19 PM GMT
Two of my disciples just texted me their thanks. Theyve just greened out big time on Ito - ERV. Have you?
Report ;[p February 6, 2013 5:19 PM GMT
huge hold
Report Srichaphan or Ancic? February 6, 2013 5:21 PM GMT

Feb 6, 2013 -- 5:19PM, pigdog wrote:


Two of my disciples just texted me their thanks. Theyve just greened out big time on Ito - ERV. Have you?


You got your shift duties through from Netto by text?

Report pigdog February 6, 2013 5:30 PM GMT
I think S or A must have ignored Pigdog's Bankroll Booster, to the detriment of his own (non-existent) bankroll. No other way to explain someone having this much sand in their v*gina.
Report ;[p February 6, 2013 5:31 PM GMT
cmmon
Report Charlesaf February 6, 2013 5:31 PM GMT
Ito Excited
Report RMB © February 6, 2013 5:32 PM GMT
Tatsuma 'Titan' Ito. Love
Report RMB © February 6, 2013 5:34 PM GMT
GSM. :)
Report ;[p February 6, 2013 5:34 PM GMT
Report WhiteAl February 6, 2013 5:34 PM GMT
The legend hast returneth!!
Report Marin1977 February 6, 2013 5:34 PM GMT

Feb 6, 2013 -- 4:08PM, Marin1977 wrote:


Lets say Ito loses as he seems he will:5 units on Tatsuma Ito @ 4.1 = -5 units3 units on Steve Darcis @ 2.54 = +4.39 units1 unit on Jan Hajek @ 2.88 = +1.79 units2 units on Guillermo Olaso @ 3.62 = -2 units5 units on Pere Riba @ 6.5 = -5 units5 units on Martin Klizan @ 1.35 = +1.66 unitsTotal result = -4.16 unitsCongrats, this is much better than I expected.


Ito miraculously escapes and pushed out newest "expert" into the black!
Spectacular stuff! Laugh

Report ;[p February 6, 2013 5:34 PM GMT
well done pigdog
Report pigdog February 6, 2013 5:36 PM GMT
On no account should anyone worry.

Summary and further tips to follow later.
Report tenniso February 6, 2013 5:38 PM GMT
pigdog • February 6, 2013 5:30 PM GMT
No other way to explain someone having this much sand in their v*gina.

Laugh Good bets, good banter. Nice job..
Report aaronh February 6, 2013 6:51 PM GMT
pigdog owning that moron S or A, pleasing

well done sir
Report pigdog February 7, 2013 10:09 AM GMT
Pigdog's Bankroll Booster - Feb 5&6 Summary

Have calculated the following assuming 5% tax applies, although in my case (and I assume others) it is obviously lower.

Ito - 5 units @ 4.1 - Profit 14.73 units
Hajek - 1 unit @ 2.88 - Profit 1.79 units
Darcis - 3 units @ 2.54 - Profit 4.39 units
Klizan - 5 units @ 1.35 - Profit 1.66 units

Losses - Riba 5 units, Olaso 2 units

Total Profit = 15.56 units
Total Staked = 21 units

Thus in a worse case scenario, the Bank of Pigdog has paid out a rate of return to investors of 74.1%.

I'm sure I don't need to emphasise how this leads to healthy returns in the long-term. As I previously stated my units are £100, thus a first time investor who knew nothing about tennis and who placed bets as instructed by Pigdog would have turned £2,100 into £3,656.

Clearly Pigdog's personal returns were much higher -
1. Pigdog is not paying the higher 5% tax rate
2. As instructed by the Pigdog, investors with even a modicum of savvy could lay Petzschner pre-match in order to green out nicely. This could, even with mediocre trading, achieve an investment return of around 2-3 units with little difficulty.
3. Some mugs were offering Klizan at 6s after the first set. Utterly bizarre.

Anyway, carry on we must.

Further tips to be posted shortly.
Report pigdog February 7, 2013 10:53 AM GMT
Pigdog's Bankroll Booster - 7 February

Tipsarevic - 4 units @ 1.88 (surely if his foot isn't properly better he'll quit early if at all)
Hanescu - 1 units @ 5.2
Karlovic - 2 units @ 2.48
Kavcic - 1 unit @ 6.6
Cipolla - 1 unit @ 3.55
Troicki - 3 units @ 1.31
Stakhovsky - 4 units @ 1.52
Andujar - 2 units @ 3
Gimeno-Traver - 2 units @ 2.06
Report aaronh February 7, 2013 11:31 AM GMT
I wouldn't hold out hope that Tipsarevic will retire early if hurt. probably more like when he's a set and 4-1 down Laugh
Report SIR_Bond February 7, 2013 11:52 AM GMT
Trocki in the pigshit already lol
Report SIR_Bond February 7, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
Trocki fooked.. 3 units going down the pan at 1.3
Report SIR_Bond February 7, 2013 12:02 PM GMT
OVERRRRRRRRRRRRR
Report pigdog February 7, 2013 12:32 PM GMT
Hey well - these things happen Grin

Long-term you win some you lose some.

Sincerely hope Troicki is fighting fit soon and can push to regain his top 25 spot.
Report SIR_Bond February 7, 2013 12:34 PM GMT
ok what we got next im upping the stakes
Report tenniso February 7, 2013 1:39 PM GMT
Stuck in a lay on Baghdatis 1.02 hoping for a quick trade
Report tenniso February 7, 2013 1:46 PM GMT
1.16 already! Happy
Report tenniso February 7, 2013 1:55 PM GMT
Kebabdatis tanked the TB Laugh
Report pigdog February 7, 2013 1:56 PM GMT
1-1 in Baggy vs Kavcic as I expected.

Now then my little piglets, it's entirely up to you how to play the 3rd set. With average trading skills after you wise initial backing of Kavcic @ 6.6 you should be easily able to make 3-4 units and become profitable for the day after Troicki's earlier misfortune.

Alternatively you can keep the original stake on Kavcic and ride it out.

Your call.
Report SIR_Bond February 7, 2013 2:35 PM GMT
nice bet piggy
Report TasteOfHoney February 7, 2013 2:55 PM GMT
Were you the PIGDOG posting some tosh about your auntie sexually abusing Roger Johnson a few years ago on 'ere?
Report SIR_Bond February 7, 2013 2:58 PM GMT
Stakhovsky - 4 units @ 1.52

oh no Cry
Report SIR_Bond February 7, 2013 3:30 PM GMT
piggy you would be better off in play all your selection lose the first set treble in odds then win.... not even joking....
Report pigdog February 7, 2013 3:41 PM GMT
That is what I do SIR. Obviously can't include it on here as the piglets won't believe me.

Got nice double figure odds on Ito, Kavcic and Cipolla recently, with two of them coming in.
Report pigdog February 8, 2013 11:11 AM GMT
So a secondly resoundingly successful day in a row for the big dog in the pigsty.
Most if not all matches tipped had insane in play trading opportunities that I presume my disciples took advantage of. Pigdog has near enough doubled his money for three days work.

Even if your trading skills aren't up to scratch it has been a successful three days.

Wrap up summary this evening. Today's tips as follows:

Friday 8 February

Llodra 2-0 4 units @ 1.48
Nadal 2-0 4 units @ 1.19
Melzer 3 units @ 1.98
Haase 3 units @ 1.89
Report pigdog February 8, 2013 11:14 AM GMT
Typo - Haase is at 1.98
Report TasteOfHoney February 8, 2013 1:01 PM GMT
Pigdog, are u full-time? I mean most of us don't have time to be trading these IN-PLAY...

ALso, after your form the last few days, I've decided to stake 20% of my bankroll on each selection above.  What brand of underwear do you find the most resilient?
Report TasteOfHoney February 8, 2013 1:14 PM GMT
Also, who's 'Typo', I have Haase down as playing Petzschner, or am I missing something?
Report aaronh February 8, 2013 1:17 PM GMT

Feb 8, 2013 -- 1:14PM, TasteOfHoney wrote:


Also, who's 'Typo', I have Haase down as playing Petzschner, or am I missing something?


Laugh

Report StevoDevo February 8, 2013 1:18 PM GMT
Yes, you're missing that Haase is @1.98 not 1.89 which is a typo. There is no such player as "Typo" Laugh
Report ;[p February 8, 2013 1:25 PM GMT
time to lay this mug haase
Report ;[p February 8, 2013 1:27 PM GMT
especially against typo ( which mean in polish bad mean guy)
Report pigdog February 8, 2013 11:15 PM GMT
SIMPLY STUNNING. OINK! OINK!

No, not my review, that's just one of the many PM's I've received. Thanks for all the support guys, sounds like a lot of you have made a lot of money off my bacon. I'm just happy to help the forum's piglets.

Anyway, wrap up for today.

Melzer - 3 units @ 1.98 - Profit 2.79 units
Haase - 3 units @ 1.98 - Profit 2.79 units
Nadal 2-0 - 4 units @ 1.19 - Profit 0.72 units
Llodra 2-0 - 4 units @ 1.48 - Profit 1.82 units

Total profit for today = 8.12 units

Total profit to date = 20.00 units

Rate of return at the Bank of Pigdog (total) = +36.4%

Let us not forget this is a +36.4% rate of return assuming the worst case scenario - i.e. you have bizarrely not taken advantage of my excellent trading tips. That's prime pork sausage to any beast in the farmyard. The Pigdog is well up on that return as fortunately many of my tips have gone a set down, so have been able to hop on again (amongst the other reasons already covered previously).

More tips tomorrow.

Safe bacon.

Pigdog.
Report StevoDevo February 9, 2013 10:14 AM GMT
Great tipping pigdog.
Report pigdog February 11, 2013 7:14 AM GMT
Right - not a great deal of value out there today, so just a couple of small piggy wagers for today's action. Hopefully the Brazil and San Jose markets get a bit more liquidity during the day.

Hanescu - 1 unit @ 3.95
Dimitrov - 2 units @ 2.36

Papa Pig won't be too offended if my disciples take day off today though.
Report pigdog February 11, 2013 9:41 AM GMT
Few more value tips come to my attention:

Klizan Matthieu - 3 sets. 1 unit @ 2.4
Mayer - 2 units @ 3.6
Report baver February 11, 2013 12:16 PM GMT
Thank you !
Report sofiakenny February 11, 2013 12:25 PM GMT
great tipping
Report Maestro_71 February 11, 2013 2:16 PM GMT
I like Mayer @ 3.85. Davydenko a headcase always worth a lay early rounds. Fancy Tomic to beat Dimitrov. Think he'll be up for this one. GL.
Report pigdog February 11, 2013 4:11 PM GMT
Oink Oink
Report jin_kazz February 11, 2013 5:02 PM GMT
this german mug have to begin to play tennis sometime

maybe today is the day

but looks like davy loves to play here

he almost beat fed last year. had breakpoints at 4-4 on fed's serve and then was broken after fed's hold. it was excellent match.

so no chances here for mayer if davy will turn on his good game

but for trading it's a good lay. if this german mug won't begin to lose badly from the start :)
Report pigdog February 11, 2013 6:37 PM GMT
Well yes, I agree Davy is the clear favourite. However Mayer definitely offers value, that's how to bring home the bacon.

If I don't trade on this one and ride out Mayer to a loss I'll have only made a huge profit today rather than a massive one.
Report jin_kazz February 11, 2013 9:58 PM GMT
mayer is really awful

his form is nowhere
Report pigdog February 12, 2013 7:30 AM GMT
Another stunning days transactions at the Bank of Pigdog.

Monday 11 February

Hanescu - 1 unit @ 3.95 - Profit + 2.80 units
Klizan-Mathieu 3 sets - 1 unit @ 2.4 - Profit + 1.33 units
Dimitrov - 2 units @ 2.36 - Profit + 2.58 units
Mayer - 2 units @ 3.6 - Profit - 2.00 units

Daily Profit + 4.72 units (doesn't sum due to rounding)

Total Profit + 24.72 units

Total Minimum Rate of Return at the Bank of Pigdog +40.53%

Worst case scenario for a mug following my tips to the letter is turning £6,100 into £8,572. Obviously it should be a lot higher than that.
Report pigdog February 12, 2013 7:33 AM GMT
May post some tips for today up in a bit. Am considering discontinuing the thread though as am receiving far less praise than I warrant.

I am here doing the forum a huge favour and making a lot of people a lot of money. I can count on two hands the numbers of appreciative oinks I've received the last week though. Pretty pathetic from the embittered masses who would like to see one of the genuine full-time pros in their ranks fail.

Let us not forget I am costing myself money by doing this thread, as several odds have moved alarmingly very shortly after I post my selections.
Report Blake84 February 12, 2013 8:00 AM GMT
Keep it up man. To be honest I've been against a few of your tips as I can't just blindly follow someone else with my money but it's been fun to follow and you've had an incredible run. The day is coming when you take some big losses though.
Report pigdog February 12, 2013 8:02 AM GMT
Okay - against my better judgement I will release the following tips for today:

Haase - 3 units @ 2.28
Llodra - 1 unit @ 2.18
Report pigdog February 12, 2013 8:04 AM GMT
"The day is coming when you take some big losses though." - agreed this does happen from time to time in the pigsty. However the days I make big gains far exceeds the days I make big losses. No other way to explain my returns over the last 5-10 years. This is a long-term career, not an odd day here and there hobby.
Report Maestro_71 February 12, 2013 8:04 AM GMT
You've turned over a good profit but I'd be interested to see how you fare a bit longer term to prove it's not a hot streak. There haven't been many surprise reults apart from the Nadal one recently with alot of matches going as expected in terms of results (in Zagreb, Montpellier and Vina). Be interesting to see how you fare when there's a few more surprise reults that come up but if you're looking for praise from this forum you're unlikely to get much of it. People just love to see others fail on here.
Report Maestro_71 February 12, 2013 8:06 AM GMT
also why do you need praise? Just enjoy the money you're making.
Report pigdog February 12, 2013 8:07 AM GMT
I will post later with more tips possibly as Kavcic, Cipolla, Pospisil, Becker and Matosevic may offer value. I need to wait for the market to flesh out and then calculate their Pigdog Quotients on my abacus.
Report pigdog February 12, 2013 8:08 AM GMT
Er... thanks Maestro. Don't fully understand as the majority of my tips are odds against. That would suggest a "surprise" to me?
Report Maestro_71 February 12, 2013 8:17 AM GMT
sorry I didn't really look back over your picks just saw your profit. Fair enough. I made a good profit last couple of weeks betting on favourites mainly just thought you might've done the same.
Report Poolio February 12, 2013 11:01 AM GMT
pigdog
However the days I make big gains far exceeds the days I make big losses. No other way to explain my returns over the last 5-10 years. This is a long-term career, not an odd day here and there hobby.


Exactly, this is a long term game. Your selections so far have been successful but you've only posted them for a few days, so far so good and I'll offer praise for that. However it's only a small window and not necessarily indicative of long term success. Keep posting for a long period and I'm sure you'll get the praise you feel you deserve as people will see you've been good over time and have overcome losing periods, etc.

You imply you've been successful betting for 5-10 years which is great but all myself and every other poster here have to go on is a few days of positive results. If you posted positive results and won long term here for 5 years+ I'm sure you would receive a lot of praise and respect.
Report Maestro_71 February 12, 2013 11:13 AM GMT
Yeh it's the losing runs that define a successful gambler. You may make profit if you stick to your staking plan even when times are tough but most people abandon their staking plan when they're losing and go chasing with heavier bets and that screws you.
Report ;[p February 12, 2013 11:54 AM GMT
oink oink !
Report Dugarry21 February 12, 2013 11:59 AM GMT
Youre doing great pigdog keep it up, interesting thread too....
Report jin_kazz February 12, 2013 12:47 PM GMT
:)
Report mouse trap February 12, 2013 12:48 PM GMT
Llodra is out of the tournament.
Report ;[p February 12, 2013 12:48 PM GMT
llorda replaced by kamke tobiasz
Report tenniso February 12, 2013 12:52 PM GMT
injury?
Report pigdog February 13, 2013 12:47 AM GMT
Update

Haase - 3 units - LOSS
Llodra - 1 unit - RETURNED
Kavcic - 1 unit - LOSS
Pospisil - 1 unit @ 2.54  - PROFIT 1.46 units
Becker - 1 unit @ 3.3  - PROFIT 2.19 units

Matosevic 1 unit @ 1.8
Cipolla 1 unit @ 3.3
Verdasco 3 units @ 1.53 are all outstanding. Bad start for Matosevic though.

So currently today a 0.35 unit loss, waiting on the remainder to show if my Pigdog Quotients worked today.
Report Elwira February 13, 2013 1:40 AM GMT
Great sense of humor and some good picks, this is an exchange so regardless of what happens in Matosevic match (currently trading @1.04) it should be deemed a winner. I want this tread to be alive...
oink, oink...
Report pigdog February 13, 2013 1:47 AM GMT
Matosevic was 1.8 when I backed him this morning. Stupid of me as he drifted a bit before the match began.
Report Elwira February 13, 2013 1:56 AM GMT
Matosevic drifted circa16 ticks pre match, also Kavcic traded @1.05 in-play, 28quid or sth traded@1.04, so taking into account the fact this is an exchange I don't perceive it as a sore loser, but sticking to your idea of reckoning unfortunately it is a looser.
Report pigdog February 13, 2013 2:04 AM GMT
Nice comeback from Matosevic. If you backed him at a break down first set then doubtless you got higher than the 1.8 I did! Tennis is a strange game, and often odder things happen than the proverbial pig flying across the sky.

With the Matosevic win - that bet returns +0.76 units of profit. (1 unit @ 1.8)

Referring to the post of 00:47 that takes the daily profit to a measly (for me) +0.41 units and profit to date +25.13 units

My piglets are also currently waiting upon the results of Cipolla and Verdasco.

One final tip before I retire:

Benoit Paire - 2 units @ 2.44

After these results are in, I shall do a more complete trotters and whistles summary.
Report pigdog February 13, 2013 2:07 AM GMT
Good points Elwira. Good opportunity for me to reiterate that obviously anyone who has a bit of nous about them is returning far higher from my picks than the returns I am quoting. I am quoting worst case scenario returns.

Anyway, off to bed - need to be up early to tidy my sty.
Report StevoDevo February 13, 2013 2:07 AM GMT
I couldn't work out the big drift on Matosevic. Thought he should have been reasonable fav against basically a Challenger player with a half decent serve.

Enjoying the thread, keep it up!
Report jin_kazz February 13, 2013 2:10 AM GMT
it's not the first time like that with sock

a lot of hopes about this mug give us good odds

2011 miami
sock vs. berlocq

also evens
Report pigdog April 13, 2013 1:16 PM BST
Right then. I shall re-enter the fray. Was getting mighty peeved at receiving scant praise for achieving outrageous returns, so I decided to take some time out, make some more green in private (which also made my job easier and the markets stopped swinging due to people piling on after my tips). The sheer weight of positive PMs I keep receiving shows no signs of abating

We'll re-begin with a couple of casual Saturday dibblers.

Tommy Robredo - 1 unit @ 4.2
Martin Klizan - 1 unit @ 2.38
Report jin_kazz April 13, 2013 1:36 PM BST
no chances for robredont. 1st set maximum that he'll be able to take. while he's fresh.
Report pigdog April 13, 2013 5:53 PM BST
WHEN WILL PEOPLE LEARN?! Well done jin_kazz, another entry to the Hall of Shame (in this thread alone). If someone who knows far more than you on a particular topic posts one would have thought that one would accept what the knowledgeable individual takes as given, no?

The delicious irony is that what actually happened couldn't be more disparate from your horrendous prediction. Are you Srichaphan or Ancic's second log-in?

Good Saturday so far for the Pigdog.
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