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talk about overreaction
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kohlschreiber is the opponent of the winner of this match and he trades @ odds above 300
You're right, most likely Kohlschreiber is rubbing his hands together at the moment.
this guy will best anyone serving like that... or he will lose 0-3 next match
cant believe what im seeing. traded @34 still. this guy has to win 5 matches. if he is @2 in every match, those odds are correct. but he has to play: kohli, baker/paire, tsonga, ferrer (murray) and fed/djokovic
28s the most ridiculous price i've ever seen in an outright market 
even if he was to make the final (no chance), i'd have him 10s to win that..
even if he was to make the final (no chance), i'd have him 10s to win that..
didn't martin verkerk trade about 14s for wimbledon after getting to the roland garros final ?
Back to 60
Good for you if had a lay @ 30 for £1000
Now you can back @ 60 for £500
Give guaranteed £500
Good for you if had a lay @ 30 for £1000
Now you can back @ 60 for £500
Give guaranteed £500
Beat Kohli, which would be no surprise, and he'll be shorter again. What's his draw like after that.
It's a rare sight to see all those guys @ 1000 and then Rosol of all people @ 44.
what you have to remember was that rosol choked the 1st set against rafas lowest level. rafa was still at his lowest level in set 2 which rosol won. then rosol played well for set 3 and half of 4. rafa had picked it up and rosol just played an insane 5th set of tennis
only thing i can compare it to is safins 5th set in aus open 04 in the qf vs agassi
7-6 7-6 3-6 1-6 6-3
immense display of serving and hitting in that 5th
only thing i can compare it to is safins 5th set in aus open 04 in the qf vs agassi
7-6 7-6 3-6 1-6 6-3
immense display of serving and hitting in that 5th
he should be 50 to beat Murray and Djokovic, never mind 3 more players before them
he is 2.5 against kohli now.
---> baker/paire 2
---> tsonga 3
---> ferrer (murray) 3
---> fed/djokovic 5
and those are generous estimations.
correct odds: 225
---> baker/paire 2
---> tsonga 3
---> ferrer (murray) 3
---> fed/djokovic 5
and those are generous estimations.
correct odds: 225
46 atm ---> 2,5 vs kohli. so he should be 18 if he wins vs kohli.
your calculation is not correct. against tsonga 3, against murray 3? no way. 4,5 at least, normal value would be 6-7.
He will lose next round almost guarenteed. Gulbis like (although Berdych isnt quite as good).
djyt
29 Jun 12 08:25
Joined:
06 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 375 | Blogger: djyt's blog
your calculation is not correct. against tsonga 3, against murray 3? no way. 4,5 at least, normal value would be 6-7.
you are right. i was exaggerating to the extreme.
29 Jun 12 08:25
Joined:
06 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 375 | Blogger: djyt's blog
your calculation is not correct. against tsonga 3, against murray 3? no way. 4,5 at least, normal value would be 6-7.
you are right. i was exaggerating to the extreme.
cant believe what im seeing. traded @34 still. this guy has to win 5 matches. if he is @2 in every match, those odds are correct. but he has to play: kohli, baker/paire, tsonga, ferrer (murray) and fed/djokovic
Why, have those guys received a bye and are already through?
when i saw the 1000 being taken when he won 3rd set i thought hmm may be worth a trade laying at 200 or so but missed it never did i think the market would overreact this much
i agree hes a lay at even 60 but thats a lot of risk for very little reward
jjjjjjjjjj even if he wins match after match i cant argue with your pricing
i do think hes worth a small back v kohly today
to me theres far too many question marks around him to have a proper bet
beating nadal could give him the self confidence he needs to become a top player or last night could be a 1 off or nadal had a very off day, its hard to know how mentally drained hell be against kohly, and could easily have an off day and lose 3-0, at same time he can come out and play like he did in the 5th and blow schreiber off the court
i was expecting odds to overreact like in outright and for it to be in to evens or even rosol favourite, at these odds im going 20 on rosol match odds as ihave to put a small amount of faith in anyone who can beat rafa
i agree hes a lay at even 60 but thats a lot of risk for very little reward
jjjjjjjjjj even if he wins match after match i cant argue with your pricing
i do think hes worth a small back v kohly today
to me theres far too many question marks around him to have a proper bet
beating nadal could give him the self confidence he needs to become a top player or last night could be a 1 off or nadal had a very off day, its hard to know how mentally drained hell be against kohly, and could easily have an off day and lose 3-0, at same time he can come out and play like he did in the 5th and blow schreiber off the court
i was expecting odds to overreact like in outright and for it to be in to evens or even rosol favourite, at these odds im going 20 on rosol match odds as ihave to put a small amount of faith in anyone who can beat rafa
theowalcott, truth to be said, rosol worth a small bet @2.5 (he was still impressive with Nadul)
now smart brains back rosol again into 44 as federer could be losing. obviously they think this will improve rosols chances for the title.
theyv also backed him into 2.2ish in match odds vs kohlschreiber
odds shortening in the outright makes sense, him shortening against kohl doesn't.
rosol is now @3.1 to win vs kohlschreiber, but only @48 to win the whole tournament. so if he wins vs kohlschreiber, we should expect odds of 16.
seems to have been easy money soon in the bag laying Rosol outright @50 and below
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