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Jason Bourne
26 May 12 23:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 21,982 | Blogger: Jason Bourne's blog
Wouldn't be a slam if I couldn't get in amongst the outright action:

Novak Djokovic @ 4.4
Understand why Nadal is favourite, but 1.7 ? If he wins every match pretty comfotably leading up to the final and has to play Djokovic, he wouldn't be far off that price in the final. Djokovic has the right draw to make the final without expanding too much, Tsonga is the best QF seed he could have got. Federer in the semis obviously brings back memories of last year but that was a bit of a freak performance from Federer against a Djokovic running a little on empty, this is where Djokovic's slightly less impressive 2012 may actually help him going into RG. He's never made the final here but doesn't mean he never will, although the pressure on him this fortnight could be a tricky burden to carry. But if we're looking for players that can stop Nadal on clay at the moment, there really is only one man and that's Djokovic.

John Isner @ 390
Immediate instinct in this draw was to look for the weakest quarter, which of course is Murray's. Players in this quarter that you'd imagine will be contenders to make semis include Murray, Ferrer, Dolgopolov, Gasquet and my pick Isner. His European clay form hasn't been too impressive, but i'm not going to read too much into that. One thing i've learnt about Isner over the last year or two is that he's become one of the genuine big-game players on the tour that's not afraid to step up against the big boys. He's beaten Djokovic and Federer, the latter on clay, and took Nadal to 5 last year. Ironically it's Murray that he's generally struggled against most of the top-4 and he's in his section, but too many doubts about Murray at the moment, I think in such a big summer this tournament comes quite low on his priority-list. Ferrer as usual has been a good BO3 claycourter this Spring, but as usual he'll flatter to deceive in the big one. Was tempted by Dolgopolov but don't quite trust his consistency at the moment to come through that tough section. Goes without saying that if Isner's making the semis then i'd green out against Nadal, but I think this price is big enough to have a play with.

Had a brief look through some of the 1000 shots but really nothing stands out, though i'm sure one or two will make R4 at least.

If anyone has any good WTA picks they'd be appreciated ? GL.
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Report jsimpson67. May 26, 2012 11:33 PM BST
Think Nadal could be anywhere between 1.35 and 1.65 in a final vs Djoko. Suppose bang in the middle at 1.5 is the most likely SP.

Isner has been beyond awful in his last 2 tournaments with his losses to Seppi and Davydenko. Looks like he's regressed, but that of course would be a naive thought. Still, his execution and tactics have been shocking but as you say he's a big time player so you never know. GL anyway.

It's an awful draw if you ask me, am just on magro at 320av. Absolutely superb vs Simon and Baker in Nice and should really make quarters where he'd obviously face Nadal.

Ferrer at 70s would appeal, but not 50s. And personally writing off Del Potro, Berdych and Murray for various reasons.

Djok vs Fed
Ferrer vs Nadal

Cry
Report Jason Bourne May 26, 2012 11:44 PM BST
I watched Almagro today and was impressed, but questions have to be asked as to why he doesn't bring it in Paris ? Last year was the same, and a baffling loss to Kubot followed.

Last few years i've tended to look to Dusseldorf for good form players; Troicki last year, Soderling a coupla years ago, Berdych ... one I liked this week was Tipsarevic, he's hitting the ball as well as i've ever seen him, but landed in the wrong quarter, can't touch Nadal.
Report jsimpson67. May 26, 2012 11:52 PM BST
I'm not so sure about Tips on clay as don't think he moves too well on it really. But Paris will suit him more than Rome of Dusseldorf did. Wawrinka showed up his limitations on the surface, Kohlschreiber should have done but is and played like a tit, and Berdych can't as he hasn't got the variation.

Not sure on Almagro, places too much emphasis on 250 events that's for sure. He's taking his aggression to a new level on this surface, and on his day can trouble anyone I think. Will probably let down though.
Report Jason Bourne May 26, 2012 11:55 PM BST
Where do you think Murray's tournament ends ?
Report jsimpson67. May 27, 2012 12:01 AM BST
Anywhere between 4th round - sf. Not exactly a bold prediction but I suppose depends how the draw pans out. God knows how bad his back actually is but assuming it's reasonable he surely can't lose to Nieminen/Andreev or Tomic in the 3rd round.

Gasquet of course could beat him in 4th round, Dolgopolov not so sure. Ferrer would do in quarters I'd think, Isner perhaps. All a guessing game really. It wouldn't surprise me to see him make semis and unless something happened to Nadal I don't see how you make a case for him there. Could be trading at 28s in semis.
Report The Bhoys May 27, 2012 12:01 AM BST
pretty much at start.
Report HARRY22 May 27, 2012 12:20 AM BST
Do you not fancy the 6/4 ferrer simpson?
Report jsimpson67. May 27, 2012 12:26 AM BST
Nah price doesn't interest me there but worthy solid fave for that quarter.

Tsonga at 25s earlier was better value for 1st quarter if you ask me. Pretty much in the 4th round, Wawrinka/Simon followed by Djok 25/1? Prob not quite that big. Anyway, best price is 18s now which is more realistic.
Report Jason Bourne May 27, 2012 12:26 AM BST
I slightly favour Gasquet over Dolgopolov in that section, and maybe against Murray too. Think he's old enough and low enough these days to not have the old expectations of the home crowd which really has affected him here before. Ran into Djokovic in R4 last year of course.
Report ;[p May 27, 2012 1:15 AM BST
ferrer has a  good record against players in this section and even against murray he should have an edge over him taking form of both into account and the surface.
but also think isner can push there,he is on and off recently but in best of 5 format he is tough to beat as he can suddenly switch on  and play hard to opponent game turning match around also his serve will always keep him in the play but he would need to beat

ferrer who has good record against him also, i think it can be between those two at the one  end,and murray probably against gasquet on other hand, if he came through he would have ferrer i would say .he clearly struggles physically so after couple of 3 setters and tough match against gasko ferrer may grind him out

so isner or ferrer for me but probably ferrer
Report Layton_Knewit May 27, 2012 6:36 AM BST
^ +1
Report bb66 May 27, 2012 9:11 AM BST
as for WTA I've layed Pav, Lisicki, CSN and Wickmayer before the draw, some prices have almost doubled since then, so I've backed back partially but will lay again if they make rds 2,3,or 4
Report HARRY22 May 27, 2012 12:42 PM BST
Isner playing way below his best lately...no chance.
Report Jason Bourne May 27, 2012 9:30 PM BST
Oh OK, that convinces me once and for all that Isner won't be winning the title. What was I thinking !!!
Report HARRY22 May 28, 2012 6:47 AM BST
I think you are the only one who took that as isner has no chance of winning the title when it is obvious the discussion was all about the chances of winning this 1/4...i will say it again just for the spaz...NO CHANCE Cool
Report emiliano May 28, 2012 7:07 AM BST
Hi there!! Isner can only win an atp250 (In huston he missed the final against monaco),Nadal in 2012 is in a very good shape , as everybody says only djokovic might stop him... The only player out of those two players with little chances to win with a very juicy quote is federer , but i wont back on him either...
Report Jason Bourne May 28, 2012 4:20 PM BST
Very mature as ever harry, bless you !
Report brucewayne May 28, 2012 4:38 PM BST
I have invested heavily in Nadal a few weeks back at 1.85/6 and expect him to win but I do feel that Novak's price is far too high considering it's a two horse race (More or less)! He will defo come in from that in the next couple of rounds when people realise his inflated price!
Report Jason Bourne May 28, 2012 5:04 PM BST
Think he briefly touched favouritism somewhere in the first week last year when Nadal was struggling against the likes of Isner and Andujar. Not convinced his level has diminished that much of Nadal's improved that much to warrant these prices right now.
Report brucewayne May 28, 2012 5:15 PM BST
Completely agree Novak is defo the value with the way the market currently lies!
Report jsimpson67. May 28, 2012 11:41 PM BST
Isner looked more focused and confident/aggressive from baseline today. Guy couldn't handle his serve at all though. Your 390 looks alright really, PHM next so that should be easy, Granollers in 3rd round will be tricky but should win. All in all should be fresh going into the 2nd week.
Report ;[p May 29, 2012 2:10 AM BST
isners "form' in last month is misleading, he took all of those tournaments as a practise routine and even more, he was focusing on his preparations off match practise  as i heard on tweeter garbage long time ago.after match with federer and fact he got  so close to the finnals event in december london he pushes for reall glory and also taking into account his performances on clay last yr and first round failure in rg its already puts him on good position to score some extra points if he carry on at least to next round but more likely to at least 4th round
Report owning May 29, 2012 6:03 AM BST
Fully agree that Djokovic is the "value" on the outright market if you are looking for one. Price a tad high purely due to the fact that he's gonna face fed in the semis, someone who beat him here at this stage last year. This time round, I fully expect djoko to progress to the finals. That said, its really hard to see him winning this at the first time of asking. Fed can give him some advice and opinions regarding this. This is assuming he meets nadal in the finals
Report Jason Bourne May 29, 2012 8:16 PM BST
What does Serena's loss do to the women's market, who's very backable now ?
Report ;[p May 30, 2012 12:26 AM BST
looks like azarenka price didnt changed,all rest fav like lina masha of course ,stosur dropped but azarenka is still same,i know she has shaky start and looks like lost her confidence a bit but still she should be the fav to win this imao

she has an edge over li, over stosur and over masha,sharapova beat her last time but dont think it would be as easy in slam final

but yes she may not get to the final as she looks vulnereable a bit but everyone started to underestimating her  too much
Report ;[p May 30, 2012 12:30 AM BST
kvitova dropped as well,she is about 15 she looked good today,people forgot about her
Report yyyy May 30, 2012 3:45 AM BST
Djokovic price goes up?????????? Now 4.6?
Anyone got it? I didn't. Is that mean that he is not on drugs? Jelena is leaving him with his best friend??????

There must be something, FFS?!!?...somethin that entire market knows and I don't!
Report yyyy May 30, 2012 3:48 AM BST
Federer potential s/f cannot be the reason. Because Djokovic is the favourite there. Nadal yes, but still 4.6???is "c'mon get real" price. Somebody has to take 3 sets from him...He IS the world #1.
Report Platini May 30, 2012 12:04 PM BST
The price is crazy and anyone who managed to get on at 4.7 is in a fantastic trading position. Sadly I lumped on at 3.40 ages ago, so I've got a long wait now till I can get any green.
Report HARRY22 May 30, 2012 12:37 PM BST
;[p
30 May 12 00:30 Joined: 03 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 13,958 | Blogger: ;[p's blog
kvitova dropped as well,she is about 15 she looked good today,people forgot about her

5s a few weeks ago wasnt she Shocked
Report HARRY22 May 31, 2012 8:11 PM BST
well well well
Report hejik May 31, 2012 10:17 PM BST
kvitova doesn't win a slam on clay, she'll fall tamely to first big player she faces.

Only player left in who can stop Sharapova in current form on dirt is Stosur and she's playing into some fine form. her particular serve is a substantial weapon on clay because of the way it naturally forces the opposition to play the serve game completely dominated from the start of each point

Maria owns her completely at any other time but she's the only one that can best the Russian in current form
Report ;[p May 31, 2012 10:22 PM BST
Sharapova its not that strong . There is number of players who can beat her she isnt adaptable and does not have plan b but of course she can win it.bur for me isnt  overwhelming fav here.
Report HARRY22 May 31, 2012 10:28 PM BST
Li Na could beat her without doubt..li na looks the only player who can stop her from making the final.
Report The Bhoys May 31, 2012 10:30 PM BST
li is looking well good. altho aint really played anyone yet
Report chilipepper May 31, 2012 10:36 PM BST
Nobody played anyone yet. You can't win a GS in the early rounds but you can lose it Grin
Report ;[p May 31, 2012 10:40 PM BST
Those courts are perfect for li encounter wiht sharapova its 50-50 affair.shevis reigning champ and will have great support. If only can keep her head straight she will trouble masha for sure
Report hejik May 31, 2012 10:44 PM BST
Sharapova is in the form of her life the last 10 days

i'll give you Li being in form at the right time but this is a different maria than last year
Report ;[p May 31, 2012 10:49 PM BST
Lol last 10 days she barely played.have you included rome final in this 10 days?
Report hejik June 1, 2012 7:01 AM BST
you know what I mean cretin
Report yyyy June 1, 2012 1:34 PM BST
Eevery tme Djokovic wins the match, the price on him goes up!??
CryLaughLaugh

Is this how the exchange market works? Hoping somebody will pay heavily because of this latter?! Devil
Report Platini June 1, 2012 2:32 PM BST
just keep topping up if you have funds.
Report Help2 June 1, 2012 6:41 PM BST
looking more like Djok-Fed and Nadal-MurrayLaugh

i want a changeSilly
Report Platini June 1, 2012 6:56 PM BST
Murray won't get near the semi.
Report HARRY22 June 1, 2012 7:00 PM BST
murray should go home now along with isner
Report Help2 June 1, 2012 7:06 PM BST

Jun 1, 2012 -- 6:56PM, Platini wrote:


Murray won't get near the semi.


why not? well maybe Ferrer can knock him out, i do not know..Excited

Report HARRY22 June 1, 2012 7:16 PM BST
ferrer would kill him...
Report jsimpson67. June 1, 2012 7:51 PM BST
Backed Djoko 4.7 as well now. Finally feel may see his price tumble a little bit now with the way this half of the draw may work out.

Seppi is better than verdasco next with the hth record obviously (two long five setters also). Fed is hardly hitting top gear here Plain, sets dropped to Ungur and Mahut (on clay Shocked) is hardly title or djokovic/rafa troubling form.

Tsonga didn't exactly set the world alight today, Wawrinka played a long 5 set match (trainer on) and will have another long one vs tsonga. Berdych/Del Potro have played a lot of tennis the past month and both have had the trainer on this tournament and have niggling injuries. They will probably play a long match, the winner won't exactly brush aside Fed.

Easy for Djok right now, hitting it clean.

Is Seppi / Tsonga or Wawa / an average Fed or a tired Berdych / Del Potro that much harder than:

Raonic / Almagro / Ferrer. I guess it is a bit, but as much as the prices indicate.
Report jsimpson67. June 1, 2012 7:52 PM BST
not* as much as the prices indicate.
Report HARRY22 June 1, 2012 8:16 PM BST
i took the 11/10 nadal/novak final.  couldnt see any other final
Report HARRY22 June 1, 2012 8:22 PM BST
what price would you make novak with an easy route to the final with not too much energy wasted? v rafa obviously
Report jsimpson67. June 1, 2012 8:28 PM BST
I'd have Nadal at something like 1.57 probably if that were the case, with djoko at 2.76.
Report The Bhoys June 1, 2012 8:32 PM BST
ferrer would malicate murray fit never mind injured
Report HARRY22 June 1, 2012 8:40 PM BST
i would back ferrer v murray on any surface right now..dont see novak losing before the final
Report jsimpson67. June 1, 2012 8:50 PM BST
Think mugro still a threat in bottom half. Hopefully Raonic beats monaco which he should, as much more of a threat to Nadal.

Seppi / Tsonga is much easier than Raonic / Mugro Plain
Report HARRY22 June 1, 2012 8:56 PM BST
raonic monaco very difficult to call
Report jsimpson67. June 1, 2012 8:59 PM BST
i think raonic is a worthy favorite and a decent price at 1.95. court 2 is pretty quick, certainly quicker than chatrier/lenglen.

RG pretty quick in general of course. better mentality too, plus rosol had some chances vs monaco in 1st set to hit through him.

Even though it was an exho, tsonga showed what was possible vs monaco on a quick paced clay court.
Report Jason Bourne June 4, 2012 3:18 PM BST
stringerbell, where are you ...
Report HARRY22 June 6, 2012 9:06 PM BST
6/4 ferrer landed with only 1 set dropped...easy money Cool
Report HARRY22 June 6, 2012 9:23 PM BST
no surprise really. they were all favs to win quarters
Report jsimpson67. June 6, 2012 9:28 PM BST
yep wow is a bit excessive to be fair Laugh, considering they were all favourites to win their quarter.

but i do like some of posts in this thread, not some other ones though Plain


Tsonga at 25s earlier was better value for 1st quarter if you ask me. Pretty much in the 4th round, Wawrinka/Simon followed by Djok 25/1? Prob not quite that big. Anyway, best price is 18s now which is more realistic.

unlucky with that one, 25s was definitely value considering round by round price and price he traded vs djok
Report HARRY22 June 6, 2012 9:30 PM BST
tsonga was a good pick tbh...so i suppose the 4 favs were lucky to make it to the semis...novak with that net point saved his arse..great anticipation...so yes 25/1 excellent tip.
Report jsimpson67. June 6, 2012 9:33 PM BST
it was a good price yeah. thought he played the best match of his year vs del potro in rome, improved on that in that quarter final here and had an easy draw to 4th round. prefer watching him on clay to other surfaces but hopefully he creates another upset and wimbledon, makes it more interesting than big 4 really
Report HARRY22 June 6, 2012 9:35 PM BST
Did delpotro not throw that match or was he trying...refuse to believe del would be thrashed off tsonga on clay.
Report jsimpson67. June 6, 2012 9:39 PM BST
i was just very impressed with tsonga but del potro did when down a set and break yeah. improved his clay court game massively over the last few years. wimbledon outrights should be more interesting than this years french, but generally outright betting on slams these days is terrible
Report incaseof June 6, 2012 9:40 PM BST
Wonga should use that heavy topspin fh more on hard court, really impressed by his development on clay 2012.

I can't see another Nadull vs Novak GS final, and I can't take another Fed loss vs Nadal...bamos Ferrer! Cry
Report jsimpson67. June 6, 2012 9:52 PM BST
Top 3/4 dominance in these slams is getting tedious now yeah
Report stringerbell June 6, 2012 11:30 PM BST
gentlemen....
Report yyyy June 7, 2012 12:57 AM BST
fERRER the new RG champion!

Time for the guy 1.76m to win the Slam. Vamos Ferrer!!
Report ;[p June 7, 2012 1:00 AM BST
I wish but wont happen
Report yyyy June 7, 2012 1:20 AM BST
why not?

Here: Ferrer surprisesd Nadal in set 1, and then plays 2 TB against Nadal and wins all two of them.

Victory there!

Then in the final he gets absolutely tired and spent Federer, who after 6 hour battle against Djoker, barely can breathe!!

Ferrer the runner of the Tour, outrun Federer and wore him out in 5 sets!!

Ferrer the titlist!
Impossible? think again.
Report yyyy June 7, 2012 1:22 AM BST
DevilLaugh
Report bettowin8888 June 7, 2012 6:36 AM BST
or nadal thrashes him 6-3 6-2 6-3....who knows??
Report stringerbell June 7, 2012 7:18 AM BST
jason bourne, jsimpson, even harry, how are you guys.....

not been betting since serenagate last aeptember, but hope you're all well

extremely tempted to get re-involved for very very big nadal bet for wimbledon..

think djok is overpriced this tournament, and think he will beat fed and the 5.2 will have looked v big, but nadal looks extremely awesome and i am so so impressed with the way he has responded to djokovic by improving his game again...the guy's incredible. i could see nadal coming through a tough final against djoker

and i actually think shara is vulnerable in the womens....stosur is the one for me...

how are you all doing...
Report HARRY22 June 7, 2012 9:20 AM BST
'even harry' ffs...all them hours we spent together arguing Wink  Hows things bro?  I thought omar little had taken you out Shocked

I was thinking at the start of the week if you had backed stosur again..you sucked me in last year and she flopped badly...under the radar all week really but looking good...balls deep on sharapova for the last 6 weeks so had a saver on stosur at 8/1 when aza was in trouble. I will be glad when the french is finished,rubbish 2 weeks tennis imo.
Report stringerbell June 7, 2012 12:18 PM BST
hi harry, hope you're well. 16s on shara and 8s on stosur? you're looking good...

not involved myself, havent been since last us open...and didnt have strong pre tournament views on this apart from evens a nadal djok final...which was one point away from losing anyway

but watching stosur all fortnight she looks all over the one to be on. i really fancied her last year as you know and she played like royal **** in losing to dulko. think i am going to be a year out. would strongly fancy her to beat errani and a match with shara will be v tight.

nadal for wimbledon bet of the year for me at 3s...though like germany for euros

and v v excited about tennis at olympics, they'll all really want to win it and over 3 sets on grass anything can happen..
Report jsimpson67. June 7, 2012 12:42 PM BST
hi nick all is well and hope you are too, and recovered after that us open final.

a month or two back i thought fed was a cracking price at 4s with his best form for 6months but that seems to have dropped off a notch or two since rome. nadal certainly looks a good thing at the moment and think the winner will come from one of those 2. berdych and tsonga are still pushing though, could be an exciting tourny.
Report HARRY22 June 7, 2012 9:05 PM BST
Get yourself back in the game nick...Stosur back to her normal choking self when she is expected to win.

Been playing up sharapova for weeks nick...as for the olympics i have to go with serena back on the grass...not really an exciting pick...radwanska as my outsider for wimbledon.

Simpson was that you backing ferrer at 1.08 to make the final  Wink
Report jsimpson67. June 8, 2012 7:21 PM BST
Think Nadal could be anywhere between 1.35 and 1.65 in a final vs Djoko.

well i was wrong Plain. Ferrer was utterly rubbish harry, as was fed. Poor semis, hope for a good final on sunday.
Report HARRY22 June 8, 2012 7:32 PM BST
well that was the final i wanted..novak was 2/1 to be the losing finalist..not a bad bet if you got on.

Yes both matches were complete rubbish..the whole tournament has been crap as i expected...worst slam of the year and i am glad we are near the end...it has been good for punting on outrights and special bets but for viewing as dull as you can get.bring on wimbers.
Report jsimpson67. June 8, 2012 7:36 PM BST
sure many would disagree with you about 'good for punting on outrights' Laugh

only one man has come in all tournament with everyone else drifting pretty much, but it looks completely justified. pretty boring from an outright perspective, a bit like all mens grand slam events are thesedays, with the french open in 09 as the anomalie when nadal crashed out in the 4th round. 

only tsonga vs djokovic was worth watching really.
Report HARRY22 June 8, 2012 7:40 PM BST
well i got on early with some of mine..nadal novak final...david ferrer at 6/4 for the quarter...sharapova making the final very pleasing...too slow off the mark to take the evens 10/11 nadal..by the time i convinced myself he was nailed on he was way too short.

Is rafa down for queens?
Report jsimpson67. June 8, 2012 7:43 PM BST
No, not happy with the tax laws on prize money so is playing Halle. make what you want of that Plain.

Fed Rafa in Halle will be interesting though, berdych there too.

Queens has a **** entry, del potro pulled out, so has fish, and wawrinka, and gasquet perhaps too? (not sure on that one)
Report ;[p June 8, 2012 7:48 PM BST
**** so what do you expect people its not a circus for fu ck sake.go and watch some macca with wooden stick on youtube

It was/is great tournament,always some disappointment moments but great tennis and results overall
Thanks players
Report HARRY22 June 8, 2012 7:50 PM BST
federer and nadal at halle..nice.. bring on the final.any other big names playing halle?

What do you think of nadal v novak sunday..a  lot has been made of how novak backhand has caused rafa big problems last year...last few times on clay it didnt cause rafa any problems at all..it actually looked very weak with little penetration.
Report HARRY22 June 8, 2012 7:52 PM BST
didnt see the berdych...{p are you talking about the last 2 weeks tennis?
Report HARRY22 June 8, 2012 7:54 PM BST
name 3 matches that have been good viewing?
Report jsimpson67. June 8, 2012 8:13 PM BST
I don't know, didn't think rafa was particularly good in that rome final. Novak played a really dumb match from a tactical perspective as i think he had more than enough to win that 1st set there. then the frustration was too much in the 2nd. Monte Carlo you can probably write off because of Djoks state of mind with his grand-fathers death.

You can't discount the previous 3 finals they've played in the slams, or all the matches last year either.

But having said that Rafa did look pretty awesome today, albeit against a below par ferrer and Djokovic looked ineffective against Tsonga for the majority of that match. There's no real question into who's looked better in this tournament.

Do think Nadal will win, but perhaps he's slightly short. If it were up to me I'd probably say 1.44 on him. Maybe a decent lay to start with because for the first 5 games vs Almagro, and the first 4 vs Ferrer, it looked like he had forgotten how to play tennis tbh, two really slow starts.
Report Jason Bourne June 8, 2012 8:19 PM BST
Niiiiiico Excited I was reading through last year's thread and saw your posts with the name stringerbell by them, so guessed you'd changed names ... good to see you back ! How's tricks ?
Report stringerbell June 14, 2012 12:27 PM BST
hi jb, i am fine thanks mate, not been punting since serenagate in new york...but may come out of retirement for massive nadal bet for wimbledon.

also think berdych is overpriced for halle at 11/2 -

but generally all good with me ta, what about you?
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