T-BIRD will trash Verdasco

And what about the 1 in 6 matches in which the odds never increase from the starting odds?

Soa touched a great point there.. .I'm curious to read value hunters answers here...

obviously you can't answer: you have to select well

what was bedych SP?

problem is it's extremely difficult to get a whole streak of correct ticks and when you don't get them you lose out a lot more than any gains (what i've found anyway)

1.39

jcy a logn streak of correct picks or ticks?

May 11, 2012 -- 9:33AM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

And what about the 1 in 6 matches in which the odds never increase from the starting odds?

? Who cares about whether starting odds increase or not? Explain.

thanks ricky

1% of of anything that is in the bank and that varies enormously

Most books are not interested in really taking a side. The bookmakers' job is more often than not to decide what the broad betting public wants, i.e split the money. Ideally 50-50 if the odds on both players/teams are evens, 66.6% of the money if one side is 1.5, 33.3% then on the 3 etc.

That does not always mean that the oddsmakers makes the odds the way they think would reflect the real probability. There are public darlings, well hidden injury news that most people don't know about, a slump that has not gotten through to everybody...all kinda things.

That's why there can be value. Mind you, I just lump on (almost) every favourite I come across and pray to the Lord.

why thanks? nothing mate

May 11, 2012 -- 9:34AM, jcy wrote:

problem is it's extremely difficult to get a whole streak of correct ticks and when you don't get them you lose out a lot more than any gains (what i've found anyway)

Incorrect. You don't understand the approach. It is not trading, it is position taking.

hi, nice game!

edy you are right... they manage financial risks... not the event itself... that's obvious... but are you really able to find out value there?

I think Marin backs and then waits for a couple ticks and then trade out leaving a one sided green.. is it right?

Marin, the numbers you talk show no error, I can't buy that cause that's not real.

You were talking about value in the prematch odds. Either you trade pre-match which is very difficult to guess correctly. Or you bet and see if the odds go one way or another during the match. If 1 in 6 matches, the favourite's odds don't increase, then you must be either selecting favourites and getting those 1 in 6 every time, or selecting underdogs and avoiding those, or selecting a combination and managing to ensure your profit is from a selection of matches which outweighs any negatives from those - neither of which sounds plausible over the long term - particularly as when you check a graph of odds against match results, in ATP particularly, the probability of the win for the favourite is, with the exception of 1.4s range, almost exactly in line with the odds line.

It's key to be profitable anywhere to control the stakes and the most important thing ever is to control the losses, because you will get these, as everyone does.

May 11, 2012 -- 9:39AM, rickysomas1 wrote:

I think Marin backs and then waits for a couple ticks and then trade out leaving a one sided green.. is it right?

No.

I think Marin simply meant an advantage compared to the real probability. No trading or any other nonsense. No hoping the odds will go higher.

but then you are trying to outguess the market, consistently.

Can I tell you how I trade?

I didn't get you then Marin.... you talk about ticks...

May 11, 2012 -- 9:42AM, edy wrote:

I think Marin simply meant an advantage compared to the real probability. No trading or any other nonsense. No hoping the odds will go higher.

Exactly, finally someone got it.

I'm sorry to read that, it's quite hard to make money on tennis based just on probability, even if you get an advantage over real probability.

Verdasco has seemed completely unable to change his tactics in this match. Buffoon of a player.

yes but how can you find that advantage? We go back to naive stuff then.... Do you really think you know something about an event that the rest of the world doesn't?

Aggie leading

Actually many times market builders have that advantage over gamblers because they know more. So, what you can think is your advantage is something you don't know.

SoA how is it hard to "outguess" (no guessing involved actually) a market? Markets fluctuate for a number of reasons which have nothing to do with reality of the match.

The only danger is an injury to one of the players which is not known before you take position. But in the long term you can eat those up too (not that many ticks lost in this way).

But they fluctuate around a starting point, so the swing from that point has already been selected by the market odds in advance.

nice forehand

Maulication going on here :D

verdy such a **** :) easy money berdych thanks

traded 500  (me)

great forehand

Marin I simply don't agree with that... maybe cause I'm not able to do what you do... but I really can't believe you can see something the market doesn't...

I think we all agree that Fernando is un hijo di puta.

set betting was a goldmine here

LOOL GOGO 500/1 ,

all of us not agreeing is the core of betfair...so, respect

yes of course

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

Is Djokovic match after this or do we have to wait yet another hour?

not before 7pm

2 hours I think...

really porr scheduling isn't it

7pm CET, that's 6pm if you in UK

poor

GOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

people work on fridays in spain, you have to wait for them to fill the stadium

May 11, 2012 -- 9:47AM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

But they fluctuate around a starting point, so the swing from that point has already been selected by the market odds in advance.

I don't understand what you mean.

There are 2 kinds of starting odds:
1. starting odds posted by Pinnacle
2. starting odds when markets go in play

Those under 2. are perfect on average.
Those under 1. are not even close to perfect.

Difference between the two on average are around 12 ticks. I take 5 out of those 12 on only some matches.

Which part is difficult to grasp?

5-2.... time for lay 1.01

http://www.sportlemon.tv/v-4/0/62/v-406286.html there's Aggie playing here if you want...

haha nearly 0-40

ZZzz

GREAT FIGHT VERD

Marin you back once the market is opened and trade out just before the match? that's the only thing I can get from there maybe I'm retarted...

a whole match without a break point for Verdasco again?

Marin, you get those 5 ticks always in your favour? 100% of the times?

ricky - Well then you are retarded, what can I do but agree (kidding)

Give me one reason why to bother trading out.

APPALLING PERFORMANCE. Verdasci is garbage

oh it's ok so you back today the matches for tomorrow for example... right? and you get way better odds?

May 11, 2012 -- 9:53AM, asdasf wrote:

Marin, you get those 5 ticks always in your favour? 100% of the times?

No, this is average advantage I have according to long term results. Hard to know match-by-match where the advantage is. This is long term grinding strategy.

Marin is bacccccckkkkkkkking a selection if he thinks the odds are good value (real probability (or what he thinks is the real probability) is bigger than the odds suggest). Not trading out, not getting 5 ticks or % or whatever in his favour every match...

Ok, that makes sense, so what's your stop loss? In thicks

ticks*

If you had my tennis scheme strategy you would make the equivalent of 3% profit on every tennis match.

May 11, 2012 -- 9:54AM, edy wrote:

Marin is bacccccckkkkkkkking a selection if he thinks the odds are good value (real probability (or what he thinks is the real probability) is bigger than the odds suggest). Not trading out, not getting 5 ticks or % or whatever in his favour every match...

edy is getting it perfectly

Ah, ok, he doesn't trade out...got it, cheers

I get it too now... but that's naive imo...

so he is doing what we were saying he was originally, outguessing the market.

Outanalyzing, guessing is for idiots.

If he gets it right long-term, surely he is outsmarting the market, right?

every bet is a guess.

what's the liquidty on a Federer match a day before the "kick off"?

except if it follows the tennis scheme of course

SoA you love stats, frankly I though you would be the 1st to understand and actually I though you are doing pretty much the same thing.

Of course I have specialized in tennis while you do many sports.

even those are guesses - just calculated to beat market variations

Can we agree on there being guesses and slightly educated guesses?

May 11, 2012 -- 9:56AM, edy wrote:

If he gets it right long-term, surely he is outsmarting the market, right?

He needs to hit over 95% of correct bets to be in profit. If that's the case, yes, he is

May 11, 2012 -- 9:58AM, Srichaphan or Ancic? wrote:

even those are guesses - just calculated to beat market variations

No, that part of the comment was about when you basically said that both SPs are the same and correct. Well in that case I either do nothing or take advantage of random fluctuations (where is the downside?).

he doesn't need 95% hitting rate... why would he?

that was referring to edy's comment, marin

May 11, 2012 -- 9:58AM, asdasf wrote:

May 11, 2012 --  3:56PM, edy wrote:If he gets it right long-term, surely he is outsmarting the market, right?He needs to hit over 95% of correct bets to be in profit. If that's the case, yes, he is

Incorrect.

because he gets 5% of 1% of bank he uses as stake...you need 95% hitting rate to break even, not taking comission into account...it's more than that

May 11, 2012 -- 9:59AM, asdasf wrote:

because he gets 5% of 1% of bank he uses as stake...you need 95% hitting rate to break even, not taking comission into account...it's more than that

Incorrect.

what I dont understand is how you can select matches and say 'this player will make me a profit today' and beat the market, when the stats show that doing that with prematch odds is going to make you around zero profit per year (1.4s excepted).

no asdasf... you don't get it right...

I back Radwabnska todat prematch at 1.08 and let ir run

Marin backed her at 1.09 and let it run...

at times he maybe back her at 1.07 and I, backing prematch, got 1.08 but it happens way less often than the opposite, and that opposite favours MArin.. right Marin?

Ok, I got it wrong with the numbers, sorry about that guys.

SoA go back and read the post about two types of starting odds. You talk about the wrong ones.

Marin am I right?

May 11, 2012 -- 10:01AM, rickysomas1 wrote:

no asdasf... you don't get it right...I back Radwabnska todat prematch at 1.08 and let ir runMarin backed her at 1.09 and let it run...at times he maybe back her at 1.07 and I, backing prematch, got 1.08 but it happens way less often than the opposite, and that opposite favours MArin.. right Marin?

Yup, but for only 1 tick I would not bother really.

There is just one type of starting odds. If you are talking prematch odds in advance of the starting odds, different thing altogether.

yeah that was just cause I took out Radwanska cause hse is playing right now... but does it happen that often? How long before do you have to place your bet?

we just invented the pre-starting odds

If youre betting on market as soon as they are posted on Betfair - then you are pre-guessing the bookies. A very risky strategy I think.

SoA, I don't have time for this anymore. Those you understood, fine, those who didn't, well, why should I care?

This type of knowledge should be charged, but i am feeling generous today so what the hell. But I don't need to go into endless trolling discussions.

I dont think anyone is trolling, just trying to understand what you are doing.

haha, yes Marin, i don't understand why you care if I'm honest

SoA I agree... predict bookies is brave but dangerous... Good Luck Everybody...