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....Day 2: here we go! 
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I should get people to invest in my scheme, what do you think. I don't know anyone else on where who has devised a winning strategy. I dont think it is allowed though, to do that on Betfair.
This tanking gets my back up.. something should be done about it
Nightwatchman one thing I will say is that don't give up on tennis completely when you can't see what is happening - no streams. It's a different game entirely (I mean betting/trading it) when you can watch it. I remember a month or so ago I saw Parmentier up her game from a set and a break or more down, looked totally on top of her opponent for a game or two, and so a 1.0x lay landed with ease as she then went on to crush her opponent. Watching the matches makes a hell of a difference.
6 breaks in a row, market was well ahead of odds movements and never gave her a chance in the final set 
6 point lead Phoenix.....hope you lot didnt trade too early!
We did, because we no **** all about NBA and just saw green and took it
But you've done great with this match.
But you've done great with this match.
I do O/U on the NBA, sometimes the odds are way out from what they should be.
I hope you lot havent traded too soon ffs.....I would never say something that wasnt right....and Im happy to share my thoughts all thru this basketball season
This match like I said much earlier is the extreme of the extreme because Miami are the best....but 1.15 was always way too low against a hot Phoenix time who have won 5 straight...just imagine all the other games....there has been 1.07 on Oklahoma City a couple of weeks ago and I was sitting on a green £150 + either way by half time lol
Ive not traded yet no.....Im £245.00 on Phoenix win and minus £36.72 Miami win.....Im waiting for 2's believe it or not lol
i went for miami 1.6, small bet
going to bed now, hope u green at some point
gl
going to bed now, hope u green at some point
gl
mmmh its 64 to 63 now, do u think we'll reach the "2"??
Cheers ;[p...take care buddy, catch up with you soon...tomorrow nights Tennis corruption probably lol
We will reach the 2 only in the 4th quarter if its gonna happen.......
Not intentionally SMB anyway....and 9 out of 10 whats happened tonight happens.....only difference tonight is Miami are THE BEST team so had to trade later and odds have taken longer to rise thats all but in principal its the same most nights
What I mean is that statement implies that there are matches where you have a crystal ball and they will always go the way you say. Not taking anything away from your Miami call, but if that were the case you'd be on a beach somewhere right now!
very true smb and I make you right....I do have my crystal ball.........lol no seriously very true, my knowledge hasnt let me down lately in basketball, lets put it that way....as for the beach, i long for it....
Cracking shout on Miami, Night. Gutted i missed it, opted for the Knicks instead.
This sport bores me for trading though. I like the fast changes in odds in tennis, but at the same time the swings are still incremental, point by point, unlike football where boom one gosl and 1.5 is 3.5.
The Knicks game isnt done yet lol...stranger things have happened....in Basketball an 8 point game is nothing
Btw, I'm still in on Houston at 3.05 ... when to trade? Stake is so small I'm happy to let it run if it has any chance, though.
The good thing with Basketball is you have time....to think it through, tennis so much happens on breaks of serve and often you dont have a chance to change it back unless you stake serious money and then if it turns again your raging and face big loses....I will convert you at basketball and give you the info if you do the same for me with tennis....
Im already out with even profit on Knicks. Took them at 1.25 and traded out when they opened a 17 point lead.
Houston are doing good and anything within 6 points is good going into the last 5 mins of ANY game
That's where a good tennis trader is made, in my opinion ... knowing whether to red out, hope for a comeback or go double or quits. What I do when my player has lost the first set is what has had the biggest effect upon my profit margins.
I love how the thread about Miami tennis became a thread about Miami basketball once the tennis finished 
The other good thing with Basketball is that it starts at 11pm UK time....soon to be midnight when our clocks go forward in a weeks time so tennis is normally done....for those interested get on a tennis link here and we can do like we have tonight and talk this through.......green is the key, if we are all making then Betfair is shaking!!
Sorry Smb thats my fault man, I apologise for that but tennis really pi55ed me off so I thought Id share my Basketball money making schemes with you all :)
3's......on Miami...how gutted are you lot who traded at 1.5 lol
Lol there was no hint of being annoyed about it was there? It's just amusing that you picked the team from the same place as the tennis
http://youtu.be/IwBS6QGsH_4 (posted earlier, but what the hell )
)
Well....Phoenix had won their last 5 coming into this and are a hot team....Miami although a hot team have been winning games closely.......so at 1.15 before the start of play, you work it out.......
What I want to know is why doesn't the market factor this in and price Miami at 1.4 or something?
I followed some other guy's tip too and put a small bet on Oklahoma and they are winning. Not bad night on a sport I know nothing about. It's like whenever I follow a horse racing tip for fun (I know even less about horse racing), it always wins, but I guarantee if I tried to bet on it myself routinely I would lose.
First Row Sports......google it and you will find all the basketball links......there are at least 5 or 6 games per night from the NBA
Smb its the same for all the big pre match favourites.....they all make the same mistake thinking teams will run away with the game but they never do....whether you have to wait 10 mins or 30 to get your trade in you always (9 out of 10) get the chance....
Im still a nobody dont worry about that.....and Im not carried away by tonight because its normal for me, Ive dont this loads of times...so no big deal
But why? The market should reflect that this routinely happens, if indeed it does. If Miami were not going to win this game 5/6 times then they wouldn't be priced at 1.16.
Pre-match odds have to reflect the percentage chances of the two teams winning the game, and must ignore any trading possibilities. Otherwise you're giving away money.
i.e. Betfair markets are usually priced up pretty damned well provided there is liquidity.
same qoutes start - end ..but a lot of trouble in the far middle :D ..amazing
Like I said at the start of the post......Miami should still win the game BUT these teams always seem to go behind late on.....Im green on both and because Miami went 4.4 Im £176.80 on a Miami win and £52.73 on a Phoenix win......all for a £200 lay at 1.15 on Miami which was in effect a £30 risk lol
should taken miami for 5.. im only 100 green on both sides xD
Mar 21, 2012 -- 3:00AM, Nightwatchman wrote:
Like I said at the start of the post......Miami should still win the game BUT these teams always seem to go behind late on.....Im green on both and because Miami went 4.4 Im £176.80 on a Miami win and £52.73 on a Phoenix win......all for a £200 lay at 1.15 on Miami which was in effect a £30 risk lol
LOL. After trading this game very badly, I'm £1.37 up on either team for what was at one point a £60 liability. At least I'm up.
i was so stunned, i forgot to trade :D ..first time nba
The Betfair market at the start must guard against people with serious money who lump it all on pre match!!! Thats why the odds will always be low on a big favourite. Theyd go bust otherwise as Im sure you all appreciate so its low at the start to guard against that....after all does someone with thousands/millions sit thru a game and go thru all this? No they bet at the start or before then walk away and check whether they won later when its done
i don't like high settlet bets.. i'm a control guy, so inplay is the way
Exactly check.....we aim to earn a modest living out of this per week.....for me its £400 a week, if I get £300 then its still good so sometimes it goes good and sometimes we take risks but we need in play apart from lately on the tennis when it has fked me rotten lol
i got huge losses on tennis too today.. wta.. what should i say .. :/
Try Davydenko 1.47 tomorrow against Blake, I am shocked he is so high
Is Davy so high because he is a fixer? Or because he is still getting over his injury? Or because he is just a messer? Everytime I bet on Davydenko I end up getting fked about.....Blake isnt a bad player if he keeps his UE's down and he is in his native USA.....Get a feeling 1.47 will be more even if he ends up winning
Davy is always a risk no doubt. But he has played at an unbelievable level in some of his matches this year. Don't know what was going on against Chiudinelli, but he has rallied and matched Federer and Del Potro for parts of their matches.
Blake, meanwhile, is a player I actually really like but he's on a downward slope now. Played just one match this year and got annihilated by Sweeting.
In short, Davy is playing several classes above Blake at the moment, ignoring the strange Chiudinelli loss, and I think 1.47 is a very nice price and worth taking. If you have reservations (perhaps rightly so) just don't go massive on it (probably good advice for all Davy matches).
Anyway, those are my thoughts.
Blake, meanwhile, is a player I actually really like but he's on a downward slope now. Played just one match this year and got annihilated by Sweeting.
In short, Davy is playing several classes above Blake at the moment, ignoring the strange Chiudinelli loss, and I think 1.47 is a very nice price and worth taking. If you have reservations (perhaps rightly so) just don't go massive on it (probably good advice for all Davy matches).
Anyway, those are my thoughts.
Also, his withdrawal at Indian Wells was because of illness, not the knee injury he had about a month ago. He should be over it by now, otherwise he wouldn't have entered Miami, and flu isn't something that necessarily stops you playing well.
Davy + injury + illness = Russian + Money + Fix
Clearly no bet here...
Wooops, lol, no I hadn't. But I always check before actually putting my money on. Normally I don't have hth as a big factor unless it's recent. Let's have a look ...
And as I expected they're all from donkey's years ago. It won't stop me taking that price.
The 2009 Estoril match wouldn't dent my confidence much as two of three sets were TB. Only if, for example, the 2007, where Blake won 6-4 6-2, was in the last year, would the hth concern me enough to make me think twice about putting on the bet. I fully believe we have to go on recent form here. Davydenko looked like beating Federer for half the match a few weeks ago, but Blake got bagelled by Sweeting in his only match.
I think of the 15.00 matches Istomin and Clijsters are the most "sure" ones and maybe Belluci
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