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rickysomas1
01 Mar 12 12:39
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Date Joined: 02 Nov 04
| Topic/replies: 8,278 | Blogger: rickysomas1's blog
.......hey everybody...here starts my own Thread.....I'll just type who I'm backing: no trading, no trading, no massive bets, flat stake:

Stake each bet is 1/10 of the bank: Let's see if I'll go up or down after a long term run.... GL everybody; bet number 1 to come soon

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By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 12:41
Federer to beat Youzhny: 11 0 H2H; This 1.1 looks like a good shot to start my thread.... Yesterday Fedex played a clever match vs Lopez and he looked really focused.... Youzhny beat Fish but there was probably something wrong with Mardy in the first set cause in the second it has been a way different match...
By:
yyyy
When: 01 Mar 12 12:44
you'we wasting your time and money.
You will eventually lose on the long run. The Law of Probability.Sad

I won't be bothered reading it. I'll come back here in one month just to see how much you lost. Don't think that I hate you, and do not say that I didn't warn you. Devil

Advice: you can play this game virtually (without real staking).
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 12:47
yyyy thanks for your advises..... I'm not betting big money so I'll bet for real.... Hope you will count my winnings in a month instead of my Looses...
By:
IVILLWIN
When: 01 Mar 12 12:50
I give your bank 4 days.
By:
swebih
When: 01 Mar 12 12:55
h2h 12-0   but WARNING
By:
SIR_Bond
When: 01 Mar 12 12:57
how big is your bank?
By:
edy
When: 01 Mar 12 12:59
Best of luck riki.

but dear god, don't let this yyyy fella teach you about probability

holliwood, I disaree with that theorem. I read it...and that doesn't make sense at all. That theorem tries to knock off entire Theory of Probability.

The fact that coin can fall 50/50 is based on what? Answer this one correctly, and you'll see the flaw in the gamblers fallacy theorem.

If a coin flips 10 out of 10 in a head, then the probability that once in next 3 times will fall on tail is more than 50%. There's still no guarantee but, smart gambler can surely bet on it, and eventually won.

Simply fact that the loner one plays the bigger chances are that he is going to lose soon than when he started the winning streak, is the one from the reality. Everything else is just philosophy without ground.


hollywood85
yyyy if a coin toss comes head 50 times in a row the probability of the next toss is always 50/50
Why would it be different? Its independent from all previous results, its always 50/50
-------------------

INDEPENDENT, eh??
That's against the Law of Probability.
I have explained below that after 10 heads in a row, chances for 11th head are 0.049%.
Proven by the Law of Probability.

If this is not enough for you, sorry, go back to elementary school.


By:
swebih
When: 01 Mar 12 12:59
SIR_Bond • March 1, 2012 12:57 PM GMT
how big is your bank?

10/10 Happy
By:
edy
When: 01 Mar 12 13:00
mind you, he was fishing for sure.
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 13:00
my bank is 100 and I'm backing Fedex with 10...
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 13:01
sorry for double posting....
By:
SIR_Bond
When: 01 Mar 12 13:01
to win £1
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 13:02
SIR I'm not talking about money... talking about units ;) in the next month I won't be able to trade so I wanna punt and that's it.... here we go..... First bet starts in 10 mins...
By:
swebih
When: 01 Mar 12 13:09
RICKY

the problem is that some people have complex and only talk about money Grin

unit doesnt exist,ROI or anything else.
By:
IVILLWIN
When: 01 Mar 12 13:13
Ricky, can you remove the quotation marks from the thread title? They are unnecessary.
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 13:21
IVILLWIN I didn't understand your request sorry...can u explain it please?
By:
jjjjj
When: 01 Mar 12 13:30
    holliwood, I disaree with that theorem. I read it...and that doesn't make sense at all. That theorem tries to knock off entire Theory of Probability.

    The fact that coin can fall 50/50 is based on what? Answer this one correctly, and you'll see the flaw in the gamblers fallacy theorem.

    If a coin flips 10 out of 10 in a head, then the probability that once in next 3 times will fall on tail is more than 50%. There's still no guarantee but, smart gambler can surely bet on it, and eventually won.

    Simply fact that the loner one plays the bigger chances are that he is going to lose soon than when he started the winning streak, is the one from the reality. Everything else is just philosophy without ground.


    hollywood85
    yyyy if a coin toss comes head 50 times in a row the probability of the next toss is always 50/50
    Why would it be different? Its independent from all previous results, its always 50/50
    -------------------

    INDEPENDENT, eh??
    That's against the Law of Probability.
    I have explained below that after 10 heads in a row, chances for 11th head are 0.049%.
    Proven by the Law of Probability.

    If this is not enough for you, sorry, go back to elementary school.


lol. thats great stuff.
By:
SIR_Bond
When: 01 Mar 12 13:37
why won't you be able to trade?
By:
SIR_Bond
When: 01 Mar 12 13:38
in the future?
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 13:38
cause of work, got other things to care about...
By:
niten
When: 01 Mar 12 13:39
after 10 heads 0.049% hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
seriously?
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 13:40
for the probability discussion let me say:
to have "11 head in a row" probability is 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 and so on......

but the 11th time you through it it has the same probability to be ehad or not..... and that's 50/50..... that's it.....
By:
swebih
When: 01 Mar 12 13:41
are you talking about casinio or?  Laugh
By:
niten
When: 01 Mar 12 13:43
probability is probability, wherever you look
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 13:44
so from this we can get that Youzhny has 50% chances to win second set.... and then roger has 50% to win the match in the third.... Who's laying? Laugh
By:
swebih
When: 01 Mar 12 13:45
than give me @2 for fedex next time Wink
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 14:23
Rober made his hob...Youzhny took the cheque.....nothing weird with this one.... next bet is as clear as this one...at least I'm hoping it....

Novak to win at 1,13 10/10 ( I won't type stake anymore since it will be always the same )

Nole, world number one, he is just managing energies and people he faces these days...he is embarassing.... fast, forehand, backhand, run.... everything is better than everyone else... I do doubt his friend Janko will give him trouble today... Janko can even take a set but for the final win I can see only one name.... Novak's one.... GL
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 15:05
Another Bet here that is worth a take imo:

Lay Niemo 20 over Sela at 1,98

Sela really likes US and he'll play with no pressure today cause he is in the same tourney and in the same stage of last year... getting out today means no points loss/gain for Dudi....
A plus is given by the fact that Hard is the only surface Sela loves to play on.... Grass too but way less....
The main point is that Nieminen is not that solid player to take this match easily 20... We can maybe find out Niemo will win 62 63 but I do doubt this.... at evens this is worth a take GL
By:
IVILLWIN
When: 01 Mar 12 15:29
So you've gone from backing a 1.1 shot for 1/10th of your bankroll, to laying a 1.98 shot for 2/10s of that same bankroll.

Genius.
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 15:31
Genius are you able to read? Laugh OMG Laugh Laugh
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 15:33
it's hard you believe you cut such a poor figure to joke me! Well done man! OMG LaughLaugh
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 15:34
to believe sorry Cool
By:
IVILLWIN
When: 01 Mar 12 15:35
My mistake, you're still laying it for 1/10th? Is that right?

Even so, if that's the case it's laughable.
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 15:38
You're right now ;) I'm laying Nieminen 2 0 in set betting.... cause I don't think he is that consistent to be at evens for 2-0.... stake is flat: 10/10... GL mate Happy
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 16:50
Surprise to see Tipsy fighting in the second set.... 61 76 for Nole and that's it..... Right after Nole's MP Sela served out first set over Jarko without even facing any BP.... next bet to come in a few minutes....
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 17:03
here it is the 4th Bet of the thread...

Anderson to beat Malisse at 1,37

Xavier defeated Roddick a couple days ago yes I know.. But Andy is probably not fine yet since AO retirement vs Hewitt...and he is maybe thinking more about bigger tourneys considering he also lost to Istomin... Malisse is a bit of an headcase, he can play great or **** tennis from one game to another.... this will be the key here imo... Anderson tennis is solid from baseline and Kevin has a great serve...he doesn't hit many UEs normally... this will probably be enough to drive Malisse crazy and if the Belgian is not ona perfect day this 1.37 ( netto of commissions ) is worth a shot... GL
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 22:06
back from football trainings and glad to discover that also Kevin made his Job..... Maybe another bet for the night... let me check what's out there....
By:
rickysomas1
When: 01 Mar 12 22:49
here comes next Bet, Roddick to beat Istomin at 1,79

I missed that big lay at 1.9 so I'm on at the odd I type there... What to say about this? Betting on the name? Maybe yes... But I just can't stay out from such a long shot for a champion like Andy... Denis beat him a couple days ago but Roddick wasn't ok there probably... That's the only H2H so odds got a lot influenced by that match... I think Andy will try his best here or at least I hope it...and if he plays his best he should be a bit more favourite.... GL
By:
rickysomas1
When: 02 Mar 12 08:00
good morning people.... Happy to woke up and notice Roddick took his revenge vs Istomin.... He must have been really solid tonight...anyone saw the match? What can you tell me about it? Thanks in advance...

Next bet: Aggie to beat Hsieh at 1.09

Aggie should just be another level here... Hsieh is playing well lately but she had such an easy draw till today... I think she will cut a good figure here but like Amanmuradova did vs Aggie she just won't be enough to trouble Radwanska... Ley's hope rain doesn't bother us anymore here in Kuala Lumpur... GL
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