Tennis
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lay when 0-15 or lay at 30-30, how do you trade? I just want to know how do people trade for a few ticks 1-5 ticks...
I'm not a trader that's why I'm asking that. Want to learn how to trade tennis like I trade horses before the OFF :)
Thanks
I'm not a trader that's why I'm asking that. Want to learn how to trade tennis like I trade horses before the OFF :)
Thanks
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Replies: 31
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you can't compare trading a pre-match market with an inplay market ffs
when you do the horses pre-off you're backing your judgement about how all the other punters with their weight of money will make the market move when you bet point by point in play tennis you're just guessing who will win the point, perhaps based on the match stats to date but you can't compare the two at all imo |
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when atp always wise to be on the server imo, backing on bp's is good, wta total opposite
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point by point trading is guessing. but if you want to try it, very simple. pick the player with the momentum at that moment in time, back him at the odds available, get matched, and then put a lay order for 3-5 ticks lower. of course, it's on you to analyize the available data, the body language, the way the match is going etc, for the right time to place the bet.
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i always take the lay on the server when he is 0-30 down, i have 3 points to trade out....
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thanks a lot guys
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cant understand that zam,0-30 to 30-30 would put you in a bad position
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Wait for the market to bottom out then lay the short odds anticipating a market swing.
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I understand his point Swindon. If you lay the server at 0-30 you're in with a good chance of a break and a large market swing along with a whole new complexion to the match. For ATP only of course.
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in atp most 0-30's end up a hold easily
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depends who's serving... Federer or C.Rochus :p
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lol c rochus is wta
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yeah, its more or less what birch said. I mean, its not a strategy the 0-30 but the situation is
server is 0-30 down (of course, u cant count big servers in this point or even federer, or nadal in clay...). The market will not move a lot with a 0-15 but a 0-30 means "something can happen" so u have the next two points to think about and move: - if 15-30, market will not change a lot as still open game for the return - if 30-30 market will still be expecting what happens (but yes, at this point u are now in a red situation) but u still have the next point to: - if 30-40 market ALWAYS PANICS at bps - if 40-30 u have to make the BIG CHOICE, back big the server to recover the 0-30 lay thinking that once he holds market will love him due to this mini comeback.. or just let it ride. Of course there are a more lot of factors like the way he has saved the 0-30... but basically, the 0-30 is my favourite MOMENT to lay the server. PD: of course i didnt said that with 0-30, if he wins the next point to get 0-40 market will let u trade out even with no break :) but repeat, this isnt 100% realistic, of course... |
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Quite shocked that the "back high lay low" mantra hasn't been quoted yet! :0
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Really good chat here. Keep it going guys.
I was thinking to back the server in ATP @ 0-15 and lay in WTA and trade out at 15-15 or 0-30 for WTA |
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in wta, the best moment to lay a woman is when she is on serve after missing bps the game before. And its not a joke, with statistics im sure more than 70% woman in this situation always lose the first one or two points on serve..
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agree with zamorano. you know, zamorano, if you just stopped with the "mugs, mugs, you stupid mugs" stuff, everybody would like you, because you have very good insights into tennis trading.. :)
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Yes but how to trade every point? anyone was thinking about that? TRADER EVEY SINGLE POINT.
Example: back the server when he is 0-15? Rules: Strong server, lefthanded, etc. Lay a server: at 30a Rules: Small guy, not a fast serve, surface etc. |
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yes, I like zamorano whe he talks like that
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ffs jozo
YOU DONT HAVE 3 MINUTES TO THINK IN ALL THOSE CONDITIONS!! 0-30 can be 30a in no time... the single point trading is something almost impossible imo... 1. there are ALWAYS courtsiders who will give u not the best odds in this point by point trading 2. odds are (due to the first point) always ahead the stream so the point surely is in play when u try to back or lay 3. if u dont have a stream and only SB.. pbp trading is useless. You have to choice the "key" moment in the game and see.. |
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well, it's still guessing. becuause, even with the best returner, and a crappy server, there is always a good chance he will miss going for a winner. of course, the longer you do it, it is logical to say you become better at guessing ;)
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zamorano 08 Mar 22:20
ffs jozo YOU DONT HAVE 3 MINUTES TO THINK IN ALL THOSE CONDITIONS!! 0-30 can be 30a in no time. EXAMPLE: ISNER vS Robredo on HARD I prepare the rules before the match and stick to the rules. Isner serving 0-15 I will always back him. Robredo serving and 0-15 I will always lay him. I will go out red or green the next point. Something like that Zam |
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How much will be the profit or loss after the 1st set? :D
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i cant see that "prematch rules" jozo :(
imo u will go all red more often that green (especially if u starts the strategy with just a 0-15 ) there are some players that "Prematch" u can have ready to lay or back in some situations.. - Djokovic : he use to DF always when he had chances to break and didnt convert, so the first point of his serve is almost always a bad serve. but what u try to do is something really difficult |
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well, if you go blindly you won't do very well. this strategy would work if you picked your time according to the momentum and the current situation on the court. like zamorano said, pick key moments, even for a strategy like this. going in blindly everytime your situation apears wouldn't make you a lot of money, imo.
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no rules.. just trust your gutt
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Point by point is far too random and complicated.
The ideal time to enter a market is when the market has made an assumption the set is already over. Example: Two players start at around evens each. One player hits 1.4ish at 4-2 0-30. What will the price be on the player ahead if they go on to win the set? Not much lower than the current price, so the current price is a free speculative lay. The score can quickly become 4-4 with the price returning to evens the pair. |
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fair points birch, but what about the times when the fav does win the set, and all the traders red out send the price low, lay more? as your loathed to close at what you know are bad levels, hold your position? risking the early break and price collapse, or take a chance with a close late on in the set giving someone else an even better value lay?
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It's important you lay a price that you know isnt gonna get much lower that set. If it does go artificially low I tend to let the lay run as the market will more often than not correct itself early on in the next set.
The fact the players were evens at the start indicates they are fairly evenly matched so you'd be very unlucky not to see a higher price. If you are uncomfortable with your position you can always trade out for minimal red and look for another trading opportunity later on in the match. There are always plenty more that will arise. |
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certainly agree with the first point, when i use this all i'm looking for is a sign from the player i've backed he/she is competitive, the comeback is a bonus. the market will hold the price nicely then and your getting value
staking is all important for me here also, we've all overstaked on these bets and then been burnt by a collapse, vital not to personally i like to try and calcualate hold prices, you have to be quick before the best prices are taken, but often in matches, particualy the girls, these prices are often way out of line, obviously the downsides are dominant/love holds where your 1.85 for hold turns into 1.75 etc and you have to go red at that price. but some nice bets to be found |
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I only tend to lay the short odds. That way even if the player you are opposing holds their serve the downside is minimal. Laying a player who's serving from the start at 1.9 can leave you having to red out at 1.65ish if they hold.
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birch makes some very good points and what I think from some of the replies is that you have to get a winning trade out of a particular market.
So what if birch lays at 1.4 and the market runs away from him? He can let the red run or reduce it but it doesn't matter in the long term because as long as he has felt he has done the right thing and layed at a value to him or whoever is doing the trade , well then long term their p/l will be ok |