Anthrop\c

The way betfair set up the market, with multiple potential winners, made market making unattractive because
of the risk of announcement and getting hoovered on every winning selection.

If it had been a standard time period market like "When is the next General election", it would have seen a lot more action on all the rumours.

Public Offerings -- Anthropic IPO by X?

4 Runners    0 Winners            £287 Matched

			188.7%		126%
Anthropic IPO by Sept 30, 2026	-	1.11	10		-	-	-	£0
		£133	£3
Anthropic IPO by Oct 31, 2026	2.5	3.25	3.3		16	32	50	£224
	£5	£2	£3		£1	£1	£1
Anthropic IPO by Nov 30, 2026	1.35	1.51	1.52		2.14	2.18	6	£20
	£5	£21	£4		£3	£11	£1
Anthropic IPO by Dec 31, 2026	1.15	1.17	1.21		1.37	1.38	1.49	£42
	£5	£5	£26		£5	£16	£12

Yes, and perhaps not many people knew betfair were listing some new types of specials markets. There was a space x one as well. But that was easier in my view as Elon had a target date and space x is a much more tangible business. I thought I'd start a thread on it anyway, since there wasn't much action.

It's definitely a case of people will know more, but caveat emptor.

Reported insiders claimed that this IPO was pencilled in for October, the strong rumours are now that it's being pushed out to November.

If/when China makes a move on Taiwan, it'll have a cataclysmic effect on these US AI companies as their business model is based on Taiwan's chips.

Also, Hugely risky time for an IPO given the uncertainty of democracy surviving the Mid Terms.

My instinct is that there are possible problems stacking up and they would be going through with October if they could. So perhaps all is not rosy in the garden, if the rumours are correct and October is now off of the table.

'...the uncertainty of democracy surviving the Mid Terms'

Chortle!

Mr Orange attempted a coup on J6 remember?

If you think "democracy surviving the mid terms" is a 1.01 certainty, you're probably not very good at gambling.

In the news:

11 Sept 2026 — Donald Trump asked his supporters to “cheat like hell” during the midterms to avoid a GOP electoral wipeout


AFAIK, It was a pledge, Everyone had their right hand raised, it was a formal pledge, he made an entire "packed to the rafters" mid term republican conference pledge to cheat like hell.


why would he do that if democracy is 100% certain to survive the midterms, he obviously doesn't think it will survive the midterms?