Politics betting thread

Jenrick gone, was matched as low as 2 for next leader

Just to clarify let's just talk about odds and bets here, save the slapstick for the other section

cider will be all over you like a rash GB....

Cider I suspect can distinguish between bets and dogma, even his own :)

Yes, I'm sure he can be analytical, and can certainly add to your analysts pool of knowledge

Personally Politics comes down about same ranking as betting on water polo for me in terms of knowledge or real interest - I watch the news about every two weeks (literally) and that's often by accident. Can't stand it all really, though I do have my own political beliefs for some things. I even leave the room if the missus puts something like Question Time on, and starts saying 'this is interesting'...

But, each to their own, if you follow it I guess it's a form of specials betting in logic.

It's closer to specials than anything else. Popularity and motivation

Most of us 'Specialists' started in the bookies, losing.
Then we discovered bf, but continued losing
Then we discovered Specials, and started winning.
It's a very short and obvious step from betting on how the public will vote on SCD to betting on how they'll vote in elections, one I took years ago. Just as much volatility as Specials, but with far more liquidity. It's fantastic, do it!

It's closer to specials than anything else. Popularity and motivation

Very true, though I find the variables too wide, general and basically boring to follow personally - are there any shortcuts?

Just follow my ramps stu lol

"Prime Minister after Keir Starmer" - Labour selection, as they likely won't let Starmer fight the next election. Anybody think Angela Rayner has a chance? 3rd in the betting, I'd be surprised as she's badly tainted and they've got others to chose from.

Rayner is so low because of punters not believing the membership will accept streeting. But I think that's wrong tbh and it'll be streeting whatever

Use labour leader market though?  Removes the slight risk of starmer hanging on.

Great idea! Had some of my biggest wins in Politics. Don't get involved as much as I probably should. Looking forward to hearing some shrewd tipping

Good idea George to look between both markets.

The markets are still assuming the rank and file won't care about her dishonesty.

We used to have some fantastic Political threads, the best one ever being 'US Election 2016' (it's on page 4, with hilary matched for chunks at 1.09), and the Brexit 'EU Jimmy' one, (on page 12, remain matched for chunks at 1.06). Indeed, after never having taken any interest in politics, (they're all effers!), that '2016' thread kinda changed my life! A somewhat casual first post of mine declaring that 'The Don will romp it', lead to me thinking maybe I really should learn something about it before spewing such bombast; so, for 10 years now, I've followed US Politics closer than anyone I know, even to the extent of going to The Don's Inauguration last year, and Charlie Kirk's funeral service.

I know nothing about UK politics; (why watch the sideshow, when The Greatest Show On Earth is playing out in front of us from America? It's live, it's unscripted and it's free!), but here's some random thoughts re. betting on the US stuff

These markets are long term, with very little happening on a day-to-day basis, meaning most runners in most markets have something of a 'trading range' which, while not inviolable, is fairly predictable. For example, JD's POTUS price has been fluctating between 3.5-ish and 4.1-ish, for months, making it easy to trade to free greens.

Check out US sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, at least for a comparison of how different exchanges are pricing the same thing. Ideally though, get yourself accounts with them, as HUGE arbs are available all the time.

Likewise, keep an eye out for what other UK sites are offering; best exanple being, back in maybe 2022, smarkets had a 'Will The Don be President before 2025?' market. There was an election to be held in 2024, for which he was, from memory, about 2.7 on here but, crucially, even if he won the election, he wouldn't have been inaugurated as President until January 2025. Nevertheless, he traded at around 6.0-7.0 on smarkets, for months, with dearly departed Froggitt raiding his pension fund to lay every bit of free money that appeared with, presumably, backers confusing 'winning the election' with 'becoming President'

With so many markets, tradeable anomalies between them appear. The dems are about 1.3 to win The House in November. Since, (literally!), The Don's very Inauguration Day a year ago, they have been calling for his impeachment over numerous issues and, with them having impeached him twice last time, it's 1.01 they'll do it again, probably numerous times, over things like the Venezuelan narco boats. So, if dems are 1.3 to take The House, the impeachment price should be 1.31 or 1.32, but maybe throw in a bit in case The Don's not still POTUS for whatever reason, call it 1.35, maybe even 1.4. Yet the impeachment price is 1.83. Ok, not much money matched there yet, there will be, but this is the type of anomaly to look for

Political markets are, compared to Specials, incredibly slow moving; anyone reading the two threads I mentioned earlier will see just how slow, particularly for the in-running markets, with all the volatility of Specials, but for serious money. I came up with the 'Disbelief Theory' which explains it; none of us really care about who wins SCD or XF, we're happy to change jackpot win potential to max red in the blink of an eye, (and back again if necessary!), purely on how events are unfolding, with no real personal or emotional involvement or attachment. Not so easy for a lifelong commie to believe that The Don not only could, ever, conceivably actually win, but that he's right on the point of doing so. Thankfully, Political markets seem to be dominated by that sort, keeping the market wrong for ages, disbelief misleading them, as accepting reality would strike at their soul, make them question their innermost beliefs

Listen to the 'No Agenda' podcast; they 'deconstruct the media' giving great insight in to what's really happening, what it all means. Twice weekly, same two fellas every time for 18 years, (one of whom, Adam Curry, 'The Podfather', is generally credited with having invented podcasting), they're invariably ahead of the curve

Don't believe you're getting anything even approaching the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, from any mainstream legacy media; they're all FINNISH, with The Don, over the last 10 years, having exposed them for the FAKE NEWS that they are.

There are many 2026 midterm and 2028 markets on here, the major ones have good money matched already but, as we get closer to the events, massive amounts will be traded, so patience for now, no need to go mad, build a base, ready for the real action to get going

Can u say that again Tim

Been lots of fun with the burnham shennanegins

But sadly no betting on here.

Next pm and next labour leader not good enough for you?

Greens surely hosing up in Denton?

I think the market has got Labour & Reform prices the wrong way round.

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

7 Runners            £91,973 Matched

			103.1%		99.7%
Green	1.82	1.83	1.84		1.86	1.87	1.9	£42,229
	£20	£127	£16		£7	£66	£61
Reform	3	3.05	3.1		3.2	3.25	3.35	£34,387
	£98	£8	£135		£129	£8	£15
Labour	5.9	6	6.2		6.8	7.2	7.4	£14,500
	£8	£87	£15		£262	£19	£16
Workers Party of Britain	400	450	1000		-	-	-	£777
	£9	£4	£7
Advance UK	10	250	1000		-	-	-	£4
	£1	£1	£25
Conservative	600	610	1000		-	-	-	£37
	£1	£1	£26
Liberal Democrats	410	500	1000		-	-	-	£39
	£1	£5	£30

Someone been getting a chunk on rayner for days.  Make of that what you will.  Looks a very good time for a challenge

Think labour should be 20s for Gorton tbh

If anyone has the bank Lammy is 32 to lay next PM, 50 to back Labour lol

Been other discrepancies but that one is extreme

29 now lol.  Someone hasn't seen the labour market

Going the other way, you can look at burnham prices

The backer thinks Lammy might be settled as Pm if Starmer resigns, but that is an Interim PM at best, not official Pm

And our constitution says the Pm remains until a contest is over, see May And Boris

Been told by Ireland help desk they'll only settle pm after a contest, I have the receipts

Or of course a general election

Been told by Ireland help desk they'll only settle pm after a contest,

Hmmm,.. I'm not 100% that will hold up.



Of course it's got to be 99.99% there will be a contest

But sunak was more or less uncontested, and pretty sure they paid out.



Rules..

Who will be the next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer?

This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader after Keir Starmer, as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request.

In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Contest means either Labour contest or GE, I'm sure

Sunak was a contest for sure, albeit an easy one

The point was they won't be settling on lammy if he takes over during a leadership election

Yep, agreed on that.

I'm just so wary of info given out by
customer services etc.

At least you've got direct proof for your own
bets to fall back on if they do something stupid.

Enough for ibas then the court case lol.

All calming down now.  I wonder if ange was testing the water and didn't have enough support.

It'll ramp up again after the by election then the locals

I remember a similar thing happening with May about 6 years ago. I tried to be clever and play to the BF rules, but didn't work out

What were you trying? Although one sided there was definitely a contest

Yep May market was a farce, as rules somewhat contradicted
the heading on the market, and revolved around definition
and interpretation of resign.

Think some folk went to court, and got a settlement.

Greens shortening nicely

Comfy green win kerching

Next?

It's counter intuitive to back burnham, but I don't think it'll be long before they are asked that question again, 400 mps, that's a lot that could go any minute

1st sign of madness you know

HB fellas

Keir Starmer: "I want 10 years in No 10 and will fight my challengers"

He may want that lol.  What do we think of makerfield?

Labour too short?  Or actually the poll pretty good for them given previous bias to reform by survation?

Feb 27, 2026 -- 5:13AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Next?It's counter intuitive to back burnham, but I don't think it'll be long before they are asked that question again, 400 mps, that's a lot that could go any minute

Oh yesssh

I don't think Burnham is far off being home n hosed n that
Another terrible reform candidate, the chance to remove starmer, restore skimming off a bit. Payouts soon

Next for me, maybe Ossoff for potus

Apart from Winstanley who has no chance anyway, the candidates on QT last Thursday were truly useless - not that Burnham was great, but the others were appallingly useless by barely being able to string a coherent sentence together.

The reform candidate missed some open goals and looked like he didn't have the force of personality to make himself count in this by-election, the market probably has it right.

GeorgeBrush 04 Jun 26 23:59 
Next for me, maybe Ossoff for potus


The activism and the energy within the dems is full on woke commie, making it very hard for an, (in name only), 'moderate' to win enough primaries. The base have a checklist for candidates:

White? Not ideal, but liveable with
Male? Even worse!
Hetero? Oh no, please not!
Of that!!! religion??? NEXT!!!

Carns can fer cuff if he's thinking about delaying my payout

He's massively popular in his own head

Anybody think Reform will not win Clacton on August 13?

Not seriously but it's certainly interesting.  I see binface was ahead on a national poll :)

LOl I saw that, I think the Clactonites take themselves more seriously though (without any justification).

Farage will probably win but what a risk: he hasn't got a property in Clacton although he lied that he had bought a house there - it's his friend's and it's in Frinton; never held a constuency surgery; never attended a council meeting; hardly attends Parliament.

But he's right, nobody in Clacton seems to care.

Objectively, The two front runners are

A) A man backed by Foreign £ Billionaires, with an experienced campaign team, unlimited resources, and a TV station.

B) A man without a plan.


1.09 should be an absolute shoe in.
The only thing that can derail these Billionaires is a BoatyMcBoatFace scale social media campaign.

current strategy is to wait to see if a sizeable campaign materialises, and if it doesn't lump on reform a few days before the election.

Anyone got any better ideas?

UK - By-Election -- Clacton By Election - Winner

10 Runners            £792,988 Matched

			101.6%		98.8%
Reform UK	1.07	1.08	1.09		1.11	1.12	1.13	£670,336
	£5,365	£4,158	£6,455		£5,668	£20	£2,200
Count Binface	10	10.5	11		11.5	12	12.5	£115,845
	£138	£134	£124		£38	£132	£93
Conservatives	570	670	1000		-	-	-	£2,359
	£1	£6	£19
Restore Britain	500	540	1000		-	-	-	£2,760
	£2	£4	£23
Reclaim Party	800	810	1000		-	-	-	£149
	£1	£3	£35
Labour	310	610	1000		-	-	-	£750
	£1	£2	£27
Green Party	220	410	1000		-	-	-	£584
	£2	£1	£29
Liberal Democrats	220	580	1000		-	-	-	£42
	£2	£1	£69
Rejoin EU	4	100	1000		-	-	-	£42
	£5	£2	£45
Monster Raving Loony Party	250	600	1000		-	-	-	£122
	£5	£2	£42

Shoo in ffs. Lol

sho as in Dr Who
shoe as in shoe
shoo as in loo
shooh as in pooh
shou as in you
shew as in pew
shewe as in ewe
shu as in U
shue as in cue
shugh as in Hugh
shuw as in Huw
shiew as in view

Yes a shoo-in, giving Farage a temporary boost - even with a low turnout he should at least get a big majority of the turnout.

But then maybe a slow decline for Reform with constant revelations of sleaze for its leader (I don't care either way about his policies, just trying to work out coutcomes). Actually I think the press may have enough sleaze to go on already, for some time - most has received little coverage so far.

People don't like sleaze. I think we're at a much lower % than the usa willing to hold their nose

Bf still not paid my 4/1 over 25%. :(
No idea why

Done now. Bizarre delay though

You'd be nothing without Fig

He'd still be spraying men in the toilet of rainbow bar without me

Oh is that where you met?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9KgEs3Zksg

He was working as a waitress in a cocktail bar etc

Ok, he's from the 'wrong' religion but, apart from that, jb pritzker is a springer waiting to happen; Governor of Illinois, (the same Illinois political heavyweight machine that forced obama onto us), hugely rich where ad-buying ability is crucial, (Hyatt Hotels being the family business), very much woke (his cousin's the first tranny billionaire), so might be able to be the one to bridge the gap between the establishment dems and the insurgent dsa. Touted as a runner in 2024, pretty much guaranteed to run this time and a speech he made last week is being taken as the unofficial launching of his campaign. Just taken the bits at 100, 90 still available, STONKING VALUE!

^^^For the dem nom.

While I'm at it, in the same market, talarico is a newbie running for the Senate; he's a soy boy, veggie, green, anti guns, deeply blasphemous, woke as you like. And he's running on such exil marxism in TEXAS of all states!!! So, nfc of being a Senator let alone a contender for the nom, easy max red at 32

USA - Presidential Election 2028 -- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

35 Runners            £70,621 Matched

			97.6%		83.5%
Gavin Newsom	5.3	5.4	5.5		5.8	6.2	6.4	£32,512
	£463	£100	£5		£10	£1	£45
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	4.8	5	5.2		5.5	5.6	5.7	£9,745
	£7	£9	£10		£5	£176	£963
Jon Ossoff	5.3	5.4	5.5		6	6.2	6.4	£7,923
	£2,506	£72	£20		£8	£6	£51
Pete Buttigieg	16.5	17	17.5		19.5	20	22	£1,570
	£2	£2	£3		£20	£2	£10
Kamala Harris	17	17.5	18		18.5	19	20	£3,727
	£5	£2	£3		£84	£2	£3
Josh Shapiro	23	24	25		30	90	970	£2,688
	£15	£120	£7		£4	£201	£21
Gretchen Whitmer	44	46	80		300	460	500	£1,446
	£1	£1	£4		£1	£2	£20
Andy Beshear	20	23	25		40	42	46	£1,209
	£1	£40	£12		£4	£1	£4
Mark Kelly	26	27	30		34	36	38	£3,505
	£4	£4	£1		£2	£4	£5
Wes Moore	50	55	60		75	80	85	£1,199
	£8	£7	£3		£1	£2	£6
Ro Khanna	46	48	50		65	90	100	£384
	£1	£2	£4		£100	£3	£5
J.B. Pritzker	65	80	90		120	130	180	£821
	£4	£2	£3		£5	£2	£5
James Talarico	24	26	27		36	38	60	£2,640
	£2	£12	£1		£4	£33	£4
Rahm Emanuel	55	60	65		110	390	400	£176
	£3	£2	£5		£3	£2	£5
Michelle Obama	65	70	75		85	90	95	£265
	£1	£6	£2		£5	£12	£1
Elizabeth Warren	75	100	110		130	150	-	£192
	£2	£5	£6		£5	£2
Chris Murphy	150	160	200		280	960	970	£126
	£1	£2	£1		£3	£2	£2
Amy Klobuchar	200	300	350		900	970	980	£23
	£2	£1	£1		£2	£11	£2
Graham Platner	80	100	500		-	-	-	£50
	£1	£8	£1
Cory Booker	100	110	130		170	180	200	£58
	£1	£2	£3		£2	£1	£1
Ruben Gallego	230	240	250		-	-	-	£99
	£1	£1	£1
Gina Raimondo	400	410	500		1000	-	-	£30
	£1	£2	£1		£2
Stephen A. Smith	100	300	350		840	850	860	£41
	£6	£1	£2		£3	£5	£3
Abigail Spanberger	250	300	310		880	920	980	£15
	£1	£1	£5		£3	£3	£1
Elissa Slotkin	200	300	310		900	910	940	£8
	£4	£1	£1		£1	£2	£2
Bob Iger	44	50	500		-	-	-	£6
	£7	£11	£1
Hunter Biden	110	130	150		500	800	-	£37
	£1	£6	£5		£2	£17
Mikie Sherrill	10	400	450		930	-	-	£0
	£3	£1	£2		£3
Tim Walz	410	420	500		780	900	-	£10
	£2	£1	£1		£2	£2
Bernie Sanders	55	100	400		850	860	900	£44
	£2	£3	£1		£2	£1	£1
Jasmine Crockett	170	310	600		1000	-	-	£33
	£2	£2	£1		£2
Jamie Raskin	650	680	700		-	-	-	£8
	£1	£1	£1
Maura Healey	13.5	600	1000		-	-	-	£4
	£1	£1	£1
Chris Van Hollen	20	22	250		940	990	-	£12
	£2	£2	£11		£2	£20
Abdul El-Sayed	100	370	380		480	490	-	£13
	£5	£2	£2		£4	£4

Don't like pritzker much with ossoff around, and I'm delighted to say I'm backing talarico to beat paxton in a pure me vs Tim scenario

Ok!!!

Holborn thoughts?  I know one of our friends is all over the greens.  Not so sure myself.

If you back the Greens you will feel a bigger t!t

Over the last months, the 'Will macron resign before election' market has seen 'yes' slowly drifting as election day in six months gets closer. For about a month now, it;s been up around 18.0/20; given recent rioting by 1slam1c illegal imports, the price should have shortened considerably, so the 19.5 still available is a great value punt

The Mid-terms in two weeks have the Reps to retain House and Senate layable at 12.0, and the Reps to retain the House backable at 10.5, meaning you're, in effect, laying the dems to win the Senate at about 1.16, which you can then back at 1.58. Rinse and repeat
Alternatively/simoultaneously, lay dems clean sweep at 1.6, back them for Senate at 1.58, in effect laying Reps winning the House at about 1.03, which is then backable at 1.1

The polls schmolls have the dems winning both House and Senate but, in most races, it's only by a few points, often within the margin of error. Given their pathetically poor record, (usually reporting knowingly false, propagandistic and scam figures), it really won't take much for Reps to hold at least the Senate, quite possibly the House too, prices of 2.58 and 10.5 are great value, even if only for tradeability

timbuctooth19 Oct 26 23:58Joined: 11 Jun 12 | Topic/replies: 22,865 | Blogger: timbuctooth's blog
The Mid-terms in two weeks have the Reps to retain House and Senate layable at 12.0, and the Reps to retain the House backable at 10.5, meaning you're, in effect, laying the dems to win the Senate at about 1.16, which you can then back at 1.58. Rinse and repeat
Alternatively/simoultaneously, lay dems clean sweep at 1.6, back them for Senate at 1.58, in effect laying Reps winning the House at about 1.03, which is then backable at 1.1

Interesting. Do you have an example of figures on this?

No, afraid not. I only saw the 'Balance of Power' market a couple of days ago and, having been playing numerous mid-term markets for two years, I'm already deep enough, with not enough funds to be laying 12.0 and backing 1.10 across markets to anything worthwhile.