Christmas No.1 2025

It's not an actual problem, they won't be bothered and probably wouldn't mind losing it. Whereas Kylie and Amazon want it quite hard.

X M A S

One never knows for sure with the OCC, genuine and selective missing data. But Kylie should stay ahead of Wham today. She's well ahead of where Sam was at the same point obviously, but he got momentum from people misunderstanding the first look, and had a strong tail of downloads. No doubt Kylie is front loaded, and very unlikely to recreate those physicals through the week. It is curious though where her spike in album physicals came from at the end of last week.

TL;DR Nothing new, but I suppose confirming they are chasing it hard, and cranking up the streaming

Amazon Music's Alex Nutton talks Kylie exclusive and 'incredible experience' in Christmas chart race

Kylie Minogue is back at No.1 again in her long chart career – this time it’s the reissued Kylie Christmas album at the summit.

Originally released in 2015, peaking at No.12, the Kylie Christmas (Fully Wrapped) edition via Rhino has become her 11th UK No.1 album with opening consumption of 23,279 units (Official Charts Company), including 10,125 CDs, 9,510 vinyl albums, 1,441 cassettes, 1,057 digital downloads and 1,146 sales-equivalent streams. That puts Minogue level with David Bowie, Eminem and Rod Stewart in the league of artists with the most UK Number 1 albums.

Kylie Christmas (Fully Wrapped) also topped the vinyl chart, as well as the Official Record Store Chart, as the most popular album in UK independent record shops in the past week.

With the focus now shifting to the Christmas No.1 single, Amazon Music is aiming for a strong result with its exclusive Kylie track, XMAS, released via Parlophone in conjunction with the reissue of the expanded festive album. In the Official Charts Company's First Look chart with BBC Radio 1, Minogue's single has taken an early lead.

The single moved 24-16 last week with consumption up 25.3% at 21,946 units. While it was eclipsed by Wham!’s No.1 Last Christmas and other festive tracks, Minogue’s single is not subject to ACR as a new release which gives it a better shot at No.1. Classic Christmas songs need double the streams under chart rules to register the same volume of units as current hits by Minogue, Olivia Dean and Raye.

However, Amazon Originals are exclusive to their streaming platform – with the exception of YouTube for videos – which does place a limit on consumption. On Spotify, for example, XMAS is not included on the Kylie Christmas Fully Wrapped. Even for physical music buyers, the track is only available on limited edition Amazon exclusive.

There’s now a big push for the Amazon Original track, with limited edition vinyl and signed CD versions of XMAS and a video released on Friday (December 12). Minogue performed XMAS on BBC One’s Strictly Come Dancing on Sunday (December 14), while her Jingle Bell Ball performance from earlier this month was also televised at the weekend. 

Amazon Music is building up a stable of festive favourites with an additional Top 40 hit this week for Gwen Stefani’s Shake The Snow Globe.

The streaming giant had a strong result last year with Tom Grennan’s It Can’t Be Christmas peaking at No.3, while Sam Ryder’s 2023 song You’re Christmas To Me made No.2. Amazon did reach No.1 with Ellie Goulding’s River in 2019 although that was after the official Christmas No.1.

Here, Alex Nutton, principal, label relations at Amazon Music UK, reveals their streaming strategy for Kylie’s XMAS and how their Amazon Originals initiative has become a Christmas tradition…

Kylie Minogue's XMAS has made the Top 20 and could go much higher on the Christmas week chart. How have you achieved the chart success with this Amazon Music Original at a busy time for festive music? What initiatives and activations have helped the track to cut through?

“XMAS is featured across many of our Christmas music stations and playlists as well as other relevant editorial placements, including our Brand New Music playlist and Feeling Happy Radio, which helps to ensure maximum visibility. Strong playlisting combined with the high volume of music fans heading to Amazon Music to request XMAS, has significantly contributed to the song’s chart success to date.

“On the activation side, we collaborated closely with Kylie and her team on an exclusive fan event in London (December 12). The event gave a handful of lucky fans the chance to view the music video before anyone else, as well as an exclusive Q&A with Kylie, creating an elevated and memorable experience for her fans.”

In what ways has Kylie been able to support the track?

“Working with Kylie has been an incredible experience from day one. The track has served as the centrepiece of her latest album campaign for Kylie Christmas (Fully Wrapped), and it has been fantastic to see her speak so enthusiastically about it, including demonstrating the dance routine for XMAS across numerous radio and TV interviews. A standout moment of the campaign for me was seeing the track performed live at the Jingle Bell Ball, and the amazing reception it got from the crowds at the O2 arena.

“The official music video was released on Friday on YouTube and will be available in the Amazon Music app. Throughout the campaign Kylie has supported the track across social media posts, TV performances, radio interviews, and much more, with plenty more to come in the run up to the Christmas number one announcement.”

How did you work with the label on this release – particularly as there is now an updated edition of Kylie's Christmas album?

“Given the popularity of Christmas music with Amazon Music customers, the label was keen to work with us on this very special campaign. The moment we first heard Kylie’s XMAS we were totally blown away and couldn’t get it out of our heads. We’ve worked closely with the label to create an exclusive version of the album for Amazon customers which features XMAS, alongside all the other tracks.”

How have you built on the previous campaigns from the likes of Sam Ryder and Tom Grennan. What were the lessons from those campaigns?

“For me, the big learning is that our customers really love brand new Christmas songs, alongside their festive favourites. We've demonstrated significant investment and promotional support in commissioning new Christmas tracks these past few years and hope these will prove popular with customers for many years to come.

“The team works throughout the year on our Christmas campaigns, from identifying the right artists through to delivery, working hand-in-hand with artist, label and management teams every step of the way. We also recognise that we're only part of the success story here, ultimately we're fortunate to be working with some of the most popular artists in the world who create incredible music that resonates with music fans.”

How can you engage with fans outside the Amazon Music ecosystem to help drive chart success? How key is YouTube to the chart campaign?

“Fans can listen to the track in a number of ways, from the Amazon Music app, to watching the video on YouTube, to purchasing the CD or vinyl. Physical music continues to play an important role in chart performance, and Kylie fans can buy or pre-order a variety of exclusive album and single editions on both CD and vinyl via our retail site, as well as directly from Kylie’s artist store. On YouTube we set up a teaser counting down until the video’s release – building hype for the fanbase.

“We should also recognise the role of radio airplay in driving awareness, with Kylie’s radio promotion team securing exceptional support across all key stations. The official music video, released on Friday (December 12) in the week running up to the Christmas chart being announced, provides another important boost to the track’s chart performance.”

The track has moved into the UK airplay Top 20. What has the reaction been from radio?

“We've had a really strong reaction from radio right from the start of the campaign. The track had its first play on the BBC Radio 2 Scott Mills breakfast show upon release in November and due to the strength of the track and Kylie's brilliant promo team, we've seen incredible support across all the key stations.”

How international is the reach for Kylie's XMAS beyond the UK?

“As you’d expect the track is proving incredibly popular with our customers both inside and outside of the UK. The top five listening territories we're seeing for consumption outside of the UK in the last seven days are the US, Germany, Italy and Mexico.”

Kylie is the latest Christmas hit for Amazon, how are you helping to create festive perennials in partnership with artists?

“A great Christmas track has the power to stand the test of time. When commissioning these songs, our goal is always to create a new holiday favourite that customers will return to year after year. We have released numerous Holiday Originals over the years and we continue to support them beyond their release year, ensuring that customers can discover and enjoy these new works for many seasons to come.”

What are your hopes for a No.1 result this Christmas?

“This is right at the top of my personal Christmas wish list! But we all know it’s one of the most fiercely competitive chart weeks of the year, so we’ll all have to wait until December 19th to see!”

5 live just said Kylie is leading with Wham 2nd and the Palestinian charity record 3rd. No idea what this means though

It means wham are winning and the rest nowhere

I'm waiting for cider to tell us 

It's a post truth world don't forget

You can't handle the truth

Yep that was the 1st look. I'd be surprised if Lullaby will be 3rd or higher today, as they are practically all downloads, so 2 days and presales, whereas everything on spotify and you tube have missing data. But kworb doesn't work for iTunes anymore, so we have no extra insight.

The occ were pretty open with the declared numbers yesterday, Kylie 17K Wham 2nd, 231 in front of Lullaby. They also said Lullaby had the top sales, so we know Kylie had less than 10K physical and digital download.

An unknown for example is what was missing from Kylie's. It could all be there, but also could have missing Amazon download data, or physicals.

Insiders have access to the numbers after yesterday, the market says she's still in front, perhaps a slightly reduced lead.

I have Kylie covered for what it's worth, she's not out of it. I wouldn't say a bet now, yet.

cheers cider. I thought it was a very catchy tune, when hearing it for the 1st time last night

I might pop down woollies and buy a copy

Ha! Her team have released new digital download versions. I think they would have done it without pushing the album the week before. But it's still viable, I was reasonably surprised about her physical album sales. Must have been shifting via channels outside of Amazon.

It's pretty risky that Amazon have a blatant conflict of interest, reporting 'sales' ie streaming, and also paying an artist to try and win. Amazon is such a massive machine, but their streaming is very much a dark art.

Cider backs the wurzels every year

And still makes 10k

If only My fear was that such a tremendous betting market would be killed off like the TV one.

Now I know what a fool I've been, and if you kiss me now I know you'll fool me again

I have backed Kylie again, I think this might go to the last day. When the occ has to estimate streaming for spotify and you tube. Using a mystery algorithm.

Sam did 44K streaming alone in 2023. Now the chart week was a bit closer to Xmas then, and Xmas streaming seems a bit flatter all around. But Kylie has a bit more you tube.

If she is close, there is some motivation for the Kylie stans

Kylie stans?  Is that like southern areas of the ussr?

All over the world! But plenty in the UK

Didostans was robbed of Xmas no 1, can we fix it?

Yes we can!

K 24,242
W 17,390

5664 physical reported for Kylie (to Sunday)

probably you tube missing and one day of spotify

definitely going to the last day

the market overweights spotify these days

Wham

Monday last week 15539
Total 42470
Monday this week 17390

No way is it exact science, especially with missing data vagaries, but let's say they are 12% up. add a bit, 48K total.

Kylie added around 7K in a day. 24K + 28K = 52K total. Of course it won't be that consistent, but someone is seeing something I'm not. Perhaps on the knowledge of what data is missing.

Kylie matched at 2.42, this is getting to be a fun market

spotify yesterday for Wham was actually down vs 7th. So Wham's increases this week vs last week will be predominately from you tube and amazon. but of course, amazon helps Kylie as well. I don't anticipate spotify this week for Wham being any better than last week, until Wednesday. Then Thursday is estimated.

Kylie at #3 on Amazon's regular streaming chart. I don't recall Sam ever getting that high. I think it's on, myself.

Spotify Daily Chart - United Kingdom - 2025/12/14 | Totals

Pos    P+    Artist and Title    Days    Pk    (x?)    Streams    Streams+    7Day    7Day+    Total
1    =   
Wham! - Last Christmas
620    1    (x124)    779,097    -101,720    4,766,785    -18,955    221,819,543

That 779097 is lower than the previous week Sunday (798052). That's the spotify streaming that will get added to Wham today.

Unless you have industry only data access, the guessing part is what data is missing. Spotify is almost certainly always a day behind. Probably Apple. The tough one is you tube, when it used to be available, I've seen it as late as Tuesday to report any data at all. Which benefits Wham obviously. Kylie's you tube will be a lot lower than Wham's, but full fat.

Following trends we are looking at ballpark 620K for Wham's spotify yesterday, when it updates later today.

I see he's muscling in, on your turf now cider

Take his money, im at war on here now. Just realised this is an exchange and i must take everyones cash

That’s the way I see it Army.

Take the lot.

lol

Don't post too much data shraine, they will be after your blood next you dirty ramper

Worth flagging Google Trends (UK) alongside Spotify.

Comparing Kylie Minogue vs Wham!, Kylie is leading nationwide on search intent:
    •    Northern Ireland: 84% Kylie / 16% Wham
    •    Scotland: 81% / 19%
    •    Wales: 80% / 20%
    •    England: Majority Kylie across regions

This matters because Trends correlates more with downloads, Amazon streams and voice requests than passive Spotify autoplay. Kylie’s audience is more likely to search → buy/request, while Wham benefits from legacy playlists.

Wham still dominates Spotify, but this shows the race isn’t a formality if Kylie converts intent into sales and Amazon/Apple streams.

Google Trends tends to correlate more with downloads than streaming because it tracks active intent.
People search when they’re deciding what to buy or request, whereas Spotify streams (especially at Christmas) are largely passive playlist/autoplay.

So a song can dominate Spotify without a big search spike, but when something rises on Google Trends it often shows up next on iTunes/Amazon sales.

That’s why Trends is a useful early signal in the Xmas No.1 race.

Spotify (or whatever) playlists should be banned from the chart imo. Only individual choices of individual songs. It's crazy really.

If data is holds, Kylie hoses up!

All input welcome, army :)

We can get a flavour for the missing data impact.

Last week

Up to Monday 15539
Wednesday 28816
Friday (final) 42470

This week
Up to Monday 17390

So Wham jumped from 15539 to 28816 Mon to Wed, ie +13277. They averaged 6067 per day last week, in the additional missing data update they averaged 6638. Again, it's not an exact science, and the average per day in reality is tilted to the weekend.

Now for me the interesting part is that Kylie is already on 24242. Wham last Wednesday (2 days later) was 28816 (including the missing weekend data).

Dec 16, 2025 -- 9:55AM, Cider wrote:

All input welcome, army :)We can get a flavour for the missing data impact.Last weekUp to Monday 15539Wednesday 28816Friday (final) 42470This weekUp to Monday 17390So Wham jumped from 15539 to 28816 Mon to Wed, ie +13277. They averaged 6067 per day last week, in the additional missing data update they averaged 6638. Again, it's not an exact science, and the average per day in reality is tilted to the weekend. Now for me the interesting part is that Kylie is already on 24242. Wham last Wednesday (2 days later) was 28816 (including the missing weekend data).

That actually reinforces Kylie’s position.

Using last week’s Wham uplift makes sense, but the key point is timing: Kylie is already on 24.2k by Monday, whereas Wham only reached 28.8k by Wednesday last week after missing weekend data was added.

So Kylie is getting to comparable territory earlier in the week, which fits with sales-led and Amazon-heavy behaviour. Wham’s growth is more weekend-tilted, but there’s no obvious sign yet of a late-week surge strong enough to overturn that gap.

Race still live, but Kylie’s trajectory looks that of a leader rather than a chaser.

Good Luck cider, not sure you need it on this market though

There's no late week surge as such. I can be quite confident where Wham is going to land. Apart from obviously the OCC estimation machine for Thursday

Monday and Tuesday will be 'normal' days for Kylie as such. Front loaded physical sales already reported. Weekday streaming. And a bit of you tube. Needs to get as close to that 7k a day as possible.

Dec 16, 2025 -- 10:09AM, Cider wrote:

There's no late week surge as such. I can be quite confident where Wham is going to land. Apart from obviously the OCC estimation machine for Thursday Monday and Tuesday will be 'normal' days for Kylie as such. Front loaded physical sales already reported. Weekday streaming. And a bit of you tube. Needs to get as close to that 7k a day as possible.

I’m not convinced it’s purely front-loaded. Physicals helped early, but Kylie’s intent hasn’t dropped — Google Trends is still heavily Kylie-skewed this morning (around 80/20 nationally, 100/0 Wales), and the searches are transactional (“xmas kylie”, “kylie minogue xmas song”), which usually convert mid-week into downloads and Amazon streams.

Wham’s Spotify is huge but looks baked in rather than accelerating. Unless there’s a genuine late-week surge beyond the normal seasonal pattern, Kylie holding close to ~7k/day may be enough.

They are front loaded, 5664 in three days, it's a very long shot that will even double over the next four, even if they have been produced. Sam ran out of stock, laughably. This is the danger zone basically, whereas the old Christmas streamers don't have to chase anything. The advantage for team Kylie is that they can actively do something, if they want it enough.

I agree physicals were front-loaded, but that doesn’t mean the run is over. What matters now is whether intent drops — and it hasn’t. Kylie’s still dominating transactional searches mid-week, which is when downloads, Amazon and voice requests convert.

Wham’s strength is inevitability, but that also means little upside. Unless there’s a late-week acceleration beyond the usual seasonal pattern, Kylie doesn’t need to double — she just needs to hold.

Kylie very much in the family lane, after her appearance on strictly

Just realism, if I had to call it I think she edges it, but quite possible it comes down to the OCC's estimated figures for next Thursday's missing data. It's beyond comprehension that the OCC can't seem to get spotify to report streaming data in a timely fashion, but there you go

A source is saying that Wham only narrowed the gap by a tiny amount today. That source is a members only Kylie fan site, so make of that what you will

My member was artificially large after the tennis photos

If ladbaby can get no1 with ease then shirley
it shouldn't be too difficult for the Kylie machine.

spotify Wham 616k vs last year 661k

numbers of some use I think.

in 2024 Tom ended with 39049 and on Wed flash was 27554.

So he did 11500 for the last two days, no missing data, no physicals and probably very modest downloads. Basically just alexa and auto plays.

Kylie shot up to #14 on the UK YT music chart. Kind of an odd run, went 45, 59, 14.

Boost from strictly? X M A S, X M A S

Could be, I didn't observe that on Monday morning. Perhaps the first look #1 noise as well. YT is always a nightmare with no regional analysis any more but it was on 200k+ globally then. Now practically double.

YT streaming points aren't massive as they are mostly free, but they are all bonus points for her, whereas Wham's are factored in and she is on scr.

The estimation thing really falls down here as how can anyone accurately estimate how many views she will get today and tomorrow. A guess up.

This is from the kylie fansite. There is a reason to think they are credible, as they have reported sales for Kylie in the past when there was no betting implications. The Wham figure looks a bit low to me. But it is plausible. Of course, wealth warning with third hand info.

K 38600
W 29800

What site is that.

Kylie ensures clear search dominance across all UK nations:
    •    Wales 70–30
    •    Scotland 69–31
    •    England 63–37
    •    That’s not a single spike — it’s broad, nationwide interest, which matters late week.

What it actually implies
    •    This isn’t “panic googling” or confusion.
    •    At this stage of the week, Google Trends is much closer to:
    •    intent (downloads, purposeful plays)
    •    activation (people acting, not discovering)
    •    That aligns with Kylie’s profile right now: new behaviour being triggered, not legacy autopilot.

Relative to Wham
    •    Wham being flatter is normal — it’s a known quantity.
    •    But flat ≠ growing.
    •    Kylie winning trends late week is notable because:
    •    she needs marginal gains
    •    Wham doesn’t have another gear to shift into

Bottom line
    •    This supports the idea that Kylie’s total is still adding at the margin.
    •    It doesn’t prove she wins.
    •    But it does reinforce that she’s not fading and that the fansite numbers are at least directionally consistent with live behaviour.

664K for Wham spotify Tuesday, some positive news.

Kylie's 'cheap' vinyl on Amazon

Only 2 left in stock (more on the way).

You're ok if you want the £20 Limited Edition Zoetrope 12" Single

Dec 17, 2025 -- 2:49PM, Cider wrote:

You're ok if you want the £20 Limited Edition Zoetrope 12" Single

Cracking choon by boards of canada.  Only right it'll be Xmas no1

You reckon she has it?

Do 12 inches count double?

Only in the sauna near yours

A behind-the-scenes version of the video was also released for fans to feast on. A healthy dose of Kylie, just what the doctor ordered.

And that's not all. Last night (16 December), Kylie released an extended, acapella and instrumental version of XMAS and dropped the download price of the single to 59p.

Kylie's website was getting so many hits yesterday, that an automatic queue even formed before fans could enter and purchase the single. Demand is CLEARLY high. 

On top of this, she has dropped a range of physical editions including a gold 7" vinyl, a 12" zoetrope vinyl and signed CDs. Alexa: Play X-M-A-S.



Fan Reactions:

The Kylie fanatics are showing no signs of slowing down.

Their activity on social media has been rife, rallying not only fans, but the whole world to buy and stream XMAS.

Need to see the official flash, but someone in the market did a big reverse ferret. Which is obviously impossible to disguise in one this thin.

Amazon just sold out.

Still no  alanjz...

Kylie 9,000 ahead

Thanks Cider (and later Shraine too) for my £13 guaranteed profit lol. I laid off much too soon but it was my first time and I was just following this thread, and checking, as I know 0 about the subject. I think you've probably created interest in this market because Wham remained very low odds on for ages after you started talking about Kylie.

I don’t know anything about it either

K 38617
W 29841
M 24646
Brenda 22451
Lullaby 22451

Brenda and Lullaby on exactly the same, apparently.

Wham only just ahead of where they were last week, which is a little odd. But Kylie looks beyond them.

No worries H, #1 delivers the chaos once again!

Looks like my Kylie backs never got matched why is it so got damn thin. Well done backers!

Lullaby can't be completely ruled out, as they aren't relying on streaming. I do have a feeling that Wham number is too low, and might be missing data. But even then, I think they are too far behind unless there is some active support from somewhere.

It's a pity it was so quiet, the Pog one was epic, and only two years ago. I suppose last year was quiet, and it's another tradition dying off from the public space.

Dec 17, 2025 -- 7:33PM, Lifter wrote:

Looks like my Kylie backs never got matched  why is it so got damn thin. Well done backers!

I feel your pain. This would have been a lovely winning market but the liquidity just wasn't there. Well played others who got involved and matched at the right times !

The Kylie vinyl is going oos on Amazon again, all the physicals also appear to be only post Christmas delivery on there now. You'd have to be pretty enthusiastic to purchase a physical for a Christmas song that won't arrive until after this year's Christmas!

Big final spotify for Wham, 758K. LW 597K, LY 779K. I was forecasting around 700K.

Same sauce. Up to Wednesday

Kylie 46326
Wham 35934

Kylie gained around 1.6K on the day. So Wham are not catching her this week. Looks like it's just Lullaby that can stop her.

Nice work Cider.

Owe you another pint of champagne, when they get
round to producing them.

Thanks yhtl!

If anyone is playing this market, advance warning that the outcome will be known to some people by mid-morning, commonly between 10-12. Really betfair should be suspending as as of 10 minutes ago.

K 55926
W 46616

On the bridle lol

On Monday after the flash came out, someone kept taking me on. Bizarre. But welcome.

Cider; for as long as I can remember, when it comes to the Christmas No.1 market, you are THE MAN! Top stuff, thanks

Thanks tim

I managed to get in early with Kylie @11, I was unaware of how well Palestine were doing or if there was anyone else to consider so thanks for the regular updates Cider

I didn't expect to find myself trying to access a locked Kylie Minogue fan forum, but there you go. I never did manage to get in either

Chris Rea died, sad news

Driving home for christmas a top Xmas song.

Yeah, seemed a top bloke for a smog :). Hopefully no1 this week, the genuine Xmas no1 including Xmas day

Yes, many of us grew up with that song. Sad but it's some legacy, the song had been dropping off due to the lack of prominent playlisting, so it should get a permanent boost hopefully. Potentially a campaign angle for 2026.

Regarding this week's chart, the way the charts are compiled means only spotify streaming for today, tomoz and Wednesday will count. Christmas day will be estimated.

Jeez the way in which they'll deny a boro crooner a no1

Always remember Bob mortimers tale on would I lie to you...

A truly great TV moment of all time.


https://youtu.be/H0WiwB1Cjbg?si=27Fy3pVeRy0JFqCx

..

Genius

Stainsby girls makes me laugh.  Sounds cool but the school is now a fairly grim comprehensive in boro and stainsby itself was so bad it had to be demolished :)

#10 582,903 Spotify for Driving Home For Christmas, yesterday. Up 10 places.