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five leaves left
15 Aug 25 12:11
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 68,000 | Blogger: five leaves left's blog
Thought it might be worth starting a thread this year. There does seem to be more posts on the forum of late. Even if 90% of them are army

The runners and riders in order they were announced

Harry Aikines-Aryeetey aka Nitro
Dani Dyer
Alex Kingston
Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink
Balvinder Sopal
George Clarke
La Voix
Chris Robshaw
Ellie Goldstein
Thomas Skinner
Vicky Pattison
Stefan Dennis
Ross King
Karen Carney
Kristian Nairn
Pause Switch to Standard View ***Strictly Come Dancing 2025***
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Report Cider December 20, 2025 9:35 PM GMT
Blobby had unwavering support in half the field! He did keep me amused though Love Praps to the point of tedium for any other readers Cry
Report Henry VIII December 20, 2025 9:36 PM GMT
Not the opposite to me Ange, I was moving green to George too during the show, managed to move a fair bit back cos of a luckly flip flop, but he would have been my best result. I'm sure bear had both covered nicely but it wasn't the series to be unwavering on - maybe just for forum fun.
Report bearcub December 20, 2025 9:43 PM GMT
I wasn't unwavering  and had laid lots of karen when she first went odds on and again today to completely level off, Had no intention of trading a penny during the show due to what happened during Spoty, and tbh anyone who bet IR today should question themselves.
Report Cider December 20, 2025 9:45 PM GMT
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2025 9:46 PM GMT
Integrity team Olympics
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2025 9:47 PM GMT
Shraine, fire up the bat signal again :)
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2025 9:49 PM GMT
They're gonna have to suspend when the vote opens at this rate of decline
Report Cider December 20, 2025 9:49 PM GMT
Inversed in about 3 minutes Grin
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2025 9:50 PM GMT
A 3rd dan in fiddling
Report Angela Rebecchi December 20, 2025 9:51 PM GMT

Dec 20, 2025 -- 9:45PM, Cider wrote:


It's a grim look. Almost as bad as SPOTY. Be interested to see if it's the same insider and what the integrity team will do about it.

Report Cider December 20, 2025 9:51 PM GMT
Someone said they opened the vote again. I took that image when it was suspended.
Report GeorgeBrush December 20, 2025 9:52 PM GMT

Dec 20, 2025 -- 9:51PM, Cider wrote:


Someone said they opened the vote again. I took that image when it was suspended.


Yeah, not much more happened

Report Cider December 20, 2025 9:55 PM GMT
BBC anyway. It appears that email/account only voting has a weakness that someone is exploiting. Perhaps they could see it before but didn't know the phone voting.
Report Cider December 20, 2025 9:59 PM GMT
Nice shout at the start anyway, bearcub. I'd initially written her off after they used her for the first show football pimp. I do suspect that was their plan too until they realised she was polling much better than the ones they wanted.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- December 21, 2025 12:14 AM GMT
Was out tonite, family meal, missed it all.

Pity, as it's been a much better series than expected.

Well done winners

Next year might be tough with everybody wanting to be on traitors
over strictly.
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 9:39 AM GMT
Yeah, some of our number obviously laughing all the way to the bank, but it's not sustainable if we want to keep these markets
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 21, 2025 10:27 AM GMT
Whomever did it is going to regret it.  I seriously doubt they are going to walk away with any winnings.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 21, 2025 10:30 AM GMT
If they get their stakes back, account closed and face no further action, I'd probably take that now in their position.
Report Shraine_Tumber December 21, 2025 11:45 AM GMT
I prefer to have insiders. Follow the money.

Whilst Karen was 1.27 bet365 was 11/10. Bet365 ain’t quick enough to adjust odds. I had 2k on at 11/10 across multiple accounts. Follow the money and get on as quick as possible.
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 11:50 AM GMT
So b365 won't be quite so keen in future
Report five leaves left December 21, 2025 11:53 AM GMT
Indeed. And people wonder why bookies are increasingly reluctant to offer prices on specials

Tw@t
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 21, 2025 12:08 PM GMT
If true, every one of those accounts will now be limited.  Also, if true, incredibly stoopid to advertise on here.  More chance Bet365 don't honour them now.  I don't believe it's true personally.

The last time I asked someone to put a bet on for me with 365, I had £125 at 4/1 (which was the max bet allowed) in athletics.  It was backed into 6/4 or 5/4 (and lost).  It was a nephew of mine and was a losing casual gambler unconnected to any other and it was still closed because of that one bet.  It probably was the last time I asked someone to put a bet on for me on an online account, period.  If something that innocuous results in a closed account, there's little point.
Report Cider December 21, 2025 12:22 PM GMT
It's account specific with 365 isn't it. Unbelievably they are the only firm still laying me on #1. But I do play fair. I'd backed Wham with them earlier in the market at 10/11. I could easily have cashed out or backed Kylie when it became clear she was going to win (5/2 at the time). But I let it run and allowed the trader to win on my account this year. I have no idea if it makes any difference at all, but seemed the prudent thing to do.

As I also stated, the result is known and betfair leaves the exchange market running. I didn't place any bets once it was known, personally I am very uncomfortable with betting when the result is known. And there was activity right up to 5pm on Friday, despite my warning on here.
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 12:38 PM GMT
Cider, George didn't get injured and lost. Pretty embarrassing for you.
On the plus side at least you can stop banging one out over his podcasts now Laugh
Yeah I thought another couple of women would win earlier bla bla bla. BUT, knowing George would not win, and allowing myself to read the intentions earlier still made sure I banked more profit from the series than you, even if you don't have the decency to admit I out chessed you on every single crucial bit of thinking at the business end.
Thank God for Dave's poll eh, the one that George won last night Excited
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 12:41 PM GMT
Nobody cares Bobby, bigger fish to get fried
Report Shraine_Tumber December 21, 2025 12:41 PM GMT
If you’re smart enough, always way round it. That’s all I am saying. In 3 weeks I’ve took approx 15/17k profit.
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 12:42 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2025 -- 12:41PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Nobody cares Bobby, bigger fish to get fried


You care enough to reply though. That's clever

Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 12:42 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2025 -- 12:41PM, Shraine_Tumber wrote:


If you’re smart enough, always way round it. That’s all I am saying. In 3 weeks I’ve took approx 15/17k profit.


Not bad going for someone 2 days earlier said George had it wrapped up

Report Shraine_Tumber December 21, 2025 12:44 PM GMT
As I said, if your smart enough you cash out profit wait for market moves the hit that’s ba****ds.

I don’t Invest my time with these shows for pennies. I hit and run.

Worst case hit level or on a small loss.
Report Cider December 21, 2025 12:45 PM GMT
It's embarrassing for you that you are still going on about it, Blobby! Yes you backed multiple runners to win, and I backed two. You don't know how much I made, but I'm still waiting for your screenshot from SS.
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 12:45 PM GMT
Id love to know the formula for backing hot favourites, then switching to the other person as they become a hot favorite and still making loads of profit. Cos from my knowledge of gambling, chasing is not overly profitable unless you are pumping massive amounts on top every time you switch
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 12:46 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2025 -- 12:45PM, Cider wrote:


It's embarrassing for you that you are still going on about it, Blobby! Yes you backed multiple runners to win, and I backed two. You don't know how much I made, but I'm still waiting for your screenshot from SS.


I have no intention of talking about how much I win. My misses will reap the benefits of that.
My time on here is purely to highlight how clueless you are.

Report Shraine_Tumber December 21, 2025 12:46 PM GMT
Yes. My stakes are high.
Report Cider December 21, 2025 12:48 PM GMT
You're going to have to try a bit harder for that, Blobby. You literally just posted about winning more than me (apparently).
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 12:48 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2025 -- 12:46PM, Shraine_Tumber wrote:


Yes. My stakes are high.


At what point did the penny drop that George did not have it sewn up? Cos he was given every chance to upset the apple cart last night. The market at one point assumed he had.

I however know the work was done from the semi and the job was done Cool

Report Cider December 21, 2025 12:50 PM GMT
We do know that comprehension is not up there in your strong points, Blobby :). I guess humility isn't up there there either :)
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 12:52 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2025 -- 12:48PM, Cider wrote:


You're going to have to try a bit harder for that, Blobby. You literally just posted about winning more than me (apparently).


It's not rocket science to work that out. I was backing in the hundreds at 12/1 I also told you I was still backing all the way down at 6/4. I also admitted George was a huge red for me
You was basically level on the hot all series favourite and Kaz. So there is no way unless you were laying down tens of thousands of pounds that you could have made more profit than me.
Besides as I said for forum purposes I only cared about getting one over you.
Job done Cool

Blobby- you really are a child aren't you. Explains why you watch young boys on Tiktok.

Report Cider December 21, 2025 12:58 PM GMT
You're really living in fantasy land. I was talking up Karen's chances whilst you were still jizzzing over Vicky. You might have convinced some people you were always on Karen, but actually you weren't. And you rated her 'fourth most popular at best'. Sure you opposed George from the start, an evens fav, solely on the basis that he wasn't touring. Well done on that.
Report Cider December 21, 2025 1:00 PM GMT
As for these fortunes down on Karen 12/1, it should be incredibly easy to post a screenshot of one of them. If you're claiming I don't believe you, you'd be correct.
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:01 PM GMT
That's bullshit. My reason for the prods stitching him up was the touring. And at the end of the day it doesn't matter what the reason was, I had them onside from the get go, and knew they wouldn't allow him to win.
You was so blindly dumb you though Dave's poll was the reason Kaz was 1.75 after the semi
I know you are embarrassed, and so you should be
Report Cider December 21, 2025 1:03 PM GMT
https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/use-snipping-tool-to-capture-scr...
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:03 PM GMT

Dec 21, 2025 -- 1:00PM, Cider wrote:


As for these fortunes down on Karen 12/1, it should be incredibly easy to post a screenshot of one of them. If you're claiming I don't believe you, you'd be correct.


No, because I have a life outside of this forum and I will enjoy my money regardless of whether you believe me or not haha

Report Shraine_Tumber December 21, 2025 1:05 PM GMT
Same here. No reason to lie. Enjoy.

Hope the insiders enjoy aswell. They deserve it. They helped me too Tongue Out
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:05 PM GMT
Just own it that despite how much I pointed it out to you and laid all the info on a plate, that you seriously think Dave's poll was why Kaz went heavy odds on after the semi.
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:05 PM GMT
Well done Shraine enjoy your winnings pal
Report Cider December 21, 2025 1:07 PM GMT
You're desperate for some credit when you called most things wrong. It is embarrassing. Sure you came to the Karen party late, whoopty woo. You are the special (sic) betting yoda we didn't know we needed :)
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:08 PM GMT
Late to the party, but still caught her at better odds than the early backers Cool
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:09 PM GMT
Thank **** I wasn't sitting on a series long favourite, watching all his tik tok videos, stalking him only to see him balls it up in the final. You must be feeling like a right wally today.
Report Cider December 21, 2025 1:14 PM GMT
The G info I put on here was all nicked from the DS appreciation thread.

Back to your comprehension issues, I could tell you the same thing 100 times, and it would still go through your vacant little head.

There was always the prospect that the producers would get the outcome they were so desperate for. My book was built around that.
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:16 PM GMT
Was Kaz sitting at 1.5 in midweek down to Dave's poll yes or no?
Report Cider December 21, 2025 1:18 PM GMT
Anyone sensible, fancying Karen to win strongly, would have similarly been prepared for George to be able to beat the producers. Presumably it was very close, the market said it flipped during the open voting. We'll never know, and it's not too relevant now.
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:20 PM GMT
Every single indication was out there that insiders were playing this market. You even had a dream scenario play out in spoty that any sensible person would have used to start putting more on Kaz when she started drifting (as i did)
But you failed, because you were obsessed with George. Borderline creepy the obsession was by the way.
Report Cider December 21, 2025 1:23 PM GMT
What is it that you are desperate for? A pat on the head for following insider money? Calling that tomorrow is Monday?
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:25 PM GMT
I was on Karen way before the insider money had her winning though. So again a load of **** from you. Why don't you just admit you made a hash of it. And I'll let it drop
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:26 PM GMT
Cos your boy was given a more than fair crack last night and still came up short. There really is no excuses as you how wrong you called it
Report Cider December 21, 2025 1:26 PM GMT
And I was on Karen way before you. What do you want? A rosette? Horseshoe?
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:28 PM GMT
Yeah and you had a level book in the final. No conviction in your assessment whatsoever.
Plus the whole time was convinced that George would win
Unless he got injured of course Laugh
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:29 PM GMT
Id love to buy you a t shirt with his face on and that golden phrase printed underneath it lol
George Clarke- only loses through injury.
Be a long time before anyone ever comes up with a belter to rival that
Report Cider December 21, 2025 1:30 PM GMT
No I didn't have a level book. Literally anything I tell you fails to sink in. If it makes you feel better to feel like I did my conkers on G, knock yourself out :)
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:32 PM GMT
Lol so now you had a bigger green on Karen.
Cider the gift that keeps on giving
This is more enjoyable than Kaz lifting the glitterball last night Laugh
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 1:53 PM GMT
Cider Bobby tennis again lol
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 1:54 PM GMT
Game set and match Bobby
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 1:59 PM GMT
25p matched on bf
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2025 2:13 PM GMT
Anyone know Karen's highest matched price?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- December 21, 2025 2:19 PM GMT
CLYDEBANK29

CLYDEBANK29
21 Dec 25 12:08
Joined: 10 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 14,775 | Blogger: CLYDEBANK29's blog
If true, every one of those accounts will now be limited.  Also, if true, incredibly stoopid to advertise on here.  More chance Bet365 don't honour them now.  I don't believe it's true personally.

The last time I asked someone to put a bet on for me with 365, I had £125 at 4/1 (which was the max bet allowed) in athletics.  It was backed into 6/4 or 5/4 (and lost).  It was a nephew of mine and was a losing casual gambler unconnected to any other and it was still closed because of that one bet.  It probably was the last time I asked someone to put a bet on for me on an online account, period.  If something that innocuous results in a closed account, there's little point.





You really need to avoid placing bets near to limit when
using a mug account.

Just stick to nephews normal limit.
Report freddiewilliams December 21, 2025 2:19 PM GMT
3700 posts. Jesus h
Report Henry VIII December 21, 2025 2:47 PM GMT
Tim 70.
Report timbuctooth December 21, 2025 2:48 PM GMT
Thanks
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 3:49 PM GMT
Who got the lowest price and was the backer? :)
Report bearcub December 21, 2025 4:22 PM GMT
You're playing a Dangerous game there Plain
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 4:27 PM GMT
I wasn't, they were
Report bearcub December 21, 2025 4:29 PM GMT
Dancing attracts them types
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 4:51 PM GMT
As ever, hard to dancypher your meaning :p
Report bearcub December 21, 2025 5:06 PM GMT
Worse comeback ever Cry
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 6:37 PM GMT
Bobby wins that ;-)
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 7:03 PM GMT
You think you'll ever start charging me rent Boggy?
Report bearcub December 21, 2025 7:31 PM GMT
Why don't you tell us your previous Bobby

You can dm me Wink
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 7:43 PM GMT
Did we rule out HF?
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 8:18 PM GMT
Why is it impossible to believe I'm a newbie?
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 8:19 PM GMT
Cos you were around with the dinosaurs
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 8:22 PM GMT
Was still living rent free in your head back then as well ;)
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 8:24 PM GMT
You've got a delightful selection of phrases borrowed off the Internet :)
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 8:27 PM GMT
And every word you use is borrowed from the internet. I bet you are great fun at a party :/
Report Bobbasauras December 21, 2025 8:27 PM GMT
Dictionary*
Report GeorgeBrush December 21, 2025 8:28 PM GMT
Tennis over for now :)
Report Angela Rebecchi December 21, 2025 11:53 PM GMT
Cider is a great poster, and boy oh boy—if we could get it right all the time, this game wouldn’t be half as much fun. It sounds like Cider landed a very nice win on either, which at the prices—and given how the final transpired—felt like the perfect way to play it.

I’d consider myself fairly savvy in these special markets and I think embracing differing opinions and a bit of back-and-forth banter is all part of the enjoyment. Like two prize fighters who’ve spent a month trading words before finally meeting in the ring, it’s only right to exchange a bit of humility and grace once the battle has been decided and the dust has settled.

You did very well getting on with 3*5 Shraine. I’ve got a few accounts with them—one fresh as a daisy—and still couldn’t get much on at all. In the end, I didn’t even bother with my other account, as I’d rather keep that for sports and horses, where the limits are significantly higher.
Report Bobbasauras December 22, 2025 7:13 AM GMT
Cider was bitter til the very end, that much was evident.
Report Bobbasauras December 22, 2025 7:14 AM GMT
Humility is not giving people silly nicknames my 9 year old would come up with Crazy
Report Cider December 22, 2025 10:43 AM GMT
Thanks AR!

Here you go Blobby, now please stop. You are becoming an irritant. For the avoidance of doubt, your 'Here's our winner' post was referencing Vicky. Congratulations.



George Clarke
Odds
7.52
Matched (GMT)
27-Sep-25 20:16
Report Bobbasauras December 22, 2025 11:08 AM GMT
I'll stop when I'm ready, not you.
Report Bobbasauras December 22, 2025 11:08 AM GMT
I guess you'll only stop when your laptop hard drive is finally checked
Report GeorgeBrush December 22, 2025 1:29 PM GMT
When you win you're suppose to get this wave of dopamine and feel good will to all men lol
Report GeorgeBrush December 22, 2025 1:30 PM GMT
Another memo Bobby missed :(
Report Bobbasauras December 22, 2025 2:09 PM GMT
Yeah cos I didn't win anything remember Sad
Report GeorgeBrush December 22, 2025 2:41 PM GMT
Ok, sorry, thought you had
Report Bobbasauras December 22, 2025 2:45 PM GMT
Depends which version you believe, the truth, or Cider.
Report Cider December 22, 2025 3:34 PM GMT
BBC ONE-Strictly Come Dancing: The Final ≈ 7.7m (54.1%)

Peak ≈ 8.4m (57.9%)
Report Lifter December 22, 2025 4:02 PM GMT
Not sure on the combined odds, I guess maybe around 1.70. But a win is a win - nice one Bobby Cool
Report GeorgeBrush December 23, 2025 2:29 PM GMT
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1j914rj64do

I'm guessing this happened before shraine took all their money
Report Cider December 23, 2025 2:44 PM GMT
Every Strictly Final Overnight Rating

2004-S1-Main Show-7.8m (43%) Results-8.9m (43%)
2004-S2-Main Show-9.0m (39%) Results-10.6m (44%)
2005-S3-Main Show-10.4m (38%) Results-10.0m (38%) Peak-10.9m
2006-S4-Main Show-10.9m (43%) Peak-12.6m (54%) Results-11.7m (47%) Peak-12.3m
2007-S5-Main Show-10.9m (43%) Peak-12.6m (54%) Results-11.4m (47%) Peak-12.4m (50%)
2008-S6-Main Show-11.7m (48%) Peak-12.5m Results-12.2m (50%) Peak-13.3m (50%)
2009-S7-Main Show-10.1m (42%) Results-10.4m (42%) Peak-11.7m (47%)
2010-S8-Main Show-13.0m (46%) Peak-14.5m (51%) Results-13.1m (48%) Peak-14.1m (52%)
2011-S9-Main Show-12.2m (48%) Results-11.9m (46%)
2012-S10-Main Show-12.4m (49%) Peak-14.0m (53%) Results-12.1m (46%) Peak-13.4m (51%)
2013-S11-Main Show-11.5m (48%) Peak-12.3m (49%) Results-11.5m (46%) Peak-12.6m (50%)
2014-S12-Main Show-10.7m (46%) Results-10.2m (43%)
2015-S13-Main Show-11.0m (50%) Peak-11.9m (53%) Results-11.0m (48%) Peak-11.7m (53%)
2016-S14-11.8m (54%) Peak-12.8m (57%)
2017-S15-11.7m (56%) Peak-13.1m (60%)
2018-S16-11.7m (54%) Peak-12.7m
2019-S17-11.2m (56%)
2020-S18-11.3m (53%) Peak-13.2m
2021-S19-11.1m Peak-12.3m (58%)
2022-S20-9.2m (54%)
2023-S21-8.8m (53%)
2024-S22-8.6m (59%) Peak-9.3m (64%)
2025-S23-7.7m (54%) Peak-8.4m (58%)

What stands out there to a geek like me is the audience share remained broadly consistent in the last decade. Since 2021 there's a big drop off of people watching live broadcast tv, correlated with lockdowns I'd say, and it was trending that way anyway. Share 53% in 2020 was 11.3, share 54% was 7.7 in 2025! And the huge share to watch the forgone conclusion last year, peak in 2024 was top share of any measure in scd history, but only 9.3M.
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