*. *. *.... S P O T Y... 2025 . .*.*.*.

Yes, best VT and best interview by 18 holes and green lights all the way to the clubhouse

Before the voting lines closed for the initial time you could lay Lando in the w/o market at around 1.4.  Kildunne was available at 8 for small money. Shortly after the lines were reopened I put up a lay of Lando up at 1.15 (iirc) which was best price at the time.  Next time I looked Kildunne was odds on.

cool_hand_luke posted @ 20.56 that "one site has already announced Rory as the winner"

It was literally IAC II, no attempt to hide or disguise it, just whacking up big chunks on Ellie to back and Lando to lay. Originally they tried for 3 on Ellie, with about £5K

Dec 19, 2025 -- 9:48AM, Cider wrote:

Someone lost over a grand there. Though maybe they had her at the great early pricesThat wasn't the final graph alas, I was too busy with managing my own position. The insider was too greedy. Once it became clear to me someone knew the outcome, I was mopping up some of the smaller amounts at lower prices. Hope the feds don't come for me lol

Insider by association - cuff him chaps

It could have gone wrong ha.

If you compared it to the OR, was ridiculously out of line. I mean maybe 10% chance it was an idiot or hedging, but it very much looked like knowledge to me.

Lando was never presented with a trophy.  A fair few people would maybe have known after the top 3 announcement that he wasn't getting one and not to worry about recording that.  And it was that info that got leaked?

Dec 19, 2025 -- 9:57AM, Cider wrote:

It could have gone wrong ha.If you compared it to the OR, was ridiculously out of line. I mean maybe 10% chance it was an idiot or hedging, but it very much looked like knowledge to me.

If you can't beat em, join em. Writing was on the wall so well played

Years ago I heard they had to be prepared for anyone not there placing or winning. So BBC peeps in the background with replica awards.

It was a new voting system, and had a cut off. Fair chance that's how it was exposed. It wasn't even made public that there would be a cut off until the last minute.

The show remains dynamic, but context matters. We’ve now had four female winners in a row, including two Lionesses. At the same time, viewing figures have been declining, alongside a growing narrative that certain “huge achievements” are in fact underperforming. Whether that rhetoric is a cause or merely correlated with falling audiences is open to interpretation, but it clearly forms part of the backdrop.

Against that backdrop, it seems entirely plausible that the BBC were concerned about a Chloe victory—contrary to the popular hypothesis that she would be pushed towards glory. The issue isn’t gender, but perception: a win for Chloe could have been framed as rewarding comparatively little, especially in a year where Rory has achieved genuine sporting and golfing immortality. Chloe beating Rory may well have been seen internally as a potential nail in the coffin for the show’s credibility.

It’s notable that only a few weeks ago Chloe was trading at a shorter price than Rory. The subsequent drift aligns neatly with the point at which insiders would have known the shortlist. And, as we saw yesterday, those insiders appeared confident that Rory was cruising to victory, with Lando and Ellie clearly ahead of the rest—Ellie ultimately overtaking Lando late on (no pun intended but I'll take it).

It was more that I don't feel you could bank on them not pushing Chloe to victory. It could have gone either way. The BBC often doubles down as it thinks it is always right and virtuous. But someone high up in the food chain decided not to here, and Europe winning the team award meant that it wasn't likely on the table anyway.

The year Giggs won the PFA award it was a market I had some interest in.  IIRC I had some money on Vidic.  I knew it was a market closer to the time you had to be very careful.  Anyway, I had a sixth sense that someone knew Giggs had won and was being really cute, so I tested it and took everything that was available on Giggs from maybe 4.5 to 5 or 5 to 5.5. It wasn't a lot, mebbe £50-£75 in stakes.  Was along those lines.  Within 30 minutes or similar he was odds on.  My take was as soon as that someone thought he wasn't the only one that knew, he took the lot.

Whoever knew that the Scottish lad didn't make the 6 knew not to scare the horses. They predominately left his OR money and only played in the t3. Even in the t3, they didn't take everything straight away.

It's also cheaper to buy in the t3

They were laying 60+, so not much in it. I think OR was around 90/100

Scott was small fry. They were pretty smart as made good money from much larger amounts trading Rory in and Chloe out !

No point whining in here, you do have options

Laying Scott for £100 large prices or thousands at average backs Rory 2.5 and average lays Chloe 2.5 - that's where the insider trading made their good money knowing the shortlist

50% extra

I mean you're right, but I've seen bets that I can't afford to take, even when I know they've lost already.
Like Biden in the US Prez election. You know you'll win, but you run out of funds.

(CLYDEBANK can put me in the aftertiming thread for that)

I've already spoken with Betfair about it. I suggest others do too. The more they hear about it the likelier they are to close the accounts of the insiders and let us play these markets in a fairer environment

That was to Cider

Amber now is a genuine one!

But obviously we've observed these markets for years. You wouldn't normally get someone wise enough to leave the OR price and only lay t3 out to a certain point. If they knew he wasn't in for sure. I wrote it at the time that whoever had the info also knew how to best utilise it.

I'm guessing that a seasoned BF user has slipped a brown envelope to an insider.
Probably someone he heard about through his daughter's best mate's boyfriend, or something.

Not casting aspersions but there was a guy from love Island on the panel lol

Dec 19, 2025 -- 9:27AM, Cider wrote:

Following on from my earlier message, I wanted to draw attention specifically to the exchange price/volume graph for Ellie Kildunne in the Winner Without Rory McIlroy market.

The graph shows a sharp, late collapse in price (approx. 4.0 → 1.1) immediately before the result, accompanied by increased traded volume. The timing and structure of the move appear atypical for a public, in-play voting market.

I’m sharing this purely for reference, as the graph itself illustrates the behaviour in question more clearly than words.

Wow

BBC ONE-BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2025 ≈ 2.5m (23.7%)

Peak ≈ 3.3m

Lowest Overnight Ever

Interesting. We mostly though it was a much better year, but same ratings

I guess none of the t6 are particularly appealing characters

10% down. It must cost a fortune as well. I am surprised it dipped, considering the runners and the publicity. You'd love to know how many votes were cast.

Probably less than any episode of x factor tbh.  Some expenses to rory for his jet. Nothing to pay to lando. Media city venue next to most of the attendees

Tiny clips of action, cheap as chips

Trio of presenters on less than minimum wage :)

Let’s call a duck a duck. Cider and his mates have no idea when it comes to Spoty. 1500 ridiculous posts and got it 100% WRONG.
Pretending they made money from 3rd place spots. Really do we think we believe you.
Joke.
50% of Spoty voters have never heard of Ryder Cup is classic idiot post. Muppet idiot.
Guess what they won team of the year. How did that happen ?

No wonder only 5 people post on here.

cry more

I’ve collected big time on Rory if you want to check back.

Cider told me Rory can’t win. Idiot

Actually 3700 wrong winning comments out of 3750. Must be a record

I think you’re wrong, Hibore. Many posters here make consistent year-on-year profits on these special markets, with some earning five figures annually from them alone.

The discussion adds real value too. The banter and social side make it more enjoyable, and it’s genuinely fun to see people pull off great trades — like FLL getting on Kelly at 999/1 and then the market trading it down to odds-on. And in truth, whether you make £20,000 a year from it or just break even, a big part of the appeal is trying to solve the puzzle. Sometimes your predictions shine bright like a star; other times they crash and burn like a giraffe walking into a hippo-only nightclub. Taking in a range of views and data, both here and across social media and other outlets, helps absorb qualitative and quantitative information and sharpens decision-making on what bets or trades to make.

haha well yes I have already conceded that I misjudged the impact of the rc, however I'd still stand by that stat. toty would have been won before the show started. The audience FALLING even though we had a much better year of sport tells us a lot, doesn't it. And Hibore should stay off the shandy in the evening ;)

Big lol at Hibore coming on here for a row because he can't get enough rows in the horse forums.

From one visitor here to another, it might not be your bag, but admire the dedication, the knowledge,
the quality of writing (mostly), the bantz and the skills demonstrated in some of the trades pulled off.

Hope you stick around Pete for more bantz :)

It's a bit fast-paced for me George. I do believe there's money to be made by listening to you lot,
but it's hard to keep up for someone who doesn't watch much TV.

Thanks for your help this last few weeks. I mean you and the others. Even the "lay Rory" advice was
useful, in its way.

Lol yep. You started with a good rory Green tbf so always sensible to lock in a bit of profit

A bit chaotic when army gets started but we wouldn't do without him

His research is fantastic but can lead you up the garden path at times. I just never felt chloe was popular

She needed to represent the female footy team, and play into the anti 'hate' agenda. The scene for that narrative was set too, but it never materialised on the show. And they didn't recreate the tension and ultimate joy of the shoot out. It's not comparable backing someone at 10s, as it is at 1.7s though. At 1.7ish you need to be right nearly all of the time. As I said to army, the fact that the Mc backers got all the green lights doesn't mean that it was wrong to oppose him. I would do the same again.

Army would admit himself (I suspect), that he gets to dogmatic in his positions. In these events you need to build in cover in case it doesn't go exactly how you planned. So for example there was plenty of juice in the W/O market, regardless of how Mac performed. Plus obviously trading other runners can give you cover on the OR odds on fav.

The w/o market should have been fertile ground, but it was a bit weak. I was wary of the
prices because they looked so wrong that I thought I was misunderstanding something.
I've jumped in with two feet before, only to discover some obscure rule that explained
the anomaly.

I was going to retire on the differences between nil-all draws and no first goalscorer, a
few years ago. Then I discovered own goals. D'oh.

Nobody ramped kildunne, apart from army for about 3 hours.  But he went through all 5 and finished up with chloe

There are definitely some trip hazards in specials. One came up just the other day, as on the top Christmas tv market, for some reason unknown to man, bet 365 use 7 day consolidated when everyone else uses overnight. Very often the winners of the two criteria are different, and the tissue would definitely be a lot different. The King has virtually no chance on 365. But is taking up half of the market!

Another one would be top female (or top male) on SCD. Used to be a huge angle that BBC stopped revealing the finishing order of the final aside from the winner. So you could get some big prices on a dead heat, given the right circumstances. It's why Karen is trading much shorter on top female than to win.

Might have had few Shandies last day and night

Problem on here is if you don’t agree with Army and co you are abused. Some of the comments and rational (which are posted as facts) are so far off the mark it does make you laugh.

Roll on 2026 and maybe we can have more measured conversations.

Might have had few Shandies last day and night

Problem on here is if you don’t agree with Army and co you are abused. Some of the comments and rational (which are posted as facts) are so far off the mark it does make you laugh.

Roll on 2026 and maybe we can have more measured conversations.

If the BBC revealed the order she would be 1.04 or so!

Dec 20, 2025 -- 12:50PM, Hibore wrote:

Might have had few Shandies last day and night Problem on here is if you don’t agree with Army and co you are abused. Some of the comments and rational (which are posted as facts) are so far off the mark it does make you laugh. Roll on 2026 and maybe we can have more measured conversations.

Nobody abused you, they just found it amusing that you described Rory as the Housewives favourite golfer as the reason he would win.

He is extremely popular with all the public. His achievements this year was the reason he was going to win but it helps when you are universally liked. And that was correct.

So was housewives choice or 50% of SPOTY audience have never heard of Ryder cup more amusing?

Let’s move on. Well done Cider with Kylie.

Thanks Hibore. It's obviously an estimation and can never be proven one way or another. The fact that Mc won neither proves or disproves it. It hinged on whether the bbc would try to stop him or not, in the end they helped him with a dream vt and interview. Lando didn't get that and was beaten by the 200/1 shot.

Rory was at the AJ vs Jake Paul fight last night, it does make me wonder if BBC told him beforehand there’s a good chance he would win to encourage him to turn up, I wonder if things would’ve changed much if Lando and Littler were there and Chloe and Rory didn’t turn up, I genuinely think Chloe might’ve done better not turning up at all as the more screen time she gets the more marmite she becomes

On a side note am I crazy for thinking there used to be specials markets for boxing matches? I wasn’t sure if I should create a thread for AJ vs Jake Paul which turned out to be very easy money in the end

Que? There was a boxing market, what special market do you want?

Yeah, joshua in 6 was extremely logical, aftertiming here :). But they only slight danger to AJ were the opening rounds so let Paul tire himself running away (or lunging in for a bj)

Might have had few Shandies last day and night

Problem on here is if you don’t agree with Army and co you are abused

Hib, you do realise you just used army's favourite 'excuse' also

I noticed he waited until army ducked out to appear :)

Poor old Army. Totally deluded but goes in 100% which you have to respect. At least when you do your conkers you get value for money.

He's always full on is our army yep - not always to the one he was backing earlier, but full on...

Army deff works in marketing, or he should. I'm a copywriter by day (selling things with the written word), and he's a pro at that

Army works?   Computer says no

Lifter did you get your £500 max deposit/month raised? I've heard everybody has a limit by default, I haven't hit one yet, but I'm not betting big atm (although more than 500).

https://support.betfair.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/10334/

If you need to deposit you're doing something wrong :)

thanks

Lol made money on Karen but now want to do ESC with a bit bigger bank.

* "thanks" to Cider

Lol yep

Post a jpg of your SCD and I'll promise to do the same. You won't though, you were fuming after SCD, but don't be too down, there's always the next thing.

I didn't do scd henners

Anyway let's be nice, I can't be bothered with this rubbish (I'll always post if you do, just to keep my word).

Just arrived to entertain Bobby

# Grabspopcorn

So have I lol

https://youtu.be/18JmieM8SFc?si=Uc1MjQAY-kk6r-Rz

Henry at Christmas

That made me laugh (not me though - not posh and don't drink).

:)

Something dodgy about that link, George. It brought up some salty recommendations on the right hand side.

This is my work computer. Please be respectful.

That's more to do with your computer. It's just the fast show on YouTube

If it's not your regular workstation I'd give it a wipe down :)

The si parameter in the query string (after the ?) identifies you to Google
so that they know you shared the  link and I clicked it.

It's one of the ways they track you.

So all the recommendations for scantily-clad ladies were based on your tastes, I'm afraid.

Anyway, we're all adults. And at least you don't seem to be into anything illegal.

I got mostly air fryer recipes and Luke Littler from his link

Sounds positively healthy compared to bear lol

Any idea why you're clicking on such things at work if it's so problematic to you?

He's on a gambling website but  worried his boss might think he likes women.

Not much chance his boss thinks that :)

Send him a link bear

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yvm_WtEI2JI&t=7s

Phwoar. Tbf I'm a convert

I said it was a work computer, not that I was at work.

Please be respectful. Pmsl

Then posts 'good job you're not a paedophile'

Apologies. I didn't expect you to take it thick.
And I certainly didn't mention paedophiles.

Sportsbooks got prices up for 2026

Problem with the SPOTY markets at this time of year is it's like betting on an event 12 months away, no hang on, it IS betting on an event 12 months away! I prefer the 2.10 at Kenilworth today personally ( addict alert...)

Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places


Harry Kane


6/1

Lando Norris


7/1

Luke Littler


15/2

George Russell


9/1

Rory McIlroy


12/1

Tommy Fleetwood


16/1

Jack Draper


16/1

Harry Brook


16/1

Jude Bellingham


16/1

Ben Stokes


20/1

Bukayo Saka


20/1

Jordan Pickford


20/1

Anthony Joshua


20/1

Cole Palmer


20/1

Phil Foden


20/1

Ronnie O'Sullivan


20/1

Emma Raducanu


25/1

Emma Finucane


25/1

Maro Itoje


25/1

Alex Yee


25/1

Chloe Kelly


25/1

Declan Rice


25/1

Dina Asher-Smith


40/1

Lewis Hamiliton


40/1

Morgan Rogers


40/1

Dave Ryding


40/1

Daniel Dubois


50/1

Gus Atkinson


50/1

Judd Trump


50/1

Adam Peaty


50/1

Ellie Kildunne


50/1

Lauren Price


50/1

Marcus Rashford


50/1

Harry Maguire


50/1

Tom Aspinall


50/1

Beth Mead


50/1

Marcus Smith


50/1

Finn Smith


50/1

Moses Itauma


50/1

........... Sportsbook



Sadly not available to lay

Nice to see kane in the market this year...

There's a 2026 thread ffs :)

Rice - prem, champs league, world cup, balon d or

Sorry George, but sports book prices shouldn't be taken
as seriously as when they put up our market.

It's sad that they are cleaning up the mug money
before allowing us to bet.