IM A CELEBRITY 2024

Ta man

Evening campers,  I think the Rev got a little momentum from yesterday's show and will get past Oti with ease.

This buildup to cyclone..fake enthusiasm from the celebrities...

.. reminds me of when there's a really sh1t game on sky sports and the commentators keep telling us what a great game it is...

.. Cyclone is basically the same every year...and it's sh1t

The whole thing is utterly tedious after so many years, rinse and repeat but it still flies against the general tide of decline in linear tv broadcasting.

Mighty surprised they didn't give this task to Rooney

Old Danny thinks he's running away with it.

Been watching wolf hall instead of this ****, cultural innit

IAC lookalike; Alan and Luke Littler

Lukey would win spoty if it was on itv lol

Have they gone in market order again?   Knock me over with a feather

If it wasn't for the market wouldn't we all think Cleen would romp home?

Maybe she will, the number of voters will increase

I have Danny winning the h2h, mentioned a few times. It must default to who has been the best on the show in the last two mass vote, which has to be Danny. Not that he is an amazing standout but lengths ahead of Rooney.

Fans often think "who has been the best on the show" but imo emotional connection is also important (and in a way is best), especially if a campmate has either changed expectations or created a good first time impression.

tim's right that they appear to have given up on Rooney, gave her that really tough trial with rev after soft everything up to then, Danny got his kid as well and the 'secret task'. It ties in with what the market tells us that she was in front and they've flipped. There's always the chance of course that they flip again, but for me that seems pretty unlikely.

OC in this the market is usually informed though.

Yes H but we are looking at second preferences essentially. Those voting for Rooney will vote Rooney again, same as Danny. So the new people are predominately Rev voters and those who will just vote when down to last two. I would make Danny pretty short to 'win' that. Assuming oc Rev doesn't flip with the runner in second!

No final 3 sun poll?

Today we finally get to enjoy Coleen crowned as new queen of the jungle.

Dec 7, 2024 -- 10:13PM, timbuctooth wrote:

Mighty surprised they didn't give this task to Rooney

No need any more, she's too far ahead.

Coleen was building support up to about three days ago, then it looked like the extra good edits stopped, I think Danny wins and we will see 1.3 Danny in the head to head.

If the insiders suddenly feel sure enough

"too far ahead" was tongue in cheek but I don't see why her momentum would have slowed down. And last night we had her saying Wayne was her only serious boyfriend, the only one she took home to meet her parents, while Danny was boasting about chatting up girls at a very young age.

Everyone saw the sun poll yes?

So extreme I'm not sure

Danny is most deserving in my view.

In the sense he's been screaming make me the winner constantly for 3 weeks

So the read has Danny still in front

Danny herm and hersed it seems

Cleen took the lead just for 1 day then?

Same as before, they seem to get it about 10 mins after cut off

5 i would say

Then word seems to get around and people are sticking a few hundred up to lay at 3

If you've been your true self danny, that's even worse :)

Funny price to fix it on all the same

Too greedy to get good prices.

If the hypothesis correct and they only get the retrospective order, they know Rooney was in front at the start, which means Rooney could be close enough to flip it on the last vote. How low would you go, not much past 2's on.

Never in doubt!

King Danny, very deserving winner !

He was very good when winning The Masked Singer this year and now he has done the double.

Not much past 2s on,


Or spoof market so you got better, so either a lazy punter
or multiple sources getting inside read.

Interesting patterns anyway, all that money shovelling on Rooney just before and through the start of the show, but the insiders were just waiting for the next read. Helped me out anyway, next year think I'll just analyse the market moves after each vote, easier than watching the shyte!

They got everything right so yep, you don't need to watch it.

I don't feel like there are dozens of people involved, if they are they are combining efforts. But they are well capitalised and learned lessons from past mistakes, ie a bit more cautious.

Most of the money started coming after she cried in front of the camera at the start of the show. I took the view it was just casual punters thinking that was going to win it for her.

ie not the insiders, even though they knew (I am assuming), Danny won yesterday. But they had the patience to wait for the next read, knowing it was coming soon. Makes me think that there aren't many involved. But most serious players will know there is informed money, so could have been caught up in the flood of Rooney cash.

It was likely about 5% in it, close enough for them to worry slightly about a hth flip

62.4% to 37.6% apparently

Lol

Lots of naive punters fighting the market then

I've always had that nagging feeling they didn't get the percentages, due to that big turnover of Andy. It's all educated guesswork obviously but I feel like Andy had won every vote, but they couldn't have known JJ was close enough to take him out at the end. Until that last read came through.

Dec 8, 2024 -- 11:06PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Lol

saw it on twitter ;) I assume it's true

Why does richard treble in price before the read?  There's still a few mysteries to solve

Instagram is the new twitter, which was the new fb. It's a great guide on this and BB now

The sun poll is dead, long live the next inanimate guru

Whatever leak is in the system, someone finds out what the order is after each vote close and reset. I don't think there's any chance they see the live voting, or the percentages. I suspect this year Rooney 'won' the first two pvs then it flipped for the rest of the show to Danny. Which makes sense for someone doing well due to their profile outside of the show, then it gets swamped as people leave.

Dec 8, 2024 -- 11:10PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Why does richard treble in price before the read?

I think the sun poll lacked any sort of security feature this time

Unless it's just older types reading those articles and younger ones dominating the app

As Richard was below the two of them on every vote. So outside chance he flips one of them but almost impossible to flip both.

Glad you two have it all sussed

Yeah, but why the timing of those lays?  Could have been any time in 24 hours

People dumping useless green. The same thing happened before Bellew finished 3rd ;)

It all fits imo, if you knew Danny had one every single vote you'd probably go as low as 1.2. We'll find out if we get the confirmed vote reveal but if he won by miles them they wouldn't have been leaving the 1.7+ up before the f3 vote closed.

Lol

Your votes revealed:

Vote for Third Place:
Danny - 43.35%
Coleen- 28.87%
Richard - 27.78%

Vote for winner of the Jungle:
Danny - 59.64%
Coleen - 40.36%

I wasn't far off

I thought about 60/40

Rev 2nd backers desperately unlucky

You da man fig

Not on strictly Still depressed about Pete & Jowita

Shows again that the insiders don't get the percentages or live voting. It's sacrilege but maybe betfair shouldn't have exchange betting for this at all. Or shop the insiders.

Always assume itv viewers are total idiots, then lower your expectations of them a few more notches and you won't go far wrong

We could be breeding a nation of maga equivalents

lol you two change your views to fit the facts

Joke is fig i made them %'s up

That's been my hypothesis all along, ever since the Andy saga. We saw those massive lays coming for two runners GK and Tyrone iirc, but CB was probably right that it was a clumsy layer with a big bank. If I remember rightly the first vote was still open at that point. Then the first Rooney plunge came after the vote closed.

Loads of punters were desperate for cleen to be doing well, but the market kept dragging it back. Same as many years

Oh, and they all left in odds order again

You must have made a fortune then Just follow the insiders money

We should open a book on who hacked the sun poll

Evens Shraine
2/1 Gregg
7/2 Tim
6/1 bear

Army.  Missing all day

but he didn't have a bet

fingers crossed for the Lukey backers

I've not even seen todays Sun poll

Army.  Missing all day

He's hiding behind his sofa, waiting for SPOTY noms to come out

That why you're outsider Shraine was posting it all day

Lukey's odds not behaving like someone who's out :)

Could Chris be the 1st? person to be no offers by the time of the final?

1.08 now

Tomorrow will be army's revenge :)

TBH I'd have said that too GB, not a big enough drift.

It's not that easy to ignore your own opinions after nearly 20 years of successful specials betting, and just follow what I deem to be informed money. What I would say is I would most likely have lost on the OR this year without taking clues from the market. Not a fan of Danny at all really, as at the top of the thread the two I liked antepost were Rev and Maura to trade shorter that their SPs.

i've just seen it, Coleen 17% ahead was believable

I think he overdid it

tbf better than my picks cider

Tulisa Barry Dean Oti

It's interesting psychology anyway to still willingly play a game of cards when you know the pack is stacked. Don't need to worry about it for nearly a year anyway, gn people

Ant & Dec both picked Danny to win. They're the insiders

The most default default-winner in years. No one took him on, though

Vote for Final Three:
⭐️ Danny 41.36%
⭐️ Coleen 33.47%
⭐️ Richard 25.18%

Vote for the Winner:

Vote for the Winner:

FFS
Danny 55.21%
Coleen 44.79%

Coleen backers close but no cigar - great trading selection though for some I'm sure.

Without a Danny type she'd have hosed in, but he was always there.

Coleen did 0.1 better in hth vs 3 way

She's nee jordan