*** Eurovision 1st Semi Final IR Thread ***

Get on with it!

What can I say, fll! Just another ESC phuck-up from me. But they haven`t won yet and, win or lose, it`s a mad price, just has to be taken on.

like a joke act on BGT

One of the BeeGees on keyboard

was that the wiggles

Lith by far the best so far

I nearly nodded off..

I prefer this. though apparently he duffed a few notes last night

This is proper dire

I like the flute. The rest not great. Not a massive response

Pink Hat Buddhist gangster rap wins?

lol, I'm to old for this

G'luck

Oh my word! Is that IT??? That`embarrassment is 1.7? Gonna need unmerciful amounts of emotion-driven votes, yet does nothing to engage anybody. Disjointed tosh, red and black from start to finish, LAY!!!!!!!!

no market change. perhaps later

a drift hopefully..

damb burst flood i hope.

S10

i'm liking this

Don`t know if Ukraine`s camerawork will be the same in the final, (IF they qualify!), but tonight`s was pretty dire, further alienating any emotional response. The drift`s on, and quite rightly so, 12% already in just minutes

Loving Moldova!

a real toe tapper

well I just laid Moldova to qualify £50 @ 1.21

So dad, so dad

Drift over already, back where it started, WTF?

Tellystats crashed

Tellystats crashed

ok here..

Denmark: music to slash your wrists to

All the figures re-set but now they're back

I thought he'd done it intentionally to take all our money

More Suzi Quattro than Osbourne

Best to do your own twitter stats bear

Tellystats has made me lazy

Tiktok has 18k viewers,, what a waste of time that's turned out to be

not surprising, as most videos on there last less than a minute

They're livestreaming it..... to the world,,

I hope these qualify,

I think bf has crashed too, must have frozen, as Ukraine are still 1.7

sucking up to hems again

Iceland, they're all crazy smiling like they just had pickled fish and are looking forward to a desert of reindeer testicles

Austria, not this lot

Amanda

cheery song

I actually like Norway

it's actually not a bad song

LSD, I suspect

Love Armenia

this is what the market looks like after all semi 1 performances

Semi Final 1 -- To Qualify                    £474,800 Matched

-£0	Ukraine	-	-	-		1.01	1.05	7	£42,678
						£3,003	£20	£218
-£0	Greece	-	-	-		1.01	1.02	1.05	£10,288
						£1,281	£1,388	£21
-£0	Norway	-	1.01	1.02		1.04	1.05	1.18	£43,243
			£2	£2,277		£80	£35	£10
-£0	Netherlands	-	1.01	1.02		1.04	1.05	1.08	£35,278
			£382	£462		£65	£1,725	£23
-£0	Armenia	1.01	1.02	1.06		1.07	1.1	-	£46,115
		£38	£867	£325		£6	£807
-£0	Portugal	1.03	1.04	1.05		1.07	1.08	1.09	£70,421
		£190	£45	£445		£1,746	£234	£28
-£11	Moldova	1.07	1.08	1.09		1.1	1.12	1.13	£41,323
		£15	£17	£142		£7	£783	£22
-£0	Albania	1.35	1.4	1.41		1.43	1.44	1.5	£59,811
		£9	£183	£101		£148	£100	£200
-£0	Latvia	2.2	2.22	2.24		2.38	2.4	2.42	£34,384
		£20	£10	£30		£15	£2	£43
-£0	Austria	1.12	1.18	1.8		1.9	1.93	2	£23,360
		£1,008	£500	£5		£2	£194	£229
-£0	Switzerland	2.94	3.05	3.1		3.25	3.3	3.35	£30,237
		£3	£115	£226		£49	£28	£8
-£0	Iceland	2.66	2.7	2.8		3.05	3.1	3.15	£7,763
		£17	£15	£2		£6	£6	£20
-£0	Lithuania	1.75	1.82	1.83		2	2.1	2.16	£7,702
		£1,038	£45	£21		£1	£6	£4
-£0	Croatia	3.35	3.45	3.5		3.6	3.65	3.85	£13,426
		£3	£20	£106		£36	£2	£5
-£0	Denmark	3.4	3.8	3.85		4.7	4.8	5	£5,823
		£50	£7	£4		£3	£6	£2
-£0	Slovenia	19	21	22		30	32	80	£1,429
		£8	£8	£20		£43	£103	£12
£70	Bulgaria	4.2	6.2	7.2		10	10.5	11.5	£1,519
		£9	£7	£63		£2	£4	£6

my P&L has come out skewed
laid Moldova & backed Bulgaria

Ukraine 1.68

Ukraine 1.68

but the backers money has all but disappeared, they're cacking themselves if Ukraine doesn't win semi 1

Top on social media stats but not by much. ITA, UK and SWE could well beat it on those measures in the final

..not that the money buyers will know or care

If Ukraine win semi 1, what will their price in the outright drop to ? 1.4? 1.2 maybe.
If they don't win semi 1 it'll be chaos in main market

If they draw first half expect market meltdown

We won't know Escapee

Not till Late Saturday night

It will light up twatter when the casuals tune in. The moves on the first few jury scores will be mental. Could easily be 1.2 or 3.5

True cider. I suspect the much bigger audience will see UKR do better on the sm front

fwiw I've seen most of the front runners now, I like Italy and Sweden. I'm much deeper into this than I was planning, can't get rid of the bug I guess, and what looks like an incorrect price. Played EW t4 those two and laid Ukr as I feel it's more likely to go out on the jury reveal. There is potential for the price to depress further when the whales see the twitter numbers on Saturday, I will go in deeper if so.

wd hems

some surprises

big surprises

i'm lolling at a certain persons Top 10

POR

only one small bet on tonight, laid alb tq

looking good cider

Lovely. Layed ALB and LAT

Layed NED too for fun @1.02

MUG

n1 fig

those thunder thighs very unappealing, too aggressive and awful vocal.

more of the subtle stuff done well interestingly, Ice, Lith, Ned.

Sweden is superior

cheers cider. POR too did well. Very good sm stats

but agree, SWE best of the female 'ballads'

I had to reset the Twitter stats quick cos I'd forgotten to add Croatia to the contestants list, had to quickly recalibrate.

Cheers Danz

If possible could you order them in appearance order, saves me looking up and down ..

May 10, 2022 -- 9:08PM, bearcub wrote:

Tellystats has made me lazy

Hahaha, see above.

Switzerland draw 1st half

7 first half and 12 sceond half slots left

Armenia first half draw

Iceland 2nd half

Lithuania 2nd half

Portugal first half

5 first half and 10 second half left. more chance for Ukraine to draw second half

Norway first half

Greece 2nd half

Ukraine first half, market drift

Moldova 2nd half

Netherlands first half

and Ukraine are now coming in again 1.75 almost back to where it was at start of semi final

They hit 1.9 a few minutes after the draw

Market isn't rational at all.

No drift after 1st half draw amongst those songs? Good luck

3 point drift on Italy overnight!! that based on draw or rumours from jury panels I wonder?

Ukraines song is dreadful imo after Saturday I will never listen to it again.

Italy`s drift will be mostly down to Ukraine shortening from 1.9 to 1.6-odd; somthing had to give, Italy was one of the sufferers

The reason for Ukraines price into 1.51 could be due to what is perceived as a leak of the results of the semi-final. There was an article by OIKOTIMES with article headed as follows: ON THE SPOT LIVE FROM TURIN EBU calls alleged leaked results as “fake” link here: https://tinyurl.com/3t2tr66h

The leaked voting split 'FAKED' results were given as follows:

JURIES
196 UKRAINE
145 GREECE
130 SWITZERLAND
109 NETHERLANDS
096 PORTUGAL
095 ICELAND
088 LITHUANIA
078 ARMENIA
040 BULGARIA
030 DENMARK
024 AUSTRIA
022 LATVIA
015 NORWAY
014 CROATIA
011 MOLDOVA
006 ALBANIA
004 SLOVENIA


PUBLIC
205 UKRAINE
148 NORWAY
136 MOLDOVA
106 ALBANIA
090 LATVIA
088 AUSTRIA
074 BULGARIA
050 ARMENIA
039 NETHERLANDS
038 GREECE
032 PORTUGAL
028 LITHUANIA
024 CROATIA
020 ICELAND
013 DENMARK
009 SLOVENIA
000 SWITZERLAND



Obviously the results leaked above are faked. We will all know what the real results are when they are revealed after the final on saturday night.

Highly doubtful Ukraine beat Greece in Jury vote....