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armagnac
24 Nov 20 10:19
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 55,753 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
deserves her own thread at this stage (2nd fav 6.80)
having been pretty much in the background, the last 3 edits she's received moderate production help. lots of close ups, involved in a lot of scenes and a fair bit of narration.
that reduced her odds somewhat but whats projected her back to single figures is a hatchet job on shane, and the 1st b1tch session of the series he had with vernon.

like Mo i cant see her doing much wrong but from a winning point of view, Gio seems to have a bigger selection of gears to choose from. Mo has had some good clips but not enough (at this stage)
9 edits left before the final as saturday will be another highlight show looking back at the 2nd week.

That being said and other front runners not doing enough is Gio timing this run to perfection, plenty of the audience are noticing what a good campmate Gio is becoming.
Jordan shot his bolt and has built up a decent lead but it was hardly a journey, he beat his fears on day 2 pretty much lol
he'd make a worthy winner tbh, says all the right stuff, gives it a go and does well whilst being entertaining. you just get the feeling he's plodding to the line now, and is there to be caught.
he's no harry who had jam roly poy and his wife to push him ever clear.

So the big question is how far will the production take Gio ? i get the feeling her race is only just beginning and she seems to have a full tank with enough gears to get in touching distance of Jordan.
a new dynamic is in transition, a 2nd b1tch session to kill off alfie and vermin probably required then Gio can set sail for Jordan !!
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Report armagnac December 3, 2020 10:23 AM GMT
well given Gio looks a cert for the h2h, jordans support will get tested to the hilt now verses shane and vernon who have massive fanbases.
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 10:34 AM GMT
just watching the daily drop and russell wants Gio to win, now AJ has gone. (no mention of jordan)

jess obviously wants Gio to win
Report bardo December 3, 2020 10:35 AM GMT
if shane in 4th place and vernon in 3rd go out next as the polls suggest then what happens to their support .. who will benefit the most from the vote transfer from their core support  ?

it seems to me that its much more likely that their support would then transfer more to Jordan as the last remaining guy rather than Gio ....and Jordan would then carry forward that extra momentum into the final

that is the big worry for me as a Gio Backer
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 10:41 AM GMT
hard to say, a lot of there support will be middle/older aged horny women...jordan acting like a child wont do much for them, they prefer a man.
its more of an even split for me and jordan has the bigger anti vote
i think Gio wins unless jordan plays up to the camera's which is a highly likely, depending what he does and how fuuny it is to the gullible audience decides who wins.

i think we can debate this till the cows come home, its all on jordans edit for me
Report bardo December 3, 2020 10:51 AM GMT
do you reckon there is still  any realistic chance for either Shane or Vernon ?

wouldn't it be amazing if its vernon who they will actually push for..and Jordan is just a pawn in the game

its not impossible that Vernon is the dark horse ...

as you said its all in the edit..

another thing to bear in mind is this .. having had 4 female winners in the past 5 series will they want a man this time ?
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 10:57 AM GMT
you'd of thought they would want a man yes, vernon has been a bit meh for me so i would be shocked if he were to win. not impossible a conspiracy theory is at hand to push him over the line.
shanes been the show though and as a deserving winner of the 4 its him, thats why the odds are so stupid.
shane has been the full package
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 11:09 AM GMT
AJ on lorraine this morning, the latter pushing her charge

.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAFmJ4UO1yI
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 11:59 AM GMT
vernon got pimp for cyclone
Report LendUsAFiver December 3, 2020 12:12 PM GMT
Surprised to see Jordan doing so well on FB, that place should be full of middle aged women getting behind Gi.

Top comments on the Group photo.
"They're the right final 4. Loved the show! Cant wait!
Jordan to win! Such a nice lad
Report bardo December 3, 2020 12:14 PM GMT
could that be a producers push methinks ! ?
Report LendUsAFiver December 3, 2020 12:14 PM GMT
ok my comment seems to have been cut in half!

ANyway it's:
Jordan 212 likes
Gi 147 likes

Bad for Gi amongst her core support platform.
Report LendUsAFiver December 3, 2020 12:16 PM GMT
Less than £1m matched on this market. Didn't this used to get like £10mill+?
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 12:24 PM GMT
pretty standard sm measures imo
entertainers always attract the louder sm types
quieter nice ones like Gi often dont overshadow these
always be the same always will
Gi support more hidden and harder to gage
when a nice quiet does attract more support like on twitter and the polls then its quite surprising for me, that makes me believe shes smashing the vote, but the bent market tells a different story.


no way does jordan have more hidden vote than Gi
Report Jim Duncan December 3, 2020 12:44 PM GMT
Hi army - could you remind me what Giovanna has done during the past 2½ weeks please.
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 12:45 PM GMT
i also think its virtually impossible to gage individual posts like your trying to do on facebook, its like whoever posts a particular comment might have 5,000 friends associated to them so they see and can react more to the person that posts than the person they are beating the drum for. like a large majority of there 5000 friends, like the person that writes it and just agrees anyway. and in other posts someone might only have a few friends.
how many people actually go out of there way to like a post of someone they dont know ??
its also very easy to like a comment of 'jordan to win' coz you dont like Gi for example...there's just to much randomness to that.

the best gage by far has always been the individual pics we had earlier in the series, where each like is independently scored and works more like a poll.
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 12:51 PM GMT
hello jim, GI has hardly done anything. even her trial was sh1te, when she bottled wearing the hat. plus the group women one was sh1te too when she finished 1st.
shes been nice, a good majority of campmates leaving want her to win so she must of done a lot of pep talks we've not seen.

hth
Report LendUsAFiver December 3, 2020 1:05 PM GMT
If the market is right and Shane goes first then his wingman is going to take at least 80% of his votes imho. You just don't go from voting Shane to Gi.
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 1:06 PM GMT
if the market is to be believed, 80% of not a lot
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 1:08 PM GMT
and most definitely shanes wingman is vernon
Report LendUsAFiver December 3, 2020 1:08 PM GMT
wasn't the swing less than 1% last year? If Shane is getting just 10% of votes, then 80% of that is 800% more than last years swing.
Report bearcub December 3, 2020 1:16 PM GMT
If the market is to be believed it's maybe around

Jordan 32%
Gi  28%
Vernon 23%
Shane 17%
Report bardo December 3, 2020 1:27 PM GMT
of the 4 remaining contestants who would you say is the most well known ?

in terms of TV and media over the years and the amount of shows he has been on and presented in the last 20 years  I would argue that its Vernon Kay

after that I would say its Shane Ritchie

I had never heard of either Giovanna or Jordan before this

which contestant has contributed most to the series .. i would say hands down its Shane
Report Splinun1 December 3, 2020 3:16 PM GMT
Shane at 20/1

Agree with Bardo, on what I’ve seen Shane should be fav. Dirty money IMO, yes I get he’s polling badly.

All in the last two edits IMO, the casuals will decide who win.

Besides, DS poll goes against all the others I’ve seen.
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 3:24 PM GMT
lets not forget the market got last years h2h wrong or was that manipulation
plough andy down and let the sheep do the rest
andy hit 1.12, then a very late drift out to 1.31
as the sheep are keeping it down, the manipulator is ploughing into jossa and laying the 1.12
Report GAZO December 3, 2020 3:31 PM GMT
last year didnt jossa have marriage problems that started coming out in the last few days
Report bardo December 3, 2020 3:40 PM GMT
Fwiw... Ive been scrolling through thousands upon thousands of facebook comments

If truth be told, and i hate to admit it ... it seems that Jordan is very popular overall ... of  the 4 left  , there were far more Jordan to win comments than any other contestant

it seems pretty close between Jordan and Gio ...although almost  all the twitter polls one seen have Giovanna winning with about 45 % of the vote ..thats from about 20 different polls with about 3000 or so people sampled

I think its pretty clear that Shane will be next out followed by Vernon in 3rd place... anything else would be a huge shock .

Surely the fact that Gio has 1.6 million followers on Instagram, plus her celebrity friends banging the drum for her is going to be enough to get her over the line .?

Has Jordan been that entertaining ?.. I dont think so




Surely the fact that she has
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 3:43 PM GMT
GAZO

it was well known before the series to most
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 3:48 PM GMT
true bardo, but Gi fans are not gonna bang a massive drum for her..yeah shes nice, that doesn't generate support on sm
whereas jordan acting like a gimp, will get people howling and typing.
serial posters in there hundreds can make someone appear extremely popular and unbeatable, i wouldn't read that much into it

jordan has the last two edits massively in his favour, thats the worry.
Gi wont do a lot but he will act the clown

if jordans edits are average, Gi wins
if jordans edits are entertaining and hilarious he wins

simples
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 3:52 PM GMT
jordan is nailed on to making the journey speech saying how this has cured all his fears and anxiety's
the desperation in the greedy fecker getting one more trial the last 3 days tells a worrying story of someone desperate to win.
someone who knows the game
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 3:57 PM GMT
what you gotta ask yourselves is, how many has fallen for his act ?
usually enough of the audience, this is why i always lose in these situations, more than i can remember
apparently hes genuine lol, really ?
Gi is the genuine one and being herself, just not entertaining

im holding firm, my book remains the same as posted
but i think jordan wins these last two edits
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 4:05 PM GMT
and if we could get the winner of likes off a sm comment we'd all be very rich by now
polls tend to be reliable if not hacked, but thats all too easy these days as well
im guessing a lot of Gi's hardcore support are to busy wiping arses, feeding and running around after there sprogs Laugh
Report bardo December 3, 2020 4:09 PM GMT
It begs the question... Has Vernon Kay not been as entertaining as Jordan

If anything one could argue Vernon has provided just as many laughs and been a part of as many daft moments as Jordan has

plus Vernon has that down to earth good northern lad thing going on .

so why is Jordan more popular ?
Report Lifter December 3, 2020 4:10 PM GMT

Dec 3, 2020 -- 9:57AM, armagnac wrote:


what you gotta ask yourselves is, how many has fallen for his act ?usually enough of the audience, this is why i always lose in these situations, more than i can remember apparently hes genuine lol, really ?Gi is the genuine one and being herself, just not entertaining im holding firm, my book remains the same as postedbut i think jordan wins these last two edits


Yup! The audience is a lot more gullible than we tend to believe. I make that mistake every year

Report Lifter December 3, 2020 4:13 PM GMT

Dec 3, 2020 -- 10:09AM, bardo wrote:


It begs the question... Has Vernon Kay not been as entertaining as JordanIf anything one could argue Vernon has provided just as many laughs and been a part of as many daft moments as Jordan hasplus Vernon has that down to earth good northern lad thing going on .so why is Jordan more popular ?


Honestly, if I hadn't looked at the odds then I would have the market the other way round.

Vernon has played a blinder AND he's the most famous person there.

Report armagnac December 3, 2020 4:13 PM GMT
jordan is more popular bardo coz he's more endearing
Report bardo December 3, 2020 5:30 PM GMT
take this with a grain of salt ...

https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1368005/Im-A-Celebrity-Jordan-North-win-Vernon-Kay-runner-up-instagram-followers-data-itv-video
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 5:58 PM GMT
jordans mum was radio 1 earlier, grimmy show. big push from them
Report Splinun1 December 3, 2020 6:21 PM GMT
To be fair, Radio 1 pushed Adele last year, where did she get? Dead last
Report Splinun1 December 3, 2020 6:22 PM GMT
If there is an insider, we sure it’s not going for Vernon? Everyday his price is trickling down, has a good edit, rises back up only to repeat again?
Report bardo December 3, 2020 6:35 PM GMT
there is a lot of love for vernon on SM
Report Splinun1 December 3, 2020 6:45 PM GMT
Agreed Bardo, people like Shane, Gi and Jordan but people LOVE Vernon.

I don’t think anyone winning would be a shock if I’m honest, as said before today and tomorrow’s edits win IMO. Shane and Vernon are also easier to market for shows over Jordan and Gi too.
Report bardo December 3, 2020 7:08 PM GMT
Digital Spy forum has a poll up .... Final 4 ..who do you want to win ..

Vernon wins more than 50 %... from 206 people voting

https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2396068/final-4-who-do-you-want-to-win

could just be an outlier..... hope not .... Perhaps vernon is more popular than we know.

But i think Digital Spy isn't a bad barometer of public opinion .. its basically the age  18 to 40 audience who watch the show
Report armagnac December 3, 2020 7:13 PM GMT
DS are appalling, your'll be lucky if they have more than a 10% strike record for final polls
Report Jim Duncan December 4, 2020 12:52 PM GMT
Gio had an excellent show last night - she read the scroll Plain
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 12:54 PM GMT
jim 'tedious' duncan had a great post just now Plain
Report LendUsAFiver December 4, 2020 3:03 PM GMT
Gi fans should stay the hell away from Instagram!
Report bardo December 4, 2020 3:18 PM GMT
explain ?
Report LendUsAFiver December 4, 2020 3:54 PM GMT
_toon_sammy_2
top comment !How is giovanna not out!
17h
415 likes
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 6:49 PM GMT
Gi still got one play of reach left i believe ?
Report Splinun1 December 4, 2020 6:56 PM GMT
Yes, was thinking about that earlier...

Playing some songs is about the only personality she has. Surprised her ‘Love song’ didn’t come on during the pub night.
Report bardo December 4, 2020 7:23 PM GMT
Ive just been looking at the instagram stats for the final 3

If you look at their last ten photos that all 3 of them have posted up of themselves on the show then its pretty conclusive who has by far the biggest audience

here are the aggregate likes of the last ten photos posted on IG

Giovanna  3,077,000... yes thats right over 3 million likes... but beat in mind she has 1.6 million followers

Jordan  352,427.... almost 90 % less than her.. but then again he only has 319K followers

Vernon  806, 863

if truth be told Jordan doesn't seem to be that well known... I doubt many casuals who tune in tonight will have even seen him before
Report bardo December 4, 2020 8:02 PM GMT
if things continue like this Jordan is gonna be 2/1 pretty soon.. currently 2.8  !

what price do you reckon they might be just before the winner is announced ?
Report Splinun1 December 4, 2020 8:13 PM GMT
Here’s the big push. Reckon when 1st voting is closed she’ll be 1.5, more convinced over the last few hours it’s GSM
Report Splinun1 December 4, 2020 8:15 PM GMT
(I hate to say it)
Report Lifter December 4, 2020 8:19 PM GMT
There we go.. Gio 1.64 and Jordan 3.3
Report bardo December 4, 2020 8:19 PM GMT
all of a sudden its looking very good for Gio backers innit ..Happy
Report bardo December 4, 2020 8:20 PM GMT
WOW !!Surprised
Report Lifter December 4, 2020 8:20 PM GMT
Insiders piling on
Report bardo December 4, 2020 8:21 PM GMT
what else could it be !  ?
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 8:22 PM GMT
andy hit 1.11 and got beat dont forget
Report Lifter December 4, 2020 8:23 PM GMT
It's arguable that she should have been this price all day, but yeah, I duno why the sudden surge
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 8:23 PM GMT
but im 100% Gio wins, support on another level and tons of it hidden
Report bardo December 4, 2020 8:25 PM GMT
thats an awful lot of market movement considering the final doesn't even start on TV until 9 pm.Surprised
Report GAZO December 4, 2020 8:28 PM GMT
somebody can either see how the votes are going or the polls are very big in gio's favour
Report bardo December 4, 2020 8:33 PM GMT
Or else someone knows that Vernon is going to win and is going for the jugular !!!Wink

it wouldn't surprise me in the least
Report bardo December 4, 2020 8:35 PM GMT
remember that Jossa came from nowhere last year
Report cool_hand_luke December 4, 2020 8:36 PM GMT
HI am expecting Jordan's price to reduce to around 2.5 within the hour, not saying he will win but its expected to happen. Stand by for the surge.
Report Splinun1 December 4, 2020 8:37 PM GMT
Worth noting that during the last hour and a half it’s only been £20k bet on this market, think it hit £1million at 7pm. Doesn’t take huge sums of money to move it at all!
Report Splinun1 December 4, 2020 8:42 PM GMT
Also if Jordan does go 1st, any idea on odds for Gio? 1.15-1.2 sound right?
Report bardo December 4, 2020 8:45 PM GMT
I will run down the street naked if Vernon wins !
Report the old nanny ;-) December 4, 2020 10:33 PM GMT
Happy
Report Jim Duncan December 4, 2020 11:03 PM GMT
...well done army - hope you won plenty Happy
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 11:05 PM GMT
cheers Jim, see you on the SPOTY thread im about to make
Report timbuctooth December 4, 2020 11:12 PM GMT
Ronnie?
Report bardo December 4, 2020 11:13 PM GMT
cheers for all the banter back and forth the last few days Army

Great to hear that you made a few quid too !
Report armagnac December 4, 2020 11:59 PM GMT
nice one bardo, well recovered
feck knows how she won it, im still in shock tbh
12 million votes, looks like a good portion of the audience did see through jordan in the end. i did get that feeling with a lot of the campers as well.
Report Lifter December 5, 2020 4:12 AM GMT
Nice work Army! Enjoyed your thoughts during the last few weeks Cool

Not so good for me, but there are plenty of specials coming up!
Report know all December 5, 2020 10:28 AM GMT
well done winners she was the most boring to ever win it but big campaigns behind her winner by default, not had a penny on win market laying shane at 7/2 was my banker
Report armagnac December 5, 2020 11:54 AM GMT
cheers lifter, yes this forum come alive during IAC..lets keep it that way, more thoughts better for us all long term.
well done know all, the bulk of the public never took to shane
Report keano712 December 5, 2020 1:49 PM GMT
Army all that research and we never knew gio was the sister of mario falcone of only way is essex and big brother contestant?
Report armagnac December 5, 2020 1:57 PM GMT
sure i posted it somewhere in the endless threads/posts lol
Report armagnac December 5, 2020 2:03 PM GMT
actually i may not of, at the time i didn't think it was that important or newsworthy with TOWIE not being that amazing imo anyway but yeah did spot it keano.
what annoyed me most, i knew Gio was popular but didn't know to what extent until the final day, and literally just after she went 8/11 from 11/8. for her to beat a casual 12 million viewers being that dull proved how strong her support was, some achievement and makes future RTV events harder to call.
Report armagnac December 5, 2020 2:06 PM GMT
this was actually a digital campaign that went on under our noses
Report timbuctooth December 5, 2020 3:31 PM GMT
You did post it, I remember thanking you for telling me stuff I hadn`t known
Report armagnac December 5, 2020 4:34 PM GMT
ok tim, cheers Cool
Report armagnac December 5, 2020 4:35 PM GMT
now you mention it, i remember you commenting
Report keano712 December 5, 2020 6:45 PM GMT
Not that it matters in the bigger scheme of things, she had no right to be in with shout with the strength of anything she done in the camp compared to others, as you say army it just changes the approach in the future to the point watching it is of no advantage which is all wrong
Report armagnac December 5, 2020 7:19 PM GMT
its a worry yes, but can we give her celebrity friends all the credit ?
im not so sure, jordan did play the perfect game and said all the right things that usually assures an easy win but as many of us saw through it as we do every time. you have to ask, are the majority of these audience's catching up ? most of the campmates who left wasn't that fussed with him winning and some never game him a mention. i think he done a lot more in camp that was never shown, to try and grab the airtime.

i'd like to think these game players, especially the blatant ones have had there day. its not hard to see who's being genuine and being themselves.
Report Lifter December 5, 2020 8:55 PM GMT
I've never fully been convinced by the "it's won in the house/camp". It's often a bit of both, although this time was mainly the outside which won it.
Report the whizz kids December 5, 2020 10:45 PM GMT
Well done all that stuck with Gio. I was dead against her from the start and when she hit 16s I posted what terrible value she was. Half way through things were starting to come together for her and thankfully I backed her from 5s down.
A very boring winner to say the least and definitely won by the yummy mummies.
No doubt we will see her forever more on TV now but I don't mind considering the amount of food she's put on my table.

A massive shout to Army and Bardo for some very useful info posted.

Does anyone know when the vote percentages come out??
Report armagnac December 5, 2020 11:41 PM GMT
cheers Whizz, i think its tomorrow usually
Report bardo December 6, 2020 11:49 AM GMT
does anybody know what the vote percentages were in the IAC final ??

would be interesting to see if the polls were spot on
Report BETED December 15, 2020 8:17 AM GMT
Giovanni 50.27
Jordan 49.73
Report BETED December 15, 2020 8:21 AM GMT
Third place freeze
Giovanni 39.45%
Jordan 34.06 %
Vernon 26.50

Jordan gained a lot of ground when the vote reopened
Report BETED December 15, 2020 8:23 AM GMT
Sorry I’m missing % in places, just woke up
Report the whizz kids December 15, 2020 9:43 AM GMT
Wow, that's close. Roughly 60,000 votes in it.
Report armagnac December 15, 2020 9:53 AM GMT
yep, the baby clubs and non watchers that were reportedly voting for her regardless got her over the line.
jordans journey and jokes were robbed it seems, this changes future shows forever.
this was not won 'in the house' as they say, local support won, over the viewer.
Report armagnac December 15, 2020 9:55 AM GMT
a show that had 11 million viewers as well, probably explains why some big brother and other lesser viewed shows winners were able to win and dumbfound even the greatest of this forum. (im talking about me obvs)
Report armagnac December 15, 2020 9:59 AM GMT
saying that im the most vocal on here regarding 'hidden support' so next time, do yourself a christmas favour and listen to army innit.
ho ho ho
Report the whizz kids December 15, 2020 10:47 AM GMT
Those 3rd place polls were bang on.
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